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New Gilliam Ratings

GilliamRatings

VaPreps All State
Jun 5, 2001
7,609
317
83
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Orange, Virginia
Alright. I'm going to try to restart the Gilliam Ratings. I am starting fresh with the 2014 season. After the 2014 season I will try to go back and get previous seasons calculated, but I don't want to get bogged down in messing with those seasons. So I have a formula I used (based on how well a team did the past few seasons) to get us some starting ratings. I don't really think these pre-season ratings tell us anything except how good a team has been in the past. So, please don't get to screaming and shouting about these. After a team has played three games I like to think the ratings start to be significant. I'm probably going to write a little column each week about these ratings, and simply publish them. I won't be doing a whole lot of statistics with them this year. I just want to make sure they work, then I can automate hundreds of pages of info next year.

Real quick, if you weren't around when I used to do these. These ratings are not designed to tell who should get in the playoffs, they are designed to make PREDICTIONS about the outcome of future games. I found that historically they pick the correct winner in 5 out of every 6 games (after week three--nowhere near as well until then). The way they work is pretty simple (though the details of the formula get a little complicated). If two teams are playing, look at their rating. The team with the higher rating should beat the team with the lower rating by the difference in the ratings. Once the game is played an adjustment is made. If a team plays better than the formula predicted their rating will go up, if they played worse their rating will go down. There are all sorts of tweaks to this (for instance, if a team is favored by 70 and only wins by 50, we're not going to lower their rating for refusing to run-up the score), but that's pretty much it.

Anyway, I will always post these ratings on Virginia Preps first, and then on my own website a few hours later. My ratings used to drive a lot of traffic and this is my way to say thanks to these guys for all they do.

So without further ado, here are the preseason ratings(the number in parenthesis is the teams class:

103.80 Oscar Smith ( 6 )
96.92 L.C. Bird ( 5 )
96.36 Ocean Lakes ( 6 )
96.30 Briar Woods ( 5 )
94.97 Centreville ( 6 )
92.52 Westfield ( 6 )
89.74 Yorktown ( 6 )
89.60 Lake Braddock ( 6 )
88.72 Stone Bridge ( 5 )
88.64 C.D. Hylton ( 6 )
86.34 Colonial Forge ( 6 )
84.34 Phoebus ( 4 )
84.32 Varina ( 6 )
83.84 Grassfield ( 6 )
83.15 Hermitage ( 5 )
81.97 Battlefield ( 6 )
81.76 Salem(VB) ( 5 )
80.85 North Stafford ( 5 )
79.67 Bayside ( 6 )
79.20 Lake Taylor ( 4 )
79.05 South County ( 6 )
78.36 Massaponax ( 5 )
78.13 Western Branch ( 6 )
77.38 Dinwiddie ( 4 )
77.18 Cosby(C) ( 6 )
76.92 Tuscarora ( 5 )
76.42 Salem ( 4 )
75.98 Langley ( 6 )
75.98 Patrick Henry(R) ( 6 )
75.50 Woodside ( 6 )
75.35 Oakton ( 6 )
75.10 Broad Run ( 5 )
74.66 Hampton ( 5 )
74.11 James Robinson ( 6 )
73.34 Chantilly ( 6 )
73.34 Stonewall Jackson(M) ( 6 )
73.08 Highland Springs ( 5 )
72.71 Hayfield ( 6 )
72.71 Woodbridge ( 6 )
72.65 Atlee ( 5 )
72.38 Bethel ( 6 )
71.61 Frank Cox ( 6 )
71.56 James Monroe ( 3 )
71.48 Sherando ( 4 )
71.42 Northside ( 3 )
70.99 Fairfax ( 6 )
70.70 Patriot ( 6 )
70.63 Meadowbrook ( 5 )
70.49 Mountain View ( 5 )
70.41 Thomas Dale ( 6 )
69.68 Manchester ( 5 )
69.60 Washington-Lee ( 6 )
69.47 Courtland ( 4 )
69.02 Franklin County ( 6 )
68.21 T.C. Williams ( 6 )
67.29 West Potomac ( 6 )
67.24 Brookville ( 3 )
67.01 Osbourn ( 6 )
67.01 Forest Park ( 6 )
66.38 McLean ( 6 )
66.28 Heritage(Lyn) ( 3 )
66.07 Riverheads ( 2 )
66.06 Hanover ( 4 )
65.76 Granby ( 6 )
65.69 Douglas Freeman ( 5 )
65.69 Mills Godwin ( 5 )
65.23 Lafayette ( 3 )
65.15 Norcom ( 4 )
65.01 GW-Danville ( 4 )
65.01 Liberty(Beal) ( 4 )
64.97 Giles ( 2 )
64.66 Kecoughtan ( 6 )
64.27 Magna Vista ( 3 )
64.20 Goochland ( 2 )
63.89 Landstown ( 6 )
63.50 Monticello ( 3 )
63.27 James Madison ( 6 )
63.27 James River(C) ( 6 )
62.91 Green Run ( 5 )
62.50 Riverbend ( 6 )
62.29 Lee-Davis ( 5 )
61.89 Powhatan ( 4 )
61.87 West Springfield ( 6 )
61.26 Loudoun County ( 4 )
61.25 South Lakes ( 6 )
61.25 First Colonial ( 6 )
61.05 Christiansburg ( 3 )
60.98 Eastern View ( 4 )
60.82 Osbourn Park ( 6 )
60.58 Western Albemarle ( 3 )
60.35 King George ( 4 )
59.89 Wilson Memorial ( 2 )
59.81 Central(W) ( 3 )
59.65 Maury ( 5 )
59.49 Woodgrove ( 4 )
59.39 Heritage(NN) ( 4 )
58.90 Kettle Run ( 3 )
58.78 Richlands ( 2 )
58.50 King William ( 2 )
58.40 Brooke Point ( 5 )
58.34 Amherst County ( 4 )
58.18 Tallwood ( 6 )
57.95 Essex ( 1 )
57.84 Gar-Field ( 6 )
57.41 W.T. Woodson ( 6 )
57.30 Potomac ( 5 )
57.10 Buckingham County ( 2 )
57.01 Deep Run ( 5 )
56.95 Handley ( 4 )
56.90 Altavista ( 1 )
56.80 Kings Fork ( 4 )
56.72 Great Bridge ( 5 )
56.24 Matoaca ( 5 )
55.71 Clarke County ( 2 )
55.29 Clover Hill ( 5 )
55.15 Warren County ( 3 )
55.14 Falls Church ( 5 )
55.14 Kellam ( 5 )
55.08 Fauquier ( 4 )
55.06 Stafford ( 6 )
55.02 Franklin ( 1 )
54.71 Thomas Edison ( 5 )
54.53 Poquoson ( 3 )
54.39 Park View(SH) ( 3 )
54.32 Gretna ( 2 )
54.16 Churchland ( 4 )
53.69 Smithfield ( 4 )
53.62 Stuarts Draft ( 3 )
53.40 Harrisonburg ( 4 )
53.15 Clintwood ( 1 )
52.85 Loudoun Valley ( 3 )
52.70 Thomas Jefferson(A) ( 5 )
52.70 Norview ( 5 )
52.67 Fort Chiswell ( 1 )
52.58 Jefferson Forest ( 4 )
52.50 Mount Vernon ( 5 )
52.14 Annandale ( 6 )
51.97 Dan River ( 2 )
51.91 Honaker ( 1 )
51.53 Chancellor ( 4 )
51.46 York ( 3 )
51.46 Cave Spring ( 3 )
51.30 Potomac Falls ( 5 )
51.19 Louisa ( 4 )
50.97 R.E. Lee(S) ( 5 )
50.97 Prince George ( 5 )
50.90 Tabb ( 4 )
50.69 Liberty(Bed) ( 3 )
50.68 Hickory ( 5 )
50.42 Grafton ( 4 )
50.34 Albemarle ( 5 )
50.21 Lord Botetourt ( 3 )
49.72 Henrico ( 5 )
49.72 Union ( 2 )
49.58 Warwick ( 5 )
49.46 Sussex Central ( 1 )
49.21 Herndon ( 6 )
49.12 Lunenburg ( 1 )
49.11 Spotswood ( 3 )
49.11 William Byrd ( 3 )
48.98 George Wythe(W) ( 1 )
48.67 J.E.B. Stuart ( 5 )
48.60 Monacan ( 4 )
48.27 Denbigh ( 4 )
48.13 R.E. Lee(ST) ( 2 )
48.06 Hidden Valley ( 3 )
47.56 Patrick Henry(A) ( 5 )
47.35 Pulaski County ( 4 )
46.97 J.I. Burton ( 1 )
46.87 Dominion ( 4 )
46.49 Haysi ( 1 )
46.39 Lakeland ( 4 )
46.19 Skyline ( 3 )
46.12 Brunswick ( 2 )
46.11 Jamestown ( 4 )
45.71 Fort Defiance ( 3 )
45.69 Orange ( 5 )
45.63 E.C. Glass ( 4 )
45.63 Nansemond River ( 4 )
45.56 Hopewell ( 3 )
45.56 Tunstall ( 3 )
45.48 Millbrook ( 4 )
45.35 John Battle ( 2 )
45.26 Kempsville ( 5 )
45.08 Broadway ( 3 )
44.92 Indian River ( 5 )
44.72 Midlothian ( 4 )
43.96 Appomattox ( 2 )
43.95 Booker T. Washingto ( 4 )
43.87 Freedom ( 5 )
43.82 Grayson County ( 2 )
43.63 Gate City ( 2 )
43.61 Bassett ( 4 )
43.55 Rockbridge County ( 3 )
43.39 Freedom(R) ( 5 )
43.39 Menchville ( 5 )
43.10 East Rockingham ( 2 )
42.77 Halifax County ( 5 )
42.64 Manassas Park ( 3 )
42.51 Galax ( 1 )
42.41 Heritage(Le) ( 4 )
42.38 Bruton ( 2 )
42.30 Rustburg ( 3 )
42.22 J.R. Tucker ( 4 )
42.08 Caroline ( 4 )
42.00 Wakefield ( 5 )
41.79 Carroll County ( 4 )
41.52 Gloucester ( 5 )
41.45 Charlottesville ( 4 )
40.16 Glen Allen ( 4 )
40.15 Covington ( 1 )
40.14 Alleghany ( 3 )
40.08 Amelia County ( 2 )
40.01 West Point ( 1 )
39.79 Virginia ( 2 )
39.45 Marion ( 2 )
39.30 James Wood ( 4 )
39.02 Nandua ( 2 )
39.01 Park View(St) ( 4 )
38.75 Staunton River ( 3 )
38.54 Strasburg ( 2 )
38.19 William Fleming ( 4 )
38.00 Washington & Lee ( 1 )
37.98 Warhill ( 3 )
37.92 Glenvar ( 2 )
37.77 Graham ( 2 )
37.44 James River(B) ( 2 )
37.35 George Marshall ( 5 )
37.29 Nottoway ( 2 )
36.93 Petersburg ( 3 )
36.93 Turner Ashby ( 3 )
36.74 Abingdon ( 3 )
36.03 Fluvanna ( 4 )
36.03 Deep Creek ( 4 )
35.67 Princess Anne ( 5 )
35.20 John Marshall ( 3 )
34.88 Chilhowie ( 1 )
34.22 Lebanon ( 2 )
34.11 Radford ( 1 )
33.82 Rappahannock ( 1 )
33.74 Madison County ( 2 )
33.67 Southampton ( 3 )
33.33 Blacksburg ( 3 )
33.04 William Monroe ( 3 )
32.29 Parry McCluer ( 1 )
32.29 Holston ( 1 )
31.87 Floyd County ( 2 )
31.39 Grundy ( 2 )
31.09 Eastside ( 1 )
30.82 Arcadia ( 2 )
30.42 Colonial Beach ( 1 )
30.40 Culpeper County ( 3 )
30.26 Armstrong ( 3 )
30.08 Hurley ( 1 )
30.08 Rural Retreat ( 1 )
29.79 Lancaster ( 1 )
29.56 Woodrow Wilson ( 4 )
29.43 Randolph-Henry ( 2 )
29.30 Spotsylvania ( 3 )
29.09 Chatham ( 2 )
28.95 Luray ( 2 )
27.84 George Mason ( 2 )
27.84 Lee ( 2 )
27.78 Bath County ( 1 )
27.41 Buffalo Gap ( 2 )
27.41 Martinsville ( 2 )
26.45 Windsor ( 2 )
26.23 Thomas Jefferson(R) ( 3 )
25.75 New Kent ( 3 )
25.18 John Champe ( 3 )
24.98 Huguenot ( 3 )
24.52 Middlesex ( 1 )
24.37 Castlewood ( 1 )
24.23 Northwood ( 1 )
24.01 Greensville ( 2 )
23.45 Colonial Heights ( 3 )
22.98 Surry ( 1 )
22.84 Eastern Montgomery ( 1 )
22.70 Twin Springs ( 1 )
22.68 Waynesboro ( 3 )
22.62 Stonewall Jackson(Q) ( 2 )
22.14 Wise Central ( 2 )
22.06 Patrick County ( 3 )
21.93 Northumberland ( 1 )
21.51 Tazewell ( 2 )
21.23 Bluestone ( 2 )
20.82 Mathews ( 1 )
20.19 Brentsville ( 3 )
20.19 George Wythe(R) ( 3 )
19.10 William Campbell ( 1 )
19.10 Craig County ( 1 )
19.02 Prince Edward ( 2 )
18.95 Charles City ( 1 )
18.04 Auburn ( 1 )
17.90 Rye Cove ( 1 )
17.48 Nelson County ( 2 )
17.27 Thomas Walker ( 1 )
16.43 Page ( 2 )
15.26 Twin Valley ( 1 )
14.49 Patrick Henry(GS) ( 1 )
14.01 Narrows ( 1 )
13.53 Cumberland ( 1 )
8.93 Bland(RG) ( 1 )
7.54 King & Queen ( 1 )
6.43 Northampton ( 1 )
4.42 Rappahannock Count ( 1 )
 
It will be interesting to see how your rating plays out. I watched them for a few years before you quit doing them. Good luck.
 
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