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Trending the 2015 4A Champion

CRF4Dan

Richmond Region Football Writer
Staff
Dec 17, 2012
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Mechanicsville, VA
We are always looking for ways to determine what will happen in sports. It's not enough just to go by coaches or the players a team has returning, we need more. Especially at a time like this when there isn't much to talk about regarding say high school football as the school year quickly comes to a close and we have two months before practices begin... So let's do it, let's talk trends...

Unlike 5A and 6A, 4A is the most balance of classes as far as determining where the next state champion comes from...
7 champions in 4A reached only the first round the year before winning a state title.
7 champions reached only the second round the year before winning a state title.
7 champions won a state title the year before winning again.

So where does that leave us?

Well for starters,
Great Bridge, Churchland, Smithfield, Grafton, Charlottesville, Loudoun, Pulaski, Fauquier, Dominion, James Wood, William Fleming, Huguenot and Kettle Run all have a shot at winning a state title being as they were ousted in the first round last year.

You can also look to schools such as Dinwiddie, Hanover, Woodgrove, Eastern View, Sherando, Courtland, John Champe, Kings Fork, Heritage(Newport News), George Washington, Jefferson Forest and Loudoun Valley... Why? Because these schools did not make it past the second or third round and since before 2013 there were only four rounds, I will combine the second and third rounds into one round.

Then there is Lake Taylor who won last year and statistically has just as good a chance as the schools just mentioned above.

If you reached the state final but lost, lost in the state semifinal or even the third round(granted we've only had the third round for two years), then the odds are not in your favor as they have won only once respectively... This is bad news for schools such as Kings Fork, Heritage(Newport News), George Washington, Jefferson Forest, Loudoun Valley, Liberty(Bealeton) and Monacan.

Last two seasons, the eventual champion never reached the state semifinal the year before.

There have been six multiple champions in 4A with Salem with the most wins, 6 state titles.

The six multiple champions have combined for 19 of the 29 4A Titles.

Of the 16 schools to win championships in 4A, only 7 remain; Salem, Amherst, Dinwiddie, Lafayette, Lake Taylor, Park View(Sterling) and Powhatan.

With the exception of Dinwiddie; Salem, Amherst, Broad Run and Briar Woods all repeated as champions since 2004. Lake Taylor could do so this year.

12 of the last 17 champions won 8 games during the preceding regular season which plays into the favor of Kings Fork, Lake Taylor, Heritage(Newport News), Lafayette, Courtland, Eastern View, Dinwiddie, Monacan, Powhatan, Sherando, Liberty(Bealeton), Jefferson Forest, George Washington, William Fleming and Salem.

There have only been four champions who did not qualify for the playoffs the year before they won it all. The last was Briar Woods in 2010.

15 Championships since 2000 have been won by 9 different schools.

6 of the last 7 champions in 4A had a 27.7 rating or higher the year before winning a state title which plays in the favor of Lafayette, Courtland, Eastern View, Jefferson Forest, Liberty(Bealeton, Salem, Sherando, George Washington, Heritage(Newport News), Kings Fork, Lake Taylor, Monacan and Powhatan.


Trends are made to be bucked but if these trends hold true, who does it favor the most? Given what we know from above, Lake Taylor is a clear favorite, closely followed by Eastern View, Sherando and Courtland. If you need some other options, look to Dinwiddie, Lafayette and William Fleming.
 
Interesting numbers that obviously took some time and research. Thanks for the effort. Did the way the Playoffs are currently configured play a factor because they're quite different then when it was done by Region?
 
Interesting numbers that obviously took some time and research. Thanks for the effort. Did the way the Playoffs are currently configured play a factor because they're quite different then when it was done by Region?

Not really, all I looked at pertaining to the playoffs was rounds and class. Whether it's regional or sectional had no bearing.
 
Good job, Danny.

It will be interesting to see how Gilliams Rating incorporates LCA. I'm looking forward to his first 2015 ratings.

PS Danny, you've got too much free time on your hands! My gutters need cleaning, the grass needs cutting, the....!
 
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