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2K4's Virginia Class 1A Football Top 25

2kings4

2kings4

VaPreps Rookie
Nov 24, 2016
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Winchester,VA
Class 1A Football Top 25 week 5

1. Riverheads 4-0 vs Stonewall Jackson

2. William Campbell 4-0 vs Parry McCluer

3. West Point 4-0 vs Colonial Beach

4. Sussex 3-1 vs Windsor

5. Essex 3-1 vs Thomas Jefferson

6. Galax 3-1 vs Northside

7. Hurley 4-1 vs Tazewell

8. Narrows 3-1 vs Holston

9. Washington &Lee 4-0 vs Charles City

10. Northumberland 4-0 vs Trinity Episcopal

11. Patrick Henry 4-1 vs Rural Retreat

12. Covington 2-2 vs Nelson Co.

13. George Wythe 3-2 vs Honaker

14. Chilhowie 3-2 vs Virginia High

15. Grundy 2-2 vs Twin Valley

16. Castlewood 3-2 vs Northwood

17. Colonial Beach 2-2 vs West Point

18. Parry McCluer 1-3 vs William Campbell

19. Middlesex 2-2 vs Northampton

20. Rappahannock 1-3 vs Mathews

21. JI Burton 1-4 vs Eastside

22. Honaker 2-2 vs George Wythe

23. Bland-Rocky Gap 2-2 vs Grayson Co

24. Auburn 2-2 vs Fort Chiswell

25. AltaVista 1-4 vs Gretna
 
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Did you say you are running some sort of algorithm to come up with this or is it just subjective? Doesn't matter to me which it is, I am just curious. I don't believe Riverheads, Sussex, Galax, Essex, GW or whoever anyone thinks is the top tier teams are that far from the pack if at all.

I am hopeful Riverheads goes through the regular season undefeated but I think there are 3 more tests with two of them being very good 2A schools for the the Red team.

I can only speculate but I know what I have heard the Sussex has been doing defensively. Amd regardless of the scoreboard in the championship last year, I know that there were a lot of very solid pieces for them to return.

Galax has a strong program because they are committed to their process and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them in Salem. Solid coaching and buy in by the players and community matter.

GW seems to me to have a ton of talent but needs a shade more direction to get refined for the playoff push.

Essex has skill players every year and will compete to the end.

This is the line where some people question records and such of the other teams listed.

William Campbell is a threat now and anyone that believes them to be overrated probably don't want to face them right now.

Is this the year Hurley makes a deep run and challenges the SWVA power teams?

Could WP, CB, or Northumberland handle business in the East?

I love to look at polls and try to understand what the pollster is thinking but there are a ton of questions to answer before any ranking matters. I think this is the most reflective one on the boards of current state and actual games not projected.
 
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I am running a algorithm computer program, similar to the one on vhsl-reference website.

It ranks teams based on each weeks game score and can be simulated after all teams have a connecting game.

I can only plug 31 teams into the simulator. The variables come in to play when a team wins or loses to a team higher than class1. These teams I place a power value on them based on my opinion.

Simulated to the end of regular season it looks like this, I feel it will be pretty accurate compared to the actual playoff pairings.

Region A
1.West Point vs 8.Franklin
2.Sussex Central vs 7.Colonial Beach
3.Essex vs 6.Middlesex
4.Northumberland vs 5.Washington & Lee

Region B
1.Riverheads vs 2.William Campbell

Region C
1.Galax vs 8.Bland
2.Covington vs 7.Rural Retreat
3.Narrows vs 6.Bath Co.
4.GW vs 5.PM

Region D
1.Gundy vs 8.JI Burton
2.PH vs 7.Honaker
3.Hurley vs 6.Thomas Walker
4.Chilhowie vs 5.Castlewood
 
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2kings4 said:
I am running a algorithm computer program, similar to the one on vhsl-reference website.

It ranks teams based on each weeks game score and can be simulated after all teams have a connecting game.

I can only plug 31 teams into the simulator. The variables come in to play when a team wins or loses to a team higher than class1. These teams I place a power value on them based on my opinion.

Simulated to the end of regular season it looks like this, I feel it will be pretty accurate compared to the actual playoff pairings.

Region A
1.West Point vs 8.Franklin
2.Sussex Central vs 7.Colonial Beach
3.Essex vs 6.Middlesex
4.Northumberland vs 5.Washington & Lee

Region B
1.Riverheads vs 2.William Campbell

Region C
1.Galax vs 8.Bland
2.Covington vs 7.Rural Retreat
3.Narrows vs 6.Bath Co.
4.GW vs 5.PM

Region D
1.Gundy vs 8.JI Burton
2.PH vs 7.Honaker
3.Hurley vs 6.Thomas Walker
4.Chilhowie vs 5.Castlewood
Click to expand...

how many teams make the playoffs in Region B? I've heard 4 and I've heard 6
 
Do you have a program that can calculate the power points with just the entry of team wins and losses?
 
6 teams? I can't imagine that makes much sense. If there is 6 you would have two teams in that have yet to win a game this season. The imbalance in number in each region doesn't make sense to me. Especially when you take into account that the East only allowed 12 in the old system, making it much more difficult than the West or any other region other than 4A to get in. Now Region A will somewhat reflect that with 8 out of 16 eligible teams getting in. At least 6A region B is going to have one team get eliminated at the end of the regular season. Allowing everyone in in senseless to me.
 
Just my opinion. If you disagree, you are right and I am wrong. You could take the top 32 teams based on power points. Then divide them up into 4 regions based on geographical area. 8 Eastern most teams, 8 central etc. But do not put them in a region until you know the 32 teams.
I know this is how its done in a couple different states and hasnt changed for 40+ years.
They also do this with enrollment. So if you are borderline 1A or 2A, you will not know which class you are in until playoff teams are announced.
 
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wpsportsdotnet said:
Just my opinion. If you disagree, you are right and I am wrong. You could take the top 32 teams based on power points. Then divide them up into 4 regions based on geographical area. 8 Eastern most teams, 8 central etc. But do not put them in a region until you know the 32 teams.
I know this is how its done in a couple different states and hasnt changed for 40+ years.
They also do this with enrollment. So if you are borderline 1A or 2A, you will not know which class you are in until playoff teams are announced.
Click to expand...

As a stats nerd, I love this approach.
 
I am a fan of this except one caveat, I think whenever the school numbers are done, that should set your classification, not wait until after regular season is over. If that happens, you would have fudging of numbers IMO. But take 32 teams and divide them is a good idea.

I liked the previous system more, sure some teams people would seem as "Not worthy" playoff teams get in, but you also don't have chance that best teams are in one region. And I would imagine a team like Blacksburg last year wouldn't have made it, I know they wouldn't have in the old region format, but they won a championship.

Who knows, maybe the 4 best teams in 1a are Riverheads, William Campbell, Essex, and Sussex and only 1 of them can play in championship, I dont like that idea. The best teams should play for all the marbles
 
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I think they should ask us here on the mssage board. I guarantee you we could make sure the 2 best teams end up playing for a championship
 
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wpsportsdotnet said:
Just my opinion. If you disagree, you are right and I am wrong. You could take the top 32 teams based on power points. Then divide them up into 4 regions based on geographical area. 8 Eastern most teams, 8 central etc. But do not put them in a region until you know the 32 teams.
I know this is how its done in a couple different states and hasnt changed for 40+ years.
They also do this with enrollment. So if you are borderline 1A or 2A, you will not know which class you are in until playoff teams are announced.
Click to expand...
That makes far to much sense for an organization that is known for making decsions that make no sense aka VHSL
 
If you have 5 teams you have play in game between 4 & 5 winner would play 1 , 1,2 & 3 would be idle first weekend
 
Based off this which seems very accurate yo what may happen. I think this is what the playoffs might look like.
Region A
1.West Point vs 8.Franklin
2.Sussex Central vs 7.Colonial Beach
3.Essex vs 6.Middlesex
4.Northumberland vs 5.Washington & Lee

1.WP vs 5.WL
2.Sussex vs 3.Essex

1. WP vs 3.Essex
Region Winner Essex

Region B
1.Riverheads vs 2.William Campbell
Region winner RH regardless of opponent

Region C
1.Galax vs 8.Bland
2.Covington vs 7.Rural Retreat
3.Narrows vs 6.Bath Co.
4.GW vs 5.PM

1.Galax vs 4.GW
2.Covington vs 3. Narrows

1.Galax vs 3.Narrows

1.Galax Region C winner

Region D
1.Gundy vs 8.JI Burton
2.PH vs 7.Honaker
3.Hurley vs 6.Thomas Walker
4.Chilhowie vs 5.Castlewood

1.Gundy vs 4.Chilhowie
2.PH vs 3.Hurley

4.Chilhowie vs 2.PH
4.Chilhowie Region D winner

3.Essex vs 1.RH
RH to Salem

1.Galax vs 4.Chilhowie
Galax to Salem

Championship Game in Salem
Galax vs RH
Champions RH
 
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I tweaked my program to combine all 49 teams listed on VHSL for class 1A football.

I added a power points system to give the most accurate ranking to each team.

This is for the first five weeks of season and is not a prediction of how the season will end.

R PP Region Team W/L Next Opponent

1. 6.75B William Campbell 4-0 vs Parry McCluer

2. 6.50B Riverheads 4-0 vs Stonewall Jackson

3. 5.75C Galax 3-1 vs Northside 3A

4. 5.50A Washington & Lee 4-0 vs Charles City

5. 5.00A West Point 4-0 vs Colonial Beach

6. 5.00A Northumberland 4-0 vs Trinity Episcopal

7. 4.60D Hurley 4-1 vs Tazewell 2A

8. 4.25A Sussex Central 3-1 vs Windsor

9. 4.25A Essex 3-1 vs Thomas Jefferson 3A

10. 4.20D Patrick Henry 4-1 vs Rural Retreat

11. 4.00C Narrows 3-1 vs Holston

12. 3.80C George Wythe 3-2 vs Honaker

13. 3.75C Covington 2-2 vs Nelson Co. 2A

14. 3.50D Grundy 2-2 vs Twin Valley

15. 3.20D Chilhowie 3-2 vs Virginia High 2A

16. 3.00A Colonial Beach 2-2 vs West Point

17. 3.00D Castlewood 3-2 vs Northwood

18. 2.75D Honaker 2-2 vs George Wythe

19. 2.75C Parry McCluer 1-3 vs William Campbell

20. 2.50A Middlesex 2-2 vs Northampton

21. 2.50A Chincoteague 2-2 vs Broadwater Academy

22. 2.50C Bland-Rocky Gap 2-2 vs Grayson Co. 2A

23. 2.20D Holston 2-3 vs Narrows

24. 2.20C Auburn 2-3 vs Fort Chiswell 2A

25. 2.20D Northwood 2-3 vs Castlewood

26. 2.20D Thomas Walker 2-3 vs Pikeville

27. 2.00B AltaVista 1-4 vs Gretna 2A

28. 2.00A Northampton 2-3 vs Middlesex

29. 2.00D Twin Valley 2-3 vs Grundy

30. 1.80B Rappahannock Co. 2-3 vs Madison Co. 2A

31. 1.75D JI Bourton 1-3 vs Eastside

32. 1.75A Franklin 1-3 vs Surry Co.

33. 1.75A Rappahannock 1-3 vs Mathews

34. 1.75D Eastside 1-3 vs JI Burton

35. 1.75A Charles City 1-3 vs Washington & Lee

36. 1.75C Rural Retreat 1-3 vs Patrick Henry

37. 1.50A Surry Co.1-3 vs Franklin

38. 1.50C Bath Co. 1-3 vs Pocahontas

39. 1.50A Lancaster 1-3 vs John Paul the Great 2A

40. 1.10B Central–Lunenburg 1-4 vs Bluestone 2A

41. 1.00C Eastern Montgomery 1-4 vs bye

42. 1.00B Stonewall Jackson 0-5 vs Riverheads

43. 0.50A Windsor 0-5 vs Sussex Central

44. 0.50B Cumberland 0-5 vs Nottoway 2A

45. 0.20C Craig Co. 0-5 vs bye

46. 000A King & Queen 0-4 vs Fuqua

47. 000D Twin Springs 0-5 vs bye

48. 000A Mathews 0-4 vs Rappahannock

49. 000D Rye Cove 0-5 vs bye
 
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