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4A Early Rankings

Jun 9, 2015
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Hey Guys - I would like to get some insight as to how you all think the 4A teams stack up this year. I live in Northern Virginia and have an idea of 4A up North and have provided my rankings for Conference 21A, 21B, and Conference 22. I am not even going to try and rank teams in other parts of the state as I do not get much of an opportunity to see them play. I would like to see some others come up with rankings for the southern portion of the state for 4A West and I would also like to see what people are thinking about 4A East.

My rankings for 4A Northwest:
1. Woodgrove
2. Dominion
3. Sherando
4. Liberty - Bealeton
5. John Champe
6. Kettle Run
7. Loudoun Valley
8. Heritage - Leesburg
9. Loudoun County
10. Rock Ridge
11. Freedom-SR
12. Fauquier
13. Millbrook
14. John Handley
15. James Wood
16. Harrisonburg
17. Park View - Sterling
 
Sad to see how far Harrisonburg has fallen

I agree - do you have any insight into the Program at Harrisonburg? I know the demographic shift at Harrisonburg High School has really hurt the product on the field - but are there other factors that have contributed to their drop off?
 
Why do you have Dominion ranked so highly? They were only 5-6 last season.

I was skeptical about ranking them that highly to say the least - but the word over in Loudoun County is that they have a lot coming back. I will be the first to admit that my rankings are more than likely severely flawed - but I wanted to get some discussion going.

I will also note that I actually debated on ranking Kettle Run so highly only because they lost so much. Rock Ridge is really an unknown, Freedom-South Riding has a new coach and is dropping down a classification, Fauquier has a new coach who was extremely successful in Kentucky and runs the trips option so they may surprise teams.

It's all just conjecture designed to stimulate some discussion and get some insight from people who know these teams better than I do.

Do you have any opinions on teams for the upcoming season?
 
I'll take a stab at the 12 southwest teams. At this point it's based on last year's results and who is returning.

1. Salem
2. Jefferson Forest
3. GW Danville
4. EC Glass
5. Charlottesville
6. LCA
7. Pulaski
8. Amherst
9. William Fleming
10. William Byrd
11. Bassett
12. Carroll Co

I expect the top 3 to win 7 or more regular season games.
I expect teams 4-9 to win between 4-7 regular season games.
I expect the bottom 3 to win 4 games or less. I forgot LCA in the original post.
 
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here is my 4A west pre season rankings based on what I know so far, which isn't a lot.
1. Salem tie
1. Sherando tie
3. GW Danville
4. Jefferson Forest
5. Woodgrove
6. Liberty B.
7. Dominion
8. Loudoun Valley
9. Amherst
10. Charlottesville
The rest don't matter
 
I'll take a stab at the 11 southwest teams. At this point it's based on last year's results and who is returning.

1. Salem
2. Jefferson Forest
3. GW Danville
4. EC Glass
5. Charlottesville
6. Pulaski
7. Amherst
8. William Fleming
9. William Byrd
10. Bassett
11. Carroll Co

I expect the top 3 to win 7 or more regular season games.
I expect teams 4-8 to win between 4-7 regular season games.
I expect the bottom 3 to win 4 games or less.
Hope Amherst finishes higher
 
Dominion is ready to make the move. QB Scotty Forbes is slick and they have abundant skilled talent in addition of BW RB Jordan Hinson. Time to put up or shut up for the Titans and their staff
 
Dominion is ready to make the move. QB Scotty Forbes is slick and they have abundant skilled talent in addition of BW RB Jordan Hinson. Time to put up or shut up for the Titans and their staff

The word on the street is that they will be tough this year - even with the loss of their All-World LB. But I guess the word on the street doesn't carry much weight come Friday Night. But it's still fun to discuss in the off-season
 
If I had to go out on a very thin limb I would rank the top 12 in the 4A West Region as follows:
1. Jefferson Forest
2. G.W. Danville
3. Woodgrove
4. Salem
5. Dominion
6. Sherando
7. Liberty-Bealeton
8. E.C. Glass
9. Charlottesville
10. John Champe
11. Pulaski
12. Amherst County
 
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If I had to go out on a very thin limb I would rank the top 12 in the 4A West Region as follows:
1. Jefferson Forest
2. G.W. Danville
3. Woodgrove
4. Salem
5. Dominion
6. Sherando
7. Liberty-Bealeton
8. E.C. Glass
9. Charlottesville
10. John Champe
11. Pulaski
12. Amherst County
I don't know enough about the NW teams to do a complete West breakdown but I think Sherando will be in the Top 3. JF, Salem, GW, & ECG will all have new QB so it's hard to say how that will affect those teams. (It won't affect JF & ECG as much because they are rush heavy compared to a more balanced attack from Salem and GW)

I think ECG will be interesting to watch this year with Coach Woody at the helm. He should bring the excitement back to a school that has a lot of good athletes. If he can get them on the field and they buy in to his system, look out. The last 2 high profile coaches coming into the Seminole had immediate success, with Bradley at Heritage and Christmas at JF.

With LCA coming into the VHSL I expect they'll make the playoffs and be in the lower half of the top dozen in the West. Coach Rocco is a great play caller and assuming they make the playoffs they could surprise a Top team. Once they're full members of the Seminole in two years it will be easier to predict where they'll end up in the pecking order.
 
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Calpreps Preliminary Top 10

1. Lake Taylor
2. Dinwiddie
3. Monacan
4. Liberty
5. Lafayette
6. Salem
7. King's Fork
8. Jefferson Forest
9. Eastern View
10. LCA(listed under VISAA Division 1)

calpreps.com 2015 preview
 
The only one I have a big question about is Lafayette. They will do well during the regular season, but the playoffs in 4a will be a big step up for them. Also, I would have Sherando and Hanover represented.
 
1. Sherando
1. Salem
3. Woodgrove
4. Dominion
5. Liberty
6. GW Danville
7. Jefferson Forest
8. Amherst County
9. Loudoun Valley
10. E.C. Glass

This ranking is based at how playoff-ready I see these teams being at the end of the season, not necessarily records at the end of the season or seeding. Sherando has a very tough schedule this year (the wimpy NWD not withstanding), so I expect them to drop a few games.
 
I don't know enough about the NW teams to do a complete West breakdown but I think Sherando will be in the Top 3. JF, Salem, GW, & ECG will all have new QB so it's hard to say how that will affect those teams. (It won't affect JF & ECG as much because they are rush heavy compared to a more balanced attack from Salem and GW)

I think ECG will be interesting to watch this year with Coach Woody at the helm. He should bring the excitement back to a school that has a lot of good athletes. If he can get them on the field and they buy in to his system, look out. The last 2 high profile coaches coming into the Seminole had immediate success, with Bradley at Heritage and Christmas at JF.

With LCA coming into the VHSL I expect they'll make the playoffs and be in the lower half of the top dozen in the West. Coach Rocco is a great play caller and assuming they make the playoffs they could surprise a Top team. Once they're full members of the Seminole in two years it will be easier to predict where they'll end up in the pecking order.
Woody will help the Glass program and Christmas has already proven who he is. I saw him today. Bradley of course has Heritage a top 10 again. Hope you are wrong about LCA, sorry
 
If I had to go out on a very thin limb I would rank the top 12 in the 4A West Region as follows:
1. Jefferson Forest
2. G.W. Danville
3. Woodgrove
4. Salem
5. Dominion
6. Sherando
7. Liberty-Bealeton
8. E.C. Glass
9. Charlottesville
10. John Champe
11. Pulaski
12. Amherst County

I know these are predictions but I hate to see Amherst near the bottom
 
I know these are predictions but I hate to see Amherst near the bottom

We are a bunch of homers who really have no idea - the "experts" on espn predict college teams to play for a national championship then that team loses 5 games. You also always see those teams that start out unranked and are in the hunt for the nat'l championship. This is just a bunch of guys throwin it against the wall and seeing what sticks because we love football and it's fun to discuss.

My question to you is - what's the buzz in Amherst about the Lancers this year? A lot coming back? Any young talent? Would like to hear your thoughts!
 
funny! No I hope it is game 1. Can you make it to Amherst, if so, I can make sure you get that same seat
I wish I could, but I'm not able to make away games any more because I don't have a van and I'm not able to transfer to and from a vehicle any more unfortunately. I came to the state game last year because some good people from the board helped me in getting a van. It's a lot of money to rent for just a regular season game so I won't be able to go. Thank you for your offer though I appreciate it.
 
Woody will help the Glass program and Christmas has already proven who he is. I saw him today. Bradley of course has Heritage a top 10 again. Hope you are wrong about LCA, sorry
I'm looking forward to seeing how Glass does this year. Coach Woody should make an immediate impact. I expect LCA will make some noise in a few years, but it will take some time to adjust to the better competition week in and week out once they start Seminole play.
 
Does anyone know the playoff format in 4A West? I had heard 4A West is going to a 12 team Playoff with the top 4 seeds getting a bye in Round 1 - is that going into effect this season or is 4A West is sticking with the 16 Team format?
 
Does anyone know the playoff format in 4A West? I had heard 4A West is going to a 12 team Playoff with the top 4 seeds getting a bye in Round 1 - is that going into effect this season or is 4A West is sticking with the 16 Team format?
I've heard the same thing, but have not seen anything officially. I talked to a West coach a couple of weeks ago when I heard this and he stated he didn't have a clue either. I know in the East we are breaking up to pods and cross bracketing which is silly.
 
Is it still going to be 16 total teams on our side? 8 per pod?

School end today for your kids?
 
I've heard the same thing, but have not seen anything officially. I talked to a West coach a couple of weeks ago when I heard this and he stated he didn't have a clue either. I know in the East we are breaking up to pods and cross bracketing which is silly.

Devils -

I heard after the 2015-17 cycle that the VHSL is going back to having 4 Regions like they had before the new classifications went into effect. This is just what I heard - so the pod system they are utilizing in 4A East will be how the playoffs are run across the state starting in 2017. I understand your frustration seeing how the pods were created in 4A East to allow certain teams to avoid the heavy hitters.
 
Why do you have Dominion ranked so highly? They were only 5-6 last season.
I agree that Dominion is ranked too highly on his list but when you look at who they play, you need to think twice. Those NOVA teams in the Loudoun area play at a very different level across the board than those in the SouthWest. Only the Tidewater area can surpass or equal them. IMO.
 
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here is my 4A west pre season rankings based on what I know so far, which isn't a lot.
1. Salem tie
1. Sherando tie
3. GW Danville
4. Jefferson Forest
5. Woodgrove
6. Liberty B.
7. Dominion
8. Loudoun Valley
9. Amherst
10. Charlottesville
The rest don't matter
At last, a real reply for 4A West.
 
Calpreps Preliminary Top 10

1. Lake Taylor
2. Dinwiddie
3. Monacan
4. Liberty
5. Lafayette
6. Salem
7. King's Fork
8. Jefferson Forest
9. Eastern View
10. LCA(listed under VISAA Division 1)a

calpreps.com 2015 preview
Interesting numbers only view. Thanks for posting. There are more than a few in there that raise an eyebrow. Gotta give this my own shot in a day or so. GL to all in 2015.
 
Is it still going to be 16 total teams on our side? 8 per pod?

School end today for your kids?

I wish school was over we don't get out until the 18th. The 19th our team leaves as we will be camping at VT, Penn State, and Maryland. As far I know 17-18 will be 8 team pod 19-20 will be an 8 team pod with the final two in each pod cross bracketing.
 
Devils -

I heard after the 2015-17 cycle that the VHSL is going back to having 4 Regions like they had before the new classifications went into effect. This is just what I heard - so the pod system they are utilizing in 4A East will be how the playoffs are run across the state starting in 2017. I understand your frustration seeing how the pods were created in 4A East to allow certain teams to avoid the heavy hitters.

Most Tidewater teams especially the better ones are totally against the pods in 4a-6a and eliminating ourselves, but it's was agreed upon by the other schools in the region so with anything there is strength in numbers. I know that was one of the proposals that was included in the powerpoint the VHSL presented, but there were other options also. I don't think a final say so has been made on how to the group the schools yet.
 
If I had to guess I would say 4A Preseason poll might look like:

1. LT
2. Dinwiddie
3. Sherando
4. Courtland
5. Salem
6. Jefferson Forest
7. Monacan
8. GW Danville
9. Heritage
10. Woodgrove

And I'm still saying don't sleep on Charlottesville... The Amherst Salem game to open the season really has my attention to I think Amherst may have what it takes to possibly pull the early season shocker.
 
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I would like to hear what the numbers guys say about 12 teams via two pods working down to one team, versus 16 teams in that format working down to one team means statistically, if anything? Will one format or the other have and advantage, statistically? My non mathematical brain tells me being one of 12 is easier to obtain than one of 16.
 
I would like to hear what the numbers guys say about 12 teams via two pods working down to one team, versus 16 teams in that format working down to one team means statistically, if anything? Will one format or the other have and advantage, statistically? My non mathematical brain tells me being one of 12 is easier to obtain than one of 16.

I think the biggest advantage to the 12 team playoff is that you are going to have the top 4 teams playing one less game than the teams coming from the other side. Specifically - you have one less game where a key injury could take place. A key injury in Week 1 of the regular season can be bad - but you have the rest of the year to get a guy reps and experience. A key injury in the first round of the playoffs - now you are throwing a guy out there with relatively little experience.
 
If I had to guess I would say 4A Preseason poll might look like:

1. LT
2. Dinwiddie
3. Sherando
4. Courtland
5. Salem
6. Jefferson Forest
7. Monacan
8. GW Danville
9. Heritage
10. Woodgrove

And I'm still saying don't sleep on Charlottesville... The Amherst Salem game to open the season really has my attention to I think Amherst may have what it takes to possibly pull the early season shocker.
A few things here. I think Amherst can beat Salem. Salem plays almost no one every year and Amherst has started with one of the toughest schedules in 4A for years. They will want this one badly. Salem has lost a lot and The Lancers are no one's door mat. Your picks have some Creedence but at least the Lancers have balls. I'll settle for that. As far a Charlottesville goes, just not gonna' happen. Don't know how you went there.
 
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A few things here. I think Amherst can beat Salem. Salem plays almost no one every year and Amherst has started with one of the toughest schedules in 4A for years. They will want this one badly. Salem has lost a lot and The Lancers are no one's door mat. Your picks have some Creedence but at least the Lancers have balls. I'll settle for that. As far a Charlottesville goes, just not gonna' happen. Don't know how you went there.
I'm not sure what Charlottesville returns, but I do know they return a Soph QB that was very impressive by the end of last yr. If he has a decent supporting cast they should make some noise.

Salem should be well prepared scrimmaging Magna Vista, Brookville, & Jefferson Forest. Amherst is always a tough place to play and it will be good to see the old playoff rivalry renewed during the regular season. As I told Wikki, hopefully Amherst will get back to its winning ways beginning with game 2.
 
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A few things here. I think Amherst can beat Salem. Salem plays almost no one every year and Amherst has started with one of the toughest schedules in 4A for years. They will want this one badly. Salem has lost a lot and The Lancers are no one's door mat. Your picks have some Creedence but at least the Lancers have balls. I'll settle for that. As far a Charlottesville goes, just not gonna' happen. Don't know how you went there.

The information I have received is Charlottesville will be very much improved. I'm not saying winning a state title or anything, but I think they are a program on the rise.
 
A few things here. I think Amherst can beat Salem. Salem plays almost no one every year and Amherst has started with one of the toughest schedules in 4A for years. They will want this one badly. Salem has lost a lot and The Lancers are no one's door mat. Your picks have some Creedence but at least the Lancers have balls. I'll settle for that. As far a Charlottesville goes, just not gonna' happen. Don't know how you went there.

Your in Maryland right shaunt? August 28, make the trip over to Loudoun County for the Dominion-Charlottesville game. It'll be well worth the price of admission and maybe we can change your mind. I'm not saying we will, only one way to find out though. You have so little faith in us and also know nothing about what we'll bring to the table in 2015. Look at it this way, at very worst, you can watch Dominion, who I know will be a playoff contender come December, and you can also meet yours truly afterwards.
 
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I'm not sure what Charlottesville returns, but I do know they return a Soph QB that was very impressive by the end of last yr. If he has a decent supporting cast they should make some noise.

Not sure where you got that info but our QB last year was a SR, Malik Bartee. He's headed to Ferrum in the fall. Not sure who our QB will be until August, couple of good looking options who are competing as we speak. We were 4-7 last year, we shouldn't be on the radar until we post a winning record. Come on August, tick-tock-tick-tock.
 
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