4A West Playoff why only 12 Teams?
- Thread starter Bluetree
- Start date
The Roanoke Times had a short article concerning this, before the season began. This sentence from that article sums it up:
"Two years of long, costly road trips to play games that ended in blowouts were enough to convince the region's administrators to slice the bottom four teams off the postseason roster."
They might have added "games that ended in blowouts, which very few people were attending." Hopefully, I've successfully linked the article (first time doing this on a Smartphone); please read the coaches' comments therein.
Here are the first-round results for the top four seeds from the 4A North (now 4A West) playoffs from the past two seasons:
2014
(1)Salem 52, (16)Charlottesville 13
(2)Jefferson Forest 43, (15) Loudoun County 21
(3)Liberty 48, (14)Pulaski County 7
(4)GW 63, (13)Fauquier 21
2013
(1)Sherando 49, (16)Amherst Co. 15
(2)Salem 49, (15)Fauquier 27
(3)Eastern View 35, (14) E.C. Glass 32
(4)Courtland 15, (13)Pulaski Co. 0
That's an average margin of 27.25 points, and I suspect most of them could have been much worse. Only two of those games were closer than 22 points.
http://m.roanoke.com/sports/high_sc...270-61a2-5f96-b90f-17812e967ee3.html?mode=jqm
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The average margin of victory was 21.75 points.
Woodgrove over Louisa 21-7
Courtland over Dominion 15-13
Eastern View over Fleming 42-19
Sherando over Wood 48-0
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Going further in round 2 the difference was 8 points
Regional semifinals it was 13.5
Regional final was a 17 point game.
27-point margin....big problem
21-point margin...not a concern at all?????
Logic.exe has fatal error, please reboot
There's got to be a line drawn somewhere. Why not make a 24 or 32 team playoff then if the MOV being moved up doesn't really matter? I mean what's the difference between a bunch of 34 point blowouts compared to a bunch of 27 point ones? What about a bunch of 55 point blowouts for the top 4 seeds? It's all arbitrary.
I personally don't care. As a Salem fan it's an extra week at home to watch the kids play the game and a likely extra W to put in the books so not getting that isn't something I actually like anyway. I do understand not wanting to send kids 4 hours away to go lose by 4+ TDs in front of an average-at-best crowd(even at Salem those first week games weren't huge draws).
Oh, you misunderstand. I have no interest in moving the playoff participants UP.
If you look at it in the 2nd round you had the best games which they were decided by an average of 8 points. That would have been a great starting point to have just 8 teams. The first round games were pointless blowouts that I'm sure kids weren't even getting up for because most teams knew the outcome.
I think 12 teams is an excellent compromise that rewards the teams that have superior seasons coupled with smart ADs and Coaches that schedule wisely.
Just FWIW it feels like even when there's a talent disparity the kids play harder if the opponent is familiar. The old system with all the close playoff opponents always seemed to have something extra to them because of that. Now you bring two schools together that are 4 hours apart with no familiarity or time to learn to hate the other school(as is custom) and you put teams in bad positions and bad things happen. Maybe a team that's down 21 against random school A is a bit more likely to phone in trying to rally than if they were playing kids they see regularly.
Not saying blowouts didn't happen in the old system or anything, I just think both as a coach and a player if the team is someone you already played or a team you see often in the playoffs there's just something else there you can use to pump up the game and really make it a better matchup.
I see a lot talk about blow-outs in 1st round games, but blow-outs can happen in any round. I think a more accurate barometer to measure whether 16 teams are to many is to look back and and see how many 9-16 seeds won 1st round games. Probably more than people think.
The OP asked about 4A West. In the first two years of 4A West (same as 4A North) playoffs, seeds 13 through 16 have gone a combined 0-8, with only two margins under 22 points, as detailed above. A key factor in the region's decision to drop these four lowest seeds. Along with the extended travel and very sparse attendance.
Seeds 9 through 12 have gone a combined 2-6. The only two upsets were both in 2013 - (9)Liberty beat (8)Handley 49-47, and (10)Dominion beat (7)King George 35-13.
So in the region in question, seeds 9 through 16 have posted a 2-14 record in two years of first-round playoff games. Both Liberty and Dominion lost decisively in the second round in 2013.
I know it is a 4A board, but I was talking about overall 1A thru 6A. Didn't #1seed hidden valley get beat by a 16 seed last year? No one seems to take in account that maybe some low seeds may have had key injuries during the season, and may have lost a couple of games that if healthy, they may have won.
I was underscoring that I'm sticking to 4A West region results, since that is the region in question. My guess is that the 4A West principals and AD's used those same results when reaching their decision. Seeds 13, 14, 15, and 16 had eight games over two years to prove themselves, and really didn't come close to getting it done.
Yes, number 1 Hidden Valley lost to number 16 Waynesboro last year in 3A West. However, if you saw HV in person, the eyeball test would have told you that they were in no way, shape or form a one seed. Especially after they lost their best player, and one or two others, to injury. When I saw them in week nine, they struck me as barely worthy of the 3A playoffs. IMHO, that particular 16 over 1 upset says a lot more about the flaws in the VHSL rating scale than it does about the ability of the lowest seeds to pull an upset. Waynesboro was seeded several slots lower than they should have been, and HV way higher than was warranted.
It would be interesting to know how seeds 9 through 16 have fared in all the other classifications and regions. Hopefully, they've done better than they have in 4A West. I'll let someone else look all that up - I've already missed too much of "The Walking Dead."
Salem won state in 2000 going 6-4 in the regular season, you don't need to tell me about the unlikely happening but the odds are really, really not in your favor to make that kind of a run.
Also if you're going to talk about injuries affecting teams you should be aware that HV lost their do-everything player late last year and their playoff ranking wasn't reflective of where they were as a team without that kid. I don't know about first round exit predictions but I know I had them out in the 2nd week and others I chatted with thought similarly. They were a vastly different team without him and would have lost several games without him. I believe he was lost in week 8 at the end of the PC game then they lost to Salem and beat a very average CS team the following week by one point before being upset in the playoffs. They were probably a 4-5 win team without him(they finished 8-3).
Also if you're going to talk about injuries affecting teams you should be aware that HV lost their do-everything player late last year and their playoff ranking wasn't reflective of where they were as a team without that kid. I don't know about first round exit predictions but I know I had them out in the 2nd week and others I chatted with thought similarly. They were a vastly different team without him and would have lost several games without him. I believe he was lost in week 8 at the end of the PC game then they lost to Salem and beat a very average CS team the following week by one point before being upset in the playoffs. They were probably a 4-5 win team without him(they finished 8-3).
They were actually missing 2 key players from Salem on: Atkins (LB/FB) playing at W&M & Dermott (RB/S) playing at VMI. I think Atkins played 1Q before he went out with a knee problem I think.
Actually , the Spartans were 11-3 for the season so they could not have been 6-4 during regular season ! They had a forfeit win against Cave Spring for using illegal player or players I believe ! Cave was still one school and AAA enrollment then because Hidden Valley had not opened and were around 2000 students I believe ! This forfeit win aided Salem in getting into playoffs but your point is still valid ! When Salem entered the playoffs they were relatively healthy and a very good defense that was not healthy , a division one kicker and punter and a 6'2" 281 pound fullback we were able to win the state , getting by the more talented squad of Northside that year in the playoffs 10-6 after losing to them during the regular season !
You are correct about the 2000 Spartans being 7-3 during the regular season, after the Cave Spring loss became a victory by forfeit. I think there was only one player involved. However, if I may offer one correction, that forfeit victory didn't help Salem get into the playoffs. It actually didn't even change their seeding, IIRC, as the teams were spread out enough on the points scale that Salem was going to be the third seed either way. Of course, our friends in southwest county could never be convinced of that.
After the loss to Northside, the coaches moved a few players around on D, and that made all the difference. Another big factor was that the quarterback managed to quit fumbling three or four times a game. Not all were lost, but it was killing the offense. Once that problem was ironed out, Salem's offense - average at best that season - rode what turned into an outstanding defense, and a great kicking game, to a third straight title.
And people constantly argue that one or two special players don't make a major difference to a team. IMO, no one wins the Championship without one.
