5A by the numbers
- Thread starter GilliamRatings
- Start date
That is awesome! I love the insight into the numbers and the history of Gilliam Ratings.
So maybe I just need to go back to the start of the season and do the math or maybe I need the algorithm to figure out the answer to the following question (or more likely need to give the algorithm to Virginia Tech Engineering School student son to figure out for me. lol) How can Bird be ranked #1 in offensive and defensive categories and strength of schedules and yet be lower in RPI and VHSL Power Rating? Is that a product of Tuscarora's win margin in the playoffs?
Not to be picky, but you have Broad "Rim" instead of "Run" in the rematch.
So maybe I just need to go back to the start of the season and do the math or maybe I need the algorithm to figure out the answer to the following question (or more likely need to give the algorithm to Virginia Tech Engineering School student son to figure out for me. lol) How can Bird be ranked #1 in offensive and defensive categories and strength of schedules and yet be lower in RPI and VHSL Power Rating? Is that a product of Tuscarora's win margin in the playoffs?
Not to be picky, but you have Broad "Rim" instead of "Run" in the rematch.
No, usually systems calculate the power rating first and then the offensive and defensive ratings are a post-rating calculation based on how many more points a team scores than would be expected against their opponents (it's usually a tedious process of multiple iterations of some algorithm that repeats until it doesn't get any variation, but there are other ways--I have no idea how they do it over there. But....Basically, this usually means the team with the higher rating would be rated lower than the team with the lower rating except for the fact that there is usually some sort of bonus or award or something like that for a win.
So most likely if they didn't have the "win bonus," Bird would probably have a higher rating than Tuscarora. However, even though Bird's losses to Lake Taylor and Manchester actually probably rank out as strong performances since those two teams are rated so highly, the algorithm probably still penalized Bird some for losing those. The basic idea is that a win is worth something.
Another way to put it. Beating a team by 1 point might look only 2 points better than losing to them by 1 point, but in reality, there's a world of difference, so most systems have some sort of win adjustment that helps that team that won by 1 point be considered more than 2 points better than the team that lost by one point. It does seem to give more pleasing rankings if you do it that way.
However, I don't recall seeing anyone calculate offensive and defensive ratings with that same win bonus in mind.
In short, purely by the numbers Bird looks stronger than Tuscarora, but when you factor in that Bird's numbers include 2 losses, the computer dropped Bird below them.
So most likely if they didn't have the "win bonus," Bird would probably have a higher rating than Tuscarora. However, even though Bird's losses to Lake Taylor and Manchester actually probably rank out as strong performances since those two teams are rated so highly, the algorithm probably still penalized Bird some for losing those. The basic idea is that a win is worth something.
Another way to put it. Beating a team by 1 point might look only 2 points better than losing to them by 1 point, but in reality, there's a world of difference, so most systems have some sort of win adjustment that helps that team that won by 1 point be considered more than 2 points better than the team that lost by one point. It does seem to give more pleasing rankings if you do it that way.
However, I don't recall seeing anyone calculate offensive and defensive ratings with that same win bonus in mind.
In short, purely by the numbers Bird looks stronger than Tuscarora, but when you factor in that Bird's numbers include 2 losses, the computer dropped Bird below them.
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