Another Ratings Beat

[GilliamRatings]

A few more things at my site.

"Expected Wins" page is up...hunt for it under the "more" tab at the top.

You can see how the system did this past season "predicting" games. Since I didn't publish this until after the season, the word "predicting' is a little disingenuous, but it's what it would have predicted had my system been running last season. There's a button on the front page to these predictions.

A pretty technical "Ratings Beat" column that gets a lot into analyzing just how good (or not good) my system is and some musings from me about why it seems that their is a lot more disparity from the best teams to the worst teams than there was even seven or eight years ago.

Link to the home page:

The site is getting more and more like what I want....still a lot of stuff to add. I'm excited about adding expected regular season wins and probability of going undefeated in the preseason next year. Also should have a great way to pick playoff teams and seed them up.

I intend to add NFL and NCAA football as well as VHSL(if I can get the scores), NCAA and NBA basketball.
I'm even considering extending to private schools and neighboring states if I can get the data.

The process is fast now. I just have to be sure I can get the scores.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Thanks for all your hard work. I know it is a labor of love, but still consumes a lot of your time. I hope there are angles where you can turn a few bucks with the system you have developed.

How soon will you publish your week 1 and 2 predictions for 2015.
I assume at this point most teams have not officially posted their schedules?

Thanks again. DP

 

[GilliamRatings]

As soon as I get the entire VHSL schedule I intend to predict and publish the entire season and I will keep updating predictions after each week's slate of games.

 

[GilliamRatings]

New Toys at my Website

Game Simulator - Simulates a game if you enter the ratings of the two teams. It plays through the game each time and is based on a model that should give you the variability of real games...favorite won't always win and you can get crazily different results each time you run it, but the teams will win at the percentages indicated by their ratings if you play a bunch of games.

Ratings Calculator - You can input the game number, ratings of teams and actual score of game and this will give you the team's new ratings. The week number is the VHSL game number for the team you are interested in, unless it's the playoffs in which case enter a 5 for first round game, 4.5 for second round game, 4 for quarter-final, 3.5 for semi-final and 3 for state championship.

This post was edited on 1/19 8:46 AM by GilliamRatings

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Re: New Toys at my Website

Matt, after reading your 1-18 post, (yes, to the end), I think that with the right medication, and enough institutionalism, you may one day be able to reintegrate back into society. But, you MUST take your medications as prescribed, and make a lot of clay ashtrays.