Buffalo Gap/Staunton Points Question

[longtimerhsfan]

I have never tried to understand the state rating system but I know some of you not only understand it, you stay weeks ahead of it. For that reason I am betting that one or more of you can answer this question.

Currently Buffalo Gap has a 17.75 rating and a 5-3 overall record. Their final two opponents are Riverheads and Fort Defiance, and for the purpose of this question, let's say they lose both of those and finish at 5-5.

Staunton is only 2-6 on the season but has a rating of 16.75, exactly one point behind the Gap. On paper it would appear that they would be expected to split their final two games and finish 3-7.

So my question is this.......if those two scenarios did indeed come to pass, could that be enough to elevate Staunton above BG for the eighth spot? If so, I rather doubt that would set too well with Bison fans, especially considering that they beat Staunton head to head.

 

[moto138]

If staunton goes 3-7 they most likely slide into 8th. Only 8 points seperate you now so a win is worth 18 plus rider points and a loss is only worth 6 and rider points.

 

[Gunz41]

If staunton goes 3-7 they most likely slide into 8th. Only 8 points seperate you now so a win is worth 18 plus rider points and a loss is only worth 6 and rider points.

Staunton win (from his scenario) would come against probably 1-9 Wilson. Which is 20 instead of 18. And Gap vs Fort would with a loss would be 8 not 6, as both Wilson and Fort are 3a

But to answer longtime question, head to head doesn't matter for anything unless they end tied, which would then revert to head to head

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Here is what I have for the two scenarios: @Gunz41 double check my projections.

Gap wins against both Riverheads and Fort to go 7-3, they end at roughly 220 points or 22.0 avg.
Gap loses to Riverheads but defeats Fort to go 6-4, they end at roughly 199 points or 19.9 avg.
Gap loses both games and ends at 5-5, they end at roughly 181 points or 18.1 avg.

Staunton wins against both Stuarts Draft and Wilson to go 4-6, they end at roughly 206 points or 20.6 avg.
Staunton loses to Draft but defeats Wilson to go 3-7, they end at roughly 184 points or 18.4 avg.
Staunton loses both games and ends at 2-8, they end at roughly 171 points or 17.1 avg

I think Gap has a rooting interest in the Wilson/Staunton game due to having to face two quality opponents themselves.

 

[Gunz41]

But to go a little more into it, going off your scenario @longtimerhsfan

Both would get 15 points this week for losses to SD and RH respectively. Then the following week

Staunton 22 points for win over Wilson. Gap 14 points with loss to Fort (ending at 6-4). So that is a tie with the current 8 point deficit.

So it all depends on rider points, and while Staunton has played the tougher schedule, Gap has 3 more wins at present which is the opportunity to gain more rider points.

Furthermore, if they do finish the way you have described, Gap would gain 2 more riders because of Staunton beating Wilson, while Staunton would gain 0 for Gap not winning again. Advantage Gap.

Take out the district games (as they will generate points either way from gains besides the head to head).

Staunton would get 1 point each from Lord Botetourt, LCA, Central Woodstock and 2 points with Covington and Turner Ashby.

Gap gets 2 points each for Parry McCluer, Bath County, Broadway and 1 each for Clarke County and East Rockingham

 

[Gunz41]

Here is what I have for the two scenarios: @Gunz41 double check my projections.

Gap wins against both Riverheads and Fort to go 7-3, they end at roughly 220 points or 22.0 avg.
Gap loses to Riverheads but defeats Fort to go 6-4, they end at roughly 199 points or 19.9 avg.
Gap loses both games and ends at 5-5, they end at roughly 181 points or 18.1 avg.

Staunton wins against both Stuarts Draft and Wilson to go 4-6, they end at roughly 206 points or 20.6 avg.
Staunton loses to Draft but defeats Wilson to go 3-7, they end at roughly 184 points or 18.4 avg.
Staunton loses both games and ends at 2-8, they end at roughly 171 points or 17.1 avg

I think Gap has a rooting interest in the Wilson/Staunton game due to having to face two quality opponents themselves.

What I get with picking winner for each team is

182 Gap
187 Staunton

Key games to watch to swing things
Turner Ashby vs Rockbridge
Central Woodstock vs Warren County
Covington vs Craig County
Covington vs Bath County (would be a 4 point swing).

 

[longtimerhsfan]

Now you know why I don't even TRY to figure these things out! You math whizzes amaze me.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

If Gap goes on the road and beats a quality Fort team, then they are in the drivers seat. Simultaneously the Storm will be hosting the Hornets ensure their playoff spot. If thing are going south for the Bison, their fans will lean an ear to the PA announcer for updates on the Staunton/Wilson game. All other things aside, those games will decide what happens between the two barring a unimaginable rider point scenario.

 

[longtimerhsfan]

So to summarize, all three of those final night games will have major implications not just the big one. RHS/SD will be big for obvious reasons but the other two will have playoff implications for at least three of the four teams playing.

 

[Baseball215]

I was looking at that today I thought they had the 8th seed wrapped up but I guess they don’t