CalPreps Va ratings
- Thread starter mike salem
- Start date
Before anyone huffs and puffs, the best I can tell at a glance is because of how Salem's PO games went (blowout, blowout, 1 point win, blowout, 21 point win) they were greatly rewarded and since Louisa and Blacksburg especially were rated highly (Louisa is 6 here, Blacksburg is 9) that caused Salem to be greatly rewarded.
They assign a value to the game, win or lose, based on the rating of the opponent + or - the MOV. In cases where the MOV is less than 15 then 15 is assigned (this prevents Salem beating Blacksburg by 1 being worth barely more than Blacksburg losing to Salem by 1, instead its like Salem won by 15). In cases where the MOV is 30 or more, 29 is used in order to prevent awarding too many points for a poor schedule.
Westfield, the 6A winner who is #4 in this poll, won their PO games by 14, 29, 20, 11, and 7 points thus they had 3 games with the minimum MOV value of 15 assigned and only one with the max of 29 assigned.
Salem won their PO games by 36, 29, 1, 35, and 21 points thus they had 3 games with the maximum MOV value of 29 assigned and only one with the minimum of 15 assigned.
Basically, Salem is #1 because they blew out* 4 of their 5 PO opponents and the computer had several teams ranked very high as well as having Sherando at 31 and GW at 33. There's obviously more to the formula than that but most of the top 10 shared a very similar SOS and opponent W-L record although a few schools stood out there like Salem, HSHS, Westfield, OS.
* I do NOT consider Salem to have blown out Louisa. However, computers don't watch games thus to them 21 points is considered a very strong win.
They assign a value to the game, win or lose, based on the rating of the opponent + or - the MOV. In cases where the MOV is less than 15 then 15 is assigned (this prevents Salem beating Blacksburg by 1 being worth barely more than Blacksburg losing to Salem by 1, instead its like Salem won by 15). In cases where the MOV is 30 or more, 29 is used in order to prevent awarding too many points for a poor schedule.
Westfield, the 6A winner who is #4 in this poll, won their PO games by 14, 29, 20, 11, and 7 points thus they had 3 games with the minimum MOV value of 15 assigned and only one with the max of 29 assigned.
Salem won their PO games by 36, 29, 1, 35, and 21 points thus they had 3 games with the maximum MOV value of 29 assigned and only one with the minimum of 15 assigned.
Basically, Salem is #1 because they blew out* 4 of their 5 PO opponents and the computer had several teams ranked very high as well as having Sherando at 31 and GW at 33. There's obviously more to the formula than that but most of the top 10 shared a very similar SOS and opponent W-L record although a few schools stood out there like Salem, HSHS, Westfield, OS.
* I do NOT consider Salem to have blown out Louisa. However, computers don't watch games thus to them 21 points is considered a very strong win.
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Lafayette at #11. End of an excellent “rebuilding” season for the Rams.
Nice feather, but not a lot of meaning in reality. Any 4A school is gonna have a tough time against Westfields/Stone Bridge/Colonial Forge/etc... That's no criticism of any 4A school. Just a different level.
I agree, however I think Salem, Louisa, Dinwiddie and Blacksburg ( and maybe a few others) would play close games with them. Remember 4a Kings Fork beat Oscar Smith this year.
KF soundly beat OS late in the season this year. Based on that game I was very surprised that OS made it to the championship game. Div 6 may not be do invincible as some here think.
VHSL Reference, which presumably has used the same method since 1999, has generally ranked the D4/4A champion much higher in recent years.
Rank Rating
2016 7 94.7
2015 6 99.4
2014 3 104.4
2013 5 101
2012 7 99
2011 22 86.7
2010 17 92.7
2009 10 97.5
2008 15 95.3
2007 12 96.7
2006 25 88.6
2005 18 91
2004 15 95.2
2003 20 89.5
2002 38 84
2001 19 88.5
2000 35 87
1999 13 96.8
Rank Rating
2016 7 94.7
2015 6 99.4
2014 3 104.4
2013 5 101
2012 7 99
2011 22 86.7
2010 17 92.7
2009 10 97.5
2008 15 95.3
2007 12 96.7
2006 25 88.6
2005 18 91
2004 15 95.2
2003 20 89.5
2002 38 84
2001 19 88.5
2000 35 87
1999 13 96.8
Problem with VHSL reference is it takes forever to update lately. It is three weeks behind now on games
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