Here we are in February with Superbowl in our rear view mirrors... NFL is now over, college has been over and we are now looking towards the 2017 season rather than looking back at the 2016 season. We don't have a lot to talk about at this point in time other than recruiting so I started thinking to myself, is there anything that can give us a look into the future? I'm one of those guys that likes to look for trends in sports... I'm also a stat guy, it's just my thing. So I did some studying of how the champions fared the year before in an effort to determine who our 2017 champion will be... Here is what we learned.
11 previous champions reached no further than the second round before winning it all. This would apply to Bayside, Centreville, Grassfield, Hayfield, Riverbend, South County, Thomas Dale and West Potomac.
6 previous champions reached no further than the state semifinals a year before wining it all. This would of course apply to Colonial Forge and South Lakes.
4 previous champions did not even reach the playoffs a year before they won it all. This would apply to Chantilly, Clover Hill, First Colonial, Floyd Kellam, Franklin, Gar-Field, Granby, Herndon, Langley, McLean, Osbourn, Osbourn Park, Stonewall Jackson, West Springfield, Woodbridge and Yorktown.
Only once since 2000 did the champion not qualify for the playoffs a year before they won it all.
3 previous champions won the year before which would of course apply to Westfield.
2 previous champions reached no further than the second round. This would apply to Battlefield, CD Hylton, Cosby, Frank Cox, Freedom, George Marshall, James River, James Robinson, JEB Stuart, Landstown, Mount Vernon, Oakton, Patriot, Tallwood, TC Williams, Washington-Lee, Western Branch and WT Woodson.
28 of the 30 previous champions reached no less than the second round a year before winning it all.
2 previous champions lost the state championship a year before they won it all. This of course would apply to Oscar Smith.
2 previous champions reached no further than the third round a year before they won it all. This of course would apply to James Madison, Lake Braddock, Manchester and Woodside.
7 schools have won more than one state title in Class 6, only two have three or more; Westfield and CD Hylton. Westfield now lead the Class 6 teams with state titles with four.
There have been 14 teams to win just one championship as opposed to 7 schools who have won more than one.
5 of the last 6 champions were previous champions; Centreville, LC Bird, Ocean Lakes, Oscar Smith and Westfield.
There has never been a three-peat at the Class 6 level.
Only five past Class 6 champions are no longer in Class 6; Halifax, Hampton, Indian River, LC Bird and Pulaski.
5 of the last 7 champions reached no less than the third round before winning it all the next year. This would apply to Colonial Forge, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Manchester, Oscar Smith, South Lakes, Westfield and Woodside,
16 of the last 19 previous champions had 8 or more wins during the regular season a year before winning it all. This would apply to Bayside, Centreville, Colonial Forge, Frank Cox, Freedom-Prince William, Grassfield, Hayfield, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Landstown, Manchester, Oscar Smith, South Lakes, Tallwood, Thomas Dale, West Potomac, Westfield and Woodside.
Since 2007 every champion had a 31.0 or higher VHSL rating a year before they won it all. This would apply to Bayside, Centreville, Colonial Forge, Frank Cox, Freedom-Prince William, Grassfield, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Landstown, Manchester, Oscar Smith, Riverbend, South County, South Lakes, Tallwood, Thomas Dale, Westfield and Woodside.
So what does this all mean...
It means one of the following schools will likely win the Class 6 championship in 2017... Bayside, Centreville, Colonial Forge, Grassfield, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Manchester, Oscar Smith, South Lakes, Thomas Dale, Westfield or Woodside.
11 previous champions reached no further than the second round before winning it all. This would apply to Bayside, Centreville, Grassfield, Hayfield, Riverbend, South County, Thomas Dale and West Potomac.
6 previous champions reached no further than the state semifinals a year before wining it all. This would of course apply to Colonial Forge and South Lakes.
4 previous champions did not even reach the playoffs a year before they won it all. This would apply to Chantilly, Clover Hill, First Colonial, Floyd Kellam, Franklin, Gar-Field, Granby, Herndon, Langley, McLean, Osbourn, Osbourn Park, Stonewall Jackson, West Springfield, Woodbridge and Yorktown.
Only once since 2000 did the champion not qualify for the playoffs a year before they won it all.
3 previous champions won the year before which would of course apply to Westfield.
2 previous champions reached no further than the second round. This would apply to Battlefield, CD Hylton, Cosby, Frank Cox, Freedom, George Marshall, James River, James Robinson, JEB Stuart, Landstown, Mount Vernon, Oakton, Patriot, Tallwood, TC Williams, Washington-Lee, Western Branch and WT Woodson.
28 of the 30 previous champions reached no less than the second round a year before winning it all.
2 previous champions lost the state championship a year before they won it all. This of course would apply to Oscar Smith.
2 previous champions reached no further than the third round a year before they won it all. This of course would apply to James Madison, Lake Braddock, Manchester and Woodside.
7 schools have won more than one state title in Class 6, only two have three or more; Westfield and CD Hylton. Westfield now lead the Class 6 teams with state titles with four.
There have been 14 teams to win just one championship as opposed to 7 schools who have won more than one.
5 of the last 6 champions were previous champions; Centreville, LC Bird, Ocean Lakes, Oscar Smith and Westfield.
There has never been a three-peat at the Class 6 level.
Only five past Class 6 champions are no longer in Class 6; Halifax, Hampton, Indian River, LC Bird and Pulaski.
5 of the last 7 champions reached no less than the third round before winning it all the next year. This would apply to Colonial Forge, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Manchester, Oscar Smith, South Lakes, Westfield and Woodside,
16 of the last 19 previous champions had 8 or more wins during the regular season a year before winning it all. This would apply to Bayside, Centreville, Colonial Forge, Frank Cox, Freedom-Prince William, Grassfield, Hayfield, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Landstown, Manchester, Oscar Smith, South Lakes, Tallwood, Thomas Dale, West Potomac, Westfield and Woodside.
Since 2007 every champion had a 31.0 or higher VHSL rating a year before they won it all. This would apply to Bayside, Centreville, Colonial Forge, Frank Cox, Freedom-Prince William, Grassfield, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Landstown, Manchester, Oscar Smith, Riverbend, South County, South Lakes, Tallwood, Thomas Dale, Westfield and Woodside.
So what does this all mean...
It means one of the following schools will likely win the Class 6 championship in 2017... Bayside, Centreville, Colonial Forge, Grassfield, James Madison, Lake Braddock, Manchester, Oscar Smith, South Lakes, Thomas Dale, Westfield or Woodside.
