Gilliam Ratings Update

[GilliamRatings]

The new rating system is has been used to rerank all teams for all seasons from 1999-2014. There are about 20 million different ways I've thought to use this stuff, so there is a near infinite supply of "news," "opinion" and "Ratings Beat" articles for me to write.

I really do want to know if you find mistakes; especially bad or wrong links or just bad data. It is so easy to have a score entered wrong or a division wrong or something. Just let me know if you think I have a mistake, or if you have additional data for me.

I am going to try and do NFL (should be a piece of cake--only 32 teams) and NCAA (should be a bigger chore--a gazillion teams).

I also hope to expand to basketball if I can get the data.

The new system is cool, but it's got quirks. If something doesn't make sense to you, please let me know. Sometimes I can explain why it works that way. Sometimes, you've found a mistake or a bug. It helps me.

Just be nice. I love talking ratings and explaining my thinking, but I don't enjoy being told I'm stupid or being told that mathematics is stupid. Keep checking the site--I think you'll like what you see.

VirginiaPreps will run most stuff I send, so if I think I stumble onto something interesting, profound, or controversial in an article, you might see it posted here.

Anyway, browse away, I'll keep trying to add something every day.[/URL]

 

[GilliamRatings]

New Ratings Beat

This one is actually not what I intended to write. I intended to write a piece on why 6 classes were too many (I actually couldn't very well statistically support that stance, though I do think we could have a better set up with 5 classes. However, the numbers that jumped out at me made me realize that we simply never quite gave the Division 4 schools their due the past 25 years or so and that we probably tricked ourselves into overrating football in the 757 (or as I would rather put it, underrating the rest of Virginia).

Give it a read; you may not agree with all of the conclusions; that's okay. It took me four days to write because I kept changing my mind about what to emphasize and how to word things. I believe there is actually an entire book worth of stuff we could uncover about the history of VHSL playoffs and the politics involved.

I remember lots of coach's conversations about the classes as I was growing up, because my father was a coach and I was always with him. When I got out of college and started coaching myself was when they added divisions. I was at a bad AAA school and I actually remember the coaches pretty much agreeing that nobody would "give a damn who won the lower division." That really was true the first year when all the teams were eligible for the division I playoffs and the division II playoffs functioned more like an NIT for the smaller half of the schools in the group. An article on that whole debacle would be fun. It was a total disaster and I like how now the VHSL records pretty much pretend that it never happened and they act like that year was just like 1987-2012, but it was not. It was horrible, and their slapped together fix for it caused a lot of our problems down the line.

Another interesting article would be about what was driving small schools to stay AAA even though they were so clearly outclassed in sports by 1985. The desire to stay up in "prestigious" AAA was so strong that they have had to revamp the entire way the VHSL is aligned three times to deal with it. One fascinating phenomenon was that at the same time Richmond schools with 700 students were refusing to drop region II schools were in districts that were holding emergency school board meetings to redraw attendance zones to keep their schools from having to move up to AAA.

One thing I learned when my wife was chair of region II was that very few schools made decisions about where to play with the kids in mind.

Some Love for the Old Division 4

This post was edited on 1/11 4:50 AM by GilliamRatings

 

[southbottomU]

Re: New Ratings Beat

Found it very interesting. Don't believe you are going to convince some on this board but maybe it will open some eyes. Wish you had 98 stats----I think that was Salem's best team and it would be interesting to see how they stacked up in your system

 

[DEVILSLB99]

Re: New Ratings Beat

Originally posted by GilliamRatings:
This one is actually not what I intended to write. I intended to write a piece on why 6 classes were too many (I actually couldn't very well statistically support that stance, though I do think we could have a better set up with 5 classes. However, the numbers that jumped out at me made me realize that we simply never quite gave the Division 4 schools their due the past 25 years or so and that we probably tricked ourselves into overrating football in the 757 (or as I would rather put it, underrating the rest of Virginia).


Honestly this is funny and the sad part is I'm from the Richmond area. I played at a d5 school and when I was in high school the Richmond area got SMOKED by Tidewater in D5. I remember my freshman year walking off the field at Patrick Henry being beat by 40 and saying this team is awesome only for them to lose by almost 50 3 weeks later to Hampton High. I remember a stacked Huguenot aka the Richmond all-star team from my Jr. year getting destroyed by Hampton 38-8. Tidewater football is not overrated by any stretch. Maybe you should read Rod's story. When Tidewater makes it to the big game they produce.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Re: New Ratings Beat

That just requires a day at the library. There's so much to add to the site. I do hope to be able and go back a few more years sooner or later.Right now I'm working on looking at what the fortunes might be for the schools switching classifications next year.

 

[VaPrepsRod]

Re: New Ratings Beat

Originally posted by DEVILSLB99:

Originally posted by GilliamRatings:
This one is actually not what I intended to write. I intended to write a piece on why 6 classes were too many (I actually couldn't very well statistically support that stance, though I do think we could have a better set up with 5 classes. However, the numbers that jumped out at me made me realize that we simply never quite gave the Division 4 schools their due the past 25 years or so and that we probably tricked ourselves into overrating football in the 757 (or as I would rather put it, underrating the rest of Virginia).


Honestly this is funny and the sad part is I'm from the Richmond area. I played at a d5 school and when I was in high school the Richmond area got SMOKED by Tidewater in D5. I remember my freshman year walking off the field at Patrick Henry being beat by 40 and saying this team is awesome only for them to lose by almost 50 3 weeks later to Hampton High. I remember a stacked Huguenot aka the Richmond all-star team from my Jr. year getting destroyed by Hampton 38-8. Tidewater football is not overrated by any stretch. Maybe you should read Rod's story. When Tidewater makes it to the big game they produce.

I think that Matt is making a very different point.

My interpretation of what he wrote is that, on whole, the 757 is overrated. Or, to put it in more mathematical terms, the "average" team in Tidewater is not better than the "average" team from other parts of the state. I tend to agree with that in the respect that a 5-5 or 4-6 Tidewater team should not get too much respect for being good.

However, I think that Matt readily admits that the elite teams from the Tidewater area have been better than the elite teams from other parts of the state as shown by his individual team rankings. That is where things always tend to go awry on these boards because people from around the state will use the word "elite" or "special" for teams that might fit that description where they live, but those are much tougher words to earn in Hampton Roads. An "elite" team from other areas of the state will win a state title. An "elite" team from Tidewater can potentially be the best public school team in the country in a given year.

I think that Matt makes a mistake paraphrasing an old quote from Rivals where the states are being ranked primarily because he is ranking teams and their overall play while Rivals is generally coming at high school football from a recruiting perspective where their primary focus is on how many top-level recruits are being produced (although Rivals using clunky language like "Where is the best football played?", doesn't help make their point).

I've talked to several coaches from around the state who have coached both in and out of Tidewater and when I ask what is different about the locations, every single one of them has said, "people do just not understand how much talent that there is down there." Every single one.

Historically, there can be no argument about which area has produced the most Division I players, it's Tidewater. That fact, in terms of recruiting and in the eyes of Rivals, makes Tidewater number one. That would make them properly rated, in my opinion.

In terms of judging the overall team play between regions, that is all going to depend on how you look at it. Do you count the number of titles? Do you count the number of title game appearances? Do you look at the average of all the teams in the area? Do you ignore recruiting? Do you count 1A titles with the same weight that you count 6A championships? A lot of factors come into play there and "the best" area can be a different one depending on the criteria used. In that respect, the Tidewater can be considered overrated.

To me, the REAL data to use started in 2013 when the state was leveled on enrollment numbers. In about ten years, I think that we'll have a much clearer picture of which area is truly the best.




This post was edited on 1/11 10:21 AM by VaPrepsRod

 

[DEVILSLB99]

Re: New Ratings Beat

Originally posted by VaPrepsRod:

My interpretation of what he wrote is that, on whole, the 757 is overrated. Or, to put it in more mathematical terms, the "average" team in Tidewater is not better than the "average" team from other parts of the state. I tend to agree

So is this based on region alone or on classification? Is the average 4a South team worse or overrated compared to 4a North teams? Or is it based on "old" regions? If it is based on old regions then the middle of the pack team in the East is probably in 4a while a middle of the pack team in the old Northern region is probably in 6a. Now how much of a difference does it matter I don't know, but it makes for interesting thoughts.

 

[Mr. All Purpose]

Great article. I am a born and bred 757 guy. However I understand exactly what you are saying. I would like to pick your brain about one comment in the article though. The statement about Phoebus being the best team in your opinion. The Hampton team in 96 was maybe the best high school team I have ever seen. I'm a huge PD/Bay Rivers fan so I do realize the quality of the Phoebus dynasty. Those Hampton teams, especially Curry's junior year, were great. Why did you pick the Phoebus team over that particular Hampton team?