*** Follow 2021-22 VHSL Playoff Brackets Here ***
We're down to 48 teams - 24 boys and 24 girls - remaining in the hunt for VHSL State Basketball Championships for the 2021-22 school-year. With the State Tournament commencing this evening, it's a return to the previous format, pre-Covid, where both the regional title winner and runner-up advance to the State Playoffs. So instead of just four teams in each of the six regions alive, the field is double at eight.
Can a runner-up claim the title? Certainly. GW-Danville did it on the boys side as recent 2019 and Gate City on the girls side in 2020.
Below, we offer up Predictions with Scores and a 'Fast Fact,' for each of the games involving the fellas, while also projecting who comes out on top in the quarterfinals and by the end of the tourney for the ladies.
Let's get right to it and quickly review how the Picks have done this year and in recent tourneys...
Tuesday 3/1 Region Playoff Mark: 2-2 (50%)
Hatfield's 2022 Region Playoff Total: 156-45 (77.6%)
Hatfield's 2021 Region Playoff Record: 109-24 (82%)
Hatfield's 2020 Postseason Record: 207-60 (77.5%)
Hatfield's 2019 Region Playoff Record: 139-56 (71.3%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Playoff Record: 12-6 (67%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Finals Record: 3-3 (50%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Semis Record: 9-3 (75%)
VHSL State Quarterfinals - Friday 3/4/22:
BOYS:
Class 6:
Region D #2 Washington-Liberty (18-7) at Region C #1 Hayfield (29-0)
Hat's Hits - All five starters from last year's State Semifinalist team for the Hawks returned with Braylon Wheeler, Ashton Pratt, D.J. Holloway, Greg Jones and David King, each named 1st Team All-District. The group riding the state's longest winning streak at 29 has put up less than 50 points in a game only once (a 49-39 victory over Justice) and average 79.5 per contest.
Hat's Pick - Hayfield 78-62
Region C #2 Fairfax (20-6) at Region D #1 South Lakes (23-2)
Hat's Hits - Mike Desmond's senior-heavy Seahawks beat Washington-Liberty 56-47 in the Region 6D Final, giving the program its first regional title in 19 years. Junior guard Margad Choijilsuren (16.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.4 SPG) - the Patriot District Player of the Year and co-Occoquan Region 6C Player of the Year - leads a Lions team that prefers games to be played in the 40's and 50's rather than in the mid to upper 60's that South Lakes likes.
Hat's Pick - South Lakes 50-44
Region A #2 James River-Midlothian (18-4) at Region B #1 Patriot (25-0)
Hat's Hits - It has been a season to remember for the Pioneers under Head Coach Sherman Rivers as they are unbeaten to this point, beating a longtime thorn in their side in Potomac in a thrilling regional semifinal before taking down district rival Battlefield for the fourth time on the season to capture the Region 6B crown. They have a balanced attack, headed up by Cedar Run District Player of the Year Nasir Coleman (11.4 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 SPG). James River, under first-year Head Coach Jonathan Parker-Smith, will count on its defense to confound the Pioneers like it did to one of the state favorites - Landstown - during a 51-33 victory in the regional semis that made them March-bound.
Hat's Pick - Patriot 65-56
Region B #2 Battlefield (18-6) at Region A #1 Manchester (20-5)
Hat's Hits - The Lancers are a red hot team, avenging two earlier losses to James River by beating the Rapids 66-59 for the Region 6B crown. Every opponent they've seen they have held below 60 points with a trio of All-Region selections pacing them in Jamel McDuffie (11.5 PPG, 5 APG) and Dante Kearse (12 PPG, 8 RPG) as well as 2nd Team All-Region choice Makai Byerson, a bruiser from the football team. Can the Bobcats handle their aggressive defense? Battlefield may have only one double-figure scorer on average in Maddux Tennant (12.8 PPG), but don't let that fool you. They hit the offensive backboards with 245 offensive boards on the year, 54 by Ryan Derderian.
Hat's Pick - Manchester 64-63
State Final Pick - Hayfield over Patriot
Class 5:
Region D #2 Albemarle (21-5) at Region C #1 Highland Springs (20-4)
Hat's Hits - Longtime Albemarle Coach Greg Maynard is no stranger to big games with over 500 victories in his career. One of them came in the regional semis over Potomac Falls, 65-55, where Jason Breen had a double-double of 26 points and 11 rebounds. Breen will be important against a Springers team chock full of multi-sport athletes from their powerhouse football team. Highland Springs also has maybe the most prolific scorer left in this Class 5 bracket in Dorian Davis, a guard who poured in 32 points in a 61-49 victory over an L.C. Bird team that was the Region 5B's top seed.
Hat's Pick - Highland Springs 62-60
Region C #2 Glen Allen (18-5) at Region D #1 Riverside (17-11)
Hat's Hits - Glen Allen's last State Tournament win came in 1948, whereas Riverside is looking for its first as the Rams fell in the quarterfinals to Patrick Henry-Roanoke in its previous appearance back in 2020. The Jaguars couldn't hold a 12-0 lead to start in its 61-54 loss to Highland Springs in the Region 5C Championship, whereas Riverside - 11-of-21 shooting from behind the arc - rolled to a 72-54 triumph over Albemarle for the Region 5D crown as Jaden Frazier and Cam Koscinski combined for 30 points with 24 of those coming on 3's.
Hat's Pick - Riverside 57-50
Region A #2 Indian River (19-5) at Region B #1 Maury (23-2; 20-2)
Hat's Hits - Maury is playing stifling defense, allowing 38 points per game. Brandon Plummer led the Commodores to a state title in 2019 and believes this team has similar potential with Eastern District Player of the Year Brian Alexander and fellow 1st Team All-District performer Cameron Jones-Hood leading a squad that makes up for what it lacks in terms of height with hard-nosed defense and hustle. Indian River, under first-year Head Coach Justin Brandt, is in the State Playoffs for the first time since 1996. The Braves will need to get more touches for 6-foot-5 jumping-jack Zion Lloyd, who had a dunk on just two field goal attempts in the Region 5A Final vs. Bayside.
Hat's Pick - Maury 50-37
Region B #2 Menchville (19-6) at Region A #1 Bayside (10-8)
Hat's Hits - It's an incredible story for Bayside to go from 7-8 and the No. 7 seed to begin the Region 5A Tournament, to capturing the crown on their way to earning the program's first State Playoff trip since 1991 when they won the second of their back-to-back Group AAA State Championships. Led by senior PG Landon Russ, the Marlins shot 51.2% inside the arc in their 60-47 victory over Indian River. Meanwhile, Menchville, under the direction of former NBA player and Christopher Newport University great Lamont Strothers, is in the State Playoffs for the first time since 1996 when they fell to Hopewell 71-66 in overtime in the quarterfinals. With ten players 6-foot-2 or taller, including 6'10" center Dallas Kendall, the Monarchs could pose problems for Bayside with its size and length.
Hat's Pick - Menchville 68-54
State Final Pick - Maury over Highland Springs
Class 4:
Region D #2 E.C. Glass (21-5) at Region C #1 Loudon County (21-6)
Hat's Hits - D.J. Best his the Hilltoppers of E.C. Glass trying to get to the State Final Four for the first time since 2015 when they fell to King's Fork. Seminole District Player of the Year Omaundre Harris keys their attack with support coming from the likes of sharp-shooter Aidan Treacy, defensive anchor Owen Dunlop and second unit sparkplug Jason Knox. Loudoun County, which erased a 13-point fourth quarter deficit in its 61-57 overtime win over Loudoun Valley for the Region 4C title, has four players with 28 made 3's or more on the campaign. That doesn't include interior terror George Mwesigwa (13.5 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG).
Hat's Pick - Loudoun County 59-57
Region C #2 Loudoun Valley (22-5) at Region D #1 Western Albemarle (23-1)
Hat's Hits - This Loudoun Valley team isn't quite as potent as the one led by Miami swingman Jordan Miller that blitzed Jamestown to win the Class 4 State Finals in 2017. That said, Ben Hall had 15 points and 15 rebounds in their Region 4C title game loss to Loudoun County in overtime, and sophomore guard Jayden Johnson is a consistent shot-maker. They'll need them both to be on point and then some to take down a Western Albemarle squad, coached by veteran Darren Maynard, that only suffered a loss in December to Region 5D Champ Riverside. Since then, they've won 16 straight with Jefferson District Player of the Year Joshua Sime, controlling things in the painted area at 6-foot-8.
Hat's Pick - Western Albemarle 55-49
Region A #2 Jamestown (20-4) at Region B #1 Varina (22-1)
Hat's Hits - Two years ago as sophomores, Alphonzo Billups (VCU commit), Christian Carden and Amari Baylor led Varina to its fourth straight State Tournament trip. Though they were denied the crown in a quarterfinal loss to Green Run at Norfolk State, it proved a valuable learn lesson and experience for them as they try to complete the task this winter. To do so, containing Jamestown star guard Xavier Brown (27.7 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG, 2.8 SPG), who won a state title in 2019 as a freshman at Surry, is a must.
Hat's Pick - Varina 73-61
Region B #2 Henrico (17-7) at Region A #1 King's Fork (23-0)
Hat's Hits - This King's Fork team has done something that neither their 2020 or 2009 title winning groups did and that is enter the State Tournament with an undefeated record. They've done it with balance, versatility and depth as seven different players average six or more points per contest for Coach Rick Hite with Region 4A Player of the Year George Beale (23 PPG, 9 RPG) headlining the machine. First-year Henrico Head Coach Nick Leonardelli doesn't have quite the firepower of Warriors State Championship teams from 2015 and 2013 enjoyed under Vance Harmon. But the former college assistant coach has a confident junior guard in Jaden Walker (14.3 PPG, 42 3's) relishing the opportunity to halt a long win string like they did when they ended Eastern View's 20-game victory streak in the regional semis.
Hat's Pick - King's Fork 75-60
State Final Pick - Varina over Western Albemarle
Class 3:
Region D #2 Northside (22-5) at Region C #1 Spotswood (18-6)
Hat's Hits - It's a re-match of the 2018 State Tournament quarterfinals, where then unbeaten Northside handled Spotswood 72-47 before a 68-64 overtime loss to Western Albemarle in the semis. While Spotswood is coming off its seventh regional title in program history and riding a 10-game winning streak, Northside is in the State Tournament Final 8 for the eighth straight time. A couple of 1000-points scorers will be on display with Carmelo Pacheco of Spotswood and Ayrion Journiette for Northside, both legit State POY candidates.
Hat's Pick - Northside 74-73 in 2 OT's
Region C #2 Fluvanna (17-8) at Region D #1 Cave Spring (25-1)
Hat’s Hits - From the No. 7 seed in Region 3C to the State Tournament, the Flucos of Fluvanna made some history thanks to the backcourt trio of four-year starter Kobe Edmonds (17.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.9 SPG), junior Bobby Gardner (16.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.9 APG) and Lance Bruce (14.3 PPG, 45% 3’s). In the regional semis against Liberty Christian, Bruce put up a career-high 32 points. Jacob Gruse’s Knights of Cave Spring have not lost since getting edged 71-68 in December by Northside, who they’d later beat in the next two meetings. That included going 25-of-28 from the foul line in their 63-60 win over the Vikings for the Region 3D crown. Six-foot-8 junior Dylan Saunders scored 25 points in that victory and is one five different Cave Spring players to score in double-figures this postseason.
Hat's Pick - Cave Spring 78-64
Region A #2 Hopewell (15-8) at Region B #1 Skyline (18-7)
Hat’s Hits - It’s a brand new looking team for Coach Elvin Edmonds at Hopewell, whose squad won the Class 3 state title last year behind his son, Elvin IV (who’s now at Bucknell). After a 12-3 start, they’re just 3-5 the past eight games. What will test Skyline is the backcourt tandem of senior Tyheim Love (17.7 PPG) and sophomore Cameron Mise (19.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.9 SPG), who together have knocked down 79 3’s. Junior guard Zack Diggs was instrumental in the Hawks earning their first State Tournament berth ever as he sank a pair of free-throws with four seconds left on a night when he finished with 23 points in their 76-75 comeback win over Caroline in the Region 3B semis.
Hat's Pick - Hopewell 66-61
Region B #2 William Monroe (18-4) at Region A #1 Petersburg (20-3)
Hat’s Hits - Petersburg is expected to make its 14th State Final Four appearance, but first since 2012 as Ryan Massenburg’s group has been on a roll with three victories this season against rival and reigning State Champ Hopewell. Crimson Wave junior forward Christopher Fields (18.6 PPG, 11.5 RPG) has been ultra-consistent with 17 double-doubles while shooting 51.8% from the field. If there’s an area William Monroe hopes to take advantage of its shooting because the Wave shoot just 22.3% from behind the arc and 56.4% at the foul line. The Dragons rely on the quartet of junior point guard Tucker Shifflett (18.7 PPG, 4 APG), senior guard Troy Jones (15.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG), senior guard Ja’Quis Carpenter (10.7 PPG, 43% 3’s) and freshman forward Brady Lam (9.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG).
Hat's Pick - Petersburg 73-63
State Final Pick - Cave Spring over Petersburg
Class 2:
Region D #2 Virginia High (20-8) vs. Region C #1 Radford (18-4) at Roanoke College
Hat's Hits - This is Virginia High’s first trip to the State Playoffs since falling to Radford 59-42 in the quarterfinals in 2013. Bobcats Head Coach Rick Cormany recently moved into third place all-time on the VHSL’s wins list with 748 and he’s just three victories away from a seventh state title. His son, Gavin, dropped a season-high with 25 points in a win over Virginia High during December. Turning Radford over (they commit just 9.8 giveaways per contest) will be hard for the Bearcats.
Hat’s Pick - Radford 52-42
Region C #2 James River-Buchanan (20-4) at Region D #1 Union (22-5)
Hat’s Hits - Even though sharp shooter Alex Rasnick graduated and skilled forward Sean Cusano transferred out, the Bears still have aspirations of repeating as State Champs, thanks in large part to 6-foot-6 forward Bradley Bunch (26 PPG, 10 RPG), the reigning VHSCA Class 2 State Player of the Year. There’s plenty of weaponry on the other side for the Knights of James River, though, under Head Coach Ethan Humphries, a former standout player in his own right. Seniors Patrick Clevenger, Corey Easton and 1000-point scorer Jayson Easton highlight an attack that piled up 86 points on traditional Class 4 contender GW-Danville earlier this season.
Hat's Pick - James River 70-66 in OT
Region A #2 East Rockingham (23-5) vs. Region B #1 John Marshall (19-5) at Huguenot
Hat's Hits - There’s some irony to this matchup as the VHSL’s all-time leading scorer, UNC signee Tyler Nickel (35 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 4.1 APG), faces a John Marshall team coached by Ty White, the director of the Team Loaded AAU travel team that the star East Rock forward has played for on the grassroots circuit. During Nickel’s sophomore year, John Marshall ousted the Eagles, 78-44, in the State Semis. The Justices are always stacked with talent and this tourney can be a showcase of the athleticism of junior swingman Dennis Parker Jr., who’s rated as one of the Top 100 prospects nationally in the Class of 2023.
Hat's Pick - John Marshall 93-79
Region B #2 Greensville (14-2) at Region A #1 Central-Woodstock (21-7)
Hat’s Hits - - The lopsided 85-41 loss to John Marshall in the Region 2A Finals might not be indicative of Greensville’s true capabilities. A better gauge may be their 60-27 rout of Amelia County in the regional quarters, where they came up with 21 steals, six by senior forward Isaiah Stephens, and had 11 different players score with senior guard Cedric Wilkins pacing them with 13 points. Central-Woodstock will test them with outside shooting as Jacob Walters (9.5 PPG), Ashton Baker (10.8 PPG) and Ryan Barr (10 PPG) have combined to knock down 125 treys. Baker had 21 points in the 73-70 double-overtime triumph over East Rock in the Region 2B title game.
Hat's Pick - Central-Woodstock 66-57
State Final Pick - John Marshall over James River-Buchanan
Class 1:
Region D #2 Eastside (18-10) at Region C #1 Auburn (19-8)
Hat's Hits - Headed to Division II St. Thomas Aquinas in New York, guard Ethan Millirons (21.6 PPG, 67 3’s) holds numerous Auburn school records with 1777 career points and 411 career assists. On the year, the Eagles put up just over 62 points per contest, but will be hard-pressed to approach that total against an Eastside team under Patrick Damron that allowed less than 43 points per game during the Region 1D Tournament. The Spartans, who are in the State Playoffs for the sixth time in seven years, will need some scoring to emerge around their matchup problem and that’s 6-fooot-5 junior forward Eli McCoy (16.4 PPG, 10.5 RPG). Eastside edged Auburn 63-60 in OT in the 2019 quarterfinals, whereas Auburn got revenge with a 47-44 victory a year later in the quarters.
Hat's Pick - Auburn 47-44
Region C #2 Fort Chiswell (23-5) at Region D #1 Twin Springs (18-8)
Hat’s Hits - After losing to Eastside in the Cumberland District Tournament Finals, Twin Springs recovered to win the next meeting with the Spartans, a 35-29 defensive slugfest. Don’t let that score deceive you in regards to the shooting ability of this Titans team, however. Connor Lane (18 PPG) and Bradley Owens (17 PPG) both are 1000-point scorers with Owens having drawn 32 of their 40 charges taken. Fort Chiswell pulled one of the surprises of this postseason when it ousted reigning State Champ Parry McCluer, 54-45 in the regional semis. Siler Watson, who scored 28 points in that triumph, is the straw that stirs the drink with a pair of triple-doubles to this credit this year.
Hat's Pick - Twin Springs 60-58
Region A #2 Washington & Lee (15-7) at Region B #1 Altavista (17-6)
Hat's Hits - For the second consecutive year, Casey Johnson’s Colonels are in the State Tournament after claiming a regional title. Junior forward Stuart Hunt, who earned Dogwood District and Region 1B Player of the Year honors, is six points away from 1000 for his career. Altavista will have to contend with a Washington & Lee team that can function in a higher or lower scoring game, as seen by winning with 56 vs. West Point and 75 against Essex this postseason. They need All-Northern Neck District performers Brandon Washington and Darius Harris to produce in a big way for them.
Hat's Pick - Altavista 56-49
Region B #2 Buffalo Gap (18-6) at Region A #1 Lancaster (23-1)
Hat's Hits - What a season it has been for Dwayne Pinn's Red Devils, who have an opportunity to finish with a better winning percentage than their 2018 or 2012 state title winning teams. Freshman guard Troy Henderson (19.5 PPG, 82 3's), the Region 1A and Northern Neck District Player of the Year, has been one of best bucket getters at the Class 1 level and gets help from a host of players, specifically his brother in junior Tyson Henderson (18.5 PPG) and Darius Smith (12 PPG). Junior guard Bennett Bowers exploded for 36 points in a December win over Luray for Buffalo Gap, which is making its first State Tournament appearance since 1994 and will need to play its best defensive game of the season to slow down the speedy Red Devils.
Hat's Pick - Lancaster 69-53
State Final Pick - Lancaster over Auburn
GIRLS:
Class 6:
Region D #2 Langley (19-5) at Region C #1 James Robinson (26-2)
Hat's Pick - James Robinson
Region C #2 Thomas Edison (24-4) at Region D #1 James Madison (24-2)
Hat's Pick - James Madison in OT
Region A #2 James River-Midlothian (20-3) at Region B #1 Osbourn Park (24-1)
Hat's Pick - Osbourn Park
Region B #2 Woodbridge (18-7) at Region A #1 Thomas Dale (19-4)
Hat's Pick - Thomas Dale
State Final Pick - Osbourn Park over Madison in OT
Class 5:
Region D #2 Briar Woods (16-8) at Region C #1 Glen Allen (22-2)
Hat's Pick - Glen Allen
Region C #2 Highland Springs (16-5) at Region D #1 Woodgrove (27-0)
Hat's Pick - Woodgrove
Region A #2 Kempsville (18-6) at Region B #1 Menchville (20-3)
Hat's Pick - Kempsville in OT
Region B #2 Norview (18-6; 17-5) at Region A #1 Princess Anne (18-1)
Hat's Pick - Princess Anne
State Final Pick - Princess Anne over Woodgrove
Class 4:
Region D #2 E.C. Glass (22-4) at Region C #1 Millbrook (23-2)
Hat's Pick - Millbrook
Region C #2 Sherando (20-6) at Region D #1 Pulaski County (23-3)
Hat's Pick - Pulaski County
Region A #2 Manor (22-5; 19-5) at Region B #1 Eastern View (20-2)
Hat's Pick - Eastern View
Region B #2 Powhatan (17-8) at Region A #1 King's Fork (21-3)
Hat's Pick - King's Fork
State Final Pick - King's Fork over Pulaski County
Class 3:
Region D #2 Staunton River (25-1) at Region C #1 Spotswood (17-7)
Hat's Pick - Staunton River in OT
Region C #2 Fort Defiance (20-4) at Region D #1 Carroll County (22-1)
Hat's Pick - Carroll County
Region A #2 New Kent (15-8) at Region B #1 Meridian (22-1)
Hat's Pick - Meridian
Region B #2 Brentsville District (17-4) at Region A #1 Lakeland (14-6)
Hat's Pick - Lakeland
State Final Pick - Carroll County over Meridian
Class 2:
Region D #2 Gate City (17-12) vs. Region C #1 Radford (15-6) at Roanoke College
Hat's Pick - Gate City
Region C #2 Alleghany (17-7) at Region D #1 Central-Wise (23-5)
Hat's Pick - Central-Wise
Region A #2 Brunswick (17-7) at Region B #1 Luray (24-2)
Hat's Pick - Luray
Region B #2 Clarke County (17-9) vs. Region A #1 John Marshall (16-6) at Huguenot
Hat's Pick - John Marshall
State Final Pick - Central-Wise over Luray
Class 1:
Region D #2 Grundy (17-9) at Region C #1 Parry McCluer (25-1)
Hat's Pick - Parry McCluer
Region C #2 Auburn (20-6) at Region D #1 Honaker (24-3)
Hat's Pick - Honaker
Region A #2 Rappahannock (15-7) at Region B #1 Rappahannock County (15-11)
Hat's Pick - Rappahannock
Region B #2 Buffalo Gap (14-11) at Region A #1 West Point (19-2)
Hat's Pick - West Point
State Final Pick - Honaker over West Point
We're down to 48 teams - 24 boys and 24 girls - remaining in the hunt for VHSL State Basketball Championships for the 2021-22 school-year. With the State Tournament commencing this evening, it's a return to the previous format, pre-Covid, where both the regional title winner and runner-up advance to the State Playoffs. So instead of just four teams in each of the six regions alive, the field is double at eight.
Can a runner-up claim the title? Certainly. GW-Danville did it on the boys side as recent 2019 and Gate City on the girls side in 2020.
Below, we offer up Predictions with Scores and a 'Fast Fact,' for each of the games involving the fellas, while also projecting who comes out on top in the quarterfinals and by the end of the tourney for the ladies.
Let's get right to it and quickly review how the Picks have done this year and in recent tourneys...
Tuesday 3/1 Region Playoff Mark: 2-2 (50%)
Hatfield's 2022 Region Playoff Total: 156-45 (77.6%)
Hatfield's 2021 Region Playoff Record: 109-24 (82%)
Hatfield's 2020 Postseason Record: 207-60 (77.5%)
Hatfield's 2019 Region Playoff Record: 139-56 (71.3%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Playoff Record: 12-6 (67%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Finals Record: 3-3 (50%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Semis Record: 9-3 (75%)
VHSL State Quarterfinals - Friday 3/4/22:
BOYS:
Class 6:
Region D #2 Washington-Liberty (18-7) at Region C #1 Hayfield (29-0)
Hat's Hits - All five starters from last year's State Semifinalist team for the Hawks returned with Braylon Wheeler, Ashton Pratt, D.J. Holloway, Greg Jones and David King, each named 1st Team All-District. The group riding the state's longest winning streak at 29 has put up less than 50 points in a game only once (a 49-39 victory over Justice) and average 79.5 per contest.
Hat's Pick - Hayfield 78-62
Region C #2 Fairfax (20-6) at Region D #1 South Lakes (23-2)
Hat's Hits - Mike Desmond's senior-heavy Seahawks beat Washington-Liberty 56-47 in the Region 6D Final, giving the program its first regional title in 19 years. Junior guard Margad Choijilsuren (16.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.4 SPG) - the Patriot District Player of the Year and co-Occoquan Region 6C Player of the Year - leads a Lions team that prefers games to be played in the 40's and 50's rather than in the mid to upper 60's that South Lakes likes.
Hat's Pick - South Lakes 50-44
Region A #2 James River-Midlothian (18-4) at Region B #1 Patriot (25-0)
Hat's Hits - It has been a season to remember for the Pioneers under Head Coach Sherman Rivers as they are unbeaten to this point, beating a longtime thorn in their side in Potomac in a thrilling regional semifinal before taking down district rival Battlefield for the fourth time on the season to capture the Region 6B crown. They have a balanced attack, headed up by Cedar Run District Player of the Year Nasir Coleman (11.4 PPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 SPG). James River, under first-year Head Coach Jonathan Parker-Smith, will count on its defense to confound the Pioneers like it did to one of the state favorites - Landstown - during a 51-33 victory in the regional semis that made them March-bound.
Hat's Pick - Patriot 65-56
Region B #2 Battlefield (18-6) at Region A #1 Manchester (20-5)
Hat's Hits - The Lancers are a red hot team, avenging two earlier losses to James River by beating the Rapids 66-59 for the Region 6B crown. Every opponent they've seen they have held below 60 points with a trio of All-Region selections pacing them in Jamel McDuffie (11.5 PPG, 5 APG) and Dante Kearse (12 PPG, 8 RPG) as well as 2nd Team All-Region choice Makai Byerson, a bruiser from the football team. Can the Bobcats handle their aggressive defense? Battlefield may have only one double-figure scorer on average in Maddux Tennant (12.8 PPG), but don't let that fool you. They hit the offensive backboards with 245 offensive boards on the year, 54 by Ryan Derderian.
Hat's Pick - Manchester 64-63
State Final Pick - Hayfield over Patriot
Class 5:
Region D #2 Albemarle (21-5) at Region C #1 Highland Springs (20-4)
Hat's Hits - Longtime Albemarle Coach Greg Maynard is no stranger to big games with over 500 victories in his career. One of them came in the regional semis over Potomac Falls, 65-55, where Jason Breen had a double-double of 26 points and 11 rebounds. Breen will be important against a Springers team chock full of multi-sport athletes from their powerhouse football team. Highland Springs also has maybe the most prolific scorer left in this Class 5 bracket in Dorian Davis, a guard who poured in 32 points in a 61-49 victory over an L.C. Bird team that was the Region 5B's top seed.
Hat's Pick - Highland Springs 62-60
Region C #2 Glen Allen (18-5) at Region D #1 Riverside (17-11)
Hat's Hits - Glen Allen's last State Tournament win came in 1948, whereas Riverside is looking for its first as the Rams fell in the quarterfinals to Patrick Henry-Roanoke in its previous appearance back in 2020. The Jaguars couldn't hold a 12-0 lead to start in its 61-54 loss to Highland Springs in the Region 5C Championship, whereas Riverside - 11-of-21 shooting from behind the arc - rolled to a 72-54 triumph over Albemarle for the Region 5D crown as Jaden Frazier and Cam Koscinski combined for 30 points with 24 of those coming on 3's.
Hat's Pick - Riverside 57-50
Region A #2 Indian River (19-5) at Region B #1 Maury (23-2; 20-2)
Hat's Hits - Maury is playing stifling defense, allowing 38 points per game. Brandon Plummer led the Commodores to a state title in 2019 and believes this team has similar potential with Eastern District Player of the Year Brian Alexander and fellow 1st Team All-District performer Cameron Jones-Hood leading a squad that makes up for what it lacks in terms of height with hard-nosed defense and hustle. Indian River, under first-year Head Coach Justin Brandt, is in the State Playoffs for the first time since 1996. The Braves will need to get more touches for 6-foot-5 jumping-jack Zion Lloyd, who had a dunk on just two field goal attempts in the Region 5A Final vs. Bayside.
Hat's Pick - Maury 50-37
Region B #2 Menchville (19-6) at Region A #1 Bayside (10-8)
Hat's Hits - It's an incredible story for Bayside to go from 7-8 and the No. 7 seed to begin the Region 5A Tournament, to capturing the crown on their way to earning the program's first State Playoff trip since 1991 when they won the second of their back-to-back Group AAA State Championships. Led by senior PG Landon Russ, the Marlins shot 51.2% inside the arc in their 60-47 victory over Indian River. Meanwhile, Menchville, under the direction of former NBA player and Christopher Newport University great Lamont Strothers, is in the State Playoffs for the first time since 1996 when they fell to Hopewell 71-66 in overtime in the quarterfinals. With ten players 6-foot-2 or taller, including 6'10" center Dallas Kendall, the Monarchs could pose problems for Bayside with its size and length.
Hat's Pick - Menchville 68-54
State Final Pick - Maury over Highland Springs
Class 4:
Region D #2 E.C. Glass (21-5) at Region C #1 Loudon County (21-6)
Hat's Hits - D.J. Best his the Hilltoppers of E.C. Glass trying to get to the State Final Four for the first time since 2015 when they fell to King's Fork. Seminole District Player of the Year Omaundre Harris keys their attack with support coming from the likes of sharp-shooter Aidan Treacy, defensive anchor Owen Dunlop and second unit sparkplug Jason Knox. Loudoun County, which erased a 13-point fourth quarter deficit in its 61-57 overtime win over Loudoun Valley for the Region 4C title, has four players with 28 made 3's or more on the campaign. That doesn't include interior terror George Mwesigwa (13.5 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG).
Hat's Pick - Loudoun County 59-57
Region C #2 Loudoun Valley (22-5) at Region D #1 Western Albemarle (23-1)
Hat's Hits - This Loudoun Valley team isn't quite as potent as the one led by Miami swingman Jordan Miller that blitzed Jamestown to win the Class 4 State Finals in 2017. That said, Ben Hall had 15 points and 15 rebounds in their Region 4C title game loss to Loudoun County in overtime, and sophomore guard Jayden Johnson is a consistent shot-maker. They'll need them both to be on point and then some to take down a Western Albemarle squad, coached by veteran Darren Maynard, that only suffered a loss in December to Region 5D Champ Riverside. Since then, they've won 16 straight with Jefferson District Player of the Year Joshua Sime, controlling things in the painted area at 6-foot-8.
Hat's Pick - Western Albemarle 55-49
Region A #2 Jamestown (20-4) at Region B #1 Varina (22-1)
Hat's Hits - Two years ago as sophomores, Alphonzo Billups (VCU commit), Christian Carden and Amari Baylor led Varina to its fourth straight State Tournament trip. Though they were denied the crown in a quarterfinal loss to Green Run at Norfolk State, it proved a valuable learn lesson and experience for them as they try to complete the task this winter. To do so, containing Jamestown star guard Xavier Brown (27.7 PPG, 6.8 APG, 6.6 RPG, 2.8 SPG), who won a state title in 2019 as a freshman at Surry, is a must.
Hat's Pick - Varina 73-61
Region B #2 Henrico (17-7) at Region A #1 King's Fork (23-0)
Hat's Hits - This King's Fork team has done something that neither their 2020 or 2009 title winning groups did and that is enter the State Tournament with an undefeated record. They've done it with balance, versatility and depth as seven different players average six or more points per contest for Coach Rick Hite with Region 4A Player of the Year George Beale (23 PPG, 9 RPG) headlining the machine. First-year Henrico Head Coach Nick Leonardelli doesn't have quite the firepower of Warriors State Championship teams from 2015 and 2013 enjoyed under Vance Harmon. But the former college assistant coach has a confident junior guard in Jaden Walker (14.3 PPG, 42 3's) relishing the opportunity to halt a long win string like they did when they ended Eastern View's 20-game victory streak in the regional semis.
Hat's Pick - King's Fork 75-60
State Final Pick - Varina over Western Albemarle
Class 3:
Region D #2 Northside (22-5) at Region C #1 Spotswood (18-6)
Hat's Hits - It's a re-match of the 2018 State Tournament quarterfinals, where then unbeaten Northside handled Spotswood 72-47 before a 68-64 overtime loss to Western Albemarle in the semis. While Spotswood is coming off its seventh regional title in program history and riding a 10-game winning streak, Northside is in the State Tournament Final 8 for the eighth straight time. A couple of 1000-points scorers will be on display with Carmelo Pacheco of Spotswood and Ayrion Journiette for Northside, both legit State POY candidates.
Hat's Pick - Northside 74-73 in 2 OT's
Region C #2 Fluvanna (17-8) at Region D #1 Cave Spring (25-1)
Hat’s Hits - From the No. 7 seed in Region 3C to the State Tournament, the Flucos of Fluvanna made some history thanks to the backcourt trio of four-year starter Kobe Edmonds (17.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.9 SPG), junior Bobby Gardner (16.9 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.9 APG) and Lance Bruce (14.3 PPG, 45% 3’s). In the regional semis against Liberty Christian, Bruce put up a career-high 32 points. Jacob Gruse’s Knights of Cave Spring have not lost since getting edged 71-68 in December by Northside, who they’d later beat in the next two meetings. That included going 25-of-28 from the foul line in their 63-60 win over the Vikings for the Region 3D crown. Six-foot-8 junior Dylan Saunders scored 25 points in that victory and is one five different Cave Spring players to score in double-figures this postseason.
Hat's Pick - Cave Spring 78-64
Region A #2 Hopewell (15-8) at Region B #1 Skyline (18-7)
Hat’s Hits - It’s a brand new looking team for Coach Elvin Edmonds at Hopewell, whose squad won the Class 3 state title last year behind his son, Elvin IV (who’s now at Bucknell). After a 12-3 start, they’re just 3-5 the past eight games. What will test Skyline is the backcourt tandem of senior Tyheim Love (17.7 PPG) and sophomore Cameron Mise (19.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.9 SPG), who together have knocked down 79 3’s. Junior guard Zack Diggs was instrumental in the Hawks earning their first State Tournament berth ever as he sank a pair of free-throws with four seconds left on a night when he finished with 23 points in their 76-75 comeback win over Caroline in the Region 3B semis.
Hat's Pick - Hopewell 66-61
Region B #2 William Monroe (18-4) at Region A #1 Petersburg (20-3)
Hat’s Hits - Petersburg is expected to make its 14th State Final Four appearance, but first since 2012 as Ryan Massenburg’s group has been on a roll with three victories this season against rival and reigning State Champ Hopewell. Crimson Wave junior forward Christopher Fields (18.6 PPG, 11.5 RPG) has been ultra-consistent with 17 double-doubles while shooting 51.8% from the field. If there’s an area William Monroe hopes to take advantage of its shooting because the Wave shoot just 22.3% from behind the arc and 56.4% at the foul line. The Dragons rely on the quartet of junior point guard Tucker Shifflett (18.7 PPG, 4 APG), senior guard Troy Jones (15.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG), senior guard Ja’Quis Carpenter (10.7 PPG, 43% 3’s) and freshman forward Brady Lam (9.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG).
Hat's Pick - Petersburg 73-63
State Final Pick - Cave Spring over Petersburg
Class 2:
Region D #2 Virginia High (20-8) vs. Region C #1 Radford (18-4) at Roanoke College
Hat's Hits - This is Virginia High’s first trip to the State Playoffs since falling to Radford 59-42 in the quarterfinals in 2013. Bobcats Head Coach Rick Cormany recently moved into third place all-time on the VHSL’s wins list with 748 and he’s just three victories away from a seventh state title. His son, Gavin, dropped a season-high with 25 points in a win over Virginia High during December. Turning Radford over (they commit just 9.8 giveaways per contest) will be hard for the Bearcats.
Hat’s Pick - Radford 52-42
Region C #2 James River-Buchanan (20-4) at Region D #1 Union (22-5)
Hat’s Hits - Even though sharp shooter Alex Rasnick graduated and skilled forward Sean Cusano transferred out, the Bears still have aspirations of repeating as State Champs, thanks in large part to 6-foot-6 forward Bradley Bunch (26 PPG, 10 RPG), the reigning VHSCA Class 2 State Player of the Year. There’s plenty of weaponry on the other side for the Knights of James River, though, under Head Coach Ethan Humphries, a former standout player in his own right. Seniors Patrick Clevenger, Corey Easton and 1000-point scorer Jayson Easton highlight an attack that piled up 86 points on traditional Class 4 contender GW-Danville earlier this season.
Hat's Pick - James River 70-66 in OT
Region A #2 East Rockingham (23-5) vs. Region B #1 John Marshall (19-5) at Huguenot
Hat's Hits - There’s some irony to this matchup as the VHSL’s all-time leading scorer, UNC signee Tyler Nickel (35 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 4.1 APG), faces a John Marshall team coached by Ty White, the director of the Team Loaded AAU travel team that the star East Rock forward has played for on the grassroots circuit. During Nickel’s sophomore year, John Marshall ousted the Eagles, 78-44, in the State Semis. The Justices are always stacked with talent and this tourney can be a showcase of the athleticism of junior swingman Dennis Parker Jr., who’s rated as one of the Top 100 prospects nationally in the Class of 2023.
Hat's Pick - John Marshall 93-79
Region B #2 Greensville (14-2) at Region A #1 Central-Woodstock (21-7)
Hat’s Hits - - The lopsided 85-41 loss to John Marshall in the Region 2A Finals might not be indicative of Greensville’s true capabilities. A better gauge may be their 60-27 rout of Amelia County in the regional quarters, where they came up with 21 steals, six by senior forward Isaiah Stephens, and had 11 different players score with senior guard Cedric Wilkins pacing them with 13 points. Central-Woodstock will test them with outside shooting as Jacob Walters (9.5 PPG), Ashton Baker (10.8 PPG) and Ryan Barr (10 PPG) have combined to knock down 125 treys. Baker had 21 points in the 73-70 double-overtime triumph over East Rock in the Region 2B title game.
Hat's Pick - Central-Woodstock 66-57
State Final Pick - John Marshall over James River-Buchanan
Class 1:
Region D #2 Eastside (18-10) at Region C #1 Auburn (19-8)
Hat's Hits - Headed to Division II St. Thomas Aquinas in New York, guard Ethan Millirons (21.6 PPG, 67 3’s) holds numerous Auburn school records with 1777 career points and 411 career assists. On the year, the Eagles put up just over 62 points per contest, but will be hard-pressed to approach that total against an Eastside team under Patrick Damron that allowed less than 43 points per game during the Region 1D Tournament. The Spartans, who are in the State Playoffs for the sixth time in seven years, will need some scoring to emerge around their matchup problem and that’s 6-fooot-5 junior forward Eli McCoy (16.4 PPG, 10.5 RPG). Eastside edged Auburn 63-60 in OT in the 2019 quarterfinals, whereas Auburn got revenge with a 47-44 victory a year later in the quarters.
Hat's Pick - Auburn 47-44
Region C #2 Fort Chiswell (23-5) at Region D #1 Twin Springs (18-8)
Hat’s Hits - After losing to Eastside in the Cumberland District Tournament Finals, Twin Springs recovered to win the next meeting with the Spartans, a 35-29 defensive slugfest. Don’t let that score deceive you in regards to the shooting ability of this Titans team, however. Connor Lane (18 PPG) and Bradley Owens (17 PPG) both are 1000-point scorers with Owens having drawn 32 of their 40 charges taken. Fort Chiswell pulled one of the surprises of this postseason when it ousted reigning State Champ Parry McCluer, 54-45 in the regional semis. Siler Watson, who scored 28 points in that triumph, is the straw that stirs the drink with a pair of triple-doubles to this credit this year.
Hat's Pick - Twin Springs 60-58
Region A #2 Washington & Lee (15-7) at Region B #1 Altavista (17-6)
Hat's Hits - For the second consecutive year, Casey Johnson’s Colonels are in the State Tournament after claiming a regional title. Junior forward Stuart Hunt, who earned Dogwood District and Region 1B Player of the Year honors, is six points away from 1000 for his career. Altavista will have to contend with a Washington & Lee team that can function in a higher or lower scoring game, as seen by winning with 56 vs. West Point and 75 against Essex this postseason. They need All-Northern Neck District performers Brandon Washington and Darius Harris to produce in a big way for them.
Hat's Pick - Altavista 56-49
Region B #2 Buffalo Gap (18-6) at Region A #1 Lancaster (23-1)
Hat's Hits - What a season it has been for Dwayne Pinn's Red Devils, who have an opportunity to finish with a better winning percentage than their 2018 or 2012 state title winning teams. Freshman guard Troy Henderson (19.5 PPG, 82 3's), the Region 1A and Northern Neck District Player of the Year, has been one of best bucket getters at the Class 1 level and gets help from a host of players, specifically his brother in junior Tyson Henderson (18.5 PPG) and Darius Smith (12 PPG). Junior guard Bennett Bowers exploded for 36 points in a December win over Luray for Buffalo Gap, which is making its first State Tournament appearance since 1994 and will need to play its best defensive game of the season to slow down the speedy Red Devils.
Hat's Pick - Lancaster 69-53
State Final Pick - Lancaster over Auburn
GIRLS:
Class 6:
Region D #2 Langley (19-5) at Region C #1 James Robinson (26-2)
Hat's Pick - James Robinson
Region C #2 Thomas Edison (24-4) at Region D #1 James Madison (24-2)
Hat's Pick - James Madison in OT
Region A #2 James River-Midlothian (20-3) at Region B #1 Osbourn Park (24-1)
Hat's Pick - Osbourn Park
Region B #2 Woodbridge (18-7) at Region A #1 Thomas Dale (19-4)
Hat's Pick - Thomas Dale
State Final Pick - Osbourn Park over Madison in OT
Class 5:
Region D #2 Briar Woods (16-8) at Region C #1 Glen Allen (22-2)
Hat's Pick - Glen Allen
Region C #2 Highland Springs (16-5) at Region D #1 Woodgrove (27-0)
Hat's Pick - Woodgrove
Region A #2 Kempsville (18-6) at Region B #1 Menchville (20-3)
Hat's Pick - Kempsville in OT
Region B #2 Norview (18-6; 17-5) at Region A #1 Princess Anne (18-1)
Hat's Pick - Princess Anne
State Final Pick - Princess Anne over Woodgrove
Class 4:
Region D #2 E.C. Glass (22-4) at Region C #1 Millbrook (23-2)
Hat's Pick - Millbrook
Region C #2 Sherando (20-6) at Region D #1 Pulaski County (23-3)
Hat's Pick - Pulaski County
Region A #2 Manor (22-5; 19-5) at Region B #1 Eastern View (20-2)
Hat's Pick - Eastern View
Region B #2 Powhatan (17-8) at Region A #1 King's Fork (21-3)
Hat's Pick - King's Fork
State Final Pick - King's Fork over Pulaski County
Class 3:
Region D #2 Staunton River (25-1) at Region C #1 Spotswood (17-7)
Hat's Pick - Staunton River in OT
Region C #2 Fort Defiance (20-4) at Region D #1 Carroll County (22-1)
Hat's Pick - Carroll County
Region A #2 New Kent (15-8) at Region B #1 Meridian (22-1)
Hat's Pick - Meridian
Region B #2 Brentsville District (17-4) at Region A #1 Lakeland (14-6)
Hat's Pick - Lakeland
State Final Pick - Carroll County over Meridian
Class 2:
Region D #2 Gate City (17-12) vs. Region C #1 Radford (15-6) at Roanoke College
Hat's Pick - Gate City
Region C #2 Alleghany (17-7) at Region D #1 Central-Wise (23-5)
Hat's Pick - Central-Wise
Region A #2 Brunswick (17-7) at Region B #1 Luray (24-2)
Hat's Pick - Luray
Region B #2 Clarke County (17-9) vs. Region A #1 John Marshall (16-6) at Huguenot
Hat's Pick - John Marshall
State Final Pick - Central-Wise over Luray
Class 1:
Region D #2 Grundy (17-9) at Region C #1 Parry McCluer (25-1)
Hat's Pick - Parry McCluer
Region C #2 Auburn (20-6) at Region D #1 Honaker (24-3)
Hat's Pick - Honaker
Region A #2 Rappahannock (15-7) at Region B #1 Rappahannock County (15-11)
Hat's Pick - Rappahannock
Region B #2 Buffalo Gap (14-11) at Region A #1 West Point (19-2)
Hat's Pick - West Point
State Final Pick - Honaker over West Point
