History Says 2019 Class 2 Champion Is...

[CRF4Dan]

Every year I have looked at history to predict who the next champion will be. In years past I did this in Class 3-6 but with Thomas Jefferson and John Marshall now in Class 2 I bring this process to the Class 2 board... I like trends and stats... This year I did it again... I looked at previous champions, what they did the year before in order to give us an idea of who will win it all...

Keep in mind this all in good fun...

Trends-
4 of the last 6 champions did not make it past the third round of the playoffs the year before winning it all.
13 of the last 16 previous champions won 9+ games the year before winning it all.
3 of the last 7 champions were either a top seed or finished 13th or below in the ratings the year before winning it all.

Odds-
17 previous champions played in the state semifinals the year before winning it all.
26 previous champions won 8+ games the year before winning it all.
11 previous champions were in the top five ratings the year before winning it all.

Facts-
11 previous champions played in the state championship the year before winning it all.
12 previous champions won 9 ggames the year before winning it all.
5 previous champions were the top overall seed the year before winning it all.

So who fits the bill?

As far as trends go... there were several... Thomas Jefferson, Strasburg, Ridgeview, Richlands, Staunton, Nottoway, Luray, John Marshall, John Battle, Greensville, Glenvar, Giles, Fort Chiswell, East Rockingham, Clarke, Central Wise, Buffalo Gap, Buckingham, Brunswick, Arcadia and Amelia met 2 out of the 3 trends.

When it comes to odds/probabilities... there were two... East Rockingham and Radford.

Facts however say it will be Amelia, East Rockingham or Ridgeview.

East Rockingham however is the one that met all three... trends, odds and facts.

Graham was the 5th team to win their 4th state title as a member of Class 2... of those... 3 were followed by 1st time winners... just another nugget pointing to East Rockingham as your Class 2 2019 State Champion.

 

[kwhs95fan]

I might be mistaken, but I believe East Rockingham was senior dominated last year. Someone from that area could confirm for sure though.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

@kwhs95fan, they did have some significant playmakers graduate. My thoughts are that they will take a step back and Amelia and Stuarts Draft will fill the void on the A/B side of things since Goochland is moving to 3A. Hands down Graham and Radford have to be in the mix. And don’t forget Appo either as they had to adjust to some youth at key spots and played deep into the playoffs. That said I do like the analysis @CRF4Dan.

 

[longtimerhsfan]

Would have to agree........if East Rock couldn't win it with that team they had last year, they sure won't this year.

 

[swva_havok_fan]

I like the fact that Ridgeview is the only Region D team who made two out of the three. I would take winning Region D as a very successful season with what I am sure will be a stout Graham team and possibly Richlands as well still in the mix.

 

[gtownfencecrew]

I won't go so far as to say East Rock won't win it..........but if they didn't win last year, it's highly unlikely they win this year

 

[lovethisgame78]

Couple posters mentioned this but that's a huge factor that's not in your calculations and im sure it would've been hard to find all that info. But the key stat is how many starters graduated from these teams. Interesting though nonetheless.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Cool stuff CRF and definitely awesome data. I don't think we can accurately predict who will win it, but the data you gave can gow a long way in trying to tell. No question, the starters that return would go a long way, but two things really go a long way. Coaching and the Quality and Amount of starters returning. A team could be 3-7 and return 16 starters and if the quality returning is good or above average but not great, that team may be a 7-3 team the next year.

I like your pick with Amelia, but don't like East Rock. From everything I've read, they just lost to much and their 2019 team is going to be good, but not nearly as good as 2018. Could ER win state? Heck yes, but I would think their chances were much better last year.

Teams to watch out for that is not mentioned is Buckingham (probably my favorite to win the East and play for the state title. Another team is Staunton. They are always talented. In the West, it's likely that Graham, Radford, and Appo are favorites, but another team that is going to be very good and similar to Amelia and Buckingham in talent is Gretna. Gretna has the ability to beat both Radford and Appo in Region C.

I think the state title winner will again come from the West and I think the very first game of the season for Graham High school will be a huge factor. If Graham wins over powerhouse Bluefield High, they will likely run the table, and will have the home field advantage in the semi's against Radford or Appo or possibly Gretna and I don't think any of those three will go up to Graham and win. But if Graham loses to Bluefield, they will likely travel in the semi's to a Radford, Appo, or possibly Gretna or even Glenvar. I think the gap between Graham vs Appo or Radford will be closed from last year, and Appo or Radford will beat Graham in close game if hosting in Region C. I'm not sure, but it's my pick.

 

[Marshall-Dillon]

I strongly doubt that East Rock even wins their district this year. The new Bull Run will be good. East Rock takes a significant step back imho.

 

[19GHS87]

Cool stuff CRF and definitely awesome data. I don't think we can accurately predict who will win it, but the data you gave can gow a long way in trying to tell. No question, the starters that return would go a long way, but two things really go a long way. Coaching and the Quality and Amount of starters returning. A team could be 3-7 and return 16 starters and if the quality returning is good or above average but not great, that team may be a 7-3 team the next year.

I like your pick with Amelia, but don't like East Rock. From everything I've read, they just lost to much and their 2019 team is going to be good, but not nearly as good as 2018. Could ER win state? Heck yes, but I would think their chances were much better last year.

Teams to watch out for that is not mentioned is Buckingham (probably my favorite to win the East and play for the state title. Another team is Staunton. They are always talented. In the West, it's likely that Graham, Radford, and Appo are favorites, but another team that is going to be very good and similar to Amelia and Buckingham in talent is Gretna. Gretna has the ability to beat both Radford and Appo in Region C.

I think the state title winner will again come from the West and I think the very first game of the season for Graham High school will be a huge factor. If Graham wins over powerhouse Bluefield High, they will likely run the table, and will have the home field advantage in the semi's against Radford or Appo or possibly Gretna and I don't think any of those three will go up to Graham and win. But if Graham loses to Bluefield, they will likely travel in the semi's to a Radford, Appo, or possibly Gretna or even Glenvar. I think the gap between Graham vs Appo or Radford will be closed from last year, and Appo or Radford will beat Graham in close game if hosting in Region C. I'm not sure, but it's my pick.

Graham is a clear favorite in Region D. I think Radford and Appo are favorites in Region C. I believe C to be the strongest Region this year. Barring an upset (Ridgeview,Union,Richlands,Tazewell), the winner of Graham vs. Region C Champ would be my favorite to win it all. Graham has 9 games on the schedule they should win, but there are 2 or 3 trap games in their schedule. (A very athletic Tazewell team coming the week after their big rivalry game, Union and Richlands are always well-coached and disciplined). Bluefield is a toss up game, edge to Bluefield-both teams are very athletic (key will be lineplay for both teams). Graham won't face a team the caliber of Bluefield all season long. (Appo or Radford would be their biggest test and most comparable to Bluefield, in my opinion). However, playing in front of 10,000 to 12,000 against Bluefield in that first game in that environment will not be comparable to any game they play (possibly even up to the state title game). Bluefield has 5 D-1 athletes on what would be a 2A team on the VA side, loaded with athleticism, but questionable on the line. Graham should have an outstanding defense and a very capable offense (3 D-1 players themselves with 2 more getting looks). Bluefield in the end may just have too much athleticism, but I like what Dennis Palmer and Rex Bradshaw have done with that Defense at Graham, very solid and very stingy.

Here's a good story on Graham's strength coach: Good turnout so far in the offseason.
https://wvva.com/sport/top-sports-s...oach-lifts-g-men-football-program-to-success/

 

[Knish2019]

Graham is a clear favorite in Region D. I think Radford and Appo are favorites in Region C. I believe C to be the strongest Region this year. Barring an upset (Ridgeview,Union,Richlands,Tazewell), the winner of Graham vs. Region C Champ would be my favorite to win it all. Graham has 9 games on the schedule they should win, but there are 2 or 3 trap games in their schedule. (A very athletic Tazewell team coming the week after their big rivalry game, Union and Richlands are always well-coached and disciplined). Bluefield is a toss up game, edge to Bluefield-both teams are very athletic (key will be lineplay for both teams). Graham won't face a team the caliber of Bluefield all season long. (Appo or Radford would be their biggest test and most comparable to Bluefield, in my opinion). However, playing in front of 10,000 to 12,000 against Bluefield in that first game in that environment will not be comparable to any game they play (possibly even up to the state title game). Bluefield has 5 D-1 athletes on what would be a 2A team on the VA side, loaded with athleticism, but questionable on the line. Graham should have an outstanding defense and a very capable offense (3 D-1 Players themselves with 2 more getting serious looks). Bluefield in the end may just have too much athleticism, but I like what Dennis Palmer and Rex Bradshaw have done with that Defense at Graham, very solid and very stingy.

Here's a good story on Graham's strength coach: Good turnout so far in the offseason.
https://wvva.com/sport/top-sports-s...oach-lifts-g-men-football-program-to-success/

Who are the three D1 players for Graham? Lester, Meadows, and...

 

[19GHS87]

Their middle linebacker Kastner is being recruited by Marshall, Troy, Western Kentucky and a couple other D 1s and a bunch of FCS schools. Edwards and Ray are also being looked at. I do believe Marshall has expressed some interest in Edward and Ray. I thought Kastner had an offer from a D1 school (WKU), but I may be mistaken. Thought I saw that somewhere. They do have a total of 5 kids that D1 schools are looking at and showing interest. Just Checked Kastners recruiting profile and it didnt list any official offers, but he had several D1 suitors. Dont know when the last time it was updated, however. The lineplay will have to be much better against Bluefield than last season anyway. Bluefield has 5 commits for sure.

 

[Knish2019]

That’s great for Kastner. You could make a case for him being the defensive player of the year last year. Edwards definitely should be getting looks from
D1 programs. I know Ray is a big time player but I haven’t seen him play much.

 

[19GHS87]

That’s great for Kastner. You could make a case for him being the defensive player of the year last year. Edwards definitely should be getting looks from
D1 programs. I know Ray is a big time player but I haven’t seen him play much.

Ray is small to be considered for D 1. Maybe could be considered as a special teamer. He certainly has the speed and athleticism to match D1 prospects at the high achool level. Very elusive and great lateral movement. Very good hands and a very good pass defender.

 

[obguthr]

I strongly doubt that East Rock even wins their district this year. The new Bull Run will be good. East Rock takes a significant step back imho.

Mostly agree. They had a special team last year that doesn't come around very often, but the core of that team has all graduated. I think the Bull Run will be easier for them than the Shenandoah, but I doubt they win it in a rebuilding season.

 

[19GHS87]

Nice article on the G-Men.

https://gridironscouting.com/2019/0...aWf-1EmMa63moyfz-9HCSnTIf72fyy5S_yD1GnSoUhROE

 

[rocketman88]

Region D will be Graham. Teams that may sneak up on Graham are Union, Ridgeview, and Richlands. Those 3 have the best chance of beating Graham and that likely will not happen.

Appomattox and Radford run the show in the Region C.

 

[intrinsicreward]

I would add Glenvar with Appo and Radford to possible contenders in Region C. Games in 2018 were tight against Appo (24-21) and Radford (10-7 late) even without two of our best rbacks, out with season ending injuries. All 3 rbacks return this year. The question mark is the defensive line but offense should be better. Graham is probably the team to beat.

 

[NDRam]

I’m extremely interested in seeing how Tee Jay and John Marshall plays in 2A. Wouldn’t count either team out with the athletes they have. Tee Jay has a couple of studs and John Marshall returns some formidable guys too. Tee Jay was a few plays away from beating Goochland (2A runner up) last season. Radford, Glenvar, Appo, and Graham will be a juggernaut in the West. 2A is loaded.

 

[lpdpride]

Region D will be Graham. Teams that may sneak up on Graham are Union, Ridgeview, and Richlands. Those 3 have the best chance of beating Graham and that likely will not happen.

Appomattox and Radford run the show in the Region C.

Ridgeview I feel is the team to beat in region D, they are loaded with speed and tremendous size on the line.

 

[swva_havok_fan]

Ridgeview I feel is the team to beat in region D, they are loaded with speed and tremendous size on the line.

Man, I hope you are right. I am always humble about things like this though. Until someone in our region proves they can beat Graham, they're the top dog. The scrimmage with Tazewell next Friday should be interesting as the dish is the Dawgs are much improved this year.

 

[CRF4Dan]

I’m extremely interested in seeing how Tee Jay and John Marshall plays in 2A. Wouldn’t count either team out with the athletes they have. Tee Jay has a couple of studs and John Marshall returns some formidable guys too. Tee Jay was a few plays away from beating Goochland (2A runner up) last season. Radford, Glenvar, Appo, and Graham will be a juggernaut in the West. 2A is loaded.

Thomas Jefferson could make some noise... Well coached team with some stud athletes. In the past players have left city schools to join up with schools outside of the city to be on a winning team but the tide has turned at TJ and kids are sticking around and building something there. Defense should be very good and once they hit the playoffs, they could go deeper than ever before.

 

[NDRam]

Thomas Jefferson could make some noise... Well coached team with some stud athletes. In the past players have left city schools to join up with schools outside of the city to be on a winning team but the tide has turned at TJ and kids are sticking around and building something there. Defense should be very good and once they hit the playoffs, they could go deeper than ever before.

Tee Jay is where a lot of the city kids want to play football. Will be interesting to see how many kids they get since Huguenot’s coach left.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Ridgeview I feel is the team to beat in region D, they are loaded with speed and tremendous size on the line.

No offense to Ridgeview as I'm sure they will be tough and I wish them the best, but with the defending.state champions returning 15 of 22 starters and Ridgeview having never reached the third round of the playoffs with upset losses to Grayson County two years ago and then Richlands last year in round two, I just don't think it's easy to say they are the favorite over Graham in that region.

 

[CRF4Dan]

Tee Jay is where a lot of the city kids want to play football. Will be interesting to see how many kids they get since Huguenot’s coach left.

Huguenot's quarterback from last season is now the QB at TJ

 

[NDRam]

Huguenot's quarterback from last season is now the QB at TJ

Not sure it’s reliable but I’m hearing some Wythe guys may be over there too.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

I predict it will be a "G" team , or Appomattox.

 

[Marshall-Dillon]

I know who it will not be...

Just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse for the once mighty Madison County Mountaineers, it did. Two starters quit this week. Reportedly in opposition to the controversial assistant coach.

And they only had 11 JV players come out but heard that may be 15 now.

Football is barely treading water in MC.

Maybe it is like Patrick Swayze said in Roadhouse, “it’s gonna’ get worse before it gets better”.

 

[ClarkeFan83]

I know who it will not be...

Just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse for the once mighty Madison County Mountaineers, it did. Two starters quit this week. Reportedly in opposition to the controversial assistant coach.

And they only had 11 JV players come out but heard that may be 15 now.

Football is barely treading water in MC.

Maybe it is like Patrick Swayze said in Roadhouse, “it’s gonna’ get worse before it gets better”.

I'm sorry to hear that.

 

[Miss Bonnie]

I know who it will not be...

Just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse for the once mighty Madison County Mountaineers, it did. Two starters quit this week. Reportedly in opposition to the controversial assistant coach.

And they only had 11 JV players come out but heard that may be 15 now.

Football is barely treading water in MC.

Maybe it is like Patrick Swayze said in Roadhouse, “it’s gonna’ get worse before it gets better”.

I know who it will not be...

Just when I thought it couldn’t get any worse for the once mighty Madison County Mountaineers, it did. Two starters quit this week. Reportedly in opposition to the controversial assistant coach.

And they only had 11 JV players come out but heard that may be 15 now.

Football is barely treading water in MC.

Maybe it is like Patrick Swayze said in Roadhouse, “it’s gonna’ get worse before it gets better”.

It's been a long long time since Madison has been considered mighty. I hear some grumbling about the hiring of the new coach and how he isn't a Madison person but I think people should wake up and give this guy a chance. Let's face it, Madison is on their 3rd coach in 4 years and every previous coach has been hired from within. With only 1 playoff win in the last 18 years, it seems like perhaps it was time to try something different and hire someone from outside the Madison Football family. Even the great Eddie Dean only won a handful of games (I believe it was 8 wins) his last 3 years at the helm of the mighty Mountaineers.

 

[Marshall-Dillon]

Miss Bonnie...Rhoades was from Clarke County. He was most definitely not one of the Dean disciples. I wish he would have stayed but the new position he has was too sweet to refuse.

The problem is not with the new head coach... even though he teaches in Orange and isn’t in the Madison school system. The issue is with one of the assistants he brought along. I can’t believe the school board is that idiotic.

 

[obguthr]

Miss Bonnie...Rhoades was from Clarke County. He was most definitely not one of the Dean disciples. I wish he would have stayed but the new position he has was too sweet to refuse.

The problem is not with the new head coach... even though he teaches in Orange and isn’t in the Madison school system. The issue is with one of the assistants he brought along. There is a HUGE reason he isn’t a coach in OC anymore. I can’t believe the school board is that idiotic.

If true, I hope they send him back to Orange. It may be too late to salvage this season but the sooner he's gone, the sooner they can build for the future.

 

[Hampton Roads 6]

What's the scope on this assistant ?