I have often heard the argument by some on here that if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015 or so, Essex would have been the dominant team and would have many more state titles. Well, here is what Calpreps Predicts on Hypothetical and this can go back many years. You might be surprised by this. The argument can be made strongly for Galax and even Chilhowie as well as Essex. See below.
2022- Essex Lost to Riverheads 21-8 George Wythe lost 49-27. Calpreps predicts Essex 34-28 over G. Wythe in a close game (game within 6 pts, I call that close)
2021-22 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-12 and Galax lost to Riverheads 45-14. Calpreps predicts Galax 35-24 over Essex (game not within 10 points)
2020 Essex did not have a season and Galax lost to Riverheads 65-29
2019 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-19 and Galax lost to Riverheads 31-24 Calpreps picks Galax 38-21 over Essex (game not within 10 points)
2018 Essex Lost to Riverheads 28-6 and Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 35-7 (Calpreps picks Chilhowie 35-10 over Essex (game not close, a huge win for Chilhowie)
2017 Essex Lost to Riverheads 17-14 Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 42-0. Calpreps picks Essex 28-21 over Chilhowie (game within 7 points, I call that close)
2016 Essex Lost to Riverheads 38-0. Galax lost 63-21 to Riverheads. Calpreps pick 35-10 Galax over Essex (game not close, another 25 point win prediction for the west)
2015 Galax State Title
Conclusions. There are 2 times above since 2015 that Essex has been favored to win a state title by Calpreps and both are close, very close to being within margin of error-only 6 and 7 point wins. There are 5 times since 2015 where Essex was predicted to lose, or where it was obvious (Galax in 2015 won state title) and in the 4 times where Essex was predicted to lose, none of the 4 games were predicted for Essex to be within 10 points and 2 of those 4 games were predicted Essex losses by 25 points. Could Essex have won these games where they were predicted to lose by 11,17,25, and 25 points? Sure, but brothers, it ain't a strong argument. No offense to Essex which is an outstanding team and there's no question that Essex has been solid and we don't know for sure who would have won any of these games, but for some who have the idea that Essex was a "slam dunk" if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015, well.....that argument is anything from a slam dunk. We don't know who would have won, but the argument for the team in the West is fairly strong.
2022- Essex Lost to Riverheads 21-8 George Wythe lost 49-27. Calpreps predicts Essex 34-28 over G. Wythe in a close game (game within 6 pts, I call that close)
2021-22 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-12 and Galax lost to Riverheads 45-14. Calpreps predicts Galax 35-24 over Essex (game not within 10 points)
2020 Essex did not have a season and Galax lost to Riverheads 65-29
2019 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-19 and Galax lost to Riverheads 31-24 Calpreps picks Galax 38-21 over Essex (game not within 10 points)
2018 Essex Lost to Riverheads 28-6 and Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 35-7 (Calpreps picks Chilhowie 35-10 over Essex (game not close, a huge win for Chilhowie)
2017 Essex Lost to Riverheads 17-14 Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 42-0. Calpreps picks Essex 28-21 over Chilhowie (game within 7 points, I call that close)
2016 Essex Lost to Riverheads 38-0. Galax lost 63-21 to Riverheads. Calpreps pick 35-10 Galax over Essex (game not close, another 25 point win prediction for the west)
2015 Galax State Title
Conclusions. There are 2 times above since 2015 that Essex has been favored to win a state title by Calpreps and both are close, very close to being within margin of error-only 6 and 7 point wins. There are 5 times since 2015 where Essex was predicted to lose, or where it was obvious (Galax in 2015 won state title) and in the 4 times where Essex was predicted to lose, none of the 4 games were predicted for Essex to be within 10 points and 2 of those 4 games were predicted Essex losses by 25 points. Could Essex have won these games where they were predicted to lose by 11,17,25, and 25 points? Sure, but brothers, it ain't a strong argument. No offense to Essex which is an outstanding team and there's no question that Essex has been solid and we don't know for sure who would have won any of these games, but for some who have the idea that Essex was a "slam dunk" if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015, well.....that argument is anything from a slam dunk. We don't know who would have won, but the argument for the team in the West is fairly strong.
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