Is the model right?

[GilliamRatings]

Every year I feel like the model everyone uses for football power in the state looks like this

#1 757 Powerhouse
#2 757 Powerhouse
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#3 somebody else (probably throw a bone to whichever Concorde District team looks good)
#4 somebody else
#5 somebody else
etc.

a correct model?

 

[VaPrepsRod]

Not the model that I use as the Concorde's best almost always starts in one of the top two spots.

As a general rule, you're not going to go wrong picking the top two in the North and the top two in the South and splitting them in the top four spots.

For the last couple of seasons, 6A has been very predictable.

 

[GilliamRatings]

I feel like there is a wide gap in the South

It does feel like in the South the top two or so 757 teams are always way better than everyone else and I think that deceives us into overlooking the powerhouses in the Northern Region. It's hard to get excited about Centreville when they're winning 28-21 and Ocean Lakes or Oscar Smith is winning 59-3. I think that the top in the Northern region is probably right there, but it's disguised because there seem to be a lot of teams (particularly in the Concorde) that push the top teams. In the East, the old districts mean that Ocean Lakes and Oscar Smith (or whoever the two teams happen to be) end up playing a lot of 5A squads and even some 4A squads because the old districts were mixed. Centreville played nothing but 6A teams because of the way the districts were there when it all ended.

Here's my model for what I expect (and obviously, it's a little different)

1-5 Two old eastern region teams, two Concorde district teams, 1 more team from somewhere in the state. No particular order.
6-10 Probably mostly NOVA teams when a team or two popping in from elsewhere.

Richmond just doesn't have most of it's smoke in 6A and the old Commonwealth District teams always seem to be real good, but not at that state champion level. It also feels like there is no one in the Eastern Region who is usually going to give a game to the best team in the Beach District and the best team from the Southeastern (I remember when it wasn't Ocean Lakes and Oscar Smith, so I won't use their names). So maybe one team from Prince William County is usually good enough to make some noise, but beating both of the 757 juggernauts seems daunting to me.

The Concorde just always has seemed to have four or five real good teams every year, so I look for favorites out of there, but there are other good teams up there (see Lake Braddock), but again, running a playoff gauntlet filled with Concorde teams seems really tough. It really is hard for me to envision a final that doesn't feature a Concorde District team right now.

I've got nothing against any of those teams, but I would like to see the Richmond schools and Fredericksburg schools in a spot where we didn't feel it was an upset if they won a 6A playoff game. It just doesn't feel like a classification where a lot of teams start having a legitimate chance to win the thing right now.

 

[VaPrepsRod]

Originally posted by GilliamRatings:

Here's my model for what I expect (and obviously, it's a little different)

1-5 Two old eastern region teams, two Concorde district teams, 1 more team from somewhere in the state. No particular order.
6-10 Probably mostly NOVA teams when a team or two popping in from elsewhere.

That is much closer with the model that I use for preseason rankings.

Originally posted by GilliamRatings:

The Concorde just always has seemed to have four or five real good teams every year, so I look for favorites out of there, but there are other good teams up there (see Lake Braddock), but again, running a playoff gauntlet filled with Concorde teams seems really tough. It really is hard for me to envision a final that doesn't feature a Concorde District team right now.

In recent years, the Concorde has essentially been a two-team league rather than the four or five of the past.

Also, it was not so long ago (2009 and 2010) when Lake Braddock won back-to-back titles. I'd still start with the top 1-2 teams from the Concorde but Lake Braddock and South County can challenge. In fact, Lake Braddock might enter the season as the top team in the North next season (haven't look at things close enough yet).

 

[m.ur]

You guys are both pretty accurate, always are.

Take the two power beach programs and put them at the top, for no other reason that no one else down there will beat either Smith or Lakes so you can pencil them into the South final four. The only way either loses a reg season game is if they play a national game.

North is more difficult to predict although Cville and Westfield has dominated recently. Cville will come back to the pack.

Lake braddock/westfield will again be at the top, and west springfield could be the surprise and take over for south county as the next program up

Throw in a Hylton with those 6, and you have your top 7.