We've got two threads going, so I'm just posting my thoughts here.
There is a lot of parity. I'm not sure we found out much from this week's games beyond that. We knew anybody would whip Fluvanna, C'ville did. Powhatan was banged up, we knew Orange had improved enough to spring an upset, Orange did. We figured Albemarle and Louisa were close, they played a close game. The only score that surprised me a bit was Western by 3 TD over the Mustangs. Western's stock goes up with me, Monticello's down, and I am now willing to say Orange springs at least one more upset and maybe two.
So this is not scientific (not using my ratings, really), but here's how I see it.
Western finishes something like (6-1, 8-2) gets a decent seed in playoffs and advances a couple of rounds.
Albemarle finishes (5-2, 7-3) but runs into a monster in the playoffs simply because 5A is so loaded and gets beat.
Everyone else ends up 3-4 or 4-3 in district (except hapless Fluvanna) and 4-6, 5-5 or 6-4 and probably sneaks into playoffs but with a road trip to a real good team and fails.
I feel like if a 3A or 4A team goes 7-3 they can probably get a good enough draw to win a playoff game.
I've got to see more scores before I can give a clear pecking order, but right now my computer says:
1. Western
2. Albemarle
3. Louisa
4. Powhatan
5. Charlottesville
6. Monticello
7. Orange
8. Fluvanna
However, positions 3-6 are a statistical tie and Albemarle is only rated a fg in front of Louisa and Orange is only a fg behind Monticello. Western's not far enough above even Orange where they can be confident of not being upset.
There is a lot of parity. I'm not sure we found out much from this week's games beyond that. We knew anybody would whip Fluvanna, C'ville did. Powhatan was banged up, we knew Orange had improved enough to spring an upset, Orange did. We figured Albemarle and Louisa were close, they played a close game. The only score that surprised me a bit was Western by 3 TD over the Mustangs. Western's stock goes up with me, Monticello's down, and I am now willing to say Orange springs at least one more upset and maybe two.
So this is not scientific (not using my ratings, really), but here's how I see it.
Western finishes something like (6-1, 8-2) gets a decent seed in playoffs and advances a couple of rounds.
Albemarle finishes (5-2, 7-3) but runs into a monster in the playoffs simply because 5A is so loaded and gets beat.
Everyone else ends up 3-4 or 4-3 in district (except hapless Fluvanna) and 4-6, 5-5 or 6-4 and probably sneaks into playoffs but with a road trip to a real good team and fails.
I feel like if a 3A or 4A team goes 7-3 they can probably get a good enough draw to win a playoff game.
I've got to see more scores before I can give a clear pecking order, but right now my computer says:
1. Western
2. Albemarle
3. Louisa
4. Powhatan
5. Charlottesville
6. Monticello
7. Orange
8. Fluvanna
However, positions 3-6 are a statistical tie and Albemarle is only rated a fg in front of Louisa and Orange is only a fg behind Monticello. Western's not far enough above even Orange where they can be confident of not being upset.
