Jefferson District: What we learned:

[GilliamRatings]

1) Louisa 28, Powhatan 20

Powhatan better than advertised as most people were predicting a much bigger win for the Lions. I would have told you before the game that this was the district championship game, but Louisa still has a test with Charlottesville and with Orange, so I won't call it just yet, but it's looking good for the Lions.

2) Orange 63, Western 22

The most impressive win of the year for Orange. We already knew Western wasn't what they were last year, and that Orange had a lot of potential, but I don't think anyone was expecting a blowout of this magnitude. Orange dominated the game. Makes the 2 point loss to Powhatan not look so much like an aberration. Orange still hasn't beaten a good team yet, but they have demolished the three teams they beat with 40+ point wins in each. I think I would have rather got Orange in the first half of the season. They'll be tough down the line. Western seems shockingly bad this year. Orange is probably a much better team than last year, but their record will not show it.

3) Albemarle 26, Charlottesville 18

The anecdotal evidence on C'ville was that they were really good (at least on these message boards), but I didn't think that was backed up by number crunching, but some chinks in the armor were exposed last night. This is a gigantic win for Albemarle and should really help their seed when the post season comes. The game with Powhatan should be a really interesting one for the Patriots and will probably give us an idea of just how good they are, but I still say the playoffs are rough road for the Jefferson District 5A squads. It's just a loaded up class again this year.

4) Monticello 35, Fluvanna 14

Nothing much to see here. This is about as close as Fluvanna will play anyone in the district. The Mustangs are not good and Fluvanna is two levels below them.

The teams as ranked by CalPreps:

1) Louisa (probably a final four playoff team) 42.9
2) Powhatan (I see them winning a playoff game, but not a deep advance) 29.2
3) Albemarle (Big win last night has probably earned them at least a moderate draw in the playoffs, could get lucky and draw someone beatable in the first round) 26.4
4) Charlottesville (First round loss in playoffs, unless they get a lucky draw) 17.5
5) Orange (Unfortunately, they will draw a stud team in the first round again) 14.9
6) Western Albemarle (Where is the defense?) 1.6
7) Monticello (such a disappointing season, let's hope they don't make the playoffs because, man) =0.7
8) Fluvanna -20.9

 

[Snookasuperstar]

It will be interesting to see if lions can end the jd playoff curse.

 

[appydawg85]

Louisa will be hard to stop with the power running game, however in order to go very deep in the playoffs they will have to do a better job vs the pass on defense. Powhatan had two maybe three long plays that they did not capitalize on that were wide open one of which was an interception because the ball was under thrown by five or six yards. They will also be suspect when every series for the opposing team starts at around the 50. With that group of athletes I find it hard to believe they do not have a kicker that can drive the ball deep.

The Indians will get their starting QB back by the playoffs who also is a major contributor on defense. I enjoyed watching the game last night and am proud of how this team competes. They have a good running game and honestly play as a team for each other. Look forward to the reaminder of the season.

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Same observation I have. I mean they are good and could have a run this year but they have to be able to throw and play solid pass defense or they could have a tough second round draw.

 

[one man]

3) Albemarle 26, Charlottesville 18

The anecdotal evidence on C'ville was that they were really good (at least on these message boards), but I didn't think that was backed up by number crunching, but some chinks in the armor were exposed last night. This is a gigantic win for Albemarle and should really help their seed when the post season comes. The game with Powhatan should be a really interesting one for the Patriots and will probably give us an idea of just how good they are, but I still say the playoffs are rough road for the Jefferson District 5A squads. It's just a loaded up class again this year.

Explain what you mean by number crunching? Are you looking at box scores, final scores? I'm not throwing shade or anything, just curious.

IMO we ran out of steam last night. First off, congrats to Albemarle staff and players. Both teams faced adversity and they handled it a little bit better than we did, they earned it.

Not making excuses but lets be honest, we played 8 quarters in 5 days against our two biggest rivals, both emotionally and last night very much physically exhausting game. By the 4th quarter our lack of depth showed. AHS has 60-70 kids, nobody going both ways, we've got 32 with 4 going both ways. We lose two of those guys and not only do we lose starting talent but their backups then become two way players. Again I'm not trying to make an excuse, this is simply reality and we know who we are. At the end of the day we still had a great chance to win the game, we led for 40+ minutes. Had a TD called back in the 3rd that would have put us up 24-13 but you know those are the breaks. Credit to AHS, they wanted it a little more than we did.

AHS is the first team to put up 300 yards on us, the previous high was 258 by Dominion. We outgained them 348-301. Won turnover battle 3-2. Key stat IMO was 3rd down conversions, we were 3-11 and they were 8-12 including 4 on the final drive. They were first team all year to be over 40% on 3rd down. Opponents were 9-49 on 3rd down in our first 5 games.

I could sit up here and go on and on but at the end of the day we're 4-2 right now with 5-1 Powhatan coming to town in 6 days. They are fundamentally sound and great at what they do, physical football at its finest. It's make or break this week and we know it.

 

[blackknight_pride]

It also started raining at half and that definitely affected some things. If we can beat Powhatan and Orange (which i think is very possible) we'll redeem ourselves. It is still very possible to go 7-3. Our run defense looked really good until the end of the first half, and hmmm that's when it started raining...

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Explain what you mean by number crunching? Are you looking at box scores, final scores? I'm not throwing shade or anything, just curious.

IMO we ran out of steam last night. First off, congrats to Albemarle staff and players. Both teams faced adversity and they handled it a little bit better than we did, they earned it.

Not making excuses but lets be honest, we played 8 quarters in 5 days against our two biggest rivals, both emotionally and last night very much physically exhausting game. By the 4th quarter our lack of depth showed. AHS has 60-70 kids, nobody going both ways, we've got 32 with 4 going both ways. We lose two of those guys and not only do we lose starting talent but their backups then become two way players. Again I'm not trying to make an excuse, this is simply reality and we know who we are. At the end of the day we still had a great chance to win the game, we led for 40+ minutes. Had a TD called back in the 3rd that would have put us up 24-13 but you know those are the breaks. Credit to AHS, they wanted it a little more than we did.

AHS is the first team to put up 300 yards on us, the previous high was 258 by Dominion. We outgained them 348-301. Won turnover battle 3-2. Key stat IMO was 3rd down conversions, we were 3-11 and they were 8-12 including 4 on the final drive. They were first team all year to be over 40% on 3rd down. Opponents were 9-49 on 3rd down in our first 5 games.

I could sit up here and go on and on but at the end of the day we're 4-2 right now with 5-1 Powhatan coming to town in 6 days. They are fundamentally sound and great at what they do, physical football at its finest. It's make or break this week and we know it.

The two guys you lost, will you have them back this week?

 

[one man]

It also started raining at half and that definitely affected some things. If we can beat Powhatan and Orange (which i think is very possible) we'll redeem ourselves. It is still very possible to go 7-3. Our run defense looked really good until the end of the first half, and hmmm that's when it started raining...

Rain wasn't a factor IMO. Our run defense was solid all night until the final drive. It was conditioning and mental mistakes on both sides of the ball, which falls on us as coaches. We'll work hard this week to prepare them better. Just have to play 4 focused quarters.

The two guys you lost, will you have them back this week?

Not sure, we'll find out this week.

 

[shauntclair]

Very best to the two injured players.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

Thanks, good luck. I hope the two kids are ok for the real reasons, but I hope for the team's sake as well that they are healthy. Good of you and the coaches to shoulder the shortcomings. Classy.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Explain what you mean by number crunching? Are you looking at box scores, final scores? I'm not throwing shade or anything, just curious.

IMO we ran out of steam last night. First off, congrats to Albemarle staff and players. Both teams faced adversity and they handled it a little bit better than we did, they earned it.

Not making excuses but lets be honest, we played 8 quarters in 5 days against our two biggest rivals, both emotionally and last night very much physically exhausting game. By the 4th quarter our lack of depth showed. AHS has 60-70 kids, nobody going both ways, we've got 32 with 4 going both ways. We lose two of those guys and not only do we lose starting talent but their backups then become two way players. Again I'm not trying to make an excuse, this is simply reality and we know who we are. At the end of the day we still had a great chance to win the game, we led for 40+ minutes. Had a TD called back in the 3rd that would have put us up 24-13 but you know those are the breaks. Credit to AHS, they wanted it a little more than we did.

AHS is the first team to put up 300 yards on us, the previous high was 258 by Dominion. We outgained them 348-301. Won turnover battle 3-2. Key stat IMO was 3rd down conversions, we were 3-11 and they were 8-12 including 4 on the final drive. They were first team all year to be over 40% on 3rd down. Opponents were 9-49 on 3rd down in our first 5 games.

I could sit up here and go on and on but at the end of the day we're 4-2 right now with 5-1 Powhatan coming to town in 6 days. They are fundamentally sound and great at what they do, physical football at its finest. It's make or break this week and we know it.

Yep, comparing scores with sites like CalPreps and my old ratings. I know Calpreps was not sold on C'ville and I doubt my ratings system would have been. By that, I don't mean that the programs thought the Black Knights were bad, just kind of equal to the whole pack of teams after Louisa and Powhatan. It just didn't see a dimes worth of difference between Orange, Albemarle and Charlottesville, put the posts here made me think nobody was going to stay on the field with Charlottesville.

I would say now it's definitely a pecking order of

1) Louisa
2) Powhatan

3) Albemarle (wins over Orange and Charlottesville)
4 & 5) Orange and Charlottesville
6 & 7) Western and Monticello
8) Fluvanna

 

[one man]

Yep, comparing scores with sites like CalPreps and my old ratings. I know Calpreps was not sold on C'ville and I doubt my ratings system would have been. By that, I don't mean that the programs thought the Black Knights were bad, just kind of equal to the whole pack of teams after Louisa and Powhatan. It just didn't see a dimes worth of difference between Orange, Albemarle and Charlottesville, put the posts here made me think nobody was going to stay on the field with Charlottesville.

I would say now it's definitely a pecking order of

1) Louisa
2) Powhatan

3) Albemarle (wins over Orange and Charlottesville)
4 & 5) Orange and Charlottesville
6 & 7) Western and Monticello
8) Fluvanna

Not sure where we've been hyped up this much. A number of people think we'll break through this year but I can't recall anyone saying nobody could stay on the field with us. We haven't had a winning record since 2002. Like Shaunt, snooka and a few others have mentioned, that is who we are until we prove otherwise. Friday night we'll have another chance to work on our perception.

How do you judge Albemarle vs Powhatan? They have two common opponents. Both lost to Louisa 41-13 and 28-20 respectively and both beat Orange 35-13 and 15-13 resepctively. Does Powhatan get more respect for staying closer to Louisa?

 

[GilliamRatings]

This will be a good game and I would think the breaks of the game will determine it more so than one team being clearly better than the other. If you're going to make me pick I'll go with Powhatan by 28-26, but the only thing that would surprise me is a blowout by either side.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Not sure where we've been hyped up this much. A number of people think we'll break through this year but I can't recall anyone saying nobody could stay on the field with us. We haven't had a winning record since 2002. Like Shaunt, snooka and a few others have mentioned, that is who we are until we prove otherwise. Friday night we'll have another chance to work on our perception.

How do you judge Albemarle vs Powhatan? They have two common opponents. Both lost to Louisa 41-13 and 28-20 respectively and both beat Orange 35-13 and 15-13 resepctively. Does Powhatan get more respect for staying closer to Louisa?

Oh, I don't think anyone implicitly said it, but after I was done reading the message boards, I was really feeling like they were going to romp and that I was probably ranking them too lowly.

 

[blackknight_pride]

No matter what these sites think, we'll see if Cville can prove itself this week. If they beat Powhatan then Orange I think they're top 15 in 4A.

 

[GilliamRatings]

No matter what these sites think, we'll see if Cville can prove itself this week. If they beat Powhatan then Orange I think they're top 15 in 4A.

Definitely.

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

Also, Albemarle returned an interception near the end of the game, and the Albemarle player dropped the ball, which hit the ground a good 3-4 yards before the endzone. The ball rolled into the endzone, then a Charlottesville player touched it. The officials gave Albemarle the touchdown anyway. Coach Sherry sent the clip to the officials association, no response....

 

[blackknight_pride]

Yeah I saw that after the game. It's frustrating, but sometimes officials mess up. That's part of the game. We just have to focus on the rest of the schedule now. I feel like we know we're gonna beat Western and lose to Louisa, so we're going to try and make it 4-1 these last 5 weeks.

 

[one man]

Yeah I saw that after the game. It's frustrating, but sometimes officials mess up. That's part of the game. We just have to focus on the rest of the schedule now. I feel like we know we're gonna beat Western and lose to Louisa, so we're going to try and make it 4-1 these last 5 weeks.

The only thing WE know is Powhatan comes to Deberry Field for our homecoming Friday. WE don't know anything else after that. WE are trying to go 1-0 this friday. We'll worry about Western and Louisa in a few more weeks.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Also, Albemarle returned an interception near the end of the game, and the Albemarle player dropped the ball, which hit the ground a good 3-4 yards before the endzone. The ball rolled into the endzone, then a Charlottesville player touched it. The officials gave Albemarle the touchdown anyway. Coach Sherry sent the clip to the officials association, no response....

I know officials mess up, but if this play unfolded like this post says, this was ridiculously bad.