I agree DP. The private schools in NY/NJ and CA have been the go to schools for decades now. For them to become de facto sports academies wasn't a stretch because as educational institutions they were already getting talented students and athletes. We have seen a number of sports academies crash and burn in multiple states either due to logistical problems or trouble with educational certification. Localities with strong public school systems, great local rivalries, and Friday night traditions can withstand or be mostly immune to the private school/sports academy effect. Benedictine, Collegiate, and Trinity have recruited central VA for years and have gotten some elite players over that time, but I wouldn't say it has hurt public high school football. If those schools' coaches didn't assist with Super Seniors in CQL and recruit players, private school football might not be much to talk about. Bishop Sullivan has made that attempt in VA Beach by hiring Chris Scott and recruiting hard, but it hasn't paid big dividends so we will see how long it continues.
I think the participation numbers we are seeing at the high school level reflects the immediate drop off from the concern that grew out the NFL concussion issue. While participation numbers may not completely rebound to what they were prior to public awareness of CTE and other concussion issues, I feel like we are seeing some rebound. I found statistics not reported by a group with an agenda that show participation altogether and in most sports specifically has declined.
And now that colleges are offering Esports scholarships, parents and kids have more reasons to stay inside and play video games.
Football gets a bad rap, but as we know there are few things that bind people together over shared experiences as much the blood, sweat, and tears of youth/prep football. And I tell people that if you are truly worried about your kids getting hurt and keeping them safe, then do not ever let them get in an automobile as it is the most dangerous place they can be.