All we know for sure is that Salem killed Blacksburg and Byrd killed Stanton River. Anything else said about the subject is just guessing.
My Region D Playoff Preview
- Thread starter blackknight_pride
- Start date
You're right about guessing and that was kind of my point. Trying to figure results of matchups that didn't happen or even rematches that didn't happen is guess work, and whether 6A or 1A outcomes aren't guaranteed. But it seems like some educated guesses don't count if the conventional thinking isn't used.
Having seen a handful of their games in person the last 2 years and believing in their ability level and system, I would guess that Salem would have 30 to 40% chance of beating Highland Springs. But even a Salem fan said no way. I admit I haven't seen a real Springers football game live, seen them on internet and at 7v7, they were extremely good, but not so far out there Salem wouldn't have more than a small chance.
Likewise, having seen Appomattox about 10 times the the last 2 years, they would have had a slight edge versus Salem the last two years. Despite only being a 2A school, they have had more talent, speed, and depth than anyone Salem has seen since 2014 Lake Taylor. That's the eye test for you Spartan and Danville from someone who has seen both teams several times.
And Staunton River would be 50/50 versus both Salem and Appomattox, because coming up with a Defense to stop that offense is a coin flip, even though both have more talent than Staunton River.
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I have been told that I should respect other people's opinions so respectfully I think your opinion concerning imaginary matchups like Salem and Appomattox, Appomattox v Lake Taylor, Appomattox v Dinwiddie are downright ridiculous.
I saw Appomattox play Dan River this past year and I will say that Salem would've beaten Appo by at least 3 TDs, maybe more. I personally thought that Dan River had a better overall team than Appo but hey that's besides the point.. I know this is all hypothetical talk and fun and all but there was no team in 1a, 2a or 3a that could've beaten the top 5 teams in 4a being Salem, Dinwiddie, LT, Woodgrove, and Monacan... Won't happening.
EDIT: Throw Lafayette in there too.. So top 6.
EDIT: Throw Lafayette in there too.. So top 6.
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I think until you see both teams on the same field, on the same day, playing each other, eye tests aren't worth much. It would kind of be like going to the proctologist to get your vision tested.
If you make a suggestion like Staunton River would have had a 50/50 shot at beating Salem last year, then your guesses don't appear to be very educated. I could throw out another well-reasoned argument supported by more facts and figures to show why, but I suspect all that would go ignored, as did my previous post. So, no need to bother with another long post that will go unread, or misunderstood.
Also, if you honestly think Appomattox has more talent, speed and depth than anyone Salem has played in the past two seasons, I'd say that's because a) Appo looks like that because they're playing against mostly 2A competition, and b) your eyes are only showing you what you want to see. I'm sure supporters of Lake Taylor, Dinwiddie, and a few other excellent 4A teams will be thrilled to hear how their teams were inferior to the 2A champs.
I still respect your right to voice your opinion. I don't respect your right to troll a fan base, which is starting to seem like what this might really be all about. Because parts of what you've put forth, like the Staunton River stuff, aren't unconventional, they're just outlandish and have no basis in anything. But, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, to keep the discourse open. We'll assume you're not another troll. So while I acknowledge your opinions, all I need to say back is, Salem, LT, and Dinwiddie of the past three years have been better than all other teams in every lower division. And based on what you've offered, "Because that's my opinion" is all the proof this thread requires.
One last correction: no Salem fan has stated anywhere in this thread that there's "no way" Salem could have beaten Highland Springs. Certainly not me. I said an upset was possible, as was an upset of Appo over Salem.
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Blacksburg has two skill players with D1 offers, I know that Terry has an ACC offer to UVA. If the QB is only a sophomore he might garner some attention in the upcoming year but they will compete next year as in 4A one or two elite skill players can win you a couple games. If they can block and tackle well, and the defense keeps them out of the end zone less their O I don't see why they can't win some games and be a contender in the post-season.
There are a few teams that come by that could win no matter which classification, as I've seen, a winning culture establishes an attitude of and generally an application of not losing. It doesn't mean every team that wins could but I believe some special teams that won states with some special players can grind out a victory among other elite teams.
Appomattox was a very good team the past few years but would they had run the table in the seminole and made it deeper than JF did from a few years ago is to be tabled for another discussion of what ifs. Salem is the cream of the crop and the pick of the liter to perennially get the job done, they are similar to an Alabama in terms of tradition and getting it done year in and year out. They might not always win it but they'll have say so and if they get close enough they might F around and win it as they proved the last two seasons as underdogs in many people's minds.
There are a few teams that come by that could win no matter which classification, as I've seen, a winning culture establishes an attitude of and generally an application of not losing. It doesn't mean every team that wins could but I believe some special teams that won states with some special players can grind out a victory among other elite teams.
Appomattox was a very good team the past few years but would they had run the table in the seminole and made it deeper than JF did from a few years ago is to be tabled for another discussion of what ifs. Salem is the cream of the crop and the pick of the liter to perennially get the job done, they are similar to an Alabama in terms of tradition and getting it done year in and year out. They might not always win it but they'll have say so and if they get close enough they might F around and win it as they proved the last two seasons as underdogs in many people's minds.
Well, according to things posted earlier, I have learned things don't change much throughout the season. Blacksburg's significant improvement from middle of season on never happened. And familiarity, or lack there of, with an opponents scheme has no effect.
Byrd killed Staunton river, Salem beat Byrd, so Salem would beat Staunton River handily, because smaller school and common opponents. This opinion is ok and accepted, educated. I would like to know if any of you had seen Staunton River up close and in person. Their defense was not good, but their offense was extremely hard to get a handle on, not impossible though.
However, Appomattox would have little chance against Salem. But Appomattox demolished Amherst, who was the only loss for Salem this year. And two years ago, Salem and Appomattox put up almost identical wins against Amherst 2 weeks apart. I was at both and the feeling among many I talked with, was that Appomattox was a more explosive and overwhelming team. Seems like they would also have a good shot by Salem fan comparison logic.
Of course this educated opinion is unpopular on the Virginiapreps 4A board presented by the Salem Spartan fan club.
Danville, I didn't see the game against Dan River, so I can't say how they looked in that one game, but the 5 I caught this year, including the Heritage, Rustburg, Amherst games, there was no doubt who was the better team. I think they would have handled the rest of the Seminole District without a challenge, and been one of at least the semi-finalists in 4A, but my pick to win it.
There was no 2012 Briar Woods (saw in person), 2014 Lake Taylor (saw in person), or 2013 Dinwiddie (did not see, but have read several good things, may be wrong including them) level team in 4A this year. Salem and Dinwiddie were very good, but not that good.
I like rainman's comparison to Alabama. What sets Salem apart from the rest of the teams that have a great run or two, is the program. Salem is always at or near the top.
I think that is enough kicking the hornet's nest for a bit.
Byrd killed Staunton river, Salem beat Byrd, so Salem would beat Staunton River handily, because smaller school and common opponents. This opinion is ok and accepted, educated. I would like to know if any of you had seen Staunton River up close and in person. Their defense was not good, but their offense was extremely hard to get a handle on, not impossible though.
However, Appomattox would have little chance against Salem. But Appomattox demolished Amherst, who was the only loss for Salem this year. And two years ago, Salem and Appomattox put up almost identical wins against Amherst 2 weeks apart. I was at both and the feeling among many I talked with, was that Appomattox was a more explosive and overwhelming team. Seems like they would also have a good shot by Salem fan comparison logic.
Of course this educated opinion is unpopular on the Virginiapreps 4A board presented by the Salem Spartan fan club.
Danville, I didn't see the game against Dan River, so I can't say how they looked in that one game, but the 5 I caught this year, including the Heritage, Rustburg, Amherst games, there was no doubt who was the better team. I think they would have handled the rest of the Seminole District without a challenge, and been one of at least the semi-finalists in 4A, but my pick to win it.
There was no 2012 Briar Woods (saw in person), 2014 Lake Taylor (saw in person), or 2013 Dinwiddie (did not see, but have read several good things, may be wrong including them) level team in 4A this year. Salem and Dinwiddie were very good, but not that good.
I like rainman's comparison to Alabama. What sets Salem apart from the rest of the teams that have a great run or two, is the program. Salem is always at or near the top.
I think that is enough kicking the hornet's nest for a bit.
As is the case with most teams Game 14 or 15 is usually much different than game 1. I don't have a problem with the speculation, but obviously there will always be widely divergent opinions. I'll put it this way- Appomattox and Salem would be a much better game than Staunton River and Salem imo. Appomattox had a much better defense against its opponents than Staunton River had against its. Football is all about matchups. I think Appomattox/Salem would provide a much better matchup.
Here's what the VHSL Reference game simulator thinks about some of the possible matchups:
Salem 2016's probability of winning against these other 2016 teams
Westfield: 37%
Oscar Smith: 42%
Highland Springs: 40%
Stone Bridge: 43%
Staunton River: 69%
Appomattox: 62%
Riverheads: 80%
Salem 2016's probability of winning against past teams
2015 Salem: 44%
2014 Lake Taylor: 38%
2013 Dinwiddie: 42%
2012 Briar Woods: 44%
Salem 2016's probability of winning against these other 2016 teams
Westfield: 37%
Oscar Smith: 42%
Highland Springs: 40%
Stone Bridge: 43%
Staunton River: 69%
Appomattox: 62%
Riverheads: 80%
Salem 2016's probability of winning against past teams
2015 Salem: 44%
2014 Lake Taylor: 38%
2013 Dinwiddie: 42%
2012 Briar Woods: 44%
@hsorange though I don't agree with you 100%, I appreciate your vigor and position. Appo would have beat a lot of 4A teams but they would be an underdog against Salem. Could they conceivably win? Sure but it would be a big upset.
Could Salem potentially beat Highland Springs. Yes, but again it would be a huge upset.
None of these teams are that good that "they shouldn't even play the games".
My original post was that it will be a bit tougher to win a 4A state title. We have not had anyone post that BB will not be a threat in 4A.
You did poke the bear a bit, generally a team (Salem) that has been to 3 straight state title games has the right to growl a bit when provoked. But that is the price you pay for being at the mountain top. Seems like a good deal to me
Overall... glad to see another active & opinionated poster on the board.
Could Salem potentially beat Highland Springs. Yes, but again it would be a huge upset.
None of these teams are that good that "they shouldn't even play the games".
My original post was that it will be a bit tougher to win a 4A state title. We have not had anyone post that BB will not be a threat in 4A.
You did poke the bear a bit, generally a team (Salem) that has been to 3 straight state title games has the right to growl a bit when provoked. But that is the price you pay for being at the mountain top. Seems like a good deal to me
Overall... glad to see another active & opinionated poster on the board.
I saw Salem/Dinwiddie, Blacksburg/SR, and Appo play in person. I also watched the Highland Springs state game on tape. I don't think that any of them would match up well with 2015/16 HS, with the possible exception of Dinwiddie on a good night. The past two HS teams were more physical up front than many in the past but still had the wealth of speed.
I think that Appo could play with any of the Div 4 teams and it would be a coin flip. Physically they could matchup with Salem and athletically, they could match Dinwiddie. They were a very rare Div 2 team. Blacksburg was playing very very good ball at the end and I would've paid big money to see a week 16 Bburg/Salem rematch. Blacksburg will miss the big big boy inside more than many people think.
But like a previous poster said, it is impossible to hypothesize how it would work out on any given Friday/Saturday. Most of the time, it comes down to matchup and strengths vs weaknesses. As a wise coach once told me, the most unpredictable animal on the face of the earth is the 16/17 year old boy. You never know how a team will play on any given day.
I think that Appo could play with any of the Div 4 teams and it would be a coin flip. Physically they could matchup with Salem and athletically, they could match Dinwiddie. They were a very rare Div 2 team. Blacksburg was playing very very good ball at the end and I would've paid big money to see a week 16 Bburg/Salem rematch. Blacksburg will miss the big big boy inside more than many people think.
But like a previous poster said, it is impossible to hypothesize how it would work out on any given Friday/Saturday. Most of the time, it comes down to matchup and strengths vs weaknesses. As a wise coach once told me, the most unpredictable animal on the face of the earth is the 16/17 year old boy. You never know how a team will play on any given day.
On a side note to this, bulldog, I'm not sure that Highland Springs won't be even better this season. Springers keeps me up to date on all things HS, and wow, what they have in their program is awesome.
Basing these outrageous opinions on your eye test makes me think you need your eyes checked. When you're watching a team blow out inferior opponents they look awfully good. But when you finally play someone that is as talented, it's like Mike Tyson said " everyone has a plan until they get hit"
As a player who played both, I feel that Appomattox could beat Salem, their speed on defense was the best we saw all season. Their offense was not full of big plays, but they consistently drove the ball down the field and I feel they would move the ball against Salem. I feel Salem could have good success throwing the ball against Appomattox, but their defense is stifling when it comes to stopping the run. Salem's interior defensive line was not very impressive when we played them and Appomattox had a very good offensive line that generated a lot of push of off the snap of the ball. I feel you will have a hard time finding a school similar to their size that has the same team speed that they have had over the last two years.
Congrats on a great season young man. I was very impressed with your team this past year.
Salem got significantly better as the season progressed. This improvement was mostly in the interior line play. Salem even got better after dismissing a D1 athlete. Most teams have injuries that slow them down, but Salem actually got healthier in the line as the season progressed. Salem is always difficult to evaluate by counting D1 players or how the look getting off the bus or taking the field. They don't out athlete you though they do have athletes, they don't out size you, though they do have size, they don't out run you, though they do have speed. So how have they been in 11 State Championship games since 1986? They out execute their opposition. They play defense by being in the right position and they play offense by making the correct fundamental block. Because of this Salem looks like they over achieve in relationship to their talent. The bottom line is that Salem will always be pretty good, give them a few athletes and they will be real good. Last year, early in the season, for what ever reason, they executed poorly, their athletic ability could not pull the game out against Amherst. As the season went on Salem got back to playing Salem football. The State Championship game is the perfect example of what Salem hangs it's hat on, 20-22 throwing, no penalties, one turnover.
I never questioned Salem's past or their success, I am simply saying that I feel that Appomattox could more than give them a game. I understand why Salem is successful, I have played and watched film on them the last three years. They are the most fundamentally sound team we play, I am more than confident that Amherst could have beat Salem again if we had played them later in the season, but we turned the ball over too much and our defense could not make quite enough stops. Me actually playing both teams gives me a better idea than most of the people who watched the games. I understand that many of the posters on this board have been watching football for a lot longer than I have been around, but I think the 2016 Appomattox team could beat the 2016 Salem team and I would put my money on Appomattox. Just my personal opinion after playing both of them.
@Lancer For Life I think Salem was a different team by the end of the year. But if you played against both then your opinion is certainly valid.
As I said, Appo might just be that team that is that good. But they aren't beating Highland Springs lets be serious. Nobody said tht, just thought I'd throw that out there.
This will sound strange but...
I don't think Appo would have beat Salem, but I think they had a better chance to beat Salem then they would of beating Dinwiddie bc of matchups. Even though Salem beat Dinwiddie.
@southbottomU
Beating Salem is an accomplishment in itself, but beating them in the post season is much harder. They peek at the right time. Based on recent history, if they drop a game or 2 I still give them a 50/50 shot of repping the west in the 4A game. This year against Dinwiddie was the last straw for me. I have an admitted east bias and Dinwiddie had a phenomenal team, but after seeing that game I just couldn't deny it anymore that Salem were just ballers. Salem gets their 9 month victory lap. Then we all get a shot at the crown.
In the 4a classification I have come to the realization that my eastern bias is unfounded. Its a coin flip between east and west.
As I said, Appo might just be that team that is that good. But they aren't beating Highland Springs lets be serious. Nobody said tht, just thought I'd throw that out there.
This will sound strange but...
I don't think Appo would have beat Salem, but I think they had a better chance to beat Salem then they would of beating Dinwiddie bc of matchups. Even though Salem beat Dinwiddie.
@southbottomU
Beating Salem is an accomplishment in itself, but beating them in the post season is much harder. They peek at the right time. Based on recent history, if they drop a game or 2 I still give them a 50/50 shot of repping the west in the 4A game. This year against Dinwiddie was the last straw for me. I have an admitted east bias and Dinwiddie had a phenomenal team, but after seeing that game I just couldn't deny it anymore that Salem were just ballers. Salem gets their 9 month victory lap. Then we all get a shot at the crown.
In the 4a classification I have come to the realization that my eastern bias is unfounded. Its a coin flip between east and west.
I agree that Salem would have been a much different team the 2nd time around if we had played them in the semis, I can only imagine what the atmosphere would have been like. Sadly, we were not able to complete our end of the bargain as 5 turnovers and a poor defensive performance against Dominion was our end. The only game we that we were outplayed all year was Appomattox, and we lost handily. Even in that game we had a fumble on the three yard line and a touchdown that was called back just before halftime, but the past is the past and we can't change it. Amherst will be tough this year but they play a daunting schedule that includes Salem, GW, Blacksburg, and the always tough Seminole District. They return a strong line, a handful of wideouts, the QB will be in his third year of starting. The running game will not be as strong as both Page and Woodfolk graduate but they have some capable kids moving up with good speed but I would not go as far as saying they are gamebreakers. I hope the best for all teams, this Region should be one of the best in the state.
Salem's defense against Amherst is to Salem's defense against Dinwiddie as Phyllis Diller is to Kate Upton.
You youngsters will have to Google Ms. Diller.
You youngsters will have to Google Ms. Diller.
Very well written young man. How do you feel Amherst will be this year. I will miss the team from last year tremendously
I was going to give the same compliment to Lancer, Wikki. It's refreshing to have a young person add their thoughts, and in such a clear, articulate voice.
Thank you Lancer for joining the forum. All of us old guys and gals have a lot to say about the game we love, but it's always from the outside looking in. Your prospective is a great addition.
Are you furthering your education somewhere? Will football be a part of it?
Sadly Spartan, I remember when Phyllis Diller was just becoming a star? My, how time flys.
Thank you Lancer for joining the forum. All of us old guys and gals have a lot to say about the game we love, but it's always from the outside looking in. Your prospective is a great addition.
Are you furthering your education somewhere? Will football be a part of it?
Sadly Spartan, I remember when Phyllis Diller was just becoming a star? My, how time flys.
Just one more thought concerning rating teams on how many D1 athletes they have. Back in 98 and 99 Salem had a middle linebacker named Chris Gumear. He was 5 10. 205. He was the 4 a defensive player of the year in 98 and 99. He was as good a middle linebacker in high school that I have seen. Because of his lack of size he did not get a D1 offer. He could have gone D1 1 or DIii but chose not to. He ended his football career and attended Va Tech. So when evaluating Salem in 98 and 99 he does not go down as a D1 athlete, but he was easily one of the best or possibly the best linebacker those two years in 4a football. I am sure there are quite a few stories like this.
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Salem being 50/50 to beat Staunton River is hilarious. They would wholesale slaughter SR. Salem's D wasn't even comparatively that good last year as far as Salem defenses go and look what they did last, especially as the season progressed, leading up to holding Dinwiddie to a season low. Go back 2 years to 2015 and SR maybe would have scored when Salem took out the first string. The 2015 D was a monster and ate up 2 offenses in the last 2 games of the season that came in averaging 50+ ppg, including that vaunted JF rushing attack that did a whole lot of nothing that entire game. SR couldn't move the ball on Blacksburg last year, Salem could do nothing but move the ball on Blacksburg.
Those kids live to play offenses like SR. You're not going to trick Salem into playing dumb football with missed assignments and bad positioning, it's literally the worst way to try and beat them.
That also says absolutely nothing of what Salem would do offensively to SR, which is way worse than what the D would do.
Those kids live to play offenses like SR. You're not going to trick Salem into playing dumb football with missed assignments and bad positioning, it's literally the worst way to try and beat them.
That also says absolutely nothing of what Salem would do offensively to SR, which is way worse than what the D would do.
Personally I feel Amherst will have to throw the ball more this year than they have in the past 3 or 4 years. I think their line is going to be big and for the most part very experienced, so if they want to run the football, I feel they can but they will not have the same explosiveness in the backfield. The defense loses a fair amount of starters, both defensive ends, and both middle linebackers, and a couple secondary guys. They have capable underclassmen who got some quality game time last season that should be able to fill in. If I had to put an over/under on the amount of wins they are going to have I would set that number at 7. Salem will be tough as always, Blacksburg is returning a lot of talent at the skill positions, GW will be loaded with athletes, and Heritage is gonna be damn tough to beat this year if they stay healthy. I am feeling 8-2 at best or 5-5 at worst, just depending who steps up, its high school football, anything can happen.
Thanks for the compliment. I am continuing my education and playing football at the next level at Washington and Lee University.
You will be playing for one of the best coaches with Coach Abell.
Really happy for you. Enjoy your college years. It's an opportunity you have worked hard for. We will be following you over the next few years. Best wishes.
Thanks everyone I am very excited about my next four years and the opportunity that I have in front of me. I remember being 5 or 6 years old and attending camps put on by Coach Abell and his staff at Amherst. It is just crazy to think that he will be my coach over the next 4 years. Washington and Lee not only will offer me the opportunity to continue my athletic career, it will also give me a great opportunity to have a good job right out of college. The networking and connections are amazing up there, I am beyond blessed for this opportunity I have received.
I'm sure this transfer will help, but Millbrook has a long way to go to be elite. Salem 45. Millbrook 7 halftime in playoffs last year.
A very thorough and knowledgeable post, as usual, Mike. You hit on most of the key Blacksburg players in your list. Another player who could make an impact for BHS in '17 is Brian Mitchell, the son of the VT defensive backfield coach of the same name.
Several of Blacksburg's players have made tremendous strides in the weight room over the winter. Some are now noticeably "ripped." I've attended some of the passing drills and the 7-on-7 last Thursday at Salem and was mildly surprised at how much muscle mass some of the guys have put on, and those are just the so-called skill position players. I haven't seen as much of the linemen but several of them spent some time in the weight room over the winter, too.
In summary, Blacksburg isn't sitting on the laurels of their 3A championship, as they shouldn't. They realize the jump to 4A is an added challenge, and winning it all in 3A last year puts Blacksburg in the position of being the hunted - not the hunter - which is new territory of late for the Bruins.
I just wanted to say how much I'm enjoying this thread! You guys (ladies, too, I'm wondering?) know your 4A (now just Class 4 . . . old habits will be hard to break!) football! Keep the good discussion going.
SpartanOfYore: Your memory is much better than mine, as I'm not remembering the encounter, but I was probably going over broadcast stuff in my head and was "zoning out" as I'm prone to do. I was very impressed with the number of Salem fans that came to Zable Stadium early to help cheer for Blacksburg in the first title game. I don't know how many Bruins fans stayed for Salem's game (I was on the team bus) but I suspect many (probably most) opted to leave and get back home before the team did to welcome them back. Had the times been reversed I suspect many Bruins fans would have gotten to the stadium early to help cheer on Salem. Despite beating Blacksburg's brains out the last few years we like to "keep it in the River Ridge" as much as possible.
This jump up to Class 4 is going to be interesting, to say the least!
Coach Abell loved Amherst and it showed. We were all devastated when he left.
. When we went walked by Blacksburg fan. Someone said go Salem. He did the thumbs down sign. So not all Blacksburg fans were for Salem
Isn't Phyllis Diller the younger sibling of BleedingNavy?
That explains a lot of things.Isn't Phyllis Diller the younger sibling of BleedingNavy?
Put Salem vs Blacksburg on the VHSL Simulator. See What happens.
Put the 4A and 3A Runner ups, Dinwiddie and Staunton River. See what happens.
Heck, put Blacksburg up against my boys from Cville. They only have a 65% chance of winning. Or, put Staunton River up against Lafayette, a team that didn't make the 4A Finals. Lafayette has a 58% chance of winning. I don't know how good Blacksburg will do, but I think we can say the jump to 4A will not be easy by any means. You also have to remember, the Bruins were 5-5 before the playoffs last year, with a loss to 3A Hidden Valley. The Bruins did catch fire, and I must say I was pulling for them to go all the way last year after they started to catch fire, but I seriously doubt the Bruins can do that on the 4A level, when you replace Lord Botetourt in the first round with Amherst, or Dominion. First off, Amherst would have a 79% chance of beating LB, where Blacksburg only has a 58%. This is a lot of simulating and speculation, but if Blacksburg goes 5-5 again, don't expect another title run, or even a first round win, or even a playoff APPEARANCE. Now, Blacksburg might have the stuff to do it differently, I personally have them going 7-3 and being second in Region D, but Blacksburg proved last year anything can happen...
Put the 4A and 3A Runner ups, Dinwiddie and Staunton River. See what happens.
Heck, put Blacksburg up against my boys from Cville. They only have a 65% chance of winning. Or, put Staunton River up against Lafayette, a team that didn't make the 4A Finals. Lafayette has a 58% chance of winning. I don't know how good Blacksburg will do, but I think we can say the jump to 4A will not be easy by any means. You also have to remember, the Bruins were 5-5 before the playoffs last year, with a loss to 3A Hidden Valley. The Bruins did catch fire, and I must say I was pulling for them to go all the way last year after they started to catch fire, but I seriously doubt the Bruins can do that on the 4A level, when you replace Lord Botetourt in the first round with Amherst, or Dominion. First off, Amherst would have a 79% chance of beating LB, where Blacksburg only has a 58%. This is a lot of simulating and speculation, but if Blacksburg goes 5-5 again, don't expect another title run, or even a first round win, or even a playoff APPEARANCE. Now, Blacksburg might have the stuff to do it differently, I personally have them going 7-3 and being second in Region D, but Blacksburg proved last year anything can happen...
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