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My State Tournament Predictions

kwhs95fan

VaPreps All Region
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Oct 17, 2006
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All four quarterfinal games should be well played games. No team really stands out above any other at this point. With that said, these are just my predictions on what I think might happen. Feel free to chime in with your picks as well.

State Quarterfinals:

Colonial Beach vs Sussex. The Beach comes in as Region A champs, after winning the NND tournament last week. In Corvion Davis, they have a guy who averages close to 25 ppg. But they are far from a one man show. Jett, Lucas, and Pietras can all put up points as well. Jett just put up 33 in the regional championship. Sussex has flown under the radar this year while playing in the grueling Tri Rivers District. That however makes them battle tested. They went into a hostile environment at Riverheads and nearly pulled it out. My pick: Colonial Beach 72 Sussex 63

Riverheads vs Mathews. Riverheads was my preseason #1 and while their regular season record was not as great as some expected, they too have been battle tested by playing in the Shenandoah District. They are a great shooting team, led by Grant Painter and brother Adam, but others can also step up, if need be. Mathews is a team that I was high on coming into the season, even before anyone really knew who they were. They are extremely well coached and have a stud in Thomas, but a solid team around him. The edge here, might be the crowd that Riverheads will bring, and how well Mathews responds. My pick: Riverheads 56 Mathews 54.

Parry McCluer vs Grundy. PM surprised me by winning Region C, but it was well deserved. Led by Spencer Hamilton, they are a great shooting team and play solid defense, which is what you'd expect from a Mike Cartolaro coached team. Grundy has been ranked #1 in my poll for most of the season. However, I didn't pick them to win the region, and while they didn't, they surely proved that they belong and are more than capable of winning it all. Cade Looney is one of the best players in the state, and the Wave will need him to come up big. My pick. Grundy 47 Parry McCluer 45

Eastside vs Auburn. This is a rematch of a regular season game that Auburn won by 27. I don't think this game will be a blowout. Both teams have star players in Ethan Powers of Eastside and Ethan Millirons from Auburn. Which team will have its role players step up? Is this the year that Eastside finally gets over the hump? How will Auburn handle the long ride? My pick. Auburn 64 Eastside 59

Regional Semis:

Colonial Beach vs Riverheads. I'm not sure if these two have ever met in basketball. I know they met in football in the fall and will play again next fall. If this matchup does take place, I believe Riverheads will be the "host" team. This could be a shooting expedition by both teams. A key for Riverheads could be if they get their big man, Homer Robson back from injury. CB isn't a big team at all, but they are extremely talented and athletic. This could come down to which team controls the pace. My pick. Colonial Beach 62 Riverheads 58

Auburn vs Grundy. For this matchup to happen, it would mean that both teams went on the road and won in the state Quarterfinals. Grundy will have the size advantage with Looney and Keene, but the key could be how well McCoy can handle Ethan Millirons. This is honestly a game, like many in this tournament that I think could be a toss up. My pick. Auburn 57 Grundy 50.

State Championship:

Colonial Beach vs Auburn. If this happens, it would be a fun game to watch and I definitely would look forward to seeing. Both teams shoot it really well and they both have star players. Can Davis, Jett and company lead CB to their first state title since 2008? Can Millions take an Auburn team that only has one senior, to the promised land? A couple of weeks ago I said if I had to pick a state winner at that moment, I'd pick Auburn. I'm sticking with that. My pick, Auburn 67 CB 64

Your 2020 Class 1A State Champions: Auburn
 
Nice breakdown and I can’t really question your choices. I would say don’t sleep on Riverheads, they are scrappy and seem to find a way to be in every game. I really think any of the eight could win it. Too bad the semi’s aren’t together like the old days. Be nice to see those two games
 
Nice breakdown and I can’t really question your choices. I would say don’t sleep on Riverheads, they are scrappy and seem to find a way to be in every game. I really think any of the eight could win it. Too bad the semi’s aren’t together like the old days. Be nice to see those two games
First of all, great to see you on here. It's been awhile. I've always loved your passion and knowledge. Yes, I totally agree on Riverheads. I had them my preseason number one for a reason. It would not surprise me in the least to see them cutting down the nets. Like you, I wish the semifinals and finals were in the same place. I used to take off work for the entire week and just enjoy the slew of games.
 
Interesting to see such a detailed review. We will all want to come back and re-read it after the quarters to see how close you came.

To answer one of your questions, and expand upon it a little, Riverheads has met both Colonial Beach and Mathews in basketball before. I am not home at the moment to check my records but the game with CB would have been around 2006 give or take. It was a quarter-final game that was actually played in the Siegel Center, because it came during that time they were using the Supersite concept and that was the closest one for CB to host. I don't remember the exact score but CB won by 15 or so and went on to capture the state title.

As for Mathews, the Gladiators traveled there either two or three years ago for what I guess was a state quarterfinal (I will have to check on that because if it was, then that means that RHS has made the state tournament three years in a row already, making this the fourth, and I don't think that is the case) Anyway, Mathews had a stud that year that RHS could not handle and the Gladiators were very young, so it did not go well...about an 18 point difference if I recall.

As I have alluded to in another post, RHS has not had the best of luck against Region A competition over the years. In other games against the region, the Gladiators have lost to Lancaster and of course last year the two-point buzzer-beating loss to Surry. Their only victory that I can think of against Region A (and again I am away from my records right now) was that classic game that some of us will never forget in the 2004 quarters against W and L.

HOWEVER, there are two big differences this year that I hope will indeed make a difference. First of all the Gladiators are older and more experienced. The guys that absorbed those last three losses (Mathews, Lancaster and Surry) are now seniors. Secondly to the best of my recollection EVERY game played against a Region A team has been played down there. Granted it was rarely on a team's home floor (Mathews being the exception) but it was still on the road, whereas this year RHS has FINALLY earned the right to host, a goal that was set at the beginning of the year.

So if either of the Region A teams can come in here and knock us off, they will simply have to be better and deserve to win it, because the Big Red will be on a mission!
 
The Mathews game was likely a East Regional game when there were only two regions. Mathews lost to Lancaster in the region semis and Essex beast AltaVista at the same juncture. The CB game would've been 2009 as that's the year they won states in Division 1
 
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Interesting to see such a detailed review. We will all want to come back and re-read it after the quarters to see how close you came.

To answer one of your questions, and expand upon it a little, Riverheads has met both Colonial Beach and Mathews in basketball before. I am not home at the moment to check my records but the game with CB would have been around 2006 give or take. It was a quarter-final game that was actually played in the Siegel Center, because it came during that time they were using the Supersite concept and that was the closest one for CB to host. I don't remember the exact score but CB won by 15 or so and went on to capture the state title.

As for Mathews, the Gladiators traveled there either two or three years ago for what I guess was a state quarterfinal (I will have to check on that because if it was, then that means that RHS has made the state tournament three years in a row already, making this the fourth, and I don't think that is the case) Anyway, Mathews had a stud that year that RHS could not handle and the Gladiators were very young, so it did not go well...about an 18 point difference if I recall.

As I have alluded to in another post, RHS has not had the best of luck against Region A competition over the years. In other games against the region, the Gladiators have lost to Lancaster and of course last year the two-point buzzer-beating loss to Surry. Their only victory that I can think of against Region A (and again I am away from my records right now) was that classic game that some of us will never forget in the 2004 quarters against W and L.

HOWEVER, there are two big differences this year that I hope will indeed make a difference. First of all the Gladiators are older and more experienced. The guys that absorbed those last three losses (Mathews, Lancaster and Surry) are now seniors. Secondly to the best of my recollection EVERY game played against a Region A team has been played down there. Granted it was rarely on a team's home floor (Mathews being the exception) but it was still on the road, whereas this year RHS has FINALLY earned the right to host, a goal that was set at the beginning of the year.

So if either of the Region A teams can come in here and knock us off, they will simply have to be better and deserve to win it, because the Big Red will be on a mission!
I did pretty good in picking the regionals from start to finish, but this state tournament is so wide open, that I could very easily get every game wrong. Lol. I think it will be an exceptional tournament between a lot of evenly matched teams.
 
Eastside is peaking at the right time but with Auburn losing unexpectedlt, they got a tougher draw I believe. But Eastside doesn't have to travel so that could help make.up some of those 27 points from the first meeting.

Hopefully one Region D team stays alive but I'm not so sure
 
NND, thanks for your corrections. Yes the CB game at the Siegel Center was in 2009, and yes the game at Mathews was a regional game. Back then they had divided the state into "conferences" which I think everybody found more confusing that anything else. So the Gladiators advanced beyond their conference tournament and then played Mathews in what I guess would have been the quarterfinal in the "East" Regionals. Fortunately that conference business did not last long. So yes, this will be Riverheads' third straight year in the state tournament but their first chance to host a game.
 
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The Mathews game was likely a East Regional game when there were only two regions. Mathews lost to Lancaster in the region semis and Essex beast AltaVista at the same juncture. The CB game would've been 2009 as that's the year they won states in Division 1
I believe you are right don’t recall the young man that played for CB but he was really good
 
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Tristan Carey .... even made sportscenter top 10 for dunking over someone while at Longwood University
T.T. Carey was one of the best high school players that I ever saw. He signed with LaSalle out of high school, but transferred after one year to Longwood. The last I heard, he was playing professionally in Switzerland. They had another really good player on that team as well named Dylan Farinet. He went on to have a solid career at Mary Washington.
 
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T.T. Carey was one of the best high school players that I ever saw. He signed with LaSalle out of high school, but transferred after one year to Longwood. The last I heard, he was playing professionally in Switzerland. They had another really good player on that team as well named Dylan Farinet. He went on to have a solid career at Mary Washington.
 
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Eastside is peaking at the right time but with Auburn losing unexpectedlt, they got a tougher draw I believe. But Eastside doesn't have to travel so that could help make.up some of those 27 points from the first meeting.

Hopefully one Region D team stays alive but I'm not so sure
I’m not saying this in an disparaging way at all, and I hope you don’t take it that way, but my question is, Why did Auburn lose unexpectedly? PM had a say in that, I said in another thread, when PM played GW, no one gave them a chance. Everyone said they are young, I said in that thread it was a David vs Goliath game.

Everyone knew Goliath when he was on the mountaintop and all the Israelites on the other side were afraid of him. But then came David, no one knew about David, UNTIL he went into that valley and he slayed the giant. Then everyone knew him.

PM beat Grayson. They beat George Wythe. They beat Auburn. ALL MED teams. They played Auburn on a court they had never played on, Auburn had many times. And we beat Auburn.

My point is, anything can happen, but to me, it wasn’t unexpectedly. Our kids expected to win, as I’m sure Auburn’s kids did. It was a well played, back & forth game that was very physical. PM won. To me, it wasn’t unexpectedly. And again, I’m not saying this in a disparaging way, I just want our young men to know, because they read VA Preps, and I want them to understand, we expected them to win.
 
Did anything happen to PM anywhere along the line that turned them around? I say that because Riverheads beat them twice by an average of about 25 points and I thought at the time "hmmm that is not a typical Blues team." Now of course we all know what a wizard Cartolaro is, so did he just need time to work a UVa kind of transformation, or was someone injured at the time we played them?
 
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Did anything happen to PM anywhere along the line that turned them around? I say that because Riverheads beat them twice by an average of about 25 points and I thought at the time "hmmm that is not a typical Blues team." Now of course we all know what a wizard Cartolaro is, so did he just need time to work a UVa kind of transformation, or was someone injured at the time we played them?
I think it is a combination of things, Cartalaro is a wizard, and has done an amazing job with these young men. No injuries. Different team from when we played RHS last
 
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I’m not saying this in an disparaging way at all, and I hope you don’t take it that way, but my question is, Why did Auburn lose unexpectedly? PM had a say in that, I said in another thread, when PM played GW, no one gave them a chance. Everyone said they are young, I said in that thread it was a David vs Goliath game.

Everyone knew Goliath when he was on the mountaintop and all the Israelites on the other side were afraid of him. But then came David, no one knew about David, UNTIL he went into that valley and he slayed the giant. Then everyone knew him.

PM beat Grayson. They beat George Wythe. They beat Auburn. ALL MED teams. They played Auburn on a court they had never played on, Auburn had many times. And we beat Auburn.

My point is, anything can happen, but to me, it wasn’t unexpectedly. Our kids expected to win, as I’m sure Auburn’s kids did. It was a well played, back & forth game that was very physical. PM won. To me, it wasn’t unexpectedly. And again, I’m not saying this in a disparaging way, I just want our young men to know, because they read VA Preps, and I want them to understand, we expected them to win.

Okay? I expect your fans to expect them to win but most outsiders saw Auburn as the favorite. It wasn't a Glenvar/Dan River type upset but it was an upset I believe as Auburn was the front runner all season.
It isn't a negative about PM, just that Auburn had played themselves into the favorite role. PM wasn't the most consistent team IIRC but getting hot at the right time matters and they seem to have peaked at the right time, kinda like Eastside.
 
I’m not saying this in an disparaging way at all, and I hope you don’t take it that way, but my question is, Why did Auburn lose unexpectedly? PM had a say in that, I said in another thread, when PM played GW, no one gave them a chance. Everyone said they are young, I said in that thread it was a David vs Goliath game.

Everyone knew Goliath when he was on the mountaintop and all the Israelites on the other side were afraid of him. But then came David, no one knew about David, UNTIL he went into that valley and he slayed the giant. Then everyone knew him.

PM beat Grayson. They beat George Wythe. They beat Auburn. ALL MED teams. They played Auburn on a court they had never played on, Auburn had many times. And we beat Auburn.

My point is, anything can happen, but to me, it wasn’t unexpectedly. Our kids expected to win, as I’m sure Auburn’s kids did. It was a well played, back & forth game that was very physical. PM won. To me, it wasn’t unexpectedly. And again, I’m not saying this in a disparaging way, I just want our young men to know, because they read VA Preps, and I want them to understand, we expected them to win.

I think it was unexpected because Auburn beat PM last year when PM had all the seniors. Auburn has most of that team back and PM has only one back that played. Riverheads routing them twice also would be a reason. The 2 big kids for PM are difference makers on the defensive end now.
 
All four quarterfinal games should be well played games. No team really stands out above any other at this point. With that said, these are just my predictions on what I think might happen. Feel free to chime in with your picks as well.

State Quarterfinals:

Colonial Beach vs Sussex. The Beach comes in as Region A champs, after winning the NND tournament last week. In Corvion Davis, they have a guy who averages close to 25 ppg. But they are far from a one man show. Jett, Lucas, and Pietras can all put up points as well. Jett just put up 33 in the regional championship. Sussex has flown under the radar this year while playing in the grueling Tri Rivers District. That however makes them battle tested. They went into a hostile environment at Riverheads and nearly pulled it out. My pick: Colonial Beach 72 Sussex 63

Riverheads vs Mathews. Riverheads was my preseason #1 and while their regular season record was not as great as some expected, they too have been battle tested by playing in the Shenandoah District. They are a great shooting team, led by Grant Painter and brother Adam, but others can also step up, if need be. Mathews is a team that I was high on coming into the season, even before anyone really knew who they were. They are extremely well coached and have a stud in Thomas, but a solid team around him. The edge here, might be the crowd that Riverheads will bring, and how well Mathews responds. My pick: Riverheads 56 Mathews 54.

Parry McCluer vs Grundy. PM surprised me by winning Region C, but it was well deserved. Led by Spencer Hamilton, they are a great shooting team and play solid defense, which is what you'd expect from a Mike Cartolaro coached team. Grundy has been ranked #1 in my poll for most of the season. However, I didn't pick them to win the region, and while they didn't, they surely proved that they belong and are more than capable of winning it all. Cade Looney is one of the best players in the state, and the Wave will need him to come up big. My pick. Grundy 47 Parry McCluer 45

Eastside vs Auburn. This is a rematch of a regular season game that Auburn won by 27. I don't think this game will be a blowout. Both teams have star players in Ethan Powers of Eastside and Ethan Millirons from Auburn. Which team will have its role players step up? Is this the year that Eastside finally gets over the hump? How will Auburn handle the long ride? My pick. Auburn 64 Eastside 59

Regional Semis:

Colonial Beach vs Riverheads. I'm not sure if these two have ever met in basketball. I know they met in football in the fall and will play again next fall. If this matchup does take place, I believe Riverheads will be the "host" team. This could be a shooting expedition by both teams. A key for Riverheads could be if they get their big man, Homer Robson back from injury. CB isn't a big team at all, but they are extremely talented and athletic. This could come down to which team controls the pace. My pick. Colonial Beach 62 Riverheads 58

Auburn vs Grundy. For this matchup to happen, it would mean that both teams went on the road and won in the state Quarterfinals. Grundy will have the size advantage with Looney and Keene, but the key could be how well McCoy can handle Ethan Millirons. This is honestly a game, like many in this tournament that I think could be a toss up. My pick. Auburn 57 Grundy 50.

State Championship:

Colonial Beach vs Auburn. If this happens, it would be a fun game to watch and I definitely would look forward to seeing. Both teams shoot it really well and they both have star players. Can Davis, Jett and company lead CB to their first state title since 2008? Can Millions take an Auburn team that only has one senior, to the promised land? A couple of weeks ago I said if I had to pick a state winner at that moment, I'd pick Auburn. I'm sticking with that. My pick, Auburn 67 CB 64

Your 2020 Class 1A State Champions: Auburn
Sussex will upset Colonial Beach 53 - 48 holding Davis to under 15 and forcing CB role players to show up in a failed attempt. Tigers will face Matthews as they will send Riverheads packing.
 
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Sussex will upset Colonial Beach 53 - 48 holding Davis to under 15 and forcing CB role players to show up in a failed attempt. Tigers will face Matthews as they will send Riverheads packing.
I read your post, then went back and looked at your name and understood how you came to that conclusion. But if you think holding Davis to 15 and banking on the rest to stutter, it's going to be long night for Sussex. The Beach has 6 shooters that can score. Jett just had 35 against Matthew's. The Pietrus kid just SHOOTS 7 to 8 feet behind the arc. And just to top it off they probably have the fastest PG in 1A. Arguably the best guard combo and best finisher in 1A. If Sussex wins, it's just a horrendous shooting night for the Beach, but that's part of the game!!!
 
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I read your post, then went back and looked at your name and understood how you came to that conclusion. But if you think holding Davis to 15 and banking on the rest to stutter, it's going to be long night for Sussex. The Beach has 6 shooters that can score. Jett just had 35 against Matthew's. The Pietrus kid just SHOOTS 7 to 8 feet behind the arc. And just to top it off they probably have the fastest PG in 1A. Arguably the best guard combo and best finisher in 1A. If Sussex wins, it's just a horrendous shooting night for the Beach, but that's part of the game!!!
Its a shame that we still must play game , and cant just give CB the win, no were you mentioned defense , sounds like street ball to me , im sure CB feels entitled to win state but nothing is easy or given this time of year ,teams who sometimes breeze through the regular season will sometimes run into adversity and cant respond , Sussex has zero pressure and no hype to live up to its all on CB. Sussex wins off of grit and defensive rebounding from failed half court shooting attempts, Sussex wins !
 
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Its a shame that we still must play game , and cant just give CB the win, no were you mentioned defense , sounds like street ball to me , im sure CB feels entitled to win state but nothing is easy or given this time of year ,teams who sometimes breeze through the regular season will sometimes run into adversity and cant respond , Sussex has zero pressure and no hype to live up to its all on CB. Sussex wins off of grit and defensive rebounding from failed half court shooting attempts, Sussex wins !
Breeze through? Have you seen CB's schedule and opponents they have faced? At this point in the season, nothing is given and none of these 8 teams have made it this far by chance. Just let the guys play and we'll see what the outcome is.
 
Its a shame that we still must play game , and cant just give CB the win, no were you mentioned defense , sounds like street ball to me , im sure CB feels entitled to win state but nothing is easy or given this time of year ,teams who sometimes breeze through the regular season will sometimes run into adversity and cant respond , Sussex has zero pressure and no hype to live up to its all on CB. Sussex wins off of grit and defensive rebounding from failed half court shooting attempts, Sussex wins !
They definitely didn't BREEZE through their conference. They didn't even win their conference. There's no pressure on the Beach, pressure is only present when one is not prepared. As nnkbballfan stated, " have you seen their schedule?" These kids have worked their butts off since last year. But for you to think that its Davis and a bunch of role players, you're going to be in for a surprise. Whether streetball or I-95 beatball, at the end of the day it is what you're going to have to beat ball. The Beach is probably the smallest team left in the ENTIRE state tournament!!! #AllGasNoBrakes
 
They definitely didn't BREEZE through their conference. They didn't even win their conference. There's no pressure on the Beach, pressure is only present when one is not prepared. As nnkbballfan stated, " have you seen their schedule?" These kids have worked their butts off since last year. But for you to think that its Davis and a bunch of role players, you're going to be in for a surprise. Whether streetball or I-95 beatball, at the end of the day it is what you're going to have to beat ball. The Beach is probably the smallest team left in the ENTIRE state tournament!!! #AllGasNoBrakes
Have you seen Sussex scheduled lol ? Ask Riverheads how grity they are , no need you know what we have done on the football gridiron trust its the same grity mentality on the hardwood , Sussex wins !
 
Have you seen Sussex scheduled lol ? Ask Riverheads how grity they are , no need you know what we have done on the football gridiron trust its the same grity mentality on the hardwood , Sussex wins !
If i ask Riverheads, they're going to tell me that yall lost. I guess we look at losing differently, IJS !!!
 
If i ask Riverheads, they're going to tell me that yall lost. I guess we look at losing differently, IJS !!!
Yeah we do CB has become perennials at doing so, Sussex will compete with the CB All Stars !
 
trutiger: It is all in fun of course but interesting that you would predict that both road teams will win the A/B quarter-finals. One maybe but I will be surprised if both do.
Yeah man you know me , just a haunch man it will happen , CB is on upset alert for sure , just watch and wait !
 
go on Facebook to CB Hoops page and see how our TEAM spent its time this week. CB Hoops involves the entire community and acts as one family. Go check it out, you might learn something. Might learn how to build a program instead of one year you're here baby and the next year you're gooonnnnnneeeee!!! lol
 
“ Streetball” lol
This is a funny thread. Streetballers and all stars is probably not the terms anyone would apply to CBs team. They do play with hustle, defense, ball sharing and fire when they’re in their groove. The combination of which have beaten numerous teams that looked at them and thought it was going to be an easy game. If CB brings their A game, Sussex better be clicking on all cylinders. And just trying to limit Corvion to 15 isn’t going to be enough. That’s been tried a couple times. Northampton thought they locked it up after taking the lead in their game recently. The ‘street ballers’ had a different opinion. BTW, CB beat Northampton twice (once by 30). Did Sussex beat Northampton?

I hope they both bring their A games and the officials call a good game. We will probably even leave the street ball moves at home, lol. We don’t need it.
 
The only reason CB is in states is because Northampton beat themselves by not slowing the game down with 2 mins left in the 3rd quarter up 12 points and their start pg out of the game with 4 fouls , so let’s not talk about how good they are .. play that game at Northampton and you have a different scenario right now with cb sitting home .
 
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This is a funny thread. Streetballers and all stars is probably not the terms anyone would apply to CBs team. They do play with hustle, defense, ball sharing and fire when they’re in their groove. The combination of which have beaten numerous teams that looked at them and thought it was going to be an easy game. If CB brings their A game, Sussex better be clicking on all cylinders. And just trying to limit Corvion to 15 isn’t going to be enough. That’s been tried a couple times. Northampton thought they locked it up after taking the lead in their game recently. The ‘street ballers’ had a different opinion. BTW, CB beat Northampton twice (once by 30). Did Sussex beat Northampton?

I hope they both bring their A games and the officials call a good game. We will probably even leave the street ball moves at home, lol. We don’t need it.
Never seen them play lol, i went off of what you posted , you said it not me , CB lol !
 
This is a funny thread. Streetballers and all stars is probably not the terms anyone would apply to CBs team. They do play with hustle, defense, ball sharing and fire when they’re in their groove. The combination of which have beaten numerous teams that looked at them and thought it was going to be an easy game. If CB brings their A game, Sussex better be clicking on all cylinders. And just trying to limit Corvion to 15 isn’t going to be enough. That’s been tried a couple times. Northampton thought they locked it up after taking the lead in their game recently. The ‘street ballers’ had a different opinion. BTW, CB beat Northampton twice (once by 30). Did Sussex beat Northampton?

I hope they both bring their A games and the officials call a good game. We will probably even leave the street ball moves at home, lol. We don’t need it.
Sussex not claiming to be the greatest team ever , your poster posted how super CB is
 
The only reason CB is in states is because Northampton beat themselves by not slowing the game down with 2 mins left in the 3rd quarter up 12 points and their start pg out of the game with 4 fouls , so let’s not talk about how good they are .. play that game at Northampton and you have a different scenario right now with cb sitting home .
They high as a March Kite playing streetball lol
 
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