As customary each year... I look to the past to forecast the future... Each year I build on the data...
I look at three things... what the champion the year before did in the playoffs... how many wins that team had the year before and finally... where they finished ratings wise the year before in their class/division...
So let's start with the playoffs... 51% of teams that won it all reached the state semifinals the year before which play into the favor of Hopewell, James Monroe, Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg...
5 of the last 7 champions made the state semifinals the year before... again playing into the favor of the 4 state semifinalist from last year.
To sum up the playoffs... more teams have won a state title after reaching the state semifinals than any other... again playing into the favor of the final four from last season.
So now let's look at wins...
81% of the champions had 6 or more wins the year before and that would apply to 3 of the final four from last season... the only one eliminated would be James Monroe who only won 4 games during the regular season last year.
5 of the last 7 champions had 7 or more wins during the season before winning it all and that would apply to Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg.
Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg also had 9 wins during the regular season and 7 times the champion won 9 games the year before winning it all.
So now let's look at ratings...
55% of the champions were in the top ten the year before winning it all and that certainly would apply to Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg.
Both Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg finished in the top eight as well and 5 of the last 7 champions did the same...
Finally... Previous champions finished 1st, 3rd, 5th or 14th in the ratings twice the year before winning it all... That would eliminate Heritage-Lynchburg..
Thus it would appear that Staunton River will be your Class 3 Champ in 2018.
Now if there is a dark horse... look no further than Phoebus who meets all the standards except for the state semifinals...
I look at three things... what the champion the year before did in the playoffs... how many wins that team had the year before and finally... where they finished ratings wise the year before in their class/division...
So let's start with the playoffs... 51% of teams that won it all reached the state semifinals the year before which play into the favor of Hopewell, James Monroe, Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg...
5 of the last 7 champions made the state semifinals the year before... again playing into the favor of the 4 state semifinalist from last year.
To sum up the playoffs... more teams have won a state title after reaching the state semifinals than any other... again playing into the favor of the final four from last season.
So now let's look at wins...
81% of the champions had 6 or more wins the year before and that would apply to 3 of the final four from last season... the only one eliminated would be James Monroe who only won 4 games during the regular season last year.
5 of the last 7 champions had 7 or more wins during the season before winning it all and that would apply to Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg.
Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg also had 9 wins during the regular season and 7 times the champion won 9 games the year before winning it all.
So now let's look at ratings...
55% of the champions were in the top ten the year before winning it all and that certainly would apply to Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg.
Both Staunton River and Heritage-Lynchburg finished in the top eight as well and 5 of the last 7 champions did the same...
Finally... Previous champions finished 1st, 3rd, 5th or 14th in the ratings twice the year before winning it all... That would eliminate Heritage-Lynchburg..
Thus it would appear that Staunton River will be your Class 3 Champ in 2018.
Now if there is a dark horse... look no further than Phoebus who meets all the standards except for the state semifinals...
