There have been 58 teams that have vied for a state title in 3A/Division 3 from 1987 to present day.
Of those 58 teams, 14 did not qualify for the playoffs the year before.
That said, only twice have two teams who did not qualify for the playoffs the year before play one another in the state final and it has been a while... 1989 and 1998 so the odds are not in favor of two teams facing off that did not qualify last season.
There have been ten teams that made it no further than the regionals or "Sweet 16" as we will call it and ten teams that made it no further than the region finals or "Elite 8" as we will call it in this case.
So now we must look at how the team that finished runner-up in the finals fared the year before.
8 teams that finished runner-up failed to make the playoffs the year before.
6 teams that finished runner-up came out of the "Sweet 16" group.
And in most cases the team that finished runner-up had 8 or 10 wins the previous year, this has occurred 22 of the 29 times.
So that means that the team that will finish 2nd in 3A this year if the law of averages holds up would be Northside who had 8 wins in the regular season last year and lost in the regionals or "Sweet 16" as I'm calling it...
Now who do they lose to?
6 times the champion did not qualify for the playoffs the year before but the champion has averaged 10 wins a season 7 times so that rules out the DNQ. Not to mention only 3 times in the last 18 seasons has a champion finished the regular season undefeated so odds are not in favor of that either. Now 5 times, there has been a champion that lost in the "Elite 8" or region finals the year before. Now 6 times the champion averaged 9 wins in the regular season the year before and it has happened 4 times in the last 8 seasons.
So what does that mean? That means Abingdon is the odds on favorite to win it all...
So your 3A Final should be Abingdon over Northside in 2016.
***remember this is all in good fun, averages, trends, odds are all meant to be broken***
Of those 58 teams, 14 did not qualify for the playoffs the year before.
That said, only twice have two teams who did not qualify for the playoffs the year before play one another in the state final and it has been a while... 1989 and 1998 so the odds are not in favor of two teams facing off that did not qualify last season.
There have been ten teams that made it no further than the regionals or "Sweet 16" as we will call it and ten teams that made it no further than the region finals or "Elite 8" as we will call it in this case.
So now we must look at how the team that finished runner-up in the finals fared the year before.
8 teams that finished runner-up failed to make the playoffs the year before.
6 teams that finished runner-up came out of the "Sweet 16" group.
And in most cases the team that finished runner-up had 8 or 10 wins the previous year, this has occurred 22 of the 29 times.
So that means that the team that will finish 2nd in 3A this year if the law of averages holds up would be Northside who had 8 wins in the regular season last year and lost in the regionals or "Sweet 16" as I'm calling it...
Now who do they lose to?
6 times the champion did not qualify for the playoffs the year before but the champion has averaged 10 wins a season 7 times so that rules out the DNQ. Not to mention only 3 times in the last 18 seasons has a champion finished the regular season undefeated so odds are not in favor of that either. Now 5 times, there has been a champion that lost in the "Elite 8" or region finals the year before. Now 6 times the champion averaged 9 wins in the regular season the year before and it has happened 4 times in the last 8 seasons.
So what does that mean? That means Abingdon is the odds on favorite to win it all...
So your 3A Final should be Abingdon over Northside in 2016.
***remember this is all in good fun, averages, trends, odds are all meant to be broken***
