I sometimes like to use history and trends to get an idea of what is to come. Since we have a few more months before actual games and since we are all itching for football, let's see if we cannot forecast who will win the 5A title this season?
For starters we know that since 1987 58 teams have faced off to win a state title
14 of those teams reached no further than the region finals or "Elite 8" as I will call it in this case the year before.
12 of those teams did not even make the playoffs the year before.
Only twice in 29 meetings have two teams that lost in the region finals or "Elite 8" met in the title game. Odds are not good.
Now here's the thing... We cannot use the 12 teams that did not make the playoffs as a basis for comparison as 35 of the 58 teams averaged 9 or 10 wins the year before in the regular season and I think we can all agree a 9 or 10 win team did not miss the playoffs last season.
So we look to the next one which would be regionals or "Sweet 16" and state semifinals or "Final 4" which has had nine teams each that lost the year before go on and make the finals the next year.
So we know the championship participants are are teams that lost in either the "Final 4", "Elite 8" or "Sweet 16".
11 times the runner-up in the finals failed to reach the playoffs the year before but we can rule that out from happening. So then we look to those who lost in the regionals or "Sweet 16" as that has happened six times and 11 times the runner-up won 9 games the previous season.
That said, there are no times that won 9 games in the regular season who lost in the Sweet 16 or regionals...
LC Bird won 10 games, Lee-Davis and Brooke Point won 8 and the past two seasons the runner-up went 8-2 in the regular season so odds are favorable that Lee-Davis or Brooke Point will be the 5A runner-up as only twice has a 10-0 team finished runner-up.
So we know it will be Lee-Davis or Brooke Point who falls in the finals, who do they fall to?
It's going to be Massaponax Hermitage or Hampton...
11 champions lost in the region finals or "Elite 8" the previous year and 17 champions went 10-0 in the regular season the year before winning it all.
Now Lee-Davis and Hermitage would face off in the playoffs before reaching the finals and they would also face off against Hampton to get there... So your 5A Final will be a variation of this:
Massaponax over Lee-Davis
Hampton or Hermitage over Brooke Point
For starters we know that since 1987 58 teams have faced off to win a state title
14 of those teams reached no further than the region finals or "Elite 8" as I will call it in this case the year before.
12 of those teams did not even make the playoffs the year before.
Only twice in 29 meetings have two teams that lost in the region finals or "Elite 8" met in the title game. Odds are not good.
Now here's the thing... We cannot use the 12 teams that did not make the playoffs as a basis for comparison as 35 of the 58 teams averaged 9 or 10 wins the year before in the regular season and I think we can all agree a 9 or 10 win team did not miss the playoffs last season.
So we look to the next one which would be regionals or "Sweet 16" and state semifinals or "Final 4" which has had nine teams each that lost the year before go on and make the finals the next year.
So we know the championship participants are are teams that lost in either the "Final 4", "Elite 8" or "Sweet 16".
11 times the runner-up in the finals failed to reach the playoffs the year before but we can rule that out from happening. So then we look to those who lost in the regionals or "Sweet 16" as that has happened six times and 11 times the runner-up won 9 games the previous season.
That said, there are no times that won 9 games in the regular season who lost in the Sweet 16 or regionals...
LC Bird won 10 games, Lee-Davis and Brooke Point won 8 and the past two seasons the runner-up went 8-2 in the regular season so odds are favorable that Lee-Davis or Brooke Point will be the 5A runner-up as only twice has a 10-0 team finished runner-up.
So we know it will be Lee-Davis or Brooke Point who falls in the finals, who do they fall to?
It's going to be Massaponax Hermitage or Hampton...
11 champions lost in the region finals or "Elite 8" the previous year and 17 champions went 10-0 in the regular season the year before winning it all.
Now Lee-Davis and Hermitage would face off in the playoffs before reaching the finals and they would also face off against Hampton to get there... So your 5A Final will be a variation of this:
Massaponax over Lee-Davis
Hampton or Hermitage over Brooke Point
