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Pick the two teams in 4A finals...

From West One Of These 4: Versus One Of These 2 From The East:

Woodgrove ....... Dinwiddie
Salem ........ Lake Taylor
Amhesrt
Wm. Byrd

Or none of the above:)
 
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I'm changing my picks to Woodgrove vs Dinwiddie.... My sleeper pick for the finals is Dominion
 
I could see how that could change people's picks though.


With Ramsey - I would take Salem over Woodgrove. Ofcourse I have not seen Salem or Amherst play - but I'm giving Salem the nod over Amherst based on their tradition of excelling in crunch time. Based on what I've about Amherst though - it would not surprise me if they are there at the end of the day.

I'm also interested to see how Byrd and Dominion fair in the playoffs this year - the proverbial new kids on the block who seem to be legit contenders.

There is also Millbrook - I don't think they will make a deep run but have some tools at their disposal to give teams some trouble.

I think overall this year 4A West is wide open with a lot of teams in the mix - unlike in the past few years where we kind of knew the 2 or 3 teams who were better than the rest. It should be fun to watch some of these match ups play out in every round of the playoffs
 
I've watched Salem a couple of times thanks to the game day network and I've talked to quite of few people who've seen Salem and said that their o and d lines is just not physical enough. A lot like what I saw from Woodgrove last year. IMO, Amherst has some of the most aggressive players I've seen out West. They're comparable to Lake Taylor. They have athletes, strong, college sized, and very aggressive. I think this is enough to come out of the West. If they can control their emotions and play like they played against Rustburg in the second half, I'd go as far to say that they will win it all. I'd be scared of one of those slow starts. Started slow against Salem, started slow against Heritage and Rustburg. Can't do that in the playoffs! The playoffs goes through Purcellville, but I have my money on the Amherst Lancers. Haven't seen LT play this year, but I'd say Amherst, Lake Taylor, and Dinwiddie are the most complete teams in 4a.
 
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Semis:
Woodgrove v Salem
Dinwiddie v Lake Taylor

Finals:
Dinwiddie v Woodgrove

JHHSPRIDE, I like the idea, but based on the current seedings the Lake Taylor vs. Dinwiddie match up would occur in the quarters. I personally dont like Dinwiddies possible draw, but it is what it is. If we win in the first round, our second round opponent would be the louisa/monacan winner and if we win that game we would cross bracket with Lake Taylor/? winner. Assuming Lake Taylor crossbrackets Louisa, Monacan or Dinwiddie will have quite a chore to just get a shot at Lafayette, Chancellor, Eastern View or whoever in the east final. Going to be interesting.
 
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LOL Look for my name on the ballot in 2028 ;)
If you get Frank Bartles and Ed Jaymes to promote you, I'm voting for you too!
bartles_and_jaymes.jpg
 
JHHSPRIDE, I like the idea, but based on the current seedings the Lake Taylor vs. Dinwiddie match up would occur in the quarters. I personally dont like Dinwiddies possible draw, but it is what it is. If we win in the first round, our second round opponent would be the louisa/monacan winner and if we win that game we would cross bracket with Lake Taylor/? winner. Assuming Lake Taylor crossbrackets Louisa, Monacan or Dinwiddie will have quite a chore to just get a shot at Lafayette, Chancellor, Eastern View or whoever in the east final. Going to be interesting.
Going to be tough sledding navigating through the East playoffs for whoever. The East winner will be battle tested.
 
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Going to be tough sledding navigating through the East playoffs for whoever. The East winner will be battle tested.
You know it Devils. Silimar to 2014 for you guys. The possible Monacan vs. Louisa matchup will be a war. Maybe, we can hook up and break the tie. If we win this weekend and advance to play you down the road, we will make sure the field is good and muddy. Lol...
 
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I've already got my disc hooked to my tractor, Navy. Sprayed Roundup last week. And found a high pressure booster pump for the irrigation system. Can you say "swamp"!
 
I've watched Salem a couple of times thanks to the game day network and I've talked to quite of few people who've seen Salem and said that their o and d lines is just not physical enough. A lot like what I saw from Woodgrove last year. IMO, Amherst has some of the most aggressive players I've seen out West. They're comparable to Lake Taylor. They have athletes, strong, college sized, and very aggressive. I think this is enough to come out of the West. If they can control their emotions and play like they played against Rustburg in the second half, I'd go as far to say that they will win it all. I'd be scared of one of those slow starts. Started slow against Salem, started slow against Heritage and Rustburg. Can't do that in the playoffs! The playoffs goes through Purcellville, but I have my money on the Amherst Lancers. Haven't seen LT play this year, but I'd say Amherst, Lake Taylor, and Dinwiddie are the most complete teams in 4a.
That is definitely a weakness for the Spartans. They will be getting back the 300 pound offensive tackle Mundy (started at center last year as a sophomore) very soon. He has missed the entire season so far but might make a difference up front.
 
You know it Devils. Silimar to 2014 for you guys. The possible Monacan vs. Louisa matchup will be a war. Maybe, we can hook up and break the tie. If we win this weekend and advance to play you down the road, we will make sure the field is good and muddy. Lol...
I think in that 4-5 game it's going to be Monacan vs. Chancellor..That will be interesting..I don't want any parts of your field and rain. I'll pass
 
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JHHSPRIDE, I like the idea, but based on the current seedings the Lake Taylor vs. Dinwiddie match up would occur in the quarters. I personally dont like Dinwiddies possible draw, but it is what it is. If we win in the first round, our second round opponent would be the louisa/monacan winner and if we win that game we would cross bracket with Lake Taylor/? winner. Assuming Lake Taylor crossbrackets Louisa, Monacan or Dinwiddie will have quite a chore to just get a shot at Lafayette, Chancellor, Eastern View or whoever in the east final. Going to be interesting.

That bracket with Dinwiddie and Lake Taylor is loaded - you have two of the best teams (maybe THE two best) meeting in the quarters. I have only seen Dinwiddie and Lake Taylor play a few times apiece over the last few years - but have come away impressed with each team's combination of athleticism and discipline on both sides of the ball. A lot of people in the west focus on all of the athletes the teams in the east possess - but I have always been impressed with the coaching of those two squads in particular.

Over in the west - I have not seen Salem - my pick was based on their recent playoff history but if they struggle in the trenches as some have suggested they will struggle to get to the end. I have seen Woodgrove and must mention they are not HUGE up front like the last few years - but they are very well coached and play hard snap to whistle and are sound fundamentally. Woodgrove's qb is special - the kid makes plays with his arm and feet and is the type of kid you want with the ball in his hands. I'd love to see Amherst - a lot of people have been talking them up and they seem primed for a run. Have not seen Byrd play - but if they are one dimensional it will be tough to get through the playoffs unless they are truly that good at what they do. I think of JF the last few years in the west - great teams the last two years but relied too much on one thing. It will be fun to watch the match ups play out over the next few weeks!
 
I always forget about the VHSL simulator Tom posted about. For the record, out of 10 simulations of Louisa at Dinwiddie, Dinwiddie wins most times by a largest margin of 14 points. Louisa also won one by 14. Most of the margins of victory were 2 or 3 points, and there was also a tie. Dinwiddie is favored to win 60% of the time. I did the same thing with Lake Taylor at Louisa, and Louisa won literally every time, one by a score of 32-13, another 32-10. Louisa is favored 62% of the time. Monacan beat Louisa once out of 10. Louisa at Eastern View was about 50/50. Then I did last year's Hanover vs. last year's Louisa, and Hanover won every time by close to the real-life score. Pretty interesting.
 
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I always forget about the VHSL simulator Tom posted about. For the record, out of 10 simulations of Louisa at Dinwiddie, Dinwiddie wins most times by a largest margin of 14 points. Louisa also won one by 14. Most of the margins of victory were 2 or 3 points, and there was also a tie. Dinwiddie is favored to win 60% of the time. I did the same thing with Lake Taylor at Louisa, and Louisa won literally every time, one by a score of 32-13, another 32-10. Louisa is favored 62% of the time. Monacan beat Louisa once out of 10. Then I did last year's Hanover vs. last year's Louisa, and Hanover won every time by close to the real-life score. Pretty interesting.

With all due respect to the simulators - and I know you are not basing your opinion of the outcome of the game on them - they can't take into account the speed and physicality that teams like Dinwiddie and Lake Taylor bring to field on Friday night. Those two things to me will be the deciding factors in the east. I have not mentioned Monacan because I have never seen them play ever - they very well could fall into that category. That being said - I know Louisa brings physicality and decent overall team speed to the table and are a very talented football team. We will find out soon enough if Louisa is on par with those perennial powers - I hope they are because I love seeing great football and plan on making a trip down to a playoff game in that pod.

A lot of times what it comes down to in the playoffs is who has the "weakest links". Every year really good teams enter the playoffs with a few guys here or there on either side of the ball that are their "weak links". The great teams - the state championship caliber teams usually are solid across the board and have great coaching staffs who identify those weak links in the opposition and exploit those spots. Every knowledgable fan recognizes their teams deficiencies along with their strengths - and hope their strengths can over compensate for their deficiencies. And if you are a fan of a team and haven't noticed any deficiencies at this point in the season - you should feel great about your chances to advance.
 
If this were last year, or 2013, I would agree with you @JHHSPRIDE1. But this year, Dinwiddie is more finesse than physical than the 2013 team, and Lake Taylor isn't quite as physical/potent as last year (from what Devils told me). Both teams have more overall defensive team speed than say Sherando, but to give just one example of an offensive skill player, Sherando RB TJ Washington's speed rivals anyone's speed on offense in the East. I just use Sherando as an example since we both have seen them this year. I think good blocking and physicality can negate speed a little, though. I think the fastest players I've seen in the East, just from highlights, are Monacan's QB Fludd and Dinwiddie's WR/RB Freeland. No one in the East has a player on defense who seems to be in on every play like Dylan Rivers, but #22 of LT is very good. Dinwiddie's defensive line is quick and will give anyone problems.
 
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If this were last year, or 2013, I would agree with you @JHHSPRIDE1. But this year, Dinwiddie is more finesse than physical than the 2013 team, and Lake Taylor isn't quite as physical/potent as last year (from what Devils told me). Both teams have more overall defensive team speed than say Sherando, but to give just one example of an offensive skill player, Sherando RB TJ Washington's speed rivals anyone's speed on offense in the East. I just use Sherando as an example since we both have seen them this year. I think good blocking and physicality can negate speed a little, though. I think the fastest players I've seen in the East, just from highlights, are Monacan's QB Fludd and Dinwiddie's WR/RB Freeland. No one in the East has a player on defense who seems to be in on every play like Dylan Rivers, but #22 of LT is very good. Dinwiddie's defensive line is quick and will give anyone problems.


For Monacan it is more about overall team speed. We have 4-5 kids on either side of the ball that can really run. Korey Bridy is our fastest player I would say, who is the area's TD leader with 28 Td's. Now is our faster player faster then X teams faster player? IDK. I don't think we have anyone that has SUPER speed on our team. I can tell you that not too many kids in the state are going to be able to catch him from behind. But I don't think we have a Percy Harvin type of speed guy. I think Dinwiddie is sort of the same. LT always has plenty of athletes. I think all of those teams all have several players you don't want to have the ball in the open field. When you have several guys that can go the distance at any given moment its a good thing. We are more of a sum of our collective parts.

As for the machine picker... Its interesting to look at but I don't put a lot of stock in that.
 
I always forget about the VHSL simulator Tom posted about. For the record, out of 10 simulations of Louisa at Dinwiddie, Dinwiddie wins most times by a largest margin of 14 points. Louisa also won one by 14. Most of the margins of victory were 2 or 3 points, and there was also a tie. Dinwiddie is favored to win 60% of the time. I did the same thing with Lake Taylor at Louisa, and Louisa won literally every time, one by a score of 32-13, another 32-10. Louisa is favored 62% of the time. Monacan beat Louisa once out of 10. Louisa at Eastern View was about 50/50. Then I did last year's Hanover vs. last year's Louisa, and Hanover won every time by close to the real-life score. Pretty interesting.

*sigh* and some of the outcomes of the game tonight say Louisa 50-0 :-(
 
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