Region 4C Standings (est.) & Week 9 games

[Shruikan]

Note: These numbers are NOT official. I did some quick math based off the formula in the sticky'd thread. It's very likely that some of these are incorrect, but they should be close enough to give a general idea of where teams stand.

Still in the Hunt
1. Loudoun County - 27.0
2. Kettle Run - 26.25
3. Sherando - 26.0
4. Woodgrove - 25.5
5. Riverside - 24.75
6. Liberty - 23.14
------------------------
7. Millbrook - 22.875
8. Handley - 22.375
9. Dominion - 21.286
10. Heritage - 20.25

Week 9 Games
Loudoun County (6-0) at Dominion (3-4)
Kettle Run (7-1) at Liberty (4-3)
Sherando (6-1) vs. Handley (5-3)
Woodgrove (4-2) vs. Heritage (5-3)
Riverside (6-2) at Loudoun Valley (0-6)
Millbrook - BYE
James Wood (2-5) vs. Fauquier (0-7)

Loudoun County (6-0) at Dominion (3-4)
This is a trap game for the Raiders. Dominion absolutely needs this win to even have a chance of making the playoffs. Two of their losses have come against 6A South Lakes and 5A Potomac Falls, and Loudoun County struggled against winless Loudoun Valley last weekend, scoring only 28 points (but holding the Vikings scoreless). Loudoun County should win this game handily, but I expect Dominion to put up a fight.

Loudoun County - 35
Dominion - 21

Kettle Run (7-1) at Liberty (4-3)
According to my calculations Liberty currently has enough points to sneak into the playoffs. However, a loss to Kettle Run would definitely knock them down a few pegs. Last year's regular season game between these two ended in controversy and then Liberty went on to win in the playoffs 45-14. Though I expect Kettle Run has had this game circled for a while, Liberty needs this win to have a shot. The Eagles have been improving in recent weeks.

Kettle Run - 28
Liberty - 24

Sherando (6-1) vs. Handley (5-3)
Despite looking banged up at times against Kettle Run, the Warriors managed to end the Cougar's undefeated season. They'll need to be on the top of their game to face a different kind of team in Handley this weekend, which has played in close games all year and has a number of playmakers. Sherando hasn't had trouble overruling the Judges in recent years but I expect Handley to be in this one for a while.

Sherando - 42
Handley - 21

Woodgrove (4-2) vs. Heritage (5-3)
Heritage had some hype at the beginning of the year and has since faded a bit. Woodgrove on the other hand is hitting its stride at the right time. Just looking at the records one might expect this to be a close game, but I don't think the Pride will hold up against an increasingly dangerous Woodgrove team.

Woodgrove - 49
Heritage - 14

Riverside (6-2) at Loudoun Valley (0-6)
After a season saving win against Heritage last weekend, Riverside gets a seemingly softer opponent in winless Loudoun Valley. The Vikings may have found something on defense given how they held Loudoun County to 28 points, but they'll need to show more on offense to pull the upset.

Riverside - 35
Loudoun Valley - 17

James Wood (2-5) vs. Fauquier (0-7)
This is Fauquier's best chance for a win this year. They put up 23 points against Courtland last weekend, so the Falcons might be on the upswing. James Wood fell to Millbrook but also managed to put up 32 points.

James Wood - 21
Fauquier - 28

 

[Tom Potter]

Woodgrove's confidence grows each week. We had some big game jitters for the Massaponax & Broad Run games but the lads are beginning to execute on both sides of the ball and they have reduced the turnovers and stupid, undisciplined penalties.

I think Valley beats Riverside @ home Friday night. Valley had a brutal schedule early in the season but has a lot of pride and they will start wininng some games I am thinking. I do not know how healthy Valley is at the moment and we are entering the home stretch of the season where you have to be healthy to make a playoff run.

I did notice a lot of walking wounded on the Riverside sidelines as well as the Dominion sidelines the last two weeks.

Unfortunately Woodgrove injured the starting Dominion QB last Friday night and Dominion had at least 6 kids going both ways. I will be interested in this County vs. Dominion score Friday night!

Woodgrove lost to Heritage & County last year so the lads will be looking for some payback the next two weeks at our our house.

 

[Smallfry2015]

Sherando will give up 21 to Handley ? And only 14 to Kettle Run last week? I am thinking with a score closer to 56-7 at Sherando with them being at home according to the schedule on VHSL.

 

[WarrentonCougar21]

I love these weekly updates. Thanks for putting the commentary together for 4c.

We have the Big Fauquier County rivalry game this week with KRHS @ Liberty. I just hope that KR keeps their focus on improving every week and not let Liberty creep into this game to start thinking of an upset.

 

[BigBWincCity]

I love these weekly updates. Thanks for putting the commentary together for 4c.

We have the Big Fauquier County rivalry game this week with KRHS @ Liberty. I just hope that KR keeps their focus on improving every week and not let Liberty creep into this game to start thinking of an upset.

What is your prediction for the game? I think Kettle Run will get the job done, Liberty isn’t like they were last year and KR is much better

 

[Shruikan]

Sherando will give up 21 to Handley ? And only 14 to Kettle Run last week? I am thinking with a score closer to 56-7 at Sherando with them being at home according to the schedule on VHSL.

Kettle Run was able to move the ball well at times against Sherando and Handley has good players in areas that Martinsburg and Kettle Run were able to exploit (namely Curry). It could be a blowout, but outside of the last couple years the Handley/Sherando contest has almost always been close. Handley winning would be a major upset though, you're right.

I love these weekly updates. Thanks for putting the commentary together for 4c.

We have the Big Fauquier County rivalry game this week with KRHS @ Liberty. I just hope that KR keeps their focus on improving every week and not let Liberty creep into this game to start thinking of an upset.

No problem!

Liberty's QB has some serious skill. If his receivers could hold onto the ball, he could've led them to more wins this year for sure. They had so many drops in the game against us. Kettle Run definitely can't come out sleeping, but I doubt it'll be hard for your coach to get the guys into the right mindset against a huge rival.

 

[Smallfry2015]

Kettle Run was able to move the ball well at times against Sherando and Handley has good players in areas that Martinsburg and Kettle Run were able to exploit (namely Curry). It could be a blowout, but outside of the last couple years the Handley/Sherando contest has almost always been close. Handley winning would be a major upset though, you're right.



No problem!

Liberty's QB has some serious skill. If his receivers could hold onto the ball, he could've led them to more wins this year for sure. They had so many drops in the game against us. Kettle Run definitely can't come out sleeping, but I doubt it'll be hard for your coach to get the guys into the right mindset against a huge rival.

Sherando held Kettle Run to 78 total yards rushing , and out gained them nearly 3 to 2. Not including special teams and defensive scores . All the while being very banged up from the week before. From the film , it appeared the Sherando QB mobility was limited , not his usual self .I came away very impressed with Sherando this year so far , especially since they had a big game

Kettle Run was able to move the ball well at times against Sherando and Handley has good players in areas that Martinsburg and Kettle Run were able to exploit (namely Curry). It could be a blowout, but outside of the last couple years the Handley/Sherando contest has almost always been close. Handley winning would be a major upset though, you're right.



No problem!

Liberty's QB has some serious skill. If his receivers could hold onto the ball, he could've led them to more wins this year for sure. They had so many drops in the game against us. Kettle Run definitely can't come out sleeping, but I doubt it'll be hard for your coach to get the guys into the right mindset against a huge rival.

according to VHSL reference Sherando has outscored Handley about 300 to 50 in the last 7 years . Not sure how close that is , but I will take your word for it since you are the Sherando guys. Maybe a Handley pulls out the win!

 

[WarrentonCougar21]

What is your prediction for the game? I think Kettle Run will get the job done, Liberty isn’t like they were last year and KR is much better

I would Hope the score would be something like 35-14.

Our defensive line seems to be a big problem for offenses. No superstars, just big solid athletes with great feet to control the line of scrimmage. If Liberty has to start throwing the ball early, and D line gets good penetration with the backers blitzing, it could be a long night for the Eagles.

 

[Shruikan]

Sherando held Kettle Run to 78 total yards rushing , and out gained them nearly 3 to 2. Not including special teams and defensive scores . All the while being very banged up from the week before. From the film , it appeared the Sherando QB mobility was limited , not his usual self .I came away very impressed with Sherando this year so far , especially since they had a big game

according to VHSL reference Sherando has outscored Handley about 300 to 50 in the last 7 years . Not sure how close that is , but I will take your word for it since you are the Sherando guys. Maybe a Handley pulls out the win!

Oh wow, it's been longer than I thought. Sherando leads the series 13-11, but up until 2010 Handley led the series 11-6.

Compared to the other local rivalries the Handley series is by far the closest:
Sherando leads James Wood 27-2 (though 12 of those were within 10 points).
Sherando leads Millbrook 13-3.

 

[silky45]

Millbrook on a bye this week. Kettle Run Beats Liberty Friday openithe door for Millbrook. Millbrook has all they weapons now . Don’t think Liberty has has enough. The word on the street Jackson 1 may or may not play

 

[Shruikan]

Millbrook on a bye this week. Kettle Run Beats Liberty Friday openithe door for Millbrook. Millbrook has all they weapons now . Don’t think Liberty has has enough. The word on the street Jackson 1 may or may not play

Yup, Millbrook fans should be rooting hard for Kettle Run this weekend. A Liberty win would definitely hurt Millbrook's playoff chances, but it wouldn't eliminate them by any means. Even if the Eagles pull the upset, Millbrook still has a shot at home against Liberty next weekend.