As mentioned earlier in the week, we have now reached the halfway point of the district schedule and Friday night's games will mark what we call the start of the second cycle. Prior to Tuesday night's games, it looked as if we were going to have a straight up and down hierarchy at the midway point....Stuarts Draft was going to be 5-0, Gap was going to be next at 4-1, followed by Staunton at 3-2, Wilson at 2-3, Riverheads at 1-4, and Fort in the basement at 0-5.
However, the Indians upset that particular apple cart with their somewhat surprising win over Buffalo Gap, so you can modify those numbers accordingly and see that SD now has a two-game lead over both Staunton and BG, and Fort is now tied with RHS for fifth or for the basement, depending on how you look at it.
In my opinion, and you know I am "never" wrong (!), the scheduling thus far has had a little bit to do with the way things have gone and therefore I anticipate the second half scheduling to have some impact of its own. I am referring of course to who has had how many home games.
For example, look at Staunton. By the luck of the draw, they have played four of their five district games on the road, which means they will get SD, BG, RHS and Fort all at home, and their only road trip will be to Wilson, a team they just thrashed by more than 30. Needless to say, you can expect the Storm to stay near the top of the standings and if they had not stumbled at BG a few weeks ago, they might be the best bet to win the regular season.
Conversely, Wilson is a mediocre 2-3 in the district but yet have played four of their five district games in the cozy confines of the Hive. As a result, they will be facing trips to RHS, SD, BG and Fort, along with the just-mentioned home date with Staunton. Therefore I for one expect to see the green team drop in the standings, and finishing 3-7 might be about the best they can hope for.
SD of course benefited the most from the Fort win over BG and for that reason the Cougars should stay on track to win the district. Of course this is a good time to point out that there really IS no district title..... or post-season tournament. It is all about bragging rights and we only follow it because the media does.
The Storm and the Bison should manage to round out the top three unless one or the other completely collapses, leaving the remaining question to be "can Riverheads or Fort kick it into high gear and cause any significant disturbance?"
If the Indians are that team, then it will be a heck of a coaching job up there. With home games remaining against RHS and Wilson, they might still win one or two more for the sake of pride, but I don't see a major jump from where they are now.
As for my Gladiators, and of course you guys know I am biased, I think their story is one of close but no cigar. Yes, SD whomped us pretty good on Tuesday, but news flash.....they are going to do that to everybody most nights out. So the key to Riverheads' success down the stretch will depend on whether they can turn their three down-to-the-wire 3-point losses into victories this time around. They will also need to avoid a potential trap game at Fort next week, and then maybe, just maybe, they can put it all together on Senior Night against the Cougars. So I definitely expect a more successful second trip through the district, but just "how" successful remains to be seen. A 4-6 mark seems very reachable, 5-5 would be nice, and hey, if they want to run the table and finish 6-4 in the district, I won't be mad at 'em!
So for any or all of the above to happen, we have to take the first step with this Friday's slate of games. With that in mind, here we go..........
Buffalo Gap at Stuarts Draft: I have observed over the years that most teams get overwhelmed the first time they play the Cougars but can then make better adjustments the second time around, simply because they know what is coming. So even though the Cougars routed the Gap by 21 on their own floor, expect a closer game this time around. SD will still win but it will be by single digits in an 80s to 90s game.
Wilson at Riverheads: If my Big Red is really going to fulfill the above prophecy, they HAVE to start with this one. The first time around, the Gladiators quite frankly slept through most of the first half, but then made a game out of it before falling in overtime. I expect no such game this time. The Big Red will take immediate control of this one, stay on track, and win by anywhere from 12-15.
Fort Defiance at Staunton: No reason to expect this one to be anything especially competitive. Staunton should win by 20-25.
However, the Indians upset that particular apple cart with their somewhat surprising win over Buffalo Gap, so you can modify those numbers accordingly and see that SD now has a two-game lead over both Staunton and BG, and Fort is now tied with RHS for fifth or for the basement, depending on how you look at it.
In my opinion, and you know I am "never" wrong (!), the scheduling thus far has had a little bit to do with the way things have gone and therefore I anticipate the second half scheduling to have some impact of its own. I am referring of course to who has had how many home games.
For example, look at Staunton. By the luck of the draw, they have played four of their five district games on the road, which means they will get SD, BG, RHS and Fort all at home, and their only road trip will be to Wilson, a team they just thrashed by more than 30. Needless to say, you can expect the Storm to stay near the top of the standings and if they had not stumbled at BG a few weeks ago, they might be the best bet to win the regular season.
Conversely, Wilson is a mediocre 2-3 in the district but yet have played four of their five district games in the cozy confines of the Hive. As a result, they will be facing trips to RHS, SD, BG and Fort, along with the just-mentioned home date with Staunton. Therefore I for one expect to see the green team drop in the standings, and finishing 3-7 might be about the best they can hope for.
SD of course benefited the most from the Fort win over BG and for that reason the Cougars should stay on track to win the district. Of course this is a good time to point out that there really IS no district title..... or post-season tournament. It is all about bragging rights and we only follow it because the media does.
The Storm and the Bison should manage to round out the top three unless one or the other completely collapses, leaving the remaining question to be "can Riverheads or Fort kick it into high gear and cause any significant disturbance?"
If the Indians are that team, then it will be a heck of a coaching job up there. With home games remaining against RHS and Wilson, they might still win one or two more for the sake of pride, but I don't see a major jump from where they are now.
As for my Gladiators, and of course you guys know I am biased, I think their story is one of close but no cigar. Yes, SD whomped us pretty good on Tuesday, but news flash.....they are going to do that to everybody most nights out. So the key to Riverheads' success down the stretch will depend on whether they can turn their three down-to-the-wire 3-point losses into victories this time around. They will also need to avoid a potential trap game at Fort next week, and then maybe, just maybe, they can put it all together on Senior Night against the Cougars. So I definitely expect a more successful second trip through the district, but just "how" successful remains to be seen. A 4-6 mark seems very reachable, 5-5 would be nice, and hey, if they want to run the table and finish 6-4 in the district, I won't be mad at 'em!
So for any or all of the above to happen, we have to take the first step with this Friday's slate of games. With that in mind, here we go..........
Buffalo Gap at Stuarts Draft: I have observed over the years that most teams get overwhelmed the first time they play the Cougars but can then make better adjustments the second time around, simply because they know what is coming. So even though the Cougars routed the Gap by 21 on their own floor, expect a closer game this time around. SD will still win but it will be by single digits in an 80s to 90s game.
Wilson at Riverheads: If my Big Red is really going to fulfill the above prophecy, they HAVE to start with this one. The first time around, the Gladiators quite frankly slept through most of the first half, but then made a game out of it before falling in overtime. I expect no such game this time. The Big Red will take immediate control of this one, stay on track, and win by anywhere from 12-15.
Fort Defiance at Staunton: No reason to expect this one to be anything especially competitive. Staunton should win by 20-25.
