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Starting off looks TOUGH!

springer76

VaPreps All District
Nov 21, 2008
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Highland Springs, VA
Just looking at some schedules.
MBK always starts their season with the toughest OPENING BUT, looking at Hermitage's opening, I don't know who's is tougher!
Herm starts at home wit HSHS then @ Henrico, @ Thomas Dale and @ Varina.
Could they be 4-0 or 0-4 to start?
 
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Just looking at some schedules.
MBK always starts their season with the toughest OPENING BUT, looking at Hermitage's opening, I don't know who's is tougher!
Herm starts at home wit HSHS then @ Henrico, @ Thomas Dale and @ Varina.
Could they be 4-0 or 0-4 to start?

Consider the fact that HSHS is the leading candidate to win it all again this year... Henrico is a sleeper threat in the region given all they have added... Thomas Dale is a threat in 6 if they can get past Manchester and I hear Varina while they lost a few are primed for another solid year... yeah, Hermitage is going to find a tough road ahead with what they lost to graduation, transfers and of course Coach Kane leaving the program. 0-4 is not out of the question but I gotta believe they sneak in a win along there somewhere... If they don't, it won't get any easier because they still have to face Manchester in the finale plus Deep Run could give them a game this year.
 
I am telling you I really think Glenn Allen is going to have a good team this year. Nothing to do with this thread really just thought I’d chime in. They might win 7-8 games this year.

@CRF4Dan Yeah I don’t know if Hermitage will find a win or not in the first 4 games. I lean towards no. Maybe Varina but IDTS... I don’t think Hermitage will be as down as everyone thinks but still, that schedule is murderers row!
 
I am telling you I really think Glenn Allen is going to have a good team this year. Nothing to do with this thread really just thought I’d chime in. They might win 7-8 games this year.

@CRF4Dan Yeah I don’t know if Hermitage will find a win or not in the first 4 games. I lean towards no. Maybe Varina but IDTS... I don’t think Hermitage will be as down as everyone thinks but still, that schedule is murderers row!

I'm a little confused in the fact you say you don't think Herm will be as down as everyone thinks but you also don't see them winning the first 4 games. That would be 0-4 at that point with Deep Run and Manchester still to go. Even at 6-4 or 5-5 that is a significant drop off from a team that is accustomed to 9+ wins a year this century. That is more of a down year than LC Bird last year after Bedwell left...

Glen Allen is due to have that breakthrough year. They have a talented running back and this will be Camps third year at the helm of the Jaguars. I don't know if 7-8 wins is in the cards but I could see them getting to 5 or 6. They had four games decided by a touchdown or less... 4 of those games came in the last 5 games of the season. Easily could have been 6-4 as opposed to 2-8.
 
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I've got to agree with Danny. I said months ago that Hermitage would be 5-5. And I'll downgrade that now to 4-6. If Hermitage finishes better than 5-5, I'll wear a Life Christian Acadamy hat for a game during the playoffs. (monape1 will be paying off officials now so that he can see me wear that hat!)
 
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I've got to agree with Danny. I said months ago that Hermitage would be 5-5. And I'll downgrade that now to 4-6. If Hermitage finishes better than 5-5, I'll wear a Life Christian Acadamy hat for a game during the playoffs. (monape1 will be paying off officials now so that he can see me wear that hat!)

You've been calling it since Herm hired Coach Johnson that they would struggle mightily this year. Clock is about to start ticking.
 
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I'm a little confused in the fact you say you don't think Herm will be as down as everyone thinks but you also don't see them winning the first 4 games. That would be 0-4 at that point with Deep Run and Manchester still to go. Even at 6-4 or 5-5 that is a significant drop off from a team that is accustomed to 9+ wins a year this century. That is more of a down year than LC Bird last year after Bedwell left...

Glen Allen is due to have that breakthrough year. They have a talented running back and this will be Camps third year at the helm of the Jaguars. I don't know if 7-8 wins is in the cards but I could see them getting to 5 or 6. They had four games decided by a touchdown or less... 4 of those games came in the last 5 games of the season. Easily could have been 6-4 as opposed to 2-8.

Well I think that Hermitage has a tougher schedule than Bird by 2 games. If Bird would have played Hermitage schedule would they have been 6-4 or even 5-5 last year? If that would have happened Bird May have been the best 5-5 team ever fielded bc I still think they had a pretty good football team. IDK either way just food for thought.

What I am saying this could very well happen to Hermitage.... they could end up being the best 6-4 to 5-5 football team in the state. Which would be way down for Hermitage but could still be a tough out even for a quality team. They may sneak an extra one somewhere and hit 7 wins. I still think they have some quality ball players over there. If I was a betting man I would have them losing all of the first 4 though. They may lose to a 10-0 Manchester, an 10-0 HSHS, a 9-1 Henrico, and an 8-2 Varina and a 10-0 TD and be 5-5. Can you imagine that?!!

I guess I am not as sold on Deep Run as you are quite yet. I know their QB is a good tough runner. Glenn Allen has 4 good recievers, that TB who is a dump truck plus a dual threat qb with a nice throwing touch.
 
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Hey Bonape, I did see when looking at Hermitage's schedule that they will be scrimmaging Monacan on August 10th. Might try to go see that one.

Yeah I think it is a 3 way with either Motoaca or Hopewell
 
Well I think that Hermitage has a tougher schedule than Bird by 2 games. If Bird would have played Hermitage schedule would they have been 6-4 or even 5-5 last year? If that would have happened Bird May have been the best 5-5 team ever fielded bc I still think they had a pretty good football team. IDK either way just food for thought.

What I am saying this could very well happen to Hermitage.... they could end up being the best 6-4 to 5-5 football team in the state. Which would be way down for Hermitage but could still be a tough out even for a quality team. They may sneak an extra one somewhere and hit 7 wins. I still think they have some quality ball players over there. If I was a betting man I would have them losing all of the first 4 though. They may lose to a 10-0 Manchester, an 10-0 HSHS, a 9-1 Henrico, and an 8-2 Varina and a 10-0 TD and be 5-5. Can you imagine that?!!

I guess I am not as sold on Deep Run as you are quite yet. I know their QB is a good tough runner. Glenn Allen has 4 good recievers, that TB who is a dump truck plus a dual threat qb with a nice throwing touch.

Only concerns I have with Glen Allen is defense. Actually that goes for both Deep Run and Glen Allen.
 
I've got to agree with Danny. I said months ago that Hermitage would be 5-5. And I'll downgrade that now to 4-6. If Hermitage finishes better than 5-5, I'll wear a Life Christian Acadamy hat for a game during the playoffs. (monape1 will be paying off officials now so that he can see me wear that hat!)

It hurt to lose Kane but let’s be honest having players leave really made it extra bad. Bird still had plenty of talent last year and lots of speed and size. If Herm didn’t have so many athletes leave I wouldn’t be predicting a 5-5 or 6-4 season. Also, I don’t know that anyone has ever said they have them winning more than 6 games. If so, I haven’t heard it. So not sure if I am ready to call DP nastradamus just yet :)

Regarding LCA, are some of you now saying they aren’t even going to have a season? What are we saying? With the athletes they have they will clearly be a better than average football team even if they are drawing up plays in the dirt in the huddle. Everyone keeps talking about 3 years from now... all I ever said is they will have a good team this year. People are making it out like the whole thing is an elaborate hoax or something... Are we saying that the moon landing was just NASA and Uncle Sam having fun with us?
 
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Only concerns I have with Glen Allen is defense. Actually that goes for both Deep Run and Glen Allen.

Yeah the colonial is going to be interesting this year. It is sort of up for grabs.. Who knows if Godwin, Tucker, and Freeman will be good. I think it is going to be a district with a lot of slightly better than average to average football teams so it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
 
Yeah the colonial is going to be interesting this year. It is sort of up for grabs.. Who knows if Godwin, Tucker, and Freeman will be good. I think it is going to be a district with a lot of slightly better than average to average football teams so it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.
It really is interesting to see how the Colonial will pan out!! When was the last time Hermitage didn't win that district? The Dominion could be up for grabs too. As will The Central, will it be Dale, Dinwiddie, Hopewell, MBK? I like Coach Thompson over at Meadowbrook. I think he might be a good fit for them. Also, don't count out Troy Taylor over at Bird either. He's going to have the Skyhawks ready before long!
 
It really is interesting to see how the Colonial will pan out!! When was the last time Hermitage didn't win that district? The Dominion could be up for grabs too. As will The Central, will it be Dale, Dinwiddie, Hopewell, MBK? I like Coach Thompson over at Meadowbrook. I think he might be a good fit for them. Also, don't count out Troy Taylor over at Bird either. He's going to have the Skyhawks ready before long!

Springs... so lets go into that...

The Dominion I suppose is up for grabs in theory but I think Manchester is the clear cut favorite. Then followed by Monacan and Bird in the order of your choice. Bird has some series speed but losing Beamon to in district Manchester hurts bad. Also, Manchester got a few more transfers from Meadowbrook that are impact players plus 1-2 from Clover Hill. Monacan returns a lot but there is uncertainty after losing 50 TD's between Bridy, Fludd, and Reeves. James River should be better this year along with Cosby and CH. I also think Midlo will be better and has a good QB. Huguenot is the one I am not sure about.

The Central IMO will be Dinwiddie or TD no question. We have already talked about the capital district to death lol.

I can tell you QB play in the 804 will be incredible this year. @BleedingNavy and I had this discussion the other day. So many good Qb's I could start rattling off and a few that may be poised to have a coming out party this season.
 
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Springs... so lets go into that...

The Dominion I suppose is up for grabs in theory but I think Manchester is the clear cut favorite. Then followed by Monacan and Bird in the order of your choice. Bird has some series speed but losing Beamon to in district Manchester hurts bad. Also, Manchester got a few more transfers from Meadowbrook that are impact players plus 1-2 from Clover Hill. Monacan returns a lot but there is uncertainty after losing 50 TD's between Bridy, Fludd, and Reeves. James River should be better this year along with Cosby and CH. I also think Midlo will be better and has a good QB. Huguenot is the one I am not sure about.

The Central IMO will be Dinwiddie or TD no question. We have already talked about the capital district to death lol.

I can tell you QB play in the 804 will be incredible this year. @BleedingNavy and I had this discussion the other day. So many good Qb's I could start rattling off and a few that may be poised to have a coming out party this season.
I like it! Well stated! .... Not to beat the Capital to death, but it too should be an interesting race! My boyz will have to "come to play" against all foes and Henrico really has emerged as a threat.. HS will be on the road 1st 4 games after Hermitage we go down to a strong Woodside program to face the Wolverines, then always dangerous MBK, then to Fredericksburg for Riverbend. Springers schedule doesn't contain many cupcakes!
Quarterbacks in the 804 are ridiculous this year!
 
I like it! Well stated! .... Not to beat the Capital to death, but it too should be an interesting race! My boyz will have to "come to play" against all foes and Henrico really has emerged as a threat.. HS will be on the road 1st 4 games after Hermitage we go down to a strong Woodside program to face the Wolverines, then always dangerous MBK, then to Fredericksburg for Riverbend. Springers schedule doesn't contain many cupcakes!
Quarterbacks in the 804 are ridiculous this year!

Woodside was down last year... I hope they have a nice rebound year. I think they are dropping to D5 for 2019?

Riverbend was a jeckle and hyde team last year. Didn’t know who would show up week to week the team that anialates JR or a the team that scrambles with a team that they shouldn’t. All in all I think they are pretty solid they just didn’t give us a “signiture win” last year. This year we shall see.

I am telling you I am ready to call Glen Allen as winning the Colonial but I won’t do it without seeing Hermitage first. :)
 
Woodside was down last year... I hope they have a nice rebound year. I think they are dropping to D5 for 2019?

Riverbend was a jeckle and hyde team last year. Didn’t know who would show up week to week the team that anialates JR or a the team that scrambles with a team that they shouldn’t. All in all I think they are pretty solid they just didn’t give us a “signiture win” last year. This year we shall see.

I am telling you I am ready to call Glen Allen as winning the Colonial but I won’t do it without seeing Hermitage first. :)
Woodside finished 8-3 last year I think.
Riverbend played one helluva tough schedule last year too! They played Manchester, HSHS, Colonial Forge, Massaponax, Stafford, N. Stafford, and Brook Point. All of which were play off teams!
 
Only concerns I have with Glen Allen is defense. Actually that goes for both Deep Run and Glen Allen.
I will be keeping an eye on Glen Allen this season, since former UVA running back Perry Jones is the new defensive coordinator. I met him when he coached at Charlottesville High. It'll be interesting to see how the young coach does after giving up so many points last year.
 
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The Dominion I suppose is up for grabs in theory but I think Manchester is the clear cut favorite. Then followed by Monacan and Bird in the order of your choice. Bird has some series speed but losing Beamon to in district Manchester hurts bad. Also, Manchester got a few more transfers from Meadowbrook that are impact players plus 1-2 from Clover Hill. Monacan returns a lot but there is uncertainty after losing 50 TD's between Bridy, Fludd, and Reeves. James River should be better this year along with Cosby and CH. I also think Midlo will be better and has a good QB. Huguenot is the one I am not sure about.
The way you worded all this makes me lose some confidence in your boys. :( Even if you guys do reload, 50 TDs sure is a heck of a lot to make up against your district, and Monacan didn't really start playing seriously last year until the Manchester game. It sounds like Manchester will be unbeatable and Monacan could easily be beaten by Bird, Midlo and JR, as all those games were close last year. And then who knows how good Cosby will be?
 
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It hurt to lose Kane but let’s be honest having players leave really made it extra bad. Bird still had plenty of talent last year and lots of speed and size. If Herm didn’t have so many athletes leave I wouldn’t be predicting a 5-5 or 6-4 season. Also, I don’t know that anyone has ever said they have them winning more than 6 games. If so, I haven’t heard it. So not sure if I am ready to call DP nastradamus just yet :)

Regarding LCA, are some of you now saying they aren’t even going to have a season? What are we saying? With the athletes they have they will clearly be a better than average football team even if they are drawing up plays in the dirt in the huddle. Everyone keeps talking about 3 years from now... all I ever said is they will have a good team this year. People are making it out like the whole thing is an elaborate hoax or something... Are we saying that the moon landing was just NASA and Uncle Sam having fun with us?

Cannot argue with what you say about the comparison between LC Bird and Hermitage. The losses at Hermitage between coach and players will sting this season. If it does go badly... something to think about is how much pressure is put on Coach Johnson to rebound in 2019? As we all know... when a program and fan base is used to winning and suddenly you aren't and it lasts for more than a season... things become restless.
 
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Springs... so lets go into that...

The Dominion I suppose is up for grabs in theory but I think Manchester is the clear cut favorite. Then followed by Monacan and Bird in the order of your choice. Bird has some series speed but losing Beamon to in district Manchester hurts bad. Also, Manchester got a few more transfers from Meadowbrook that are impact players plus 1-2 from Clover Hill. Monacan returns a lot but there is uncertainty after losing 50 TD's between Bridy, Fludd, and Reeves. James River should be better this year along with Cosby and CH. I also think Midlo will be better and has a good QB. Huguenot is the one I am not sure about.

The Central IMO will be Dinwiddie or TD no question. We have already talked about the capital district to death lol.

I can tell you QB play in the 804 will be incredible this year. @BleedingNavy and I had this discussion the other day. So many good Qb's I could start rattling off and a few that may be poised to have a coming out party this season.

So we are talking districts... Here's my rankings as of right now...

Central
Thomas Dale
Dinwiddie
Hopewell
Petersburg
Matoaca
Meadowbrook
Colonial Heights
Prince George

Colonial(toughest by far to sort out)
Deep Run
Hermitage
Mills Godwin
Glen Allen
Douglas Freeman
JR Tucker
Thomas Jefferson
John Marshall

Dominion
Manchester
LC Bird
Monacan
James River
Midlothian
Cosby
Clover Hill
Huguenot
George Wythe
 
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The way you worded all this makes me lose some confidence in your boys. :( Even if you guys do reload, 50 TDs sure is a heck of a lot to make up against your district, and Monacan didn't really start playing seriously last year until the Manchester game. It sounds like Manchester will be unbeatable and Monacan could easily be beaten by Bird, Midlo and JR, as all those games were close last year. And then who knows how good Cosby will be?

Oh it certainly isn't a automatic victory for us particularly against JR. Midlo hasn't beat us in a long time so I don't know about that one. Bird and Manchester may beat us IDK we will see. I would say Mon and Bird could go either way and Manchester is certainly the favorite. But as I have said before, don't think that Fludd was the only person at Monacan that could throw the football. We have 2 QB's that can really throw the ball. We are going to have 3-4 really good receivers and a dangerous read option out of the spread for sure. Monacan has a bad habit of playing well against good teams but also playing down to their competition level against teams that aren't as good. We also stopped trying to score 50pts per game so sometimes the score is misleading. I don't worry about our skill players... my worry for us is always how will our D-line and O-line be. They will be good enough to win most games but against a really good big physical team that is where I worry for us. Same thing I worry about every year. If a team plans to outscore us and get into a fast break game that is what we would prefer.
 
One thing I've always thought was Monacan should run more of their read option. Against us and Manchester last year, they didn't really bring it out until late in the game. Do you think they'll do that, or try to stay more of a power running team when they do run the ball? I guess it would depend on how good the O line will be first and foremost.
 
One thing I've always thought was Monacan should run more of their read option. Against us and Manchester last year, they didn't really bring it out until late in the game. Do you think they'll do that, or try to stay more of a power running team when they do run the ball? I guess it would depend on how good the O line will be first and foremost.

BTW how many touchdowns did you lose to graduation? The number had to be similar!! With Bell, Smith, and Whalen gone it had to be close to 40. That is probably what ours was. 50+ was what Bridy and Fludd combined for their JR year but we didn't score as much last year. If we come to Louisa this year we may be the team with the 6'3 230lb bowling ball QB :)
 
BTW how many touchdowns did you lose to graduation? The number had to be similar!! With Bell, Smith, and Whalen gone it had to be close to 40. That is probably what ours was. 50+ was what Bridy and Fludd combined for their JR year but we didn't score as much last year. If we come to Louisa this year we may be the team with the 6'3 230lb bowling ball QB :)
Smith will be back, he's a rising senior! Lol...it's gonna be unfair for whoever ends up near him on the field this year. He's up to 227 lbs and is just living the dream right now.

Bell alone accounted for 60 TDs over the last two seasons, so include Whalen and that number has to be crazy for last season.

Sounds like you guys will be sticking to more power football then! That's my kind of runner! Definitely gotta watch y'all play this year. If we end up rematching again, don't truck my boys too badly, they'll be young (besides Smith).
 
So we are talking districts... Here's my rankings as of right now...

Central
Thomas Dale
Dinwiddie
Hopewell
Petersburg
Matoaca
Meadowbrook
Colonial Heights
Prince George

Colonial(toughest by far to sort out)
Deep Run
Hermitage
Mills Godwin
Glen Allen
Douglas Freeman
JR Tucker
Thomas Jefferson
John Marshall

Dominion
Manchester
LC Bird
Monacan
James River
Midlothian
Cosby
Clover Hill
Huguenot
George Wythe
Why no Capital District rankings from you?
 
I was afraid to ask... for fear of beating a dead horse! Highland Springs really isn't the only school with a football team in the District!

It will be competitive... obviously Highland Springs will be tough to beat but Henrico and Varina are threats...

If Hanover improves their defense they have a young running back who could help buck the trend of the last couple of seasons.

Lee-Davis will do what Lee-Davis does... Win 7-8 games, make playoffs but probably go out in the first round of the playoffs.

Patrick Henry I'm not so certain on...

Armstrong will be improved with their young QB and a year under Coach Painter.

Atlee has Warren back at quarterback but I have questions about their defense.
 
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It will be competitive... obviously Highland Springs will be tough to beat but Henrico and Varina are threats...

If Hanover improves their defense they have a young running back who could help buck the trend of the last couple of seasons.

Lee-Davis will do what Lee-Davis does... Win 7-8 games, make playoffs but probably go out in the first round of the playoffs.

Patrick Henry I'm not so certain on...

Armstrong will be improved with their young QB and a year under Coach Painter.

Atlee has Warren back at quarterback but I have questions about their defense.
Speaking of Henrico and Varina. I don't really know much about either one except what I have read on here. So far.... from my perspective, Henrico sounds like they will have a very good offense, but not hearing too much on their defense. They were strong defensively last year, but not sure what they lost on that side of the ball. Varina too sounds like the will be good on the offense side of the ball. They will be big. Them too, not hearing too much on their defense. With that said, I do know about HSHS. Last years defense was as good if not better than any in the past 10 years. Nearly all of them will be back too! Not only will HS be very strong on offense, but the defense could also be one of the best they have ever had too. They will be VERY hard to beat. I know it's not impossible, but it will take a monumental effort and maybe a "bad day" on the Springers. Let's hope not!
 
Lee Davis will drop to C-4 next year, correct? I guess you have to immediately think of them as a second or third round playoff team? (Assuming they maintain their status quo).

Boy, PA has sure fooled me. I figured they would instantly been a factor in C-4. I'm hanging last year's stumble on the very late coaching change. Could/should be improved this season, but my gut tells me otherwise.
 
Lee Davis will drop to C-4 next year, correct? I guess you have to immediately think of them as a second or third round playoff team? (Assuming they maintain their status quo).

Boy, PA has sure fooled me. I figured they would instantly been a factor in C-4. I'm hanging last year's stumble on the very late coaching change. Could/should be improved this season, but my gut tells me otherwise.

Well yes, Lee-Davis might fare better in Class 4 but that is a year away and by then they will have lost running back Josh Rice and quarterback Zach Lass who are going to be big playmakers this year for them.
 
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The Capital is brutal. You can be 5-5, miss the playoffs, and still be one of the top teams in the state.

Guess you are right about L-D. Lass and Rice will be their weapons this year, and will certainly be missed next season.

Danny, you are the stat guy, but my gut tells me that when a school drops a class, they usually don't fare too well that first year? I would expect this moving up, but not dropping down. Again, I'm speaking from my gut, (as ample as it is), and I'm probably totally wrong.
 
The Capital is brutal. You can be 5-5, miss the playoffs, and still be one of the top teams in the state.

Guess you are right about L-D. Lass and Rice will be their weapons this year, and will certainly be missed next season.

Danny, you are the stat guy, but my gut tells me that when a school drops a class, they usually don't fare too well that first year? I would expect this moving up, but not dropping down. Again, I'm speaking from my gut, (as ample as it is), and I'm probably totally wrong.

Give me a few days and I'll let you know.
 
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I think Lee Davis is generally a little bit over-valued. Still a quality team but when we talk about the upper echelon in the 804... Have they had a signature win recently? I can’t think of one. Without that, I think they are a solid team but don’t shake up the class 4 ranks in Region B until then
 
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The Capital is brutal. You can be 5-5, miss the playoffs, and still be one of the top teams in the state.

Guess you are right about L-D. Lass and Rice will be their weapons this year, and will certainly be missed next season.

Danny, you are the stat guy, but my gut tells me that when a school drops a class, they usually don't fare too well that first year? I would expect this moving up, but not dropping down. Again, I'm speaking from my gut, (as ample as it is), and I'm probably totally wrong.

Well actually....

Since 1986 with the establishment of divisions/classes there have been 49 instances of a team dropping down in class and 26 out of those 49 times, the team improved! 17 times they did drop off and only six times was the record the same.

Moving up is where it differs... 33 times since 1986 we have seen a team in the region move up and 15 out of those 33 dropped. Only 11 improved and 7 remained the same.

What I found more interesting was the teams who have bounced around the most...
Meadowbrook has moved up 3 times and down 3 times
Midlothian is right there with 4 moves down, 2 moves up.
JR Tucker takes the cake with 8 moves... 4 up, 4 down!
 
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Thanks Danny, neat stuff there. It disproves my "gut" theory. I guess statistically it about follows logic.

Poor Tucker, nobody wants them. LOL!

What was the system prior to 86?
 
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