We are always looking for ways to determine what will happen in sports. It's not enough just to go by coaches or the players a team has returning, we need more. Especially at a time like this when there isn't much to talk about regarding say high school football as the school year quickly comes to a close and we have two months before practices begin... So let's do it, let's talk trends...
There have been eight champions in 3A that won more than one championship but only four of those teams are still 3A; James Monroe, Brookville, Northside and Rustburg. Of those schools, only James Monroe and Brookville have won 3 or more.
Of the 18 schools that have won 3A state titles, 9 remain; that means half the champions in 3A play in another class.
The last six state champions reached no less than the second round the year before winning the state title... Considering that preceding 2013 there were only four rounds, I combined the second and third rounds over the last two years. This favors schools such as Phoebus, Booker T. Washington, Hopewell, York, Poquoson, Broadway, Monticello, Brookville, Christiansburg, Petersburg, Waynesboro and Northside.
Of course 3 of the last 4 state champions played in the state semifinals the year before which definitely favors Western Albemarle, James Monroe and Magna Vista.
There have been six state champions who did not make the playoffs the year before which favors many; Colonial Heights, New Kent, Park View(South Hill), Southampton, Thomas Jefferson(Richmond), John Marshall, Spotsylvania, George Wythe, Brentsville, Manassas Park, Riverside, Fort Defiance, Spotswood, Turner Ashby, Rustburg, Alleghany, Rockbridge, Staunton River and Patrick.
Brookville, Gretna, Jefferson Forest and James Monroe are the only teams to repeat in 3A.
Of the 15 titles won since 2000 there have been 13 different winners.
14 of the last 17 champions had 6 wins or more the year before which favors Poquoson, Armstrong, IC Norcom, Phoebus, Tabb, York, James Monroe, William Monroe, Skyline, Broadway, Monticello, Western Albemarle, Brookville, Heritage(Lynchburg), Liberty(Bedford), Tunstall, Lord Botetourt, Magna Vista, Northside, Abingdon, Blacksburg, Cave Spring and Hidden Valley.
3 of the last 4 champions in 3A had a rating of 26.0 or higher the year before winning it all... That means Heritage(Lynchburg), Hidden Valley, Magna Vista, Northside, James Monroe, Poquoson and Phoebus.
So what does it all mean? Absolutely nothing because trends are meant to be broken and bucked but if they hold true, it favors schools such as James Monroe and Northside who not only reached the state semifinals last season but also are among the schools that had a 26.0 rating or higher and had six or more wins.
Now if you need more than two possibilities, look to Phoebus, Poquoson and Magna Vista. All three meet nearly all the criteria and Phoebus certainly knows what it takes to win a state title.
There have been eight champions in 3A that won more than one championship but only four of those teams are still 3A; James Monroe, Brookville, Northside and Rustburg. Of those schools, only James Monroe and Brookville have won 3 or more.
Of the 18 schools that have won 3A state titles, 9 remain; that means half the champions in 3A play in another class.
The last six state champions reached no less than the second round the year before winning the state title... Considering that preceding 2013 there were only four rounds, I combined the second and third rounds over the last two years. This favors schools such as Phoebus, Booker T. Washington, Hopewell, York, Poquoson, Broadway, Monticello, Brookville, Christiansburg, Petersburg, Waynesboro and Northside.
Of course 3 of the last 4 state champions played in the state semifinals the year before which definitely favors Western Albemarle, James Monroe and Magna Vista.
There have been six state champions who did not make the playoffs the year before which favors many; Colonial Heights, New Kent, Park View(South Hill), Southampton, Thomas Jefferson(Richmond), John Marshall, Spotsylvania, George Wythe, Brentsville, Manassas Park, Riverside, Fort Defiance, Spotswood, Turner Ashby, Rustburg, Alleghany, Rockbridge, Staunton River and Patrick.
Brookville, Gretna, Jefferson Forest and James Monroe are the only teams to repeat in 3A.
Of the 15 titles won since 2000 there have been 13 different winners.
14 of the last 17 champions had 6 wins or more the year before which favors Poquoson, Armstrong, IC Norcom, Phoebus, Tabb, York, James Monroe, William Monroe, Skyline, Broadway, Monticello, Western Albemarle, Brookville, Heritage(Lynchburg), Liberty(Bedford), Tunstall, Lord Botetourt, Magna Vista, Northside, Abingdon, Blacksburg, Cave Spring and Hidden Valley.
3 of the last 4 champions in 3A had a rating of 26.0 or higher the year before winning it all... That means Heritage(Lynchburg), Hidden Valley, Magna Vista, Northside, James Monroe, Poquoson and Phoebus.
So what does it all mean? Absolutely nothing because trends are meant to be broken and bucked but if they hold true, it favors schools such as James Monroe and Northside who not only reached the state semifinals last season but also are among the schools that had a 26.0 rating or higher and had six or more wins.
Now if you need more than two possibilities, look to Phoebus, Poquoson and Magna Vista. All three meet nearly all the criteria and Phoebus certainly knows what it takes to win a state title.
