Defense: Points Per Game Allowed - Concorde/Conference 5

[1amishfootballfan]

In the back of my mind it seemed to me that high school defenses in the NOVA area just aren't as dominate as they once were. So I did a quick analysis of the 6 teams in Conference 5 (Centreville, Chantilly, Herndon, Oakton, Robinson, Westfield) and compared their points allowed per game in 2001-2004 vs. 2011-2014. This included all games - regular season and playoffs. Data was from VHSL-Reference, looked only at raw scores so that does not differentiate between special teams points or defensive scores. Is this unique to Conference 5 or is it across the board in NOVA? Or all of Virginia? And what is different over the last 10 years?

2001: 13.3
2002: 14.3
2003: 16.0
2004: 15.7

2011: 20.7
2012: 24.6
2013: 23.5
2014: 27.9

 

[GilliamRatings]

In the back of my mind it seemed to me that high school defenses in the NOVA area just aren't as dominate as they once were. So I did a quick analysis of the 6 teams in Conference 5 (Centreville, Chantilly, Herndon, Oakton, Robinson, Westfield) and compared their points allowed per game in 2001-2004 vs. 2011-2014. This included all games - regular season and playoffs. Data was from VHSL-Reference, looked only at raw scores so that does not differentiate between special teams points or defensive scores. Is this unique to Conference 5 or is it across the board in NOVA? Or all of Virginia? And what is different over the last 10 years?

2001: 13.3
2002: 14.3
2003: 16.0
2004: 15.7

2011: 20.7
2012: 24.6
2013: 23.5
2014: 27.9

Scoring is way up all over Virginia. In 1999 there was an average of 41.3 points scored per game. By 2014 it was up to 50.1. So the average team is scoring about 4.4 more points per game than they did 15 years ago. Still, the rise you noted here is a lot more than that. Here's a helpful chart.

 

[GurskyT]

Pretty significant jump in allowed scoring averages that is for sure, I was a little bit surprised to see that it has climbed to that much. Even if it was specific to one area or group of teams, five out of six of those teams have been some of the states best in the last 15 years, so those were the right teams to judge by.

I've watched a few classic VA games from the 90's and early 2000's on youtube and such over the last year, some of which involved a couple of the teams you listed. One thing that was very glaring to me was how bold defenses were around this time stacking the box. It seems like there were more run-based teams around this time, especially Wing-T type offenses; there were more defenders put in the box to focus on stopping the run. Now that many programs have switched to wide open spread offense it has translated to more points being scored and defenses have to worry about defending a little more. I honestly do not think teams can get away with stacking the box like they used to.

I will say it's been a while since I have watched a true shutdown defense in PWC. Even the last state champion Battlefield in 2010 I would say was more well-rounded across the board rather than a defensive team.

 

[falcettik]

I've been following NOVA football, specifically the Concorde teams, since 2001 and I have to concur with Gursky that the increase in the passing game has contributed to the increased points allowed averages. I also believe (anecdotally) the overall level of play has improved slightly from top to bottom, with more of the teams in the middle being able to score in recent years. With more teams improving their level of play and the increase in passing, you get more 28-21 (or even 49-42) games than 17-7 games.

 

[oldtimer448]

What was the teams records for each year?

 

[1amishfootballfan]

Total Combined W-L (Regular Season and Playoffs) + Winning Percentage

2001: 42-18 (0.70)
2002: 49-19 (0.72)
2003: 44-17 (0.72)
2004: 45-23 (0.66)

2011: 45-26 (0.63)
2012: 43-29 (0.60)
2013: 45-27 (0.63)
2014: 45-28 (0.62)

 

[1amishfootballfan]

OK, FWIW I also calculated the same teams Points Scored Per Game in the same fashion as Points Allowed Per Game over the same periods of time. It has increased slightly but not consistently the statewide increase noted by Matt. And not nearly as dramatic as points allowed. Not sure where I am going with this...

2001 24.2
2002 26.0
2003 26.9
2004 26.3

2011 26.6
2012 28.3
2013 30.6
2014 27.9