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ICYMI - Tidewater Predictions Column from Oct. 22

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ICYMI - Tidewater Predictions Article on Oct. 22


Tidewater Predictions Total:

Matthew Hatfield –
137-23 (85.6%)
Coach Ed Young – 129-31 (80.6%)

Hatfield and Young both went 3-0 on Thursday night, but Matt’s 19-2 mark in Tidewater games a week ago bested Coach’s, based on comebacks win by Salem and Churchland over the likes of Ocean Lakes and Lake Taylor, respectively.


Game of the Week: Over at John B. Todd Stadium

Phoebus (7-0) at Woodside (5-1) . . .
The last time that Phoebus lost to a Peninsula District foe? It was 2016 when Woodside shut them out 15-0. That puts their streak over PD opponents at 37. Of course, it also was Woodside that famously ended the 52-game VHSL record win streak of Phoebus in 2011 with a 14-9 triumph at Darling Stadium. It’s worth noting that Class 1 powerhouse Riverheads, which has won a state record five straight state titles, is in the midst of a 43-game winning streak that will likely reach 46 by the time the playoffs begin.

Danny Dodson’s Wolverines are playing pretty well defensively during a five-game winning streak where they’ve held the opposition to seven points or fewer on every occasion except a 32-30 overtime escape vs. Warwick. Off the edge, senior DE Markus Watts (8 sacks) has been a one-man wrecking crew. Sophomore 5’5” DB Makai Frisby (6 INT’s) is having a breakout year as well. But in Phoebus, they face a different type of challenge with a high-octane offense unlike any other in the district.

Jeremy Blunt’s Phantoms have scored 40-plus points five times this year. Quarterback Mark Wagner (963 yards, 17-1 TD/Int. ratio) has a host of weapons around him, most notably RB Ty’Reon Taylor (84Att. 542Yds. 9 TD’s) and receiver Kymari Gray (13Rec. 300Yds. 11 TD’s), who is a constant scoring threat. Nobody has been able to line up and run the ball with consistently on the Phoebus defense, which is giving up 5.7 points per contest this season. Junior DT Mychal McMullin has been a major disruptive force for the Phantoms, both stuffing the run and harassing QB’s.

With a re-shuffled Woodside o-line having to deal with McMullin, it’s likely they may be forced to go to the air more than normal. That means QB Tayvon Tyler has to be effective both scrambling and throwing, whether it’s from the pocket or on the move. In the second half of last week’s 21-7 win over Bethel, Tyler was picked off on his first pass. The Phantoms have several takeaway threats, including Donald Gatling, who recorded two pick-sixes in a 56-6 rout of Lake Taylor in the opener.

Additionally, the Wolverines racked up just 102 yards after half-time in that game with 56 coming on a relatively meaningless pass (to the outcome at least) at the end of the game from Dai’vionne Fitzgerald to Justice Dunham. Fitzgerald had a pick-six in the second quarter that gave them two-score cushion.

Matt Hatfield Says – Phoebus 37-13
Coach Ed Young Says – Phoebus 40-12


Battle for Second Place in the Beach:

Bayside (5-2) at Kempsville (4-1) . . .
Speaking of streaks, it is still fresh in the minds of many the long skid that came to an end just two Octobers ago when the Kempsville Chefs knocked off the Bayside Marlins 32-28. Not only did the Chiefs end an 11-game losing skid to the Marlins in the head-to-head series, but they halted a 63-game losing streak overall that was the state’s longest at the time. Some components from that game on each side remain, but most of the characters are different, although the defensive lineman that announced his presence in that game was Jaylon White of Kempsville.

That night, White had three tackles for loss in the first half, forced a fumble and recovered one, just two weeks after his housed burnt down. He’s committed to play his College Football at Old Dominion and also doubles as a key offensive lineman – along with the likes of Elijah Munden, Karlos Isler, Michael Tamakloe, Darius Carney, Makai Bacon and Shaun Sanders Jr. – to pave the way for battering ram running back NaiQuan Washington-Pearce (85Att. 771Yds. 9 TD’s). Earlier in the season, Washington-Pearce ran for over 200 yards in a 21-13 loss to unbeaten Green Run.

Just last week, Green Run pulled away for a 35-0 shutout at Bayside in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated as the Stallions led just 7-0 at the half before scoring three touchdowns in the game’s final eight minutes to gain breathing room. The Marlins not only squandered three opportunities in enemy territory, but it marked the first time their defense gave up more than 190 total yards in a game on the season.

As much as the focus of this one will be whether or not the Bayside defense, led by LB Jeryhn McClenny (54 tackles) and DE Javontay Martin (17TFL) can contain Washington-Pearce, the other key figures to be if the Marlins avoid the turnover bug. In games where Bayside has one or fewer turnovers, they are 3-0 this season. So even more important than QB Mike Myers (1139Yds. 11-8 TD/Int. ratio) finding WR’s Tajon Reese (24Rec. 435Yds. 3 TD’s) and Aaron Evans (20Rec. 270Yds. 4 TD’s) will be that he doesn’t throw it in harm’s way where Amari Presley and the Kempsville DB’s can make a house call.

Matt Hatfield Says – Kempsville 20-19
Coach Ed Young Says –
Bayside 20-19


Rest of the Tidewater Slate:

Cox (4-3) at Tallwood (2-5) . . .
In their 42-14 win over First Colonial last week, the Lions ran for 267 yards and four touchdowns. It’s a much greater task to pull those kind of numbers off against a Cox defense that has given up just three points in the month of October as George Balance (68 tackles, 13 TFL) and Duncan Wilson (49 tackles, 9 TFL) are regularly making plays in the run game.

Matt Hatfield Says – Cox 21-7
Coach Ed Young Says –
Cox 28-12


First Colonial (2-6) at Ocean Lakes (4-2) . . .
The Dolphins are reeling, coming off three straight losses and this is their last shot for a win in the month of October with a bye next week. This ought to be a great spot for QB Landon Spell and company to get the offense revved up, facing an FC defense allowing 35.4 PPG.

Matt Hatfield Says – Ocean Lakes 40-14
Coach Ed Young Says –
Ocean Lakes 44-6


Princess Anne (1-4) at Green Run (7-0) . . . While Green Run won 11 straight in this series from 2006-16, the Stallions are actually 0-3 under Head Coach Brandon Williams against the Cavaliers. His 2021 Stallions are much different than those previous groups, averaging a whopping 40.1 points per game and well-equipped to add another notch to the belt on a quest for an undefeated season.

Matt Hatfield Says – Green Run 56-6
Coach Ed Young Says –
Green Run 48-6


Kellam (3-4) at Salem-VB (4-2) . . . Wildly, Kellam was out-gained 176-154 by Landstown in a game that they won 21-8 over the Eagles a week ago. To halt an 11-game losing streak to Salem and beat the Sun Devils for the first time since 2008, they’ll need the offense to get off to a strong start and finish drives in the red zone.

Matt Hatfield Says – Salem 20-10
Coach Ed Young Says –
Salem 24-14


Booker T. Washington (4-2) at Granby (0-6) . . . Despite being winless, Granby has shown better as of late defensively in close losses to Manor and Norview, by 12-7 and 14-7 counts, respectively. Meanwhile, after averaging 36.5 points per game through a 3-1 start, the Bookers have been held to 20 points in each of the past two outings; a 16-6 victory over Norview and unexpected 21-18 loss to Norcom.

Matt Hatfield Says – Booker T. Washington 22-6
Coach Ed Young Says –
Booker T. Washington 30-0


Lake Taylor (3-4) at Glen Allen (3-3) . . .
The Jaguars have two FCS commits in TE Sam McElwain (William & Mary) and LB Zach Chambers (Richmond) that Lake Taylor will have to content with in this game. Coaching Glen Allen is former Oscar Smith great and UVA standout Perry Jones.

Matt Hatfield Says – Glen Allen 30-27
Coach Ed Young Says –
Glen Allen 24-21 (“First I’ve ever picked against LT”)


Oscar Smith (5-1) at Nansemond River (3-3) . . . The Warriors have won a couple of close ones the past two weeks; first beating Suffolk rival Lakeland 21-20 and then upending Deep Creek 21-14. It was a strong rushing performance against the Hornets with 247 yards rushing and three touchdowns on 34 attempts. Defensively, they’ll need to find some answers against a prolific Tigers passing game that racked up 238 yards passing against King’s Fork on nine completions from ODU commit Ethan Vasko, who threw five touchdowns to raise his season total to 12.

Matt Hatfield Says – Oscar Smith 48-7
Coach Ed Young Says –
Oscar Smith 40-12


Deep Creek (4-3) at Western Branch (7-1) . . . In their 21-14 loss to Nansemond River, the Hornets had trouble stopping the run and their defense has been hit hard over the past three games in giving up 34 PPG over that span. To avoid a three-game losing streak following a four-game winning streak, Deep Creek must be able to wrap up Bruins RB Shimique Blizzard (155Car. 738Yds. 11 TD’s).

Western Branch DE Jaden Tucker (10 sacks) is doing a nice job of getting after opposing QB’s for a defense that is yielding just 7.1 PPG this season. Deep Creek QB Anthony Barnes is as much of a threat running with 647 yards and 9 TD’s on the ground as he is throwing with 445 yards and a 5-0 TD/Int. ratio.

Matt Hatfield Says – Western Branch 28-16
Coach Ed Young Says –
Western Branch 30-28


Great Bridge (0-5) at Indian River (3-2) . . . Even though Lakeland piled up 305 yards and 26 points on Indian River, the Braves were sharp on offense in putting up 40 points without any turnovers committed. Against a Great Bridge defense giving up 43.6 PPG, they should be able to keep the pocket clean for sophomore QB Tyler Allison (51 of 101 for 746Yds. 10-5 TD/Int. ratio).

Matt Hatfield Says – Indian River 42-7
Coach Ed Young Says –
Indian River 38-0


Hickory (2-5) at King’s Fork (5-1) . . . As long as King’s Fork can clean up the penalties, committing 18 in the first half alone in a 49-7 loss at Oscar Smith, they have a distinct talent and speed edge in this one. This is a spot where Bulldogs QB Cameron Butler (687 pass yards, 8-1 TD/Int. ratio) may get a chance to take some shots deep on a Hawks team that hasn’t won in this series since 2011, dropping eight straight.

Matt Hatfield Says – King’s Fork 31-3
Coach Ed Young Says –
King’s Fork 40-0


Denbigh (0-7) at Kecoughtan (3-3) . . . Even though it has been a rough October for Kecoughtan in being outscored 57-22, they have shown more signs of life than Denbigh. So far, the Patriots have been outscored 327-7 in games that they have played this season, so a big performance could be looming for Kecoughtan QB Marvin McCue (507 yards, 4-7 TD/Int. ratio).

Matt Hatfield Says – Kecoughtan 38-8
Coach Ed Young Says –
Kecoughtan 30-0


Bruton (3-4) at Poquoson (3-3) . . . It’s a rare Bay Rivers District matchup of Region 2A foes because, well, they are the only Region 2A schools from the league. Panthers RB Trey Corbin (76Car. 634Yds. 6 TD’s) has been a force, but Poquoson may be better suited to stop the run in this game than Bruton’s defense, still smarting from a 37-7 loss to West Point on Monday. A quick turnaround doesn’t bode well for a squad already short when it comes to depth.

Matt Hatfield Says – Poquoson 27-6
Coach Ed Young Says –
Poquoson 22-19


Warhill (7-0) at Grafton (1-6) . . . Could Warhill be looking past Grafton to a showdown with York on October 29? It’s quite possible, but the Clippers have to show they can make them pay for that and right now that is hard to envision. Grafton has allowed 39.2 PPG since a 44-0 shutout of Denbigh in the opener.

Matt Hatfield Says – Warhill 40-18
Coach Ed Young Says –
Warhill 42-6


Jamestown (1-5) at Lafayette (5-1) . . .
A lot has been made about the defensive struggles for Lafayette in a 61-42 loss to King William. What might not be getting enough attention is how well the Rams played offensively, piling up 565 yards of offense. Receiver Jaylen Pretlow went off for 11 catches for 257 yards and 3 TD’s. It’s doubtful Jamestown has anyone that can cover him, plus contain a usually strong Lafayette ground attack.


Matt Hatfield Says – Lafayette 49-13
Coach Ed Young Says –
Lafayette 50-6


Tabb (2-5) at New Kent (3-4) . . . Maybe the hardest game to call on the board of the week, the Tigers are fresh off back-to-back shutouts of Grafton and Smithfield, the ladder being the more surprising. New Kent ran for nearly 400 yards in a 48-20 victory over Grafton, where Ryan Gray and Joe Batkins each had a pair of touchdowns. Both schools are also battling for a playoff spot in Region 3A, so it’s very possible that the winner here finds its way into the postseason, whereas the loser is left out of the eight-team postseason field.

Matt Hatfield Says – Tabb 12-10
Coach Ed Young Says –
New Kent 12-10 (“New Kent curse of Eddie Allen will get me… again!”)


SAT 10/23/21 Action:

Churchland (5-2) at Norcom (1-3) . . .
The Greyhounds pulled off a bit of a surprise with a 21-18 victory over Booker T. Washington last week. Darian King ran for 116 yards and a touchdown in the win, but the Churchland defense is limiting foes to 126.4 rush yards per contest. The Truckers have seven defenders with at least five tackles for loss, led by Keyshawn Key (9 TFL).

Matt Hatfield Says – Churchland 30-16
Coach Ed Young Says –
Churchland 28-6


Bethel (3-5) at Menchville (3-3) . . . At times, Bethel has been stagnant offensively, though freshman Messiah Delhomme has shown glimpses of being a QB to watch out for with the ability to make things happen on the run. Menchville got its passing game revved up in a 41-3 win over Gloucester last week, where QB K.J. White threw three touchdown passes, two of which went to Amir Harrison.

Matt Hatfield Says – Menchville 18-17
Coach Ed Young Says –
Menchville 24-20
 
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