If Riverheads out of picture in 1A since 2015, Calpreps Says about Essex?

[Fairlawncat]

I have often heard the argument by some on here that if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015 or so, Essex would have been the dominant team and would have many more state titles. Well, here is what Calpreps Predicts on Hypothetical and this can go back many years. You might be surprised by this. The argument can be made strongly for Galax and even Chilhowie as well as Essex. See below.

2022- Essex Lost to Riverheads 21-8 George Wythe lost 49-27. Calpreps predicts Essex 34-28 over G. Wythe in a close game (game within 6 pts, I call that close)

2021-22 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-12 and Galax lost to Riverheads 45-14. Calpreps predicts Galax 35-24 over Essex (game not within 10 points)

2020 Essex did not have a season and Galax lost to Riverheads 65-29

2019 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-19 and Galax lost to Riverheads 31-24 Calpreps picks Galax 38-21 over Essex (game not within 10 points)

2018 Essex Lost to Riverheads 28-6 and Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 35-7 (Calpreps picks Chilhowie 35-10 over Essex (game not close, a huge win for Chilhowie)

2017 Essex Lost to Riverheads 17-14 Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 42-0. Calpreps picks Essex 28-21 over Chilhowie (game within 7 points, I call that close)

2016 Essex Lost to Riverheads 38-0. Galax lost 63-21 to Riverheads. Calpreps pick 35-10 Galax over Essex (game not close, another 25 point win prediction for the west)

2015 Galax State Title

Conclusions. There are 2 times above since 2015 that Essex has been favored to win a state title by Calpreps and both are close, very close to being within margin of error-only 6 and 7 point wins. There are 5 times since 2015 where Essex was predicted to lose, or where it was obvious (Galax in 2015 won state title) and in the 4 times where Essex was predicted to lose, none of the 4 games were predicted for Essex to be within 10 points and 2 of those 4 games were predicted Essex losses by 25 points. Could Essex have won these games where they were predicted to lose by 11,17,25, and 25 points? Sure, but brothers, it ain't a strong argument. No offense to Essex which is an outstanding team and there's no question that Essex has been solid and we don't know for sure who would have won any of these games, but for some who have the idea that Essex was a "slam dunk" if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015, well.....that argument is anything from a slam dunk. We don't know who would have won, but the argument for the team in the West is fairly strong.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Having witnessed in person all those games involving Riverheads, I have no doubt that Essex was a better team than the west provided in a couple of those years you mention regardless of the computer in CA. I respect all of those teams and still say the most fun of any of these playoffs was when the cross bracketing was taking place. It provided the best possible scenario to get the better teams to Salem.

To put a real fine point on it, they would have beaten Chilhowie both years but most especially in '17. The Galax years may have had a time or two that they would have been good enough to beat them but likely not. I dont want to sound like an ass because those were two good Chilhowie teams but they weren't nearly as good as the team from Essex I seen in person.

 

[RappriverEHS]

2018…Essex lost by 22 to riverheads, chilhowie loses to riverheads by 28 but cal preps has chilhowie beating Essex by 25?? Make it make sense lol

 

[Eaglepride89]

Couldn’t agree more @RedPrideNation_RollPride. The 2017 Essex team was special and the only time I feel they really should’ve won against Riverheads. I was at the game as well and still feel that Essex lost that game due to offensive play calling and not utilizing their playmakers (#4 Johnson in particular)

 

[uvacavs1]

I have often heard the argument by some on here that if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015 or so, Essex would have been the dominant team and would have many more state titles. Well, here is what Calpreps Predicts on Hypothetical and this can go back many years. You might be surprised by this. The argument can be made strongly for Galax and even Chilhowie as well as Essex. See below.

2022- Essex Lost to Riverheads 21-8 George Wythe lost 49-27. Calpreps predicts Essex 34-28 over G. Wythe in a close game (game within 6 pts, I call that close)

2021-22 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-12 and Galax lost to Riverheads 45-14. Calpreps predicts Galax 35-24 over Essex (game not within 10 points)

2020 Essex did not have a season and Galax lost to Riverheads 65-29

2019 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-19 and Galax lost to Riverheads 31-24 Calpreps picks Galax 38-21 over Essex (game not within 10 points)

2018 Essex Lost to Riverheads 28-6 and Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 35-7 (Calpreps picks Chilhowie 35-10 over Essex (game not close, a huge win for Chilhowie)

2017 Essex Lost to Riverheads 17-14 Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 42-0. Calpreps picks Essex 28-21 over Chilhowie (game within 7 points, I call that close)

2016 Essex Lost to Riverheads 38-0. Galax lost 63-21 to Riverheads. Calpreps pick 35-10 Galax over Essex (game not close, another 25 point win prediction for the west)

2015 Galax State Title

Conclusions. There are 2 times above since 2015 that Essex has been favored to win a state title by Calpreps and both are close, very close to being within margin of error-only 6 and 7 point wins. There are 5 times since 2015 where Essex was predicted to lose, or where it was obvious (Galax in 2015 won state title) and in the 4 times where Essex was predicted to lose, none of the 4 games were predicted for Essex to be within 10 points and 2 of those 4 games were predicted Essex losses by 25 points. Could Essex have won these games where they were predicted to lose by 11,17,25, and 25 points? Sure, but brothers, it ain't a strong argument. No offense to Essex which is an outstanding team and there's no question that Essex has been solid and we don't know for sure who would have won any of these games, but for some who have the idea that Essex was a "slam dunk" if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015, well.....that argument is anything from a slam dunk. We don't know who would have won, but the argument for the team in the West is fairly strong.

30-0...

 

[uvacavs1]

I have often heard the argument by some on here that if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015 or so, Essex would have been the dominant team and would have many more state titles. Well, here is what Calpreps Predicts on Hypothetical and this can go back many years. You might be surprised by this. The argument can be made strongly for Galax and even Chilhowie as well as Essex. See below.

2022- Essex Lost to Riverheads 21-8 George Wythe lost 49-27. Calpreps predicts Essex 34-28 over G. Wythe in a close game (game within 6 pts, I call that close)

2021-22 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-12 and Galax lost to Riverheads 45-14. Calpreps predicts Galax 35-24 over Essex (game not within 10 points)

2020 Essex did not have a season and Galax lost to Riverheads 65-29

2019 Essex Lost to Riverheads 56-19 and Galax lost to Riverheads 31-24 Calpreps picks Galax 38-21 over Essex (game not within 10 points)

2018 Essex Lost to Riverheads 28-6 and Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 35-7 (Calpreps picks Chilhowie 35-10 over Essex (game not close, a huge win for Chilhowie)

2017 Essex Lost to Riverheads 17-14 Chilhowie lost to Riverheads 42-0. Calpreps picks Essex 28-21 over Chilhowie (game within 7 points, I call that close)

2016 Essex Lost to Riverheads 38-0. Galax lost 63-21 to Riverheads. Calpreps pick 35-10 Galax over Essex (game not close, another 25 point win prediction for the west)

2015 Galax State Title

Conclusions. There are 2 times above since 2015 that Essex has been favored to win a state title by Calpreps and both are close, very close to being within margin of error-only 6 and 7 point wins. There are 5 times since 2015 where Essex was predicted to lose, or where it was obvious (Galax in 2015 won state title) and in the 4 times where Essex was predicted to lose, none of the 4 games were predicted for Essex to be within 10 points and 2 of those 4 games were predicted Essex losses by 25 points. Could Essex have won these games where they were predicted to lose by 11,17,25, and 25 points? Sure, but brothers, it ain't a strong argument. No offense to Essex which is an outstanding team and there's no question that Essex has been solid and we don't know for sure who would have won any of these games, but for some who have the idea that Essex was a "slam dunk" if Riverheads were not in the picture since 2015, well.....that argument is anything from a slam dunk. We don't know who would have won, but the argument for the team in the West is fairly strong.

Sorry, that was the 1st thing that I thought of when I saw your post!

I do like your post and analytical, out of the box type of thinking. I enjoy all the sides of any good debate.

I think that RedPrideNation said it well. Galax was a powerhouse for a couple of years in there and could have been a strong threat.

Also, Essex does have down years. Like 2016, 2011 (I think). Obviously, some years Essex is stronger than others.

Heck, I think this year is somewhat of a down year for Essex. They are still 10-0 and will be difficult for anyone to knock out.

 

[Fairlawncat]

I respect your guys opinions, but.......they are opinions, just like Calpreps, but Calpreps is pretty accurate come playoff time and disagrees with you.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Sorry, that was the 1st thing that I thought of when I saw your post!

I do like your post and analytical, out of the box type of thinking. I enjoy all the sides of any good debate.

I didn't do any thinking or analytics. I just posted what Calpreps predicts/predicted. You have a computer which is alarmingly accurate taking in hundreds of scores and the computer is generally more accurate than people are....by a lot....and I just posted what Calpreps predicted. Not only did it predict the West winning on 4 of those 6, but it predicted big wins. It's not my personal prediction. I didn't predict anything.

I will say this.....I saw a couple of the Galax teams and Essex teams also, and my take is opposite of the Riverheads gentlemen. Galax was better.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Brother I agree about Galax almost every year and that algorithm is pretty dang accurate but nobody can convince me that the 2017 team from Essex was not miles ahead of Chilhowie. So two out of the 5 you call out are in question to me. We can agree to disagree as I generally do agree with your take on stuff. Hell we are in alignment more often than not but to blanket statement that Essex would have lost all but one is ludicrous to anyone that witnessed the actual games. I would stand on them winning 2 if not sneaking a 3rd from 2016 on if not for Riverheads. Thing is we will never know but we can always “argue” our opinions…….

 

[uvacavs1]

I didn't do any thinking or analytics. I just posted what Calpreps predicts/predicted. You have a computer which is alarmingly accurate taking in hundreds of scores and the computer is generally more accurate than people are....by a lot....and I just posted what Calpreps predicted. Not only did it predict the West winning on 4 of those 6, but it predicted big wins. It's not my personal prediction. I didn't predict anything.

I will say this.....I saw a couple of the Galax teams and Essex teams also, and my take is opposite of the Riverheads gentlemen. Galax was better.

I said that I enjoyed your post and I enjoy analytical, out of the box type of thinking. You should have accepted it as a compliment, my man!

You most definitely organized a long thought out process attempting to prove a certain perspective about Essex whether your "facts" were produced by AI only or created in a manner (narrative) according to the human who presented it.

I wonder what the computer predicted back in 2009? I can assure you that I predicted the outcome but did not realize it would be that easy of a victory.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Like I wrote guys, the opinion isn't mine other than I think Galax on 2 of those years were better than Essex. Does it matter? Not really. The point of my post was simply to point out that there are other opinions that don't hold to the automatic, 'Essex is number 1 without Riverheads," and 1 of those opinions is an alarmingly accurate computer. Could Essex have been the 2nd best team those years from 2016 through 22? Sure they could have. I'm just literally regurgitating what Calpreps thought.

In 2018, with Calpreps predicting a 25 point win for Chilhowiie over Essex, when Calpreps predicts a score of a 25 point margin of victory, they are right 95% of the time across the country. Could Essex have been better and could they have beat Chilhowie in 2018? Sure they could have, but again......they are right 95 out of 100 times when they predict a 25 point win. Again, one could make an argument the other way, opposite of Essex in many of these matchups. That's kind of all I'm saying, but I'm not really saying it, Calpreps is.

 

[Fairlawncat]

but to blanket statement that Essex would have lost all but one is ludicrous to anyone that witnessed the actual games.

I certainly never made a blanket statement that Essex would have lost all but one. I never remotely stated anything close to that. The blanket statements have sometimes been made the other way that it was basically all Essex if Riverheads were not in the equation. In 2 of those matchups of the 6 Calpreps gave, Essex was favored in 2 and not favored in 4 and they actually weren't very close in the 4 they weren't favored. That's what Calpreps says, not me.

 

[Hokie1Pokie]

They ain't got speed up in Valley so when they see Essex they get all star struck. Yall confusing speed with discipline coaching and good football players. Same reason why Essex was getting that azz handed to em against Riverheads is same reason they would have lost to west on most them years without Riverh. Essex would have got some rings but west would have got more

 

[RappriverEHS]

Other then losing to Galax in 15, Essex has done fairly well against Region C and D teams. Ask Radford, John Battle, Fort Chiswell and Haysi.

 

[Hokie1Pokie]

Other than losing to Galax in 15, Essex done fairly well against Region C and D teams. Ask Radford, John Battle, Fort Chiswell and Haysi.

Essex badass to, but Galax been pretty equal badass. Chilhowie 2018 was good, got 3 hurt in Galax game. Didn't play against Riverhead at state game would have been closer with those 3 key ballers.

 

[1MoreHokie]

2018…Essex lost by 22 to riverheads, chilhowie loses to riverheads by 28 but cal preps has chilhowie beating Essex by 25?? Make it make sense lol

Trying to apply the transitive property to sports is about the dumbest thing you can do FWIW.

That Chilhowie team went 14-1 with wins over CalPreps #3 team Galax (by 21) and #4 team PH (by both 23 and 43 points, the only two losses PH suffered). I mean, you really took a 14-1 team whose only loss was in the state finals and decided because Essex played one team slightly closer that it's crazy that Chilowie is seen as a decidedly superior team. Make that make sense.

 

[RappriverEHS]

Congratulations to Chilhowie by beating a bunch of below average Region D teams, excluding Galax. Sorry region d just ain’t it in single A.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

I agree that Galax with Dixon running the show was a different animal and Chilhowie in 18 might have been better but not the team that came to Salem. And IMO the video of them prior to Galax isn't overwhelming that they would have been able to beat Essex but that's just my opinion and isn't nearly as convincing as the numbers used by the computer to come to its conclusion.

As for the no speed in the valley, I have heard year on year how many 4.4 guys certain teams have and its laughable when its live game time. Speed is what it is but i dont care how fast you are in shorts doing a sprint, I care more about football speed and Essex usually has that over every team in Class 1 and a lot of Class 2 teams period. And I agree that discipline has been an issue before but I dont think either Chilhowie team would have been physical enough to frustrate them into the penalties that they tend to make when pushed.

I have a ton of respect for most of the teams I have personally seen from SWVA but I am just not sold they have had the second-best team on a few occasions.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

If we are going by Region as @RappriverEHS mentioned, then I will say to me year in and out, Region C has the most teams that look the part. Galax and GW have had some pretty damn good teams. with Narrows coming on the last few years. I look for Giles to get their feet back under them and start making noise. Every other region generally only has one team that could compete across the state. That again is just an opinion.

As for Region D, it is a mystery to me because even this year as an example, I couldn't tell you if Rye cove is good or a product of playing the other teams in D that honestly arent very good. Is that why Honaker is shining so brightly? Watching the games on NFHS most look good but not great.

With last evenings Grayson/Giles game, I wouldn't count on them representing Region C. There was/is some talk on this board and the other on how big and fast they are. They struggled with an admittedly down Giles team so maybe we all just watch with fan eyes and dont see what is truly there. I know I am guilty of that at times but alas as a fan hope always springs eternal.

 

[longtimerhsfan]

I am sure this issue has been discussed on here elsewhere but hats off to former Essex star Kam Robinson. He has made an immediate impact at UVa and had a key play in last night's game at Louisville. Of course the Cavs eventually did what they always do (a face mask call on THE OFFENSE????) and found a way to lose the game, but that is a topic for another discussion. Anyway, nice of Kam to save those highlight reel plays for UVa instead of showing that kind of stuff in the games against Riverheads.

 

[MT FAN 91]

Having witnessed in person all those games involving Riverheads, I have no doubt that Essex was a better team than the west provided in a couple of those years you mention regardless of the computer in CA. I respect all of those teams and still say the most fun of any of these playoffs was when the cross bracketing was taking place. It provided the best possible scenario to get the better teams to Salem.

To put a real fine point on it, they would have beaten Chilhowie both years but most especially in '17. The Galax years may have had a time or two that they would have been good enough to beat them but likely not. I dont want to sound like an ass because those were two good Chilhowie teams but they weren't nearly as good as the team from Essex I seen in person.

Galax could've beat Essex a couple of times and should've beat Riverheads in 2019 but they didn't want to run the ball until the second half and Riverheads had trouble stopping their ground game that day.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Trying to apply the transitive property to sports is about the dumbest thing you can do FWIW.

That Chilhowie team went 14-1 with wins over CalPreps #3 team Galax (by 21) and #4 team PH (by both 23 and 43 points, the only two losses PH suffered). I mean, you really took a 14-1 team whose only loss was in the state finals and decided because Essex played one team slightly closer that it's crazy that Chilowie is seen as a decidedly superior team. Make that make sense.

Good point. Calpreps is taking hundreds of scores to predict an outcome, not just 1 common opponent. That's why it's so powerful and accurate. If they say Essex loses by 25 and 25 points on two different occasions, the odds of them being wrong each time are 5 in 100. This means, the odds of them being wrong both times are 1 in 400.

As for Regions, and some stating this year about Honaker and weak Region D and not so good teams. Again, Calpreps thinks Honaker beats Essex by 1 pt right now. What does that tell you about Region D? It tells me Region D is no different than A, because Calpreps is taking thousands of scores and they can connect Honaker to Essex Multiple ways by teams they have played to where it reaches back to each team and they do that by thousands of scores. They can connect Rye Cove to West Point or Northumberland by hundreds of scores of a team Rye Cove played that may have played someone in Kentucky who played a team in Ohio, then WV, then Northern VA and down to Eastern VA and they can do that several times over with different teams. This is why it's so accurate. They aren't just pissingn in the wind and spitting out scores.

The fact that Essex plays in A and Honaker in D and both play mostly A and D opponents and that Calpreps predicts Honaker by 1 point tells you that Calpreps thinks Refion D is just as good as A, otherwise, they wouldn't favor Honaker. The fact that Calpreps basically has Honaker and Essex dead even probably says More about Regions A and D than it does Honaker and Essex.

I like Essex. Had them 1 from start of season and like them to finish as the champion.