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*** 2022 VHSL State Championship Schedule with NFHS Network Broadcast Links
We are set for State Championship Thursday in the 2022 VHSL Basketball Tournament. Before we get to our Predictions and Keys to Victory for the Class 3 and Class 4 matchups for the ladies and fellas, let's review how are prognostications are doing so far...
Hatfield's 2022 Boys State Tournament Total: 28-8 (77.8%), including 8-4 in State Semis
Hatfield's 2022 Girls State Tournament Total: 27-9 (75%), including 10-2 in State Semis
Hatfield's 2022 Region Playoff Total: 156-45 (77.6%)
Hatfield's 2021 Region Playoff Record: 109-24 (82%)
Hatfield's 2020 Postseason Record: 207-60 (77.5%)
Hatfield's 2019 Region Playoff Record: 139-56 (71.3%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Playoff Record: 12-6 (67%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Finals Record: 3-3 (50%)
Hatfield’s 2021 State Semis Record: 9-3 (75%)
Thursday, March 10, 2022 at VCU:
Session 1:
12:30 p.m. - Group 4 Girls Final – Millbrook (25-2) vs. King's Fork (23-3)
Watch on NFHS Network Here
Millbrook Keys:
#1 - Capitalize on Turnovers: They forced 34 vs. Pulaski County in their State Semis overtime win. But that game went to OT... they didn't win it in regulation with that many turnovers forced. So with that in mind, the Pioneers will need to score off the miscues of King's Fork for Erick Green's club to get a state title like they did in 2018 when they beat Lake Taylor to cap an undefeated run.
#2 - Shot Selection: Millbrook missed its first 11 field goal attempts vs. Pulaski. By game's end, they shot just 26-of-80 from the floor. That's not going to cut it against a team as athletic, speedy and physical as King's Fork, chomping at the bit for their first state title in girls basketball program history.
#3 - Second Unit Spark: This Millbrook team has won 11 in a row. To make it 12, they must get someone - or plural as in players - off the bench to provide a lift. Coach Green plans to play ten, so make each one count. This team has only suffered losses to Loudoun Valley and Tuscarora, both by six points apiece.
King's Fork Keys:
#1 - Handle O'Roke: That's Avery O'Roke, their star for Millbrook who dropped nine of her 30 points in overtime the last time out. The NJIT signee is averaging 22.6 points per game on the year and 26.5 the last four outings, raising her game to another level to complement Kennedi Rooks (17.1 PPG). If King's Fork fails to contain her, it could spell trouble.
#2 - 1-2 Punch: The Lady Bulldogs have a pretty terrific tandem of their own, one that Coach Maurice Fofana believes is the best backcourt combo in the state with 1000-point scorer Yasmine Brown (19.5 PPG, 4 RPG) and sophomore Cyriah Griffin (15 PPG, 7 APG), who helped Princess Anne win their eighth straight state title last year during her freshman campaign before transferring to the Suffolk school. Griffin is already receiving a boatload of Division I interest and offers. These two can prove Fofana right in this spot.
#3 - Avoid Foul Trouble: In some ways, this was the thing that cost them a big lead late in a heart-breaking loss to that nationally-ranked Monacan team, led by former UCONN star and WNBA player Megan Walker, a few years back in the State Finals. Putting Millbrook on the line, especially late, may be the undoing in a close game. Otherwise, this figures to be King's Fork's game to take because they have firepower beyond even the duo of Griffin and Brown with Niyah Gaston (16.8 PPG, 5 RPG), Arlisha Boston (14.8 PPG, 8 RPG, 4 APG) and Kiana Brittain (10 PPG, 9 RPG).
Hat's Pick: King's Fork 58-51
2:30 p.m. - Group 4 Boys Final - Loudoun County (23-6) vs. Varina (24-1)
Watch on NFHS Network Here
Varina Keys:
#1 - Run, Run & Run Some More: The Blue Devils are lethal in the open court with a lot of weapons in VCU commit Alphonzo 'Fats' Billups, Kennard Wyche Jr., football standouts like Anthony Fisher and Myles Derricott, among others. They want to test Loudoun County and see if they can keep up.
#2 - Impose Physicality: In the State Semis win over previously unbeaten King's Fork, Varina did not wilt and actually wore down the Bulldogs in a game that saw a combined 49 fouls and 66 free-throws. It's more than just the perimeter attack you have to worry about with Varina. Amari Baylor, another dual-sport athlete from football, and Christian Carden can do work in the paint. Those two along with Billups were sophomores on the team that fell to Green Run in the State Tournament quarterfinals and are very driven to finish the job.
#3 - Defend the 3: What does Loudoun County do well? Obviously to get to this point, it has to be plenty. It's a well-coached, disciplined and fundamentally-sound team under Mark Alexander. One of their strengths is shooting the basketball from long distance. On the year, the Captains have drained 187 three-pointers. Varina has to keep them in check in that area and it should be a comfortable win if they do what they've done all year, minus the loss to Class 5 finalist Highland Springs in the second of their two Capital District meetings.
Loudoun County Keys:
#1 - Keep it in the Half-Court: If the Raiders decide to play Varina's game and try to keep up in the open court, it'll be a recipe for disaster. They want to keep this one in the half-court for as much as possible of the 32 minutes. Getting out of the blocks well and maintaining will be paramount as well. This is a game LoCo wants in the 50's rather than the upper 60's or 70's, wherever Varina better thrives.
#2 - Take Care of the Basketball: Against King's Fork, the Blue Devils forced 17 turnovers. Conversely, Varina turned it over just seven times. Now, Loudoun County only turns it over 10.8 times per contest. They generally take care of the ball well. However, they have not seen a team with the type of athleticism all-around as Varina.
#3 - The Great Equalizer: What is it in postseason basketball? It's the three-point shot. As noted earlier, Loudoun County knocks down quite a few 3's. It has helped them win some big games, even rallying from 13 down in the fourth quarter to force overtime in the Region 4C Championship vs. Dulles District rival Loudoun Valley. Brendan Boyers, Nick Alexander, Joey Fitzpatrick and Jack West all have 28 or more made 3's on the year. Utilize them.
Hat's Pick: Varina 75-52
Session 2:
6:00 p.m. - Group 3 Girls Final - Carroll County (24-1) vs. Meridian (24-1)
Watch on NFHS Network Here
Carroll County Keys:
#1 - Feed Ervin: The best player on the floor is arguably 5-foot-9 sophomore guard Alyssa Ervin (19.2 PPG), who is related to a host of Southwest Virginia sports greats that includes and is not limited to former Gate City star Zac Ervin and Stacy Ervin. Alyssa has raised her numbers to 28 points per game in the playoffs and poured in 35 in the State Semis. There's definitely not a more explosive scoring weapon in this one than her.
#2 - Turn Meridian Over: Can Carroll County turn Meridian over consistently? That remains a big question because the Region 3B Champion Mustangs only commit 12.2 per contest. Carroll County needs to get that number to upwards of 15 and have it translates with buckets off those to greatly help their chances of winning their first state title.
#3 - Be Adaptable: Went back-and-forth and the proper phrasing of this from being versatile to flexible and really when it comes down to it, Marc Motley's Cavaliers bunch has to be willing to adjust. Whether it's with pressing, trapping, going to a man-to-man, zone defense or changing up something offensively if the circumstance requires it, as long as Carroll County embraces that then they should continue playing at the high level they have throughout the season.
Meridian Keys:
#1 - No Rebounds, No Rings: It's one of the oldest sayings in basketball. No rebounds and you won't win a ring. This is a Meridian squad that averages 33.9 rebounds per game and of their 13.7 offensive rebounds per game, there's something that really jumps out. Seven different Mustangs have 30 offensive rebounds this season.
#2 - Stay Unselfish: Some of the stats for these two teams are downright remarkable. The one that is most amazing to me is their margin this postseason. Meridian is winning by 40.8 points per game this postseason with the closest a affair being a 32-point win, 65-33, over Lakeland in the State Semis. Conversely, Carroll County is winning by 32 points per game since the start of regionals with its tightest battle being a 13-point victory, 67-54, over a Staunton River team that was 25-0. So what wins out? The team who is most unselfish. Mason has 445 assists this year, 17.8 per contest. Ithaca College commit Zoraida Icabalceta leads the way with 99.
#3 - Hit the 3-Point Shot: Of the 87 made 3's on the year for Meridian, which is shooting 32.1% from behind the arc, they've gotten 70 connections from two players: Icabalceta and Elizabeth Ceed, who averages 11.7 points and 5.8 rebounds a contest. This is a Carroll County team that can really score, as evidenced by their 106 points vs. Fort Defiance in the State Tournament quarterfinals that tied a school record from 1999. But their three-point game may not be overly lethal, so if Meridian knocks down some from the outside, that can be a potential difference.
Hat's Pick: Meridian 52-50 (OT)
8:00 p.m. - Group 3 Boys Final - Cave Spring (28-1) vs. Petersburg (22-3)
Watch on NFHS Network Here
Cave Spring Keys:
#1 - Establish Saunders Early & Often: The 6-foot-8 junior Dylan Saunders is a presence in the front-court, even if his numbers seem only a bit on the modest side to most at 13.3 points and six rebounds a contest. Five different players have scored in double-figures for Coach Jacob Gruse's Knights this postseason. Saunders had two games that stuck though with 25 points in the Region 3D title win over Northside and then hit for 22 in the 58-56 State Semis comeback win over Northside, where VMI baseball commit Bryce Cooper scored the winning bucket in the closing seconds on a lay-up.
#2 - Savvy > Grit: Certainly there may be more of a grittiness and feistiness to Petersburg than Cave Spring, but don't think the Knights are some pushover lacking those qualities. They're 28-1 riding a 24-game winning streak since that nail-biting 71-68 loss at home to Northside back on December 4th for a reason. It's a well-balanced, well-oiled machine. They have plenty of smarts and skill, too. This is where it needs to show, doubly, vs. a Crimson Wave team that will look to get rocking behind its massive following and crowd.
#3 - Dare Petersburg to Take 3's: Don't disrespect the Wave completely and leave multiple guys open time and time again. However, you want Petersburg to have to beat you with multiple 3's than easy 2's at the rim because Cave Spring has more shooters. Tylik Lawrence leads them in 3's with 27. As a group, the Wave have hit just 59 and shoot a mere 21.7% from deep. No on else has more than seven long range makes. So it's quite simple; use a zone and dare them to win it from behind the arc.
Petersburg Keys:
#1 - Transition Play: Who's the faster team that will thrive off the crowd most and convert easy buckets through fast-break points? That would most likely be Petersburg. So it would be wise for Coach Ryan Massenburg's Crimson Wave not to get stuck in a half-court mud fest and try to increase the tempo when the opportunities arise.
#2 - Don't Settle: By don't settle we mean for quick shots. Petersburg must play with that engine, be the aggressor and on the attack with decisiveness. That means going to the hole, attacking off the dribble and seeing if Cave Spring has the goods to handle them in one-on-one situations and athletically at all five spots on the floor. Keeping their stud in Chris Fields (18.5 PPG, 11.4 RPG), who entered the State Playoffs with 17 double-doubles, involved goes in that effort.
#3 - Make Free-Throws in Crunch Time: How many times over the years has Petersburg been haunted at the free-throw line at the Siegel Center in the State Playoffs? Whether they've had studs like Cadarian Raines, Chris Evans, Frank Mason or fill in the blank, there have been heart-breaking losses to the Dorian Finney-Smith led Norcom team and Anthony 'Cat' Barber led Hampton team in the title round as well as a State Semis loss to King's Fork. All are from Tidewater of course and some of these occasions Petersburg has come in without a blemish. Cave Spring shoots their free-throws well, but the Wave are at just 56.8% and only one guy - Jamari Garnett - is over 70%. To capture their first crown since Moses Malone's team in 1974, my hunch is it's going to take delivering at the charity stripe late.
Hat's Pick: Cave Spring 71-70
