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Richmond Football Forecast - Playoff Week 3

CRF4Dan

Richmond Region Football Writer
Staff
Dec 17, 2012
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Mechanicsville, VA
Two rounds of playoffs are over and in the Richmond Region we started with 19, then it was 12 and now its 5… Five teams left fighting just to stay in the pursuit for a state title… Of those five, two have state titles, another has been there but not won and the other two are looking to get there for the first time… Next week is state semifinal action throughout the state… Bird and Hermitage are no strangers to state semifinals but for James River, it would be their first trip should they beat Ocean Lakes. For Monacan, it's been nearly 30 years since they lost to Hampton in the state semifinals; for Petersburg it's been even longer, going back to 1979 when they beat Princess Anne on their way to a state title… We know one Richmond Region team will be playing next week, will there be another?


GAME OF THE WEEK

#4 LC Bird(10-2) at #3 Hermitage(12-0)
In 2000 Coach Bedwell arrived to Bird. A year later Coach Kane arrived to Hermitage. Three years later, these two teams met for the first time, it just so happened to come in the playoffs. The setting was the Division 6 Central Region Final, the site was Hermitage, the result was Bird a 15-13 victor. The two had to wait six years before they would meet again, this time at Bird and it was Hermitage with the win 17-14 on their way to a state title appearance in Division 6. Since that 2010 the Panthers and Skyhawks have met every season in the playoffs with the Skyhawks taking the last two.

Now the two are prepared to square off yet again. The Panthers have been a team on a mission this season after coming short to the Skyhawks the past two seasons. The Panthers season started off a little shaky with a narrow victory over Meadowbrook and then losing quarterback Rashad Robinson against Varina. Eli Odom performed admirably and the Panthers never missed a beat on offense in the absence of their signal caller as Johntae Wilson was able to carry the load, literally as he has a big season carrying the ball. While the offense has had no trouble scoring this season, the defense early on had trouble stopping teams allowing 62 points in their first two games compared to 102 in their last ten. The defense has gotten better in large part to the play of Jaden Miller, Dallas Carter-Taylor and a host of others. Of course, Hermitage plays in the Colonial District and the Colonials gets a bad rap sometimes because it's been weak in years past but this year it had more quality, winning teams than in years past with Douglas Freeman, Mills Godwin and Patrick Henry. That said, the district still gets labeled weak but weak or not, the Panthers have taken care of business and even beaten the playoff teams they've been dealt. A team such as Henrico that at one time this season was 7-0 and had a very good defense themselves. Then they had to face an undefeated Manchester team who they beat 40-28 and it wasn't even that close.

LC Bird on the other hand is a defending two-time state champion but this season saw a new face at quarterback for the Skyhawks with Jalen Elliott coming to Bird from Hanover. The season started with a hail mary win over rival Thomas Dale but midway through the season, Bird suffered their regular season loss in over two years and the season came to a close with another loss for the Skyhawks. While some felt like the mystique of the Skyhawks of the last couple of seasons was over, the fact is, those two losses could have gone the other way. The Skyhawks come up short of a first down that would have extended a potentially game winning drive against Lake Taylor and against Manchester, a "prayer" as it has been called by the Lancers thrown by Daniel Rose as time expired did in the Skyhawks regular season finale. In their first playoff game, they brought a halt to the Atlee Raiders explosive offense for a second straight season. Then on the road, at top-seeded and loaded Highland Springs, the Skyhawks defense came up with big plays and turnovers and kicker Keaton Riley came through when called upon to give the Skyhawks their eleventh straight win and keep the chance of three-peat still alive.

In three of the five previous games played between the two, the game was decided by four points or less. In the other two, it was a two touchdown difference. The games have been just as you expected from two of the top programs over this century… close and hard fought which is what I expect in this one. Hermitage would love the opportunity to avenge the past two seasons while bringing an end to Bird's title reign. Bird of course would love to get to the state semifinals for a third straight season as they look to three-peat. I've seen both teams play this year, Bird once and Hermitage twice. For me, Hermitage seems to have gotten better since I saw them against Meadowbrook and Varina. Bird obviously is the real deal if they can take down the top seed in Highland Springs. When I think of this game, I think it will come down to defense, who makes the bigger play… Can either team come up with a turnover late in the game to seal victory like Bird did this past week? Or maybe it's a goal line stand or a blocked field goal or PAT… As good as the two offenses are and they are good, defense wins championships and both teams with loaded defenses will lean on them to do just that, win… This season I've been high on two teams going into the season and during, Manchester and Hermitage… Hermitage is hungry to beat Bird, I believe they are a bit more loaded on the defensive side of the ball and I believe that will give them a slight edge in this one. Either team winning will not shock me, whoever wins has a very good shot at getting to the Finals but I like the Panthers in this one but in a nail biter.
Prediction: Hermitage 21, LC Bird 20


RICHMOND ROUNDOUT:

#3 Monacan(10-2) v. #2 Heritage-Newport News(11-1) at Todd Stadium
Twenty-nine years ago, Monacan reached the state semifinals in their first ever playoff appearance. That year as a four seed, they beat top-seeded Patrick Henry and Marshall-Walker before bowing out to the Hampton Crabbers. The Chiefs missed the playoffs for the next two years before going to back-to-back playoffs in 1988 and 1989 and in both years they were the four seed yet again upsetting top-seeded Varina & Mills Godwin before losing in the regional finals. They made it in 1990 for a third straight season but bowed out in the first round and over the next 23 years the Chiefs made the playoffs five more times and in each case, they lost including last year in Coach Henderson's first season at the helm of the Chiefs.

Now the Chiefs are the winner of two straight playoff games after an 8-2 campaign and are now 10-2. The only two blemishes on the Chiefs record are against Dominion heavyweights Manchester and LC Bird. The Chiefs have been defensive oriented this season and that is what carried them early on but the offense has come along as the season has gone on. Freshman Syour Fludd has had an excellent second half to the season and the run game has been just as effective. Beating Smithfield was one thing, beating Phoebus is another. The Phantoms might not be the "team" in the Eastern Region they were just a few short years ago but they are not to be taken lightly either and the fact that Monacan shut them out 35-0 says a lot about this Chiefs team. Heritage will present a stiffer challenge than the Phantoms.

The Hurricanes have just one loss on the season, that came to a Bethel team by three points. Heritage has scored no less than 12 points this season and other than that game against Woodside they have scored 20 or more in every contest. Furthermore, defensively they have allowed only three schools to score 20 or more points in a game. Malik Deloatch has had back-to-back 200+ yard passing games in the playoffs and the Chiefs will need to get to him often and stay glued to his receivers when he is able to get the ball off to prevent any sustained drives. If the defense of Monacan can do that plus limit the run game that is highlighted by Trasean Shackleford, Omar Martin and Timothy Holden-Bethea; the Chiefs will be in good position for another win. Furthermore they will need the offense to continue what they have done in the second half of the season with Syour Fludd throwing the ball and finding his receivers as well as establishing the run game themselves.

Can Monacan win? Yes… In fact, I believe they will. Heritage is a very good team but I believe this Chiefs defense is for real and I believe the combination of them and the offense making big plays when needed will be the difference in this game. I also believe playing in a better than expected Dominion District with the likes of Bird, Manchester, James River and Cosby has helped this team in terms of being battle tested. I don't expect a blowout or even a shutout like last week but I do think the Chiefs find a way to win in the end.
Prediction: Monacan 20, Heritage 17


#8 James River(8-4) at #1 Ocean Lakes(12-0)
For a second time in three years, Ocean Lakes find themselves playing a Dominion District team. This go around, it's a James River team that many never thought would be playing this late into November. Heck, at one time the Rapids were 1-3… anyone remember that? They beat Deep Run to open the season but then fell in three weeks to Douglas Freeman, Monacan and Bird… Two of those three are still playing themselves. Over the next six games, the Rapids fell just once, to Manchester but even at 6-4, their fate was not completely known. Had Varina beaten Highland Springs, the Rapids might have been outpointed and been at home. Instead, Varina lost, the Rapids won and they reached the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. As the eight seed, they traveled to CD Hylton and took down the top seed with their defense. They then beat a familiar foe in Cosby for the second time this season and this time it was both defense and offense coming through. The Rapids have surprised many but can they surprise the Dolphins?

Ocean Lakes is averaging 52 points a game. Last week against Kecoughtan they scored 39, that was the fewest they have scored all season! On top of that, they have only allowed double digit scores four times this season! This will no doubt be the toughest game of the Rapids season. The Rapids have a strong defense, they have guys such as Matt Duignam and Austin Wallace who had a monster game last week that can slow teams down but can the Rapids slow down this kind of offense? And if they cannot, can the offense keep up with the Dolphins? The Rapids have Quintreil Chung who ran the ball quite well last year and this year but he has also had to play quarterback this season. He will need to rely on his legs and run game if he cannot find a receiver and he will need to rely on his receivers to help open the running game. If the defense cannot slow down the Dolphins and the offense cannot keep pace, this one could get away from the Rapids quickly.

That is why I feel the beginning of this game will give us a good indication of how the game will go and who will win. If the Rapids can limit the big play capabilities of the Dolphins and slow the offense down some, they have a chance… If the Rapids cannot move the ball, if they cannot score to keep pace with the Dolphins or eat up clock and keep the Ocean Lakes offense off the field and given the defense a chance to catch their breath, then it's a long game for the Rapids we are looking at. As much as I would like to see the Rapids win, I feel they are in store for a long one. I do believe the Dolphins go on the attack early on to not only wear the Rapids defense out early but to put the offense in a hole they are unable to overcome. Of course the Rapids have surprised us thus far this postseason so don't count them out just yet but Ocean Lakes is no Hylton or Cosby and are better offensively than any of the teams that beat the Rapids this season.

In the end, Ocean Lakes is too much and the Rapids dream season comes to an end.
Prediction: Ocean Lakes 31, James River 16


#12 Petersburg(6-6) at #1 Lafayette(12-0)
The Crimson Wave is the lowest seeded team alive in any class of the VHSL playoffs… They are facing a Lafayette team that is undefeated and just crushed a Hopewell team that Petersburg is all too familiar with. Is this the point where the Wave crashes or can they keep it going?

At 6-6, one could look at this matchup and say the Wave will be crushed but the Wave has won three straight and put up big numbers in the past two games. Those big numbers in large part are due to the playoff ODU-commit Gemonta Jackson who assumed the role of QB this season and is back and healthy after missing some action due to injury. Gemonta and the offense have been rolling over the last three games and his supporting cast of Tye Freeland and Chris Thompson have done nothing short of excel in each game. There is no doubts that the Wave will put up points but Petersburg cannot rely on winning a shootout as they are 2-2 in those type of games this season. If the Wave are to be successful, the defense will need to come through for the Wave.

The defense this year has allowed more points than the offense has scored. The fewest points allowed in a single game this season came against Huguenot and even the Falcons scored 12. Evident by the 59-0 shutout of Hopewell, the Rams can score and they can score quickly and often. That would be my biggest concern if I'm the Wave going into this one, how can we keep the Rams from scoring.

If the Wave are going to beat the Rams, it's going to take breaking apart that tough offensive line that allowed the Ram quarterback Brendan McGinty time to throw three touchdowns as well as paved the way for the run game of the Rams. If the Wave can challenge that line, even break it and get pressure on McGinty or get to the backs, the Wave have a chance. That's easier said than done mind you.

Defense will be what the Rams will be trying to win at as well as they will be looking to get to Gemonta much as they did against Hopewell. Lafayette relied heavily Daquan Jacobs and Matt Hummell in their win Friday night and they will do so again. The Rams scored on a fumble return and a blocked punt. The Wave will need to protect the ball at all costs.

Petersburg plays in a tough district with the likes of Dinwiddie and Thomas Dale but this by far is the toughest opponent the Wave will have met this season. It will take a complete game from both the offense and defense to win it. I would love to see another team playing next week from the Richmond Region but in the end, I believe the Rams just will be too much for the Wave. The Wave might keep it close early on but expect Lafayette to be playing that first weekend of December and not the Wave.
Prediction: Lafayette 35, Petersburg 24



EXTRA POINTS
I will be covering the LC Bird-Hermitage matchup this week. This will be my third time seeing the Panthers's in action this season and second seeing Bird. Just from the previous three games I've seen, I'd give the edge to Bird.

Monacan has ten wins for the first time in the programs history. Before their win over Phoebus to get them to ten, they had won 9 games twice; 1985 and 2003.

Until they put up 46 on Kettle Run and 56 on Poquoson, the most Petersburg had scored in a playoff game was 35 in 1978 when they beat George Wythe in the AAA Central Region Semifinal.

If James River wins this weekend, they will tie their mark of 2000 when they won 9 games. Furthermore if they score 29 points they tie their mark of 2000 for most points in a season.

Bird faces Hermitage for a sixth time but tying Herm with Thomas Dale who the Skyhawks have faced six times. Neither is the team the Skyhawks have faced most in the playoffs, that belongs to Varina who they have faced eight times and Highland Springs is second with seven meetings.

Hermitage is 6-5 at home in the playoffs under Coach Kane but 1-2 at home against Bird in the playoffs.

Heritage is 3-1 against the Richmond Region in the playoffs with their only loss coming to Dinwiddie last season.

Ocean Lakes only game against a team from the Richmond Region was their Division 6 Finals meeting with Bird in 2012 in which they lost.

Lafayette has never lost to a Richmond Region team in the playoffs having beaten Huguenot and Hopewell this season and beating Highland Springs way back in 1973.

Happy Thanksgiving to all; players, coaches and fans... Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving and enjoy the games Friday and Saturday.


If you would like to get text updates from games I'm covering and other games in the area, you may follow me on twitter at CRF4Dan or you may e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com with your cell number and I can add you to the list of many I exchange scores with.
 
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