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Richmond Football Forecast - Week 3

CRF4Dan

Richmond Region Football Writer
Staff
Dec 17, 2012
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Mechanicsville, VA
For many this marks the final week of out-of-district play… Some are off to stellar starts; some are off to starts they would like to forget… This week is one last shot to fine tune the teams before entering district play but what an interesting week to do so… Two games feature winless teams so someone will finally break into the win column and there are three games featuring undefeated teams playing one another. This could be a huge week for some or a week some would like to have back… Then you have the annual Varina-Hermitage clash which few know what to expect… As always, it will be a fun Friday night in the Richmond Region.


GAME OF THE WEEK
LC Bird(3-0) at Manchester(2-0)
They might be in different classes this go around but these two Dominion District rivals definitely want this one. LC Bird is off to an impressive 3-0 start allowing just one touchdown in three games. Manchester who had questions coming into the season is off to a 2-0 start behind an offense that has been rather explosive. Can the Lancers offense be that explosive against the toughest defense perhaps in the history of Bird? That’s a whole other story…

The Lancer offense will find it tough to overcome this defense. Brendan Clark, a freshman quarterback could have used a few more games before having to face the vaunted Skyhawks defense. They will be out to rattle him and force him into some turnovers or if nothing else, just make him a little hesistant when that ball is snapped. It will also be difficult for the Lancers defense to run on the Skyhawks, no team has been able to do so yet this season.

On the flip side, Manchester’s defense gave up quite a bit to Matoaca just two weeks ago and LC Bird is no Huguenot, getting a shutout against them won’t be happening. LC Bird put on an offensive show of force against Midlothian and you can never bet against the Skyhawks run game. Of course the run game has been the dominant factor on offense this season for the Skyhawks so if the defense of Manchester can take the run game away (easier said than done) the Lancers will force the Skyhawks into a passing game that really hasn’t been tested yet. We all know Jalen Elliott is quite the athlete and can throw the ball but everyone knows that the run is where it’s at.

Can vengeance spur a team to victory? I like to think so, I know from the standpoint of a fan, you always want to beat a team that has beaten you and last year the Lancers got the best of Bird on a last second hail mary in the final regular season of the game… The two didn’t have a chance for a rematch as Hermitage ousted Manchester from the playoffs before that could happen so now the two meet again and don’t think the Skyhawks have forgotten that loss.

That loss was just their fourth loss to Manchester in the series and Manchester has never won back-to-back meetings against the Skyhawks and I don’t think it’s going to happen this year. LC Bird is a favorite to win another state title for a reason and that defense is lights out, the run game is second to none in the region and perhaps the state. Manchester is a good team, don’t get me wrong and they will make noise the rest of the season and come playoff time but there are just few teams in the region or state that will be able to matchup with the Skyhawks.
Prediction: LC Bird 38, Manchester 10


RICHMOND ROUNDOUT
Hanover(2-0) at Hopewell(2-0)
There were a few games that could have been game of the week and this is one of them. This pits two 2-0 teams against one another in a game that while in different classes has playoff seeding implications for both. For Hanover, they are a team that has questions… They topped a Dinwiddie team in week one in a bit of a high scoring affair between the two but in doing so they lost their quarterback Clayton Cheatham to injury. Last week, Marcus Bazala stepped in to the quarterback role and had a Clayton-esque type game scoring on the ground and in the air. That was against Tucker though, this will be Bazala’s toughest opponent yet and if he is unable to have another solid game, will his replacement at the running back position Ben Mahone be able to handle the load in the ground game? For Hopewell on the other hand, the Blue Devils are riding high after two wins to open their season; first against Tabb and then against Powhatan. On both accounts the offense and defense have played well and Cameren Hill is looking legit and the Blue Devils as a whole are backing up their contender status in 3A. Hanover leads the series 2-1 but the two have split their last two meetings with Hanover on top last season. Somethings gotta give, someone’s gotta give and this go around, I think it will be the Hawks in a close one.
Prediction: Hanover 27, Hopewell 24

Varina(1-1) at Hermitage(2-0)
I am giving the Blue Devils the benefit of the doubt… They didn’t have their best game against Thomas Dale but like Bird against Dale, I don’t think Varina is as bad as they looked in that game or the score indicated for that matter. Fact is Hermitage and Varina always is a hard fought game and this season should be no different. The Blue Devils haven’t had much success over the last year but a win here would change that quickly. For Hermitage however it’s just business as usual, if they win they are 3-0 heading into district play albeit they still play Manchester down the road in an out-of-district contest. This is just what Herm does, they win, even when there are questions about the makeup of the team and there were questions surrounding the run game coming into this season but they beat a tough Highland Springs team to open the season and then beat Meadowbrook. The week off might make them a little rusty which could play into Varina’s favor but I don’t think that will be the case. This one comes down to Herm’s defense v. Varina’s run… If Varina is unable to get the run going as was the case last week, a long night is in store for the Blue & Gold but if they are and if there defense can play better than last week, then this game becomes a little tighter. Hermitage has 6 out of the last 7 in this series but Varina still leads it 14-9. I think that lead gets shorter after this one.
Prediction: Hermitage 24, Varina 14


ROUND RICHMOND
Atlee(2-0) at Douglas Freeman(2-0)
Last year was a bit lopsided but since Coach Henderson arrived to Freeman this has been a budding rivalry. This year the two meet as undefeateds as they have done before only different this time is that while both are in 5A, Atlee is north, Freeman is South. Starting 3-0 will be huge for either school as they enter district play. Atlee has the more explosive defense but the Rebels are packing a pretty good defense. Douglas Freeman leads series 12-10 and the Raiders only have three wins at Freeman. I expect this one to be like earlier matchups, not like last season.
Prediction: Atlee 28, Douglas Freeman 20

Caroline(0-3) at Thomas Jefferson(0-3)
Two teams looking for a win to turn around their seasons… This is the first meeting of these two schools since 2008 and the Vikings only have two wins in the series trailing 11-2 with their last win in 2004. The Vikings won’t find this game any easier than the previous as the Cavaliers have shown they can score points albeit, not so much against Dinwiddie. I’d like to see the Vikings take this one but I believe Caroline will be the first in the win column.
Prediction: Caroline 35, Thomas Jefferson 17

Clover Hill(0-2) at Monacan(3-0)
The Cavaliers are a team hunting, the Chiefs are a team hurting. Hurting as Syour Fludd, their sophomore quarterback was injured in their game against Cosby. The Chiefs lead the series 21-12-1 and Clover Hill’s last win in the series was 2011 but without Fludd, this could be the Cavaliers best chance to snag that first win. Make no mistake about it however the Chiefs with or without Fludd will be formidable and still dangerous, especially in the ground game and on defense.
Prediction: Monacan 31, Clover Hill 12

Cosby(0-3) at Midlothian(0-3)
Good news for one of these teams, they will have their first win of the season. Bad news is one team will be 0-4 to start the season. The Titans have been close to victory a couple of times this season, just two weeks ago they had it up until the whistle blew. The Titans are not an 0-3 team, they just haven’t had an easy schedule and neither has Midlothian for that matter. Midlothian’s only win in the series was 2010, the Titans own the series 7-1 and it’s hard to imagine that will change this go around. Count on the Titans banging out a win.
Prediction: Cosby 21, Midlothian 10

Deep Run(0-2) at Essex(3-0)
Believe it or not this is the first time the Wildcats have played a team outside the Richmond Region since Thomas Edison in the 2006 Division 5 State Semifinal… It’s been a while to say the least. It’s been longer since Essex played a team from within the Richmond Region, 1979 to be exact. That season, Essex and Monacan played to a 0-0 tie. The Wildcats are hungry for a win but Essex is off to a 3-0 start for a reason, they are not to be taken lightly and this one will not be a tie but I don’t think it’s going to be a win for the Wildcats either.
Prediction: Essex 27, Deep Run 14

George Wythe(0-2) at Powhatan(1-1)
Although these two have never met, the Bulldogs have faced Jefferson District teams four times and in four previous meetings, they haven’t won yet… Powhatan is a perennial power in 4A and after a loss to Hopewell last week, they are going to be hungry for a win as opposed to falling to 1-2 against a team that over the last decade has been one of the if not the worst team in the state. I expect this one to be lopsided and for the Indians to get that second win.
Prediction: Powhatan 49, George Wythe 6

James River(1-1) at Huguenot(1-2)
Two teams moving in different directions early on in the season. Huguenot started strong with a win but have dropped two straight. James River on the other hand started off with a loss and then bounced back with a win of their own in shutout fashion. This game has been played 21 times with the Rapids holding a 1 game edge… The Falcons last win in series was 2006 and while the Falcons might have experience this season, the Rapids do as well, particularly on defense and it will just be a tough matchup for the Falcons to take this one. Falcons keep it close for a quarter but this one gets away from them.
Prediction: James River 28, Huguenot 10

James Monroe(2-1) at Petersburg(2-0)
The Yellow Jackets visit the Richmond Region for a second time this season, in fact, within the Central District yet again. This is the third meeting of the two programs but the Wave have yet to find victory and even in a loss this season to Dinwiddie the Yellow Jackets put up some points. In their last meeting at Petersburg, the Wave were shutout. Can the Wave get that first win against James Monroe and improve to 3-0? They have a team capable of staying with the Yellow Jackets but it will fall on the defense to keep James Monroe from scoring.
Prediction: James Monroe 31, Petersburg 24

John Marshall(1-1) at Prince George(1-1)
Albeit early, this could have implcations playoff wise for both teams. For the Justices, a win here and suddenly they are 2-1 going into district play where another win or two should be enough to make the playoffs in 3A. A loss however makes things iffy to say the least. The same goes for the Royals playing in 5A where there is little room for error in making the playoffs. Finding three wins in district play is possible, finding four wins if you wall to 1-2, that’s a bit more difficult. Marshall came up big Monday against the Wildcats, can they sustain that level of play or will the Royals offense bounce back in a big way? The Royals have won the last two meetings to take a 5-3 lead in the series.
Prediction: Prince George 28, John Marshall 20

JR Tucker(0-2) at Henrico(2-0)
Henrico has won the last two meetings outscoring the Tigers 64-7 and given the Warriors impressive start to this season, a similar outcome is not out of the question. Henrico is rising from sleeper to contender in 5A with a defense that has only allowed 12 points in two games whereas the offense has scored 95. The Warriors can hurt you in a variety of ways and that will be a problem for a Tucker team that you can score on and hasn’t put up a lot of points thus far. Expect another big win for the Warriors in this in a series they lead 23-7.
Prediction: Henrico 42, JR Tucker 7

Lee-Davis(2-0) at Glen Allen(0-2)
Two teams moving in different directions to start the season. The two were similar in record last year but the Confederates have bounced back in a big way this season with a team heavy in returning starters and experience and it is showing. Glen Allen is a team that has not scored yet and I don’t think that will continue but I don’t look for the Jaguars to get that first win against the Confederates, not the way they are playing on offense where everything seems to be clicking. The Confederates lead the series 4-0 but this is the first meeting between the two as out-of-district opponents. Expect the Confederates to get off to a 3-0 start.
Prediction: Lee-Davis 27, Glen Allen 7

Mills Godwin(0-2) at Patrick Henry(2-0)
This is a tale of two teams with completely different records meeting for the 29th straight season but as out-of-district opponents this go around… Their records might not be truly reflective of their teams… Patrick Henry is 2-0 but has played two winless teams and Godwin is 0-2 have lost to two teams who are still undefeated… Godwin last week nearly upset Atlee but lost it in the end. They are hungry for a win and they need it, falling to 0-3 would be harmful to their playoff aspirations this season. For the Patriots, starting 3-0 would be huge going into their first Capital District slate where wins might not come so easy. If the Eagles are to win, it’s going to take another game such as last week with the run and Patrick Henry just needs to keep doing what they have done thus far this season. Godwin has won the last four meetings but it’s the Patriots who lead the series 17-11.
Prediction: Mills Godwin 21, Patrick Henry 17

Southampton(1-1) at Colonial Heights(1-1)
A battle of 3A-East teams that have playoff aspirations, this is one both these teams want. The Colonials could honestly be 0-2 but a comeback win against New Kent in their opener gave the Colonials much optimism but a loss to Park View has them back at square one… The Colonials in 3A have little room for error, two wins just doesn’t guarantee you anything and going into the district slate next week, this is a must win truth be told. The Colonials have a ground game that can win but that ground game was contained for the most part last week. If Southampton’s defense can do what Park View did, game over for the Colonials.
Prediction: Colonial Heights 28, Southampton 10


EXTRA POINTS
Last week I was 16-2 in my predictions snapping my two week streak of only one loss, I can only hope I can maintain this level of success as for the season I am 43-4.

Patrick Kane recently became the winningest coach at Hermitage. One thing many fans do not realize is that with the level of success Bird has had in recent years, Coach Bedwell is 178 wins, just 14 wins away from Coach Williams of rival Thomas Dale of course and 50 wins from tying Coach Ray Long for most wins in the Richmond(Central) Region.

While Kane has now won 138 games and counting at Hermitage, it’s easy to forget that he had a stint at Dinwiddie where he was 6-14 from 1996-1997. Couple that with his record at Hermitage and Kane now sits tied with Coach McFee of Huguenot and could pass Coach Parker of Dinwiddie & Prince George as well as Salmon of Clover Hill before the end of the year. Kane is the second winningest active coach in the Richmond Region behind only Bedwell.

Your Top 5 winningest active coaches in the Richmond Region are:
Bedwell at LC Bird with 178
Kane at Hermitage and previously Dinwiddie with 142
Hall at Manchester with 107
Mills at Dinwiddie with 83
O’Hare at Clover Hill with 71

I always welcome feedback from the fans and readers as well as suggestions so feel free to e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com and you may also follow me on twitter at @CRF4Dan.

If you feel there was a player at the game you were at this fall that deserves to be recognized for his play, e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com with your case for why that player should be one of the Richmond Gamers for the week.
 
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