RICHMOND FOOTBALL FORECAST: Week 9!
If we learned anything last week, it’s that just when you think you got it all figured out, you do not! This week’s schedule features a few standout games but for the most part, the games lack a certain punch we have seen over the past couple of weeks and what we will see next week. At this stage of the season, it’s about fine tuning your team for the playoffs, getting the best seeding you can and for those who do not have the postseason to look forward to, it’s all about playing spoiler or seeing what you have for 2016. 2016 however is the last thing we want to think about as we inch closer to the playoffs.
Keep in mind, the numbers in front of the schools names are their Richmond Region Ranking(my ranking that is). Also keep in mind all stats presented are from 1970 to present day.
GAME OF THE WEEK
#9 Mancheter(6-2) at #4 Monacan(8-1)
One of two meetings this week featuring two schools ranked in my top ten, this one has obvious playoff ramifications. The Lancers head to Monacan in a game they need to win to hold on to a home playoff game. The Chiefs on the other hand are a team that is closing out there regular season a week before everyone else does. Monacan also has a lot to play for in this one given the fact that they are currently a third seed and if Hanover slips in their final two games, Monacan could move up.
Monacan comes into this one obviously healthier than Manchester who has lost several players due to injury such as their quarterback and running back. Monacan of course has been there themselves having played a few games without quarterback Syour Fludd in the middle of the season. It was during that time that the Chiefs lost to LC Bird, one two teams that Manchester has lost to. Combined the three teams these two have lost to are undefeated; Hermitage and LC Bird.
As I said, Manchester is hurting from injuries but like all good teams, they have players who step up. Kionte Hamlet has been that at the quarterback position and Frank Boyd performed quite well this past week running the ball.
The Lancers can put up some points, they have proven that in just about every game minus the Bird game mind you and Monacan can do that as well when Syour Fludd is healthy and they have a pretty good defense as well. I honestly don’t know who wins this one, I could see it going both ways… My gut tells me Monacan but I never count out the Lancers. In fact the Lancers lead the series 17-14 with Monacan’s last win in the series having been 2007. Is this the year for Monacan?
Prediction: Manchester 28, Monacan 18
RICHMOND ROUNDOUT
#8 Hopewell(6-2) at #7 Thomas Dale(6-2)
Before last week I would have said this was a slam dunk win for the Knights. Then last week happened, the Blue Devils shutout Matoaca and Thomas Dale fell to Meadowbrook. The challenge here for Thomas Dale is can they bounce back from their second loss of the year like they did after their first loss against LC Bird? Both teams have quite a bit to play for, Hopewell moved up to the top seed in 3A this week whereas Thomas Dale holds put as the second seed in 6A. A win for either keeps them in great position for the playoffs but a loss would hurt. Hopewell proved last week it can score in a variety of ways, with a variety of players but the Knights have shown they have a tough defense and that will be the matchup to watch, Hopewell’s offense versus Thomas Dale’s defense. If the Blue Devils are unable to find success against Thomas Dale’s defense, then I believe the Knights take it but if they are, I think the Blue Devils could take this one. Thomas Dale leads the series 26-14-1 but the Blue Devils last win came back in 2012.
Prediction: Thomas Dale 24, Hopewell 21
#6 Lee-Davis(7-1) at #10 Henrico(6-2)
Every week there seems to be a marquee matchup in the Capital District and this week is no different. The Confederates rebounded from their first loss of the season last week with a win over Hanover while Henrico dropped their second game of the season, this one against Highland Springs, the team that also handed Lee-Davis their first loss. This is a huge game for both teams as they fight for seeding in the 5A-South playoffs. Henrico has dropped to sixth in seeding whereas Lee-Davis is holding put at 4th. A win for either will certainly boost their seeding but a loss for either would hurt, Henrico particularly. Henrico’s offense has been up and down this season but the defense has been strong, even last week against the Springers they only allowed 21, the fewest for the Springers since the Hermitage game. Therein lies the matchup to watch in this one, Henrico’s defense against the Lee-Davis offense that has shined this season. If Henrico’s defense cannot make any headway against the Confederates, I don’t believe the Hawks win on offense alone. Lee-Davis leads the series 26-19 with Henrico having won last years meeting.
Prediction: Lee-Davis 21, Henrico 14
ROUND RICHMOND
#5 Highland Springs(7-1) at #18 Patrick Henry(4-4)
The Patriots won the last two meetings in 2001 and 2002, both those meetings came in the playoffs. This one is a game Patrick Henry needs to keep their playoff hopes alive this season but truth be told they will be the underdog in this one for sure. The Springers have more weapons on offense and the defense has just gotten better and better as the season has gone on. The Patriots on the other hand have struggled against the better teams in the area. With the Springers having posted four shutouts in their last five games, the Patriots will have their work cut out for them. Despite losses in their last two meetings the Springers lead the series 17-7.
Prediction: Highland Springs 38, Patrick Henry 10
#21 Mills Godwin(3-5) at #3 Douglas Freeman(8-0)
Mills Godwin is one of two teams standing in the way of an undefeated Douglas Freeman team playing an undefeated Hermitage team in the final week of the season. Freeman early on in the season appeared to be a team whose strength was on defense but as the season has unfolded their offense has gotten better. Mills Godwin on the other hand has struggled all season and even if they had not, they have two losses in the last two meetings with the Rebels. Believe it or not however, Freeman only has 7 wins in the previous 32 meetings but clearly there has been a shift in power. Freeman is close to doing what no Rebels team has done since 1977, I don’t believe they let this one slip away.
Prediction: Douglas Freeman 27, Mills Godwin 13
#16 Varina(4-4) at #15 Atlee(4-4)
Two teams needing wins… With Highland Springs looming next week, the Blue Devils need a win not only to keep their faint playoff hopes alive but also to ensure themselves of not posting another losing season. Atlee is in need of a win as well, they cannot afford many more losses as the Raiders are seeded 13th in the 5A-North playoffs currently. Both teams have been in consistent this season, one week they look good, one week not so much. Varina leads the series 17-7 but it’s the Raiders who have won the last two putting an end to the dominance that Varina once had in this series. If Varina is to win they will need a big game from their defense, otherwise Varina’s offense will not be able to keep up with Atlee.
Prediction: Atlee 31, Varina 21
#32 Huguenot(1-7) at #1 LC Bird(8-0)
LC Bird leads this series 24-5… For many fans and players a like, it’s hard to imagine that this was once a big game in the 90’s but those days are long gone. Huguenot’s last win in the series was 2006, nearly a decade ago and after opening the season with a win, they have been unable to get back there. Ironically enough their best chance for a second win will come in the final game of the season. This is the most lopsided of meetings this week. Few teams have scored on Bird this season and Huguenot has struggled all season to win and score at times. LC Bird will probably go up early and put in backups in the second half but even then Huguenot will be overmatched.
Prediction: LC Bird 56, Huguenot 0
#31 Glen Allen(1-7) at #2 Hermitage(8-0)
These two have met once before, back in 2011, Hermitage of course won that matchup, just as they should in this one. Sure Glen Allen got their first win last week but it came against Thomas Jefferson and while the Jaguars are not as bad as their record, the Panthers are one of the best in the region and will not be caught looking ahead to Freeman. Eli Odom has been perhaps the hottest quarter back in the region in the second half of the season and Glen Allen’s defense will have a tough time against the Panther offense. This one could get out of hand early with Glen Allen scoring late.
Prediction: Hermitage 45, Glen Allen 10
#22 Colonial Heights(3-5) at #12 Matoaca(5-3)
It wasn’t that long ago that Matoaca had just one loss this season but suddenly they are 5-3. The Warriors will be looking to put an end to that skid against a team they not lost to since 1991! The Warriors need this win in terms of playoff seeding. They won’t be able to get a home game but they are in a battle with Henrico and Meadowbrook for the bottom three spots and with Thomas Dale next week, they can ill afford to drop this one. Colonial Heights on the other hand has just as much to play for, they are a five seed currently and if they could pull off an upset here, it would be huge for their chances of moving up in the seeding. Regardless of what happens in this one, both are making the playoffs. Matoaca’s offense was red hot earlier this season but that seems to have cooled and their defense has not been their strength by any stretch. If the defense cannot contain Darien Canada who had made teams pay this season, it could be an upset in store for us but I don’t believe that will be the case. I think Matoaca gets back on track heading into their finale with Thomas Dale. The Warriors lead the series 35-10-1, after this one, make it 36-10-1.
Prediction: Matoaca 42, Colonial Heights 17
#23 Prince George(3-5) at #14 Meadowbrook(4-4)
The year was 2002, at that time Meadowbrook had just one playoff appearance in the history of the program, the same as Prince George. That was the last time the Royals won in this series and since that time Meadowbrook has won a state championship and become a playoff contender year in and year out. The Monarchs need this one as they battle Varina for that final playoff spot as well as battling Henrico and Matoaca for one of those bottom three seeds. The Monarchs pulled off a bit of a surprise last week topping Matoaca. After a rough start to the season the Monarchs are getting stronger here at the end of the season. Prince George’s season mirrors so many of their seasons, nice start, rough midstretch and then they get a couple of wins in the end to get to 3-7/4-6. In this one I think it’s whose offense is better and I believe that to be Meadowbrook right now. The Monarchs lead the series 22-14-1 having won 12 straight, make it 13!
Prediction: Meadowbrook 35, Prince George 13
#11 Hanover(5-3) at #26 Armstrong(2-6)
If trends tell us anything, it’s that Hanover will win this one… Armstrong hasn’t won a district game yet this season and Hanover has not had back-to-back wins or losses for that matter in the district slate which means Hanover should win this one after their loss last week. Even without the trend, the Hawks should roll in this one. The Wildcats defense will have a tough time limiting the Hawks run game and the Wildcats offense has struggled for much of the season. An upset would be huge for Armstrong as they hang on to the seven seed in 3A-East playoff picture, the Wildcats do not want to get into a situation where they are in a ratings battle in the finale next week. Hanover also needs to keep winning so they can maintain their second seed in 4A-East. The Hawks lead the series 9-3, have not lost to the Wildcats since 2005 but that was before the Hawks became the winning program we know it to be now.
Prediction: Hanover 45, Armstrong 12
#13 Dinwiddie(5-3) at #25 Petersburg(2-6)
Petersburg has lost the last eight meetings with Dinwiddie and their last six games this season, clearly the odds are not in the Wave’s favor. The Wave will have their hands full in this one as their defense attempts to slow down the offense of Dinwiddie that can put up points quickly, example being last week. Dinwiddie’s weakness is their defense but Petersburg has struggled regardless of who they played this season and Dinwiddie is not just anyone, despite three losses they are a contender. I don’t expect a blowout in this one but I do believe the Generals will take this one convincingly. The Generals lead the series 27-18-2 and will snag another victory as they look to improve their seeding for the playoffs while dealing a blow to Petersburg’s playoff seeding and hopes.
Prediction: Dinwiddie 42, Petersburg 17
#20 James River(3-5) at #24 Clover Hill(2-6)
Two teams fighting for pride at this point in the season as neither appears destined for a playoff this season. One win is the difference in their records this season as it’s been a struggle for both to compete with the better teams they have faced. Their wins this season have come against Huguenot, George Wythe and for James River Midlothian; teams who have a combined win total of 3! James River has won three straight in the series but it’s the Cavaliers with the series lead 12-9 but this one honestly could go either way. If Davod Wilkins can run the ball against James River I like the Cavaliers chances but if not, I believe it will be James River all the way.
Prediction: James River 24, Clover Hill 23
#27 Thomas Jefferson(2-6) at #19 JR Tucker(3-5)
Tucker might have the better record, might have the better ranking but it’s the Vikings that have more to lose in this one. The Vikings are currently outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs but a win in this one would help as time is running out. TJ like so many are not as bad as their record might indicate, it’s just tough for city schools to compete with bigger schools, that’s a problem that goes back to the old alignment. The same however can be said about Tucker, they are not as bad as their 3-5 record might indicate. Keep in mind the Tigers had Hermitage down earlier this season 16-0 but couldn’t hold. The Vikings bring experience, the Tigers bring Taj Conway who can run the ball and a defense that is solid. The Tigers would love to play spoiler and with TJ this week and Glen Allen next week it’s entirely possible the Tigers could finish 5-5. TJ only has five wins in the series trailing 24-5 and last beat the Tigers in 2007. Look for Tucker to inch closer to 5-5 and deal a blow to TJ’s playoff hopes.
Prediction: JR Tucker 33, Thomas Jefferson 16
#33 George Wythe(0-8) at #17 Cosby(4-4)
Cosby owns this series 8-0 and ironically enough the Bulldogs are 0-8 this season which means the Bulldogs chances are slim to none in this one. Cosby had a few tough losses early in the season such as the Matoaca game, at 4-4 they are fighting to remain in the 6A South playoffs, currently a seven seed. A win here won’t earn them a ton of points but a win is a win and a win keeps them headed for a third straight playoff appearance. For George Wythe a win here would be the biggest in a decade for the Bulldogs but like so many city schools playing in 3A, against a 6A team that is deeper and more talented, the odds are not in their favor. The Bulldogs will face an uphill battle from the start and Cosby should win this one convincingly.
Prediction: Cosby 42, George Wythe 6
#30 Deep Run(1-7) at #28 John Marshall(2-6)
If John Marshall is to have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since the 1992 season, they will need a win here. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Justices get a win here. The quarterback position is solid and the offense as a whole has put up points often this season and has some close losses. Like so many, the Justices are not as bad as 2-6 might indicate. Deep Run’s season has been another long one, just one win this season in a season that saw a change in coaching earlier this season. A win would be huge for the Wildcats in a season that has had few highlights. If John Marshall does however win, it would be their first win in the series; the Wildcats own the series 12-0. I could see this one going either way but I think John Marshall sneaks out a win here keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Prediction: John Marshall 21, Deep Run 20
EXTRA POINTS
Last week I was 12-4 in my predictions as I have averaged 12 wins a week this season. Speaking of the season I am 129-27.
Ironic don’t you think that fans of UVA have been calling for London to be fired for a few seasons now yet he remains having not a lot to show for. Yet at Virginia Tech, with all that Beamer has done at Tech, you get the feeling they are ready for a change. For the record, I think we will see new head coaches at both next season.
In a season where changes at coaching in the college ranks has been crazier than ever happening during the season for a variety of reason, it makes you wonder what is in store this season in the Richmond Region. Coach Davis at Deep Run resigned earlier this season, Coach Meeks has stepped in to lead the Wildcats the rest of the season but what happens once the season is over?
After the 2014 season we had 4 coaching changes, the three seasons prior; 2011-2013 we had six each year! 2005 and 2010 are the only seasons since 2000 that we did not have a change after the season. Other than those two seasons we have had at least three changes each year since the 2000 season so odds are there will be more changes after the season.
So what schools have had the most changes since 2000? George Wythe has had 8 changes, JR Tucker has had 5 and Deep Run, Henrico & Lee-Davis have had 4. Those are your top five.
For those who might question the rankings… There is a formula used in my rankings but first and foremost, record takes precedence over anything else. That’s what I have stuck by ever since I’ve been doing rankings back in 2001.
I always welcome feedback from the fans and readers as well as suggestions so feel free to e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com and you may also follow me on twitter at @CRF4Dan.
If you feel there was a player at the game you were at this fall that deserves to be recognized for his play, e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com with your case for why that player should be one of the Richmond Gamers for the week.
If we learned anything last week, it’s that just when you think you got it all figured out, you do not! This week’s schedule features a few standout games but for the most part, the games lack a certain punch we have seen over the past couple of weeks and what we will see next week. At this stage of the season, it’s about fine tuning your team for the playoffs, getting the best seeding you can and for those who do not have the postseason to look forward to, it’s all about playing spoiler or seeing what you have for 2016. 2016 however is the last thing we want to think about as we inch closer to the playoffs.
Keep in mind, the numbers in front of the schools names are their Richmond Region Ranking(my ranking that is). Also keep in mind all stats presented are from 1970 to present day.
GAME OF THE WEEK
#9 Mancheter(6-2) at #4 Monacan(8-1)
One of two meetings this week featuring two schools ranked in my top ten, this one has obvious playoff ramifications. The Lancers head to Monacan in a game they need to win to hold on to a home playoff game. The Chiefs on the other hand are a team that is closing out there regular season a week before everyone else does. Monacan also has a lot to play for in this one given the fact that they are currently a third seed and if Hanover slips in their final two games, Monacan could move up.
Monacan comes into this one obviously healthier than Manchester who has lost several players due to injury such as their quarterback and running back. Monacan of course has been there themselves having played a few games without quarterback Syour Fludd in the middle of the season. It was during that time that the Chiefs lost to LC Bird, one two teams that Manchester has lost to. Combined the three teams these two have lost to are undefeated; Hermitage and LC Bird.
As I said, Manchester is hurting from injuries but like all good teams, they have players who step up. Kionte Hamlet has been that at the quarterback position and Frank Boyd performed quite well this past week running the ball.
The Lancers can put up some points, they have proven that in just about every game minus the Bird game mind you and Monacan can do that as well when Syour Fludd is healthy and they have a pretty good defense as well. I honestly don’t know who wins this one, I could see it going both ways… My gut tells me Monacan but I never count out the Lancers. In fact the Lancers lead the series 17-14 with Monacan’s last win in the series having been 2007. Is this the year for Monacan?
Prediction: Manchester 28, Monacan 18
RICHMOND ROUNDOUT
#8 Hopewell(6-2) at #7 Thomas Dale(6-2)
Before last week I would have said this was a slam dunk win for the Knights. Then last week happened, the Blue Devils shutout Matoaca and Thomas Dale fell to Meadowbrook. The challenge here for Thomas Dale is can they bounce back from their second loss of the year like they did after their first loss against LC Bird? Both teams have quite a bit to play for, Hopewell moved up to the top seed in 3A this week whereas Thomas Dale holds put as the second seed in 6A. A win for either keeps them in great position for the playoffs but a loss would hurt. Hopewell proved last week it can score in a variety of ways, with a variety of players but the Knights have shown they have a tough defense and that will be the matchup to watch, Hopewell’s offense versus Thomas Dale’s defense. If the Blue Devils are unable to find success against Thomas Dale’s defense, then I believe the Knights take it but if they are, I think the Blue Devils could take this one. Thomas Dale leads the series 26-14-1 but the Blue Devils last win came back in 2012.
Prediction: Thomas Dale 24, Hopewell 21
#6 Lee-Davis(7-1) at #10 Henrico(6-2)
Every week there seems to be a marquee matchup in the Capital District and this week is no different. The Confederates rebounded from their first loss of the season last week with a win over Hanover while Henrico dropped their second game of the season, this one against Highland Springs, the team that also handed Lee-Davis their first loss. This is a huge game for both teams as they fight for seeding in the 5A-South playoffs. Henrico has dropped to sixth in seeding whereas Lee-Davis is holding put at 4th. A win for either will certainly boost their seeding but a loss for either would hurt, Henrico particularly. Henrico’s offense has been up and down this season but the defense has been strong, even last week against the Springers they only allowed 21, the fewest for the Springers since the Hermitage game. Therein lies the matchup to watch in this one, Henrico’s defense against the Lee-Davis offense that has shined this season. If Henrico’s defense cannot make any headway against the Confederates, I don’t believe the Hawks win on offense alone. Lee-Davis leads the series 26-19 with Henrico having won last years meeting.
Prediction: Lee-Davis 21, Henrico 14
ROUND RICHMOND
#5 Highland Springs(7-1) at #18 Patrick Henry(4-4)
The Patriots won the last two meetings in 2001 and 2002, both those meetings came in the playoffs. This one is a game Patrick Henry needs to keep their playoff hopes alive this season but truth be told they will be the underdog in this one for sure. The Springers have more weapons on offense and the defense has just gotten better and better as the season has gone on. The Patriots on the other hand have struggled against the better teams in the area. With the Springers having posted four shutouts in their last five games, the Patriots will have their work cut out for them. Despite losses in their last two meetings the Springers lead the series 17-7.
Prediction: Highland Springs 38, Patrick Henry 10
#21 Mills Godwin(3-5) at #3 Douglas Freeman(8-0)
Mills Godwin is one of two teams standing in the way of an undefeated Douglas Freeman team playing an undefeated Hermitage team in the final week of the season. Freeman early on in the season appeared to be a team whose strength was on defense but as the season has unfolded their offense has gotten better. Mills Godwin on the other hand has struggled all season and even if they had not, they have two losses in the last two meetings with the Rebels. Believe it or not however, Freeman only has 7 wins in the previous 32 meetings but clearly there has been a shift in power. Freeman is close to doing what no Rebels team has done since 1977, I don’t believe they let this one slip away.
Prediction: Douglas Freeman 27, Mills Godwin 13
#16 Varina(4-4) at #15 Atlee(4-4)
Two teams needing wins… With Highland Springs looming next week, the Blue Devils need a win not only to keep their faint playoff hopes alive but also to ensure themselves of not posting another losing season. Atlee is in need of a win as well, they cannot afford many more losses as the Raiders are seeded 13th in the 5A-North playoffs currently. Both teams have been in consistent this season, one week they look good, one week not so much. Varina leads the series 17-7 but it’s the Raiders who have won the last two putting an end to the dominance that Varina once had in this series. If Varina is to win they will need a big game from their defense, otherwise Varina’s offense will not be able to keep up with Atlee.
Prediction: Atlee 31, Varina 21
#32 Huguenot(1-7) at #1 LC Bird(8-0)
LC Bird leads this series 24-5… For many fans and players a like, it’s hard to imagine that this was once a big game in the 90’s but those days are long gone. Huguenot’s last win in the series was 2006, nearly a decade ago and after opening the season with a win, they have been unable to get back there. Ironically enough their best chance for a second win will come in the final game of the season. This is the most lopsided of meetings this week. Few teams have scored on Bird this season and Huguenot has struggled all season to win and score at times. LC Bird will probably go up early and put in backups in the second half but even then Huguenot will be overmatched.
Prediction: LC Bird 56, Huguenot 0
#31 Glen Allen(1-7) at #2 Hermitage(8-0)
These two have met once before, back in 2011, Hermitage of course won that matchup, just as they should in this one. Sure Glen Allen got their first win last week but it came against Thomas Jefferson and while the Jaguars are not as bad as their record, the Panthers are one of the best in the region and will not be caught looking ahead to Freeman. Eli Odom has been perhaps the hottest quarter back in the region in the second half of the season and Glen Allen’s defense will have a tough time against the Panther offense. This one could get out of hand early with Glen Allen scoring late.
Prediction: Hermitage 45, Glen Allen 10
#22 Colonial Heights(3-5) at #12 Matoaca(5-3)
It wasn’t that long ago that Matoaca had just one loss this season but suddenly they are 5-3. The Warriors will be looking to put an end to that skid against a team they not lost to since 1991! The Warriors need this win in terms of playoff seeding. They won’t be able to get a home game but they are in a battle with Henrico and Meadowbrook for the bottom three spots and with Thomas Dale next week, they can ill afford to drop this one. Colonial Heights on the other hand has just as much to play for, they are a five seed currently and if they could pull off an upset here, it would be huge for their chances of moving up in the seeding. Regardless of what happens in this one, both are making the playoffs. Matoaca’s offense was red hot earlier this season but that seems to have cooled and their defense has not been their strength by any stretch. If the defense cannot contain Darien Canada who had made teams pay this season, it could be an upset in store for us but I don’t believe that will be the case. I think Matoaca gets back on track heading into their finale with Thomas Dale. The Warriors lead the series 35-10-1, after this one, make it 36-10-1.
Prediction: Matoaca 42, Colonial Heights 17
#23 Prince George(3-5) at #14 Meadowbrook(4-4)
The year was 2002, at that time Meadowbrook had just one playoff appearance in the history of the program, the same as Prince George. That was the last time the Royals won in this series and since that time Meadowbrook has won a state championship and become a playoff contender year in and year out. The Monarchs need this one as they battle Varina for that final playoff spot as well as battling Henrico and Matoaca for one of those bottom three seeds. The Monarchs pulled off a bit of a surprise last week topping Matoaca. After a rough start to the season the Monarchs are getting stronger here at the end of the season. Prince George’s season mirrors so many of their seasons, nice start, rough midstretch and then they get a couple of wins in the end to get to 3-7/4-6. In this one I think it’s whose offense is better and I believe that to be Meadowbrook right now. The Monarchs lead the series 22-14-1 having won 12 straight, make it 13!
Prediction: Meadowbrook 35, Prince George 13
#11 Hanover(5-3) at #26 Armstrong(2-6)
If trends tell us anything, it’s that Hanover will win this one… Armstrong hasn’t won a district game yet this season and Hanover has not had back-to-back wins or losses for that matter in the district slate which means Hanover should win this one after their loss last week. Even without the trend, the Hawks should roll in this one. The Wildcats defense will have a tough time limiting the Hawks run game and the Wildcats offense has struggled for much of the season. An upset would be huge for Armstrong as they hang on to the seven seed in 3A-East playoff picture, the Wildcats do not want to get into a situation where they are in a ratings battle in the finale next week. Hanover also needs to keep winning so they can maintain their second seed in 4A-East. The Hawks lead the series 9-3, have not lost to the Wildcats since 2005 but that was before the Hawks became the winning program we know it to be now.
Prediction: Hanover 45, Armstrong 12
#13 Dinwiddie(5-3) at #25 Petersburg(2-6)
Petersburg has lost the last eight meetings with Dinwiddie and their last six games this season, clearly the odds are not in the Wave’s favor. The Wave will have their hands full in this one as their defense attempts to slow down the offense of Dinwiddie that can put up points quickly, example being last week. Dinwiddie’s weakness is their defense but Petersburg has struggled regardless of who they played this season and Dinwiddie is not just anyone, despite three losses they are a contender. I don’t expect a blowout in this one but I do believe the Generals will take this one convincingly. The Generals lead the series 27-18-2 and will snag another victory as they look to improve their seeding for the playoffs while dealing a blow to Petersburg’s playoff seeding and hopes.
Prediction: Dinwiddie 42, Petersburg 17
#20 James River(3-5) at #24 Clover Hill(2-6)
Two teams fighting for pride at this point in the season as neither appears destined for a playoff this season. One win is the difference in their records this season as it’s been a struggle for both to compete with the better teams they have faced. Their wins this season have come against Huguenot, George Wythe and for James River Midlothian; teams who have a combined win total of 3! James River has won three straight in the series but it’s the Cavaliers with the series lead 12-9 but this one honestly could go either way. If Davod Wilkins can run the ball against James River I like the Cavaliers chances but if not, I believe it will be James River all the way.
Prediction: James River 24, Clover Hill 23
#27 Thomas Jefferson(2-6) at #19 JR Tucker(3-5)
Tucker might have the better record, might have the better ranking but it’s the Vikings that have more to lose in this one. The Vikings are currently outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs but a win in this one would help as time is running out. TJ like so many are not as bad as their record might indicate, it’s just tough for city schools to compete with bigger schools, that’s a problem that goes back to the old alignment. The same however can be said about Tucker, they are not as bad as their 3-5 record might indicate. Keep in mind the Tigers had Hermitage down earlier this season 16-0 but couldn’t hold. The Vikings bring experience, the Tigers bring Taj Conway who can run the ball and a defense that is solid. The Tigers would love to play spoiler and with TJ this week and Glen Allen next week it’s entirely possible the Tigers could finish 5-5. TJ only has five wins in the series trailing 24-5 and last beat the Tigers in 2007. Look for Tucker to inch closer to 5-5 and deal a blow to TJ’s playoff hopes.
Prediction: JR Tucker 33, Thomas Jefferson 16
#33 George Wythe(0-8) at #17 Cosby(4-4)
Cosby owns this series 8-0 and ironically enough the Bulldogs are 0-8 this season which means the Bulldogs chances are slim to none in this one. Cosby had a few tough losses early in the season such as the Matoaca game, at 4-4 they are fighting to remain in the 6A South playoffs, currently a seven seed. A win here won’t earn them a ton of points but a win is a win and a win keeps them headed for a third straight playoff appearance. For George Wythe a win here would be the biggest in a decade for the Bulldogs but like so many city schools playing in 3A, against a 6A team that is deeper and more talented, the odds are not in their favor. The Bulldogs will face an uphill battle from the start and Cosby should win this one convincingly.
Prediction: Cosby 42, George Wythe 6
#30 Deep Run(1-7) at #28 John Marshall(2-6)
If John Marshall is to have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since the 1992 season, they will need a win here. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Justices get a win here. The quarterback position is solid and the offense as a whole has put up points often this season and has some close losses. Like so many, the Justices are not as bad as 2-6 might indicate. Deep Run’s season has been another long one, just one win this season in a season that saw a change in coaching earlier this season. A win would be huge for the Wildcats in a season that has had few highlights. If John Marshall does however win, it would be their first win in the series; the Wildcats own the series 12-0. I could see this one going either way but I think John Marshall sneaks out a win here keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Prediction: John Marshall 21, Deep Run 20
EXTRA POINTS
Last week I was 12-4 in my predictions as I have averaged 12 wins a week this season. Speaking of the season I am 129-27.
Ironic don’t you think that fans of UVA have been calling for London to be fired for a few seasons now yet he remains having not a lot to show for. Yet at Virginia Tech, with all that Beamer has done at Tech, you get the feeling they are ready for a change. For the record, I think we will see new head coaches at both next season.
In a season where changes at coaching in the college ranks has been crazier than ever happening during the season for a variety of reason, it makes you wonder what is in store this season in the Richmond Region. Coach Davis at Deep Run resigned earlier this season, Coach Meeks has stepped in to lead the Wildcats the rest of the season but what happens once the season is over?
After the 2014 season we had 4 coaching changes, the three seasons prior; 2011-2013 we had six each year! 2005 and 2010 are the only seasons since 2000 that we did not have a change after the season. Other than those two seasons we have had at least three changes each year since the 2000 season so odds are there will be more changes after the season.
So what schools have had the most changes since 2000? George Wythe has had 8 changes, JR Tucker has had 5 and Deep Run, Henrico & Lee-Davis have had 4. Those are your top five.
For those who might question the rankings… There is a formula used in my rankings but first and foremost, record takes precedence over anything else. That’s what I have stuck by ever since I’ve been doing rankings back in 2001.
I always welcome feedback from the fans and readers as well as suggestions so feel free to e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com and you may also follow me on twitter at @CRF4Dan.
If you feel there was a player at the game you were at this fall that deserves to be recognized for his play, e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com with your case for why that player should be one of the Richmond Gamers for the week.
