Well last week we had 12 games and 19 teams, this week we have 7 games and 10 teams! Who surives? Whose season comes to an end? We know some very good teams won’t be playing beyond this week… Two undefeateds play one another… We have a rematch of teams and we have a pairing of teams that played over a decade ago. Last weekend was fun and this weekend will be as well.
GAME OF THE WEEK
#3 LC Bird(11-0) at #2 Hermitage(11-0)
When these two meet Friday night it will be for the 7th time, all having occurred in the playoffs… That’s the 7th time in the last 12 seasons! Six season’s straight now… Third time the two have met as unbeaten! Simply put, it’s huge!
When the two first met back in 2004 it was for the Central Region Title in Division 6 and Hermitage was still a team trying to prove itself to a region that had largely been dominated by Thomas Dale, Varina and LC Bird in Division 6. Kane was in his fourth season as head coach and was not a playoff regular that they are today. That night LC Bird beat Hermitage 15-13. It would be six years before the two would meet again and again for the Central Region crown in Division 6. The Panthers would take that one 17-14 on their way to the state championship appearance and would follow that up the next year with a 14-0 win over the Skyhawks. Now here we are four years later with the Skyhawks winners of three straight and in the previous three defeats, the Skyhawks have gone on to win state titles.
The 2012 loss was the closest of the three losses, 24-20 and the past two the Skyhawks have outscored Hermitage 56-21. Can the Panthers buck the trend? They can but the question is will they?
These teams are not all that far apart to be quite honest… Both have quarterbacks who can get it done with legs or arms. Elliott has a bit more experience having played a full season last year but while Odom didn’t get in a full schedule, the experience he did get last year has aided in the season he has had to date. You have some of the best linebackers in the region between the two; Ashby and Moore for Bird and Kinney, DeBerry and Whitehead for Hermitage.
The two are also similar in offense but different strengths. For me Hermitage has the better passing game and weapons to make it happen and Bird has the better ground game and the weapons to make that happen. Let us not forget the lines that clear a path for the Bird backs or the line for Herm that gives Odom a chance to get it off to a receiver. If one falters, both offenses can rely on the other but make no mistake about where there strengths lie.
So two evenly matched teams, someone has to win right? Eventually Hermitage is going to beat Bird; eventually someone is going to beat Bird… I like the Panthers team and makeup and any other season I would say they win but I can’t get over how dominant the Skyhawks defense has been and while the Panthers defense is good, they have given up more points than that of the Skyhawks and that keeps ringing an alarm in my mind that the Skyhawks will take this. I do believe however that the Panthers will be the first team to score two touchdowns on the Skyhawks this season but in the end, that defense comes through for Bird.
Prediction: #3 LC Bird 24, #2 Hermitage 18
RICHMOND ROUNDOUT
#5 Lee-Davis(9-2) at #1 Highland Springs(10-1)
Second week in a row that we get a rematch of a game from the regular season… If you stop and think about it, Highland Springs has played Meadowbrook twice and now Lee-Davis… Could a rematch of their first game of the season be up next? Won’t know that till after Friday but if the Springers are to have a shot at that they will have to hand Lee-Davis their third loss of the season.
In the first meeting at Lee-Davis not Highland Springs the Springers defense ruled the night with a shutout of what had been a hot offense for the Confederates. Not only was the defense on point but so was that of the offense racking up 42 points on Lee-Davis. In the three rematches last week, the initial winner won the second meeting as well. That does not bode well for Lee-Davis but even if the Confederates lose this one, I believe they will not go down like they did in that first meeting.
If Lee-Davis is to find success in this one, they will have to have a better game plain and simple than they did back in October. A start like what they had against Freeman would be ideal but let’s not kid ourselves; you’re not going to score three touchdowns in the first quarter on the Springers. The Confederates need to score when they have the opportunity, don’t turn the ball over and lean on the ground game to control the tempo and time of possession just as they did last week against Freeman. On defense the Confederates must be able to account for all the weapons on offense for the Springers and that’s easier said than done.
Twenty years ago these two met for the first and only time in the playoffs. That year Lee-Davis was the top seed and topped the Springers 35-13, that just happened to be the last time the Confederates won two games in the playoffs… Overall the Springers lead the series 31-14-2 having won 5 straight and the Springers haven’t advanced to the third round of the playoffs since reaching the state semifinals in 1990!
I like what the Confederates have going, the program is headed in the right direction but the Springers are just a more complete team and despite a fight early, the Springers will take this one in the end.
Prediction: #1 Highland Springs 28, #5 Lee-Davis 14
#6 Dinwiddie(8-3) at #2 Hanover(8-3)
This is the second of two rematches this weekend… In the first meeting the Hawks bested Dinwiddie 38-27 to open their season in a game many even then thought would be the first of two meetings for these two this season. Unlike that first meeting however, there is no Clayton Cheatham.
Cheatham was hurt in that first game of the season and the injury sidelined him for the next eight weeks. He returned two weeks ago against Henrico and then had a huge night last week taking down Louisa. In that first round win Cheatham as you may now know was ejected after two unsportsman like conduct calls. The ejection per VHSL rules means he cannot play.
That said, there is no team better prepared to go it without their quarterback than the Hawks after having done so for much of the season. Marcus Bazala was as dangerous at the position as Cheatham and progressing as a passer when Cheatham did return. Playing behind that big offensive line does not hurt either and while Dinwiddie has played better as of late, if there is a weakness for them, it is the defense. Defense however is a concern for the Hawks as well as they are not as strong on that side of the ball as they have been in previous years which is why the Hawks won a shootout in their first meeting with the Generals.
At one point this season the Generals were 3-3 but four straight wins to end the season have the Generals believing they can beat anyone and that showed when they took down Monacan last week. Bryce Witt is always lethal at the quarterback position and their options to run the ball are just that, options, take your pick. That will present problems for the Hawks no doubt.
Now how can we talk Dinwiddie-Hanover without referencing their past and by past I don’t mean their previous matchup this season. For four straight seasons from 2008-2011 the two met in the playoffs, twice to decide the region champion. In even years the Generals came out on top, 2008(34-17) and 2010(28-21) but in the odd years 2009(35-33) & 2011(41-14) the Hawks took the win. They would have met in 2012 but the Hopewell Blue Devils got in the way and prevented that. These two had quite the rivalry going and these games were heavily attended and that is sure to be the case this go around as well. Now it is 2015, does that mean the Hawks win again or do the Generals win for the first time in the series since 2010?
While I do feel Bazala is more than capable of leading the Hawks to victory, I can’t help but feel as if this is playing into the Generals favor. If the Generals defense can contain him if not stop his ability to run while continuing to put up the points they are capable of, Dinwiddie should advance to the region final. However, the x-factor for the Hawks offense is the passing game, if Bazala can find success there hooking up with Jack Chenault who has emerged this season as their leading receiver, then they have a chance. That said, I believe the Generals defense will do just enough to keep the Hawks offense at bay ad preserve a victory for the Generals in a close one.
Prediction: #6 Dinwiddie 28, #2 Hanover 25
ROUND RICHMOND
#3 Thomas Dale(7-4) at #2 CD Hylton(9-2)
So they meet again… Knights and Bulldogs… CD Hylton is no stranger to the Richmond Region or Thomas Dale for that matter although it’s been more than a decade since they met if you can believe that. To refresh your memory in 2001 the Knights knocked off Hylton to advance to the Division 6 State Championship and the following year the Bulldogs got a bit of payback in the state semifinals knocking Dale out.
If not for the three game losing streak to close out the regular season, the Knights might very well be hosting this game but that is not the case. This time around it’s Thomas Dale on the road to Hylton to face a team that has just two losses. Those two losses came to Battlefield in the first game of the season. The second loss came to Colonial Forge who was ousted last week in the first round. As stated, Dale lost three in a row to close out the regular season but before that the only team Dale had lost to was LC Bird and of course their reputation speaks for itself.
CD Hylton is always tough; year in and year out they are a contender. This year they are a contender in part due to the play of their defense and quarterback Donovan Williams. Just last week against Forest Park Williams rushed for over 200 yards while also throwing for 96 albeit the Forest Park defense did key on the passing game limiting the production there. With an average of 33 points a game, the Knights defense will have their hands full but it’s not impossible to stop this offense. Colonial Forge kept them to 16 earlier this season and of course Battlefield shut them out to begin the season. Speaking of shutouts, the Knights just shutout Woodbridge, a team that Hylton knows a thing or two about having played them in September in a 41-7 win.
For me this is not a question of defense but of offense. The Knights put up 26 on Woodbridge and shut them out; I don’t know that the Knights will find that same level of success against Hylton, particularly at Hylton. If the defense can play like they did earlier this season and like they showed last week in shutting out Woodbridge, then I like the Knights chances but if they are unable to do this, they could be in trouble. Is the offense of Thomas Dale healthy enough to go toe to toe with Hylton?
The neat part of this matchup other than their history is if Thomas Dale can win, the Knights could get a rematch with Cosby. Cosby and Dale played to open the season. This series however is tied at one game each, this one could go either way but I believe the home team takes it.
Prediction: #2 CD Hylton 28, #3 Thomas Dale 21
#4 Skyline(6-5) at #1 Hopewell(9-2)
Hopewell and Skyline face off a round later than they did last year when the Blue Devils took the win 24-21. Unlike last year however, the Blue Devils are the top seed and are a legitimate contender in 3A whereas Skyline doesn’t appear to be as strong as they were last year.
The Hawks came into the playoffs at 6-4 but two of those wins came by just one point and another by three, nevermind the fact they won by just three points last week. Their losses? They have not been close and honestly the defense has to be the biggest concern for Hawk fans coming into this one. Skyline has allowed 354 points this season, that’s an average of 32 points per game! That’s not good when you are going up against a team that is averaging 36 points a game.
Hopewell’s only two losses this season came to two teams playing in 4A this weekend, Hanover and Dinwiddie; both in September mind you. Skyline has only beaten one winning team thus far this season and that team finished with a 6-5 record last week. The Blue Devils not only beat winning teams but playing in the Central District with the likes of Dinwiddie, Thomas Dale, Matoaca and even Meadowbrook it’s safe to say the Blue Devils are battle tested.
If and it’s a big IF for me in this one is IF Skyline is to have a chance it’s going to have to come on offense. I don’t believe their defense will be able to stop the Blue Devil offense that can score in a variety of ways so you’re going to have to outscore them. Can Skyline do this? I have my doubts. I don’t like to knock teams but the facts speak for themselves, 21 points is the season average on offense for these Hawks compared to that of Hopewell’s offensive output.
Last week was just Skyline’s second win in the playoffs in a short history. Hopewell on the other hand has a history of success in the playoffs albeit should the Blue Devils win, it will be the farthest they have reached since 2003. I do believe this will be the case. Coach Irby has his team playing at a high level and they appear to be a team on a mission. Look for the Blue Devils to be playing next week.
Prediction: #1 Hopewell 35, #4 Skyline 17
#10 Atlee(7-4) at #2 Tuscarora(11-0)
Last week the Raiders pulled off a bit of an upset in the closing seconds of the game… Their reward? Playing a team that is thought to be as good as the team that reached the state finals last year, a team that did not need to go to the very end to win.
That’s just what Tuscarora has done all season, win… In fact, in two seasons now they have only lost one game and that was to LC Bird in last year’s 5A State Final. It’s not as if Tuscarora is unbeatable, they have had some close games this season but they always persevere… They had 4 games decided by single digits and two of those games were by one point. That said, if Atlee is to pull of what would be a huge upset it will take a great defensive game and that is one area the Raiders have struggled with this season.
Atlee relies mostly on their offense which has averaged 33 points a game but as said, the defense is the big question mark. The Raiders had to win a shootout last week and they are giving up an average of 27 points per game. In 5 games, the Raiders gave up 34 or more points and against winning teams such as Tuscarora the Raiders were 2-4! Simply put, the odds are not in their favor. The Raiders win last week believe it or not was Atlee’s first win on the road in the playoffs… ever!
Coach Johnson has turned this program around in his time at Atlee, 4-3 in the playoffs, those wins are more than the only other coach to lead the Raiders to the playoffs, Coach Trott. Johnson’s success however pales in comparison to that of Coach Burnett who is in the playoffs for fifth straight season and between Broad Run and Tuscarora has a record of 16-6 with two state titles and three state title game appearances on his resume.
Few teams have been able to match Tuscarora’s offense this season but Atlee is one team with an offense that can. Rasharrd Harris and the Raiders like to air it out and he has plenty of targets to hit with the pass. I expect this to be to be close for a half, maybe even three quarters but ultimately Tuscarora will prove too much for the Raiders and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: #2 Tuscarora 41, #10 Atlee 24
#8 Riverbend(5-6) at #5 Cosby(7-4)
Neither of these teams are supposed to be here, both lower seeds who pulled off wins last week. Riverbend was a bit more shocking, knocking off top seeded Colonial Forge but many last week thought Colonial Forge might be in trouble as Riverbend nearly knocked them off in their regular season meeting. Cosby however was less of a surprise given they had just knocked off Manchester in the regular season finale.
Riverbend is 5-6 with all of their losses coming against winning teams. Only three of their wins this season came up against teams with a winning record. If nothing else, Riverbend is battle tested and don’t be too quick to dismiss the Bears, of those six losses, five came by three points or less. Both teams started off rather slow, the Bears had just one win in their first six games. Cosby was just 3-4 at one point before finishing the season strong.
Cosby with a win would be on the deepest playoff run in their short history. Riverbend however cannot be counted out given the fact they knocked off the top seed last week and how easily they could be 10-1 as opposed to 5-6.
The Bears just got their first playoff win last week but last year they nearly got it against Thomas Dale last year losing in overtime. Many who were on that team returned to action this year with the Bears. Players such as Texas Tech commit lineman Zach Adams and running back Orlando Jones.
The Titans are a team who can win and have shown that this season. Two of their losses came by five points or less and one of those losses came at the very end on a Hail Mary. The Titans have a solid quarterback in Grant Squayers and several who can run the ball such as Trevor Laury and Hunter Edmonds. The Titans also feature tight end/defensive tackle Drew Birchmeier who has committed to Vanderbilt. Plain and simple there is no lack of talent on the Titans.
Playing at home will be big for the Titans but Riverbend has proven that playing on the road is no bother for them, evident by nearly beating Thomas Dale last year in the playoffs and beating Colonial Forge last week. Cosby cannot sleep on the Bears and I don’t believe they will. I believe the Titans will come prepared for a fight and I believe the game goes all four quarters as history has shown us Riverbend does not go quietly. Look for the Titans to take a close one.
Prediction: #5 Cosby 31, #8 Riverbend 28
EXTRA POINTS
Last week I was 10-2 in my predictions as I have averaged 12 wins a week this season. Speaking of the season I am 163-37.
With LC Bird making the playoffs again this season, Coach Bedwell ties Coach Ray Long for most playoff appearances in the Richmond Region.
With Thomas Dale’s win last week, they surpassed Varina for second place in playoff wins in the Richmond Region. If Highland Springs beats Lee-Davis, they too will move past Varina.
Highland Springs and LC Bird have combined for most playoff games in Richmond Region… Bird has played in 61 games, Highland Springs 52. The two could be playing next week in the region final.
I always welcome feedback from the fans and readers as well as suggestions so feel free to e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com and you may also follow me on twitter at @CRF4Dan.
If you feel there was a player at the game you were at this fall that deserves to be recognized for his play, e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com with your case for why that player should be one of the Richmond Gamers for the week.
GAME OF THE WEEK
#3 LC Bird(11-0) at #2 Hermitage(11-0)
When these two meet Friday night it will be for the 7th time, all having occurred in the playoffs… That’s the 7th time in the last 12 seasons! Six season’s straight now… Third time the two have met as unbeaten! Simply put, it’s huge!
When the two first met back in 2004 it was for the Central Region Title in Division 6 and Hermitage was still a team trying to prove itself to a region that had largely been dominated by Thomas Dale, Varina and LC Bird in Division 6. Kane was in his fourth season as head coach and was not a playoff regular that they are today. That night LC Bird beat Hermitage 15-13. It would be six years before the two would meet again and again for the Central Region crown in Division 6. The Panthers would take that one 17-14 on their way to the state championship appearance and would follow that up the next year with a 14-0 win over the Skyhawks. Now here we are four years later with the Skyhawks winners of three straight and in the previous three defeats, the Skyhawks have gone on to win state titles.
The 2012 loss was the closest of the three losses, 24-20 and the past two the Skyhawks have outscored Hermitage 56-21. Can the Panthers buck the trend? They can but the question is will they?
These teams are not all that far apart to be quite honest… Both have quarterbacks who can get it done with legs or arms. Elliott has a bit more experience having played a full season last year but while Odom didn’t get in a full schedule, the experience he did get last year has aided in the season he has had to date. You have some of the best linebackers in the region between the two; Ashby and Moore for Bird and Kinney, DeBerry and Whitehead for Hermitage.
The two are also similar in offense but different strengths. For me Hermitage has the better passing game and weapons to make it happen and Bird has the better ground game and the weapons to make that happen. Let us not forget the lines that clear a path for the Bird backs or the line for Herm that gives Odom a chance to get it off to a receiver. If one falters, both offenses can rely on the other but make no mistake about where there strengths lie.
So two evenly matched teams, someone has to win right? Eventually Hermitage is going to beat Bird; eventually someone is going to beat Bird… I like the Panthers team and makeup and any other season I would say they win but I can’t get over how dominant the Skyhawks defense has been and while the Panthers defense is good, they have given up more points than that of the Skyhawks and that keeps ringing an alarm in my mind that the Skyhawks will take this. I do believe however that the Panthers will be the first team to score two touchdowns on the Skyhawks this season but in the end, that defense comes through for Bird.
Prediction: #3 LC Bird 24, #2 Hermitage 18
RICHMOND ROUNDOUT
#5 Lee-Davis(9-2) at #1 Highland Springs(10-1)
Second week in a row that we get a rematch of a game from the regular season… If you stop and think about it, Highland Springs has played Meadowbrook twice and now Lee-Davis… Could a rematch of their first game of the season be up next? Won’t know that till after Friday but if the Springers are to have a shot at that they will have to hand Lee-Davis their third loss of the season.
In the first meeting at Lee-Davis not Highland Springs the Springers defense ruled the night with a shutout of what had been a hot offense for the Confederates. Not only was the defense on point but so was that of the offense racking up 42 points on Lee-Davis. In the three rematches last week, the initial winner won the second meeting as well. That does not bode well for Lee-Davis but even if the Confederates lose this one, I believe they will not go down like they did in that first meeting.
If Lee-Davis is to find success in this one, they will have to have a better game plain and simple than they did back in October. A start like what they had against Freeman would be ideal but let’s not kid ourselves; you’re not going to score three touchdowns in the first quarter on the Springers. The Confederates need to score when they have the opportunity, don’t turn the ball over and lean on the ground game to control the tempo and time of possession just as they did last week against Freeman. On defense the Confederates must be able to account for all the weapons on offense for the Springers and that’s easier said than done.
Twenty years ago these two met for the first and only time in the playoffs. That year Lee-Davis was the top seed and topped the Springers 35-13, that just happened to be the last time the Confederates won two games in the playoffs… Overall the Springers lead the series 31-14-2 having won 5 straight and the Springers haven’t advanced to the third round of the playoffs since reaching the state semifinals in 1990!
I like what the Confederates have going, the program is headed in the right direction but the Springers are just a more complete team and despite a fight early, the Springers will take this one in the end.
Prediction: #1 Highland Springs 28, #5 Lee-Davis 14
#6 Dinwiddie(8-3) at #2 Hanover(8-3)
This is the second of two rematches this weekend… In the first meeting the Hawks bested Dinwiddie 38-27 to open their season in a game many even then thought would be the first of two meetings for these two this season. Unlike that first meeting however, there is no Clayton Cheatham.
Cheatham was hurt in that first game of the season and the injury sidelined him for the next eight weeks. He returned two weeks ago against Henrico and then had a huge night last week taking down Louisa. In that first round win Cheatham as you may now know was ejected after two unsportsman like conduct calls. The ejection per VHSL rules means he cannot play.
That said, there is no team better prepared to go it without their quarterback than the Hawks after having done so for much of the season. Marcus Bazala was as dangerous at the position as Cheatham and progressing as a passer when Cheatham did return. Playing behind that big offensive line does not hurt either and while Dinwiddie has played better as of late, if there is a weakness for them, it is the defense. Defense however is a concern for the Hawks as well as they are not as strong on that side of the ball as they have been in previous years which is why the Hawks won a shootout in their first meeting with the Generals.
At one point this season the Generals were 3-3 but four straight wins to end the season have the Generals believing they can beat anyone and that showed when they took down Monacan last week. Bryce Witt is always lethal at the quarterback position and their options to run the ball are just that, options, take your pick. That will present problems for the Hawks no doubt.
Now how can we talk Dinwiddie-Hanover without referencing their past and by past I don’t mean their previous matchup this season. For four straight seasons from 2008-2011 the two met in the playoffs, twice to decide the region champion. In even years the Generals came out on top, 2008(34-17) and 2010(28-21) but in the odd years 2009(35-33) & 2011(41-14) the Hawks took the win. They would have met in 2012 but the Hopewell Blue Devils got in the way and prevented that. These two had quite the rivalry going and these games were heavily attended and that is sure to be the case this go around as well. Now it is 2015, does that mean the Hawks win again or do the Generals win for the first time in the series since 2010?
While I do feel Bazala is more than capable of leading the Hawks to victory, I can’t help but feel as if this is playing into the Generals favor. If the Generals defense can contain him if not stop his ability to run while continuing to put up the points they are capable of, Dinwiddie should advance to the region final. However, the x-factor for the Hawks offense is the passing game, if Bazala can find success there hooking up with Jack Chenault who has emerged this season as their leading receiver, then they have a chance. That said, I believe the Generals defense will do just enough to keep the Hawks offense at bay ad preserve a victory for the Generals in a close one.
Prediction: #6 Dinwiddie 28, #2 Hanover 25
ROUND RICHMOND
#3 Thomas Dale(7-4) at #2 CD Hylton(9-2)
So they meet again… Knights and Bulldogs… CD Hylton is no stranger to the Richmond Region or Thomas Dale for that matter although it’s been more than a decade since they met if you can believe that. To refresh your memory in 2001 the Knights knocked off Hylton to advance to the Division 6 State Championship and the following year the Bulldogs got a bit of payback in the state semifinals knocking Dale out.
If not for the three game losing streak to close out the regular season, the Knights might very well be hosting this game but that is not the case. This time around it’s Thomas Dale on the road to Hylton to face a team that has just two losses. Those two losses came to Battlefield in the first game of the season. The second loss came to Colonial Forge who was ousted last week in the first round. As stated, Dale lost three in a row to close out the regular season but before that the only team Dale had lost to was LC Bird and of course their reputation speaks for itself.
CD Hylton is always tough; year in and year out they are a contender. This year they are a contender in part due to the play of their defense and quarterback Donovan Williams. Just last week against Forest Park Williams rushed for over 200 yards while also throwing for 96 albeit the Forest Park defense did key on the passing game limiting the production there. With an average of 33 points a game, the Knights defense will have their hands full but it’s not impossible to stop this offense. Colonial Forge kept them to 16 earlier this season and of course Battlefield shut them out to begin the season. Speaking of shutouts, the Knights just shutout Woodbridge, a team that Hylton knows a thing or two about having played them in September in a 41-7 win.
For me this is not a question of defense but of offense. The Knights put up 26 on Woodbridge and shut them out; I don’t know that the Knights will find that same level of success against Hylton, particularly at Hylton. If the defense can play like they did earlier this season and like they showed last week in shutting out Woodbridge, then I like the Knights chances but if they are unable to do this, they could be in trouble. Is the offense of Thomas Dale healthy enough to go toe to toe with Hylton?
The neat part of this matchup other than their history is if Thomas Dale can win, the Knights could get a rematch with Cosby. Cosby and Dale played to open the season. This series however is tied at one game each, this one could go either way but I believe the home team takes it.
Prediction: #2 CD Hylton 28, #3 Thomas Dale 21
#4 Skyline(6-5) at #1 Hopewell(9-2)
Hopewell and Skyline face off a round later than they did last year when the Blue Devils took the win 24-21. Unlike last year however, the Blue Devils are the top seed and are a legitimate contender in 3A whereas Skyline doesn’t appear to be as strong as they were last year.
The Hawks came into the playoffs at 6-4 but two of those wins came by just one point and another by three, nevermind the fact they won by just three points last week. Their losses? They have not been close and honestly the defense has to be the biggest concern for Hawk fans coming into this one. Skyline has allowed 354 points this season, that’s an average of 32 points per game! That’s not good when you are going up against a team that is averaging 36 points a game.
Hopewell’s only two losses this season came to two teams playing in 4A this weekend, Hanover and Dinwiddie; both in September mind you. Skyline has only beaten one winning team thus far this season and that team finished with a 6-5 record last week. The Blue Devils not only beat winning teams but playing in the Central District with the likes of Dinwiddie, Thomas Dale, Matoaca and even Meadowbrook it’s safe to say the Blue Devils are battle tested.
If and it’s a big IF for me in this one is IF Skyline is to have a chance it’s going to have to come on offense. I don’t believe their defense will be able to stop the Blue Devil offense that can score in a variety of ways so you’re going to have to outscore them. Can Skyline do this? I have my doubts. I don’t like to knock teams but the facts speak for themselves, 21 points is the season average on offense for these Hawks compared to that of Hopewell’s offensive output.
Last week was just Skyline’s second win in the playoffs in a short history. Hopewell on the other hand has a history of success in the playoffs albeit should the Blue Devils win, it will be the farthest they have reached since 2003. I do believe this will be the case. Coach Irby has his team playing at a high level and they appear to be a team on a mission. Look for the Blue Devils to be playing next week.
Prediction: #1 Hopewell 35, #4 Skyline 17
#10 Atlee(7-4) at #2 Tuscarora(11-0)
Last week the Raiders pulled off a bit of an upset in the closing seconds of the game… Their reward? Playing a team that is thought to be as good as the team that reached the state finals last year, a team that did not need to go to the very end to win.
That’s just what Tuscarora has done all season, win… In fact, in two seasons now they have only lost one game and that was to LC Bird in last year’s 5A State Final. It’s not as if Tuscarora is unbeatable, they have had some close games this season but they always persevere… They had 4 games decided by single digits and two of those games were by one point. That said, if Atlee is to pull of what would be a huge upset it will take a great defensive game and that is one area the Raiders have struggled with this season.
Atlee relies mostly on their offense which has averaged 33 points a game but as said, the defense is the big question mark. The Raiders had to win a shootout last week and they are giving up an average of 27 points per game. In 5 games, the Raiders gave up 34 or more points and against winning teams such as Tuscarora the Raiders were 2-4! Simply put, the odds are not in their favor. The Raiders win last week believe it or not was Atlee’s first win on the road in the playoffs… ever!
Coach Johnson has turned this program around in his time at Atlee, 4-3 in the playoffs, those wins are more than the only other coach to lead the Raiders to the playoffs, Coach Trott. Johnson’s success however pales in comparison to that of Coach Burnett who is in the playoffs for fifth straight season and between Broad Run and Tuscarora has a record of 16-6 with two state titles and three state title game appearances on his resume.
Few teams have been able to match Tuscarora’s offense this season but Atlee is one team with an offense that can. Rasharrd Harris and the Raiders like to air it out and he has plenty of targets to hit with the pass. I expect this to be to be close for a half, maybe even three quarters but ultimately Tuscarora will prove too much for the Raiders and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: #2 Tuscarora 41, #10 Atlee 24
#8 Riverbend(5-6) at #5 Cosby(7-4)
Neither of these teams are supposed to be here, both lower seeds who pulled off wins last week. Riverbend was a bit more shocking, knocking off top seeded Colonial Forge but many last week thought Colonial Forge might be in trouble as Riverbend nearly knocked them off in their regular season meeting. Cosby however was less of a surprise given they had just knocked off Manchester in the regular season finale.
Riverbend is 5-6 with all of their losses coming against winning teams. Only three of their wins this season came up against teams with a winning record. If nothing else, Riverbend is battle tested and don’t be too quick to dismiss the Bears, of those six losses, five came by three points or less. Both teams started off rather slow, the Bears had just one win in their first six games. Cosby was just 3-4 at one point before finishing the season strong.
Cosby with a win would be on the deepest playoff run in their short history. Riverbend however cannot be counted out given the fact they knocked off the top seed last week and how easily they could be 10-1 as opposed to 5-6.
The Bears just got their first playoff win last week but last year they nearly got it against Thomas Dale last year losing in overtime. Many who were on that team returned to action this year with the Bears. Players such as Texas Tech commit lineman Zach Adams and running back Orlando Jones.
The Titans are a team who can win and have shown that this season. Two of their losses came by five points or less and one of those losses came at the very end on a Hail Mary. The Titans have a solid quarterback in Grant Squayers and several who can run the ball such as Trevor Laury and Hunter Edmonds. The Titans also feature tight end/defensive tackle Drew Birchmeier who has committed to Vanderbilt. Plain and simple there is no lack of talent on the Titans.
Playing at home will be big for the Titans but Riverbend has proven that playing on the road is no bother for them, evident by nearly beating Thomas Dale last year in the playoffs and beating Colonial Forge last week. Cosby cannot sleep on the Bears and I don’t believe they will. I believe the Titans will come prepared for a fight and I believe the game goes all four quarters as history has shown us Riverbend does not go quietly. Look for the Titans to take a close one.
Prediction: #5 Cosby 31, #8 Riverbend 28
EXTRA POINTS
Last week I was 10-2 in my predictions as I have averaged 12 wins a week this season. Speaking of the season I am 163-37.
With LC Bird making the playoffs again this season, Coach Bedwell ties Coach Ray Long for most playoff appearances in the Richmond Region.
With Thomas Dale’s win last week, they surpassed Varina for second place in playoff wins in the Richmond Region. If Highland Springs beats Lee-Davis, they too will move past Varina.
Highland Springs and LC Bird have combined for most playoff games in Richmond Region… Bird has played in 61 games, Highland Springs 52. The two could be playing next week in the region final.
I always welcome feedback from the fans and readers as well as suggestions so feel free to e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com and you may also follow me on twitter at @CRF4Dan.
If you feel there was a player at the game you were at this fall that deserves to be recognized for his play, e-mail me at CRF4Dan@aol.com with your case for why that player should be one of the Richmond Gamers for the week.
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