We are always looking for ways to determine what will happen in sports. It's not enough just to go by coaches or the players a team has returning, we need more. Especially at a time like this when there isn't much to talk about regarding say high school football as the school year quickly comes to a close and we have two months before practices begin... So let's do it, let's talk trends...
1986 was the first year that six state titles were awarded by the VHSL. Of those who have won what is now the 6A Title, five are no longer in 6A... Those schools are Hampton, Halifax, Indian River, LC Bird and Pulaski.
7 Schools have won more than one state title in 6A but only one, the Bulldogs of CD Hylton have won three. In fact, there has not been a repeat champion in 6A since CD Hylton in 1998-1999. Hylton and Annandale are the only schools to repeat as champions in 6A. So what does this mean? If you take this into account, the odds are not in Ocean Lakes favor of repeating.
The odds are however in favor of a team that reached the second or third round last year making the playoffs. The last four champions in 6A reached no further than the second/third round. I combined the two rounds obviously because prior to 2014, there were just four rounds and now we have five. So what schools would fit this mold? How about Cosby, Thomas Dale, Patriot, Chantilly, West Springfield, South County, Manchester, Frank Cox, Colonial Forge, James River, Battlefield and Lake Braddock...
Came across another trend... The last six even years in 6A there has been a first time champion... 2014 Ocean Lakes, 2012 LC Bird, 2010 Battlefield, 2008 Oscar Smith, 2006 Osbourn and 2004 Landstown... Now obviously 2015 is an odd numbered year so look for a previous champion to win in 6A.
To counter that argument however, 10 of the 15 champions since 2000 have been first time champions.
There has only been one champion since 2000 that did not qualify for the playoffs the year before winning it all. That is not good news to those who missed out last year. That team that won after not making the playoffs the year before? Thomas Dale! In fact, only four times since 1986 has the champion failed to qualify the year before the playoffs, further backing the odds that the champion in 2015 is someone who made the field in 2014.
Here's a neat one for ya, the last eight years, the champion the year before had eight or more wins in the regular season and if you want to go deeper than that, 14 of the last 17 champions had 8 or more wins the year before. That is good news for schools such as Frank Cox, First Colonial, Ocean Lakes, Oscar Smith, Thomas Dale, Manchester, CD Hylton, Centreville, Westfield, Lake Braddock, South County, West Springfield, Battlefield, Patriot
The final one to throw at you is that 6 of the last 7 champions had a 29.9 or higher rating the year before winning a state title. So who does that apply to? How about Battlefield, Centreville, Hayfield, Lake Braddock, Patriot, South County, West Springfield, Westfield, Yorktown, Colonial Forge, Frank Cox, Thomas Dale, CD Hylton, Ocean Lakes, Oscar Smith, Manchester
So what can we take from this?
Don't count on Ocean Lakes making it back-to-back or that there will be a first-time champion this year.
Count on a team that reached the second or third round last year but no further, plus someone who had a 29.9 rating in 2014 and won 8 or more games in 2014. So who are we talking about then? If you're a fan of one these schools, there is reason to be optimistic... Thomas Dale and Lake Braddock. They have won before, they reached the second or third round last season, had a rating of 29.9 or higher and had 8 or more wins last season. This said, you could look to Oscar Smith, CD Hylton, Centreville and Westfield as teams to watch for as well but the Knights and Bruins are the ones to keep an eye on.
Of course the thing about trends is there is always someone out there looking to buck the trend and come on December 2015, someone may very well buck these trends.
1986 was the first year that six state titles were awarded by the VHSL. Of those who have won what is now the 6A Title, five are no longer in 6A... Those schools are Hampton, Halifax, Indian River, LC Bird and Pulaski.
7 Schools have won more than one state title in 6A but only one, the Bulldogs of CD Hylton have won three. In fact, there has not been a repeat champion in 6A since CD Hylton in 1998-1999. Hylton and Annandale are the only schools to repeat as champions in 6A. So what does this mean? If you take this into account, the odds are not in Ocean Lakes favor of repeating.
The odds are however in favor of a team that reached the second or third round last year making the playoffs. The last four champions in 6A reached no further than the second/third round. I combined the two rounds obviously because prior to 2014, there were just four rounds and now we have five. So what schools would fit this mold? How about Cosby, Thomas Dale, Patriot, Chantilly, West Springfield, South County, Manchester, Frank Cox, Colonial Forge, James River, Battlefield and Lake Braddock...
Came across another trend... The last six even years in 6A there has been a first time champion... 2014 Ocean Lakes, 2012 LC Bird, 2010 Battlefield, 2008 Oscar Smith, 2006 Osbourn and 2004 Landstown... Now obviously 2015 is an odd numbered year so look for a previous champion to win in 6A.
To counter that argument however, 10 of the 15 champions since 2000 have been first time champions.
There has only been one champion since 2000 that did not qualify for the playoffs the year before winning it all. That is not good news to those who missed out last year. That team that won after not making the playoffs the year before? Thomas Dale! In fact, only four times since 1986 has the champion failed to qualify the year before the playoffs, further backing the odds that the champion in 2015 is someone who made the field in 2014.
Here's a neat one for ya, the last eight years, the champion the year before had eight or more wins in the regular season and if you want to go deeper than that, 14 of the last 17 champions had 8 or more wins the year before. That is good news for schools such as Frank Cox, First Colonial, Ocean Lakes, Oscar Smith, Thomas Dale, Manchester, CD Hylton, Centreville, Westfield, Lake Braddock, South County, West Springfield, Battlefield, Patriot
The final one to throw at you is that 6 of the last 7 champions had a 29.9 or higher rating the year before winning a state title. So who does that apply to? How about Battlefield, Centreville, Hayfield, Lake Braddock, Patriot, South County, West Springfield, Westfield, Yorktown, Colonial Forge, Frank Cox, Thomas Dale, CD Hylton, Ocean Lakes, Oscar Smith, Manchester
So what can we take from this?
Don't count on Ocean Lakes making it back-to-back or that there will be a first-time champion this year.
Count on a team that reached the second or third round last year but no further, plus someone who had a 29.9 rating in 2014 and won 8 or more games in 2014. So who are we talking about then? If you're a fan of one these schools, there is reason to be optimistic... Thomas Dale and Lake Braddock. They have won before, they reached the second or third round last season, had a rating of 29.9 or higher and had 8 or more wins last season. This said, you could look to Oscar Smith, CD Hylton, Centreville and Westfield as teams to watch for as well but the Knights and Bruins are the ones to keep an eye on.
Of course the thing about trends is there is always someone out there looking to buck the trend and come on December 2015, someone may very well buck these trends.
