Upsets??? Round 2 Playoffs.

[757FridayNiteZ]

Any UpSets for below games for Friday Night's Playoff games? CalPreps.com Playoff Game Projections: Class 6 VHSL:


Osbourn at Battlefield 7:00pm [Battlefield 31-12]
South Lakes at Madison 7:00pm [Madison 42-8]
Manchester at Western Branch 7:00pm [Manchester 28-21]
South County at Robinson 7:00pm [Robinson 28-27]
James River at Smith 7:00pm [Smith 46-7]
Unity Reed at Freedom 7:00pm [ Freedom 46-13]
West Potomac at Lake Braddock 7:00pm [Lake Braddock 35-21]
Westfield at Centreville 7:00pm [Centreville 24-7]

 

[SPL311U]

I don't think the spread will be that big in the Madison / South Lakes game, the Seahawk's hurry up offense troubled the Warhawks a little bit in the last game. ...and South Lakes scoring a 2 pt. conversion is unlikely... more likely that Hurley (#2) will block another extra point.

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

I picked Unity Reed.

- The Lions beat a team that they lost to 0-36 in the regular season! That kinda of turn around is dangerous in the playoffs. & they appear to have the athletes to compete vs Freedom.

- Freedom struggled vs an aggressive rushing Gar-Field in their loss.

- Unity Reed shut down the run game vs Patriot which had the District Player of the Year. GF was able to do the same vs Freedom.

- This just seems like a game that a statistics driven site like CalPreps.com can't predict well.

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

I don't think the spread will be that big in the Madison / South Lakes game, the Seahawk's hurry up offense troubled the Warhawks a little bit in the last game. ...and South Lakes scoring a 2 pt. conversion is unlikely... more likely that Hurley (#2) will block another extra point.

CalPreps.com reminds me of the VHSL reference.com site. Heavily statistics driven websites miss these types of things. BUT they are good starting points for our debates and discussions.

 

[PhoenixHS]

Any UpSets for below games for Friday Night's Playoff games? CalPreps.com Playoff Game Projections: Class 6 VHSL:


Osbourn at Battlefield 7:00pm [Battlefield 31-12]
South Lakes at Madison 7:00pm [Madison 42-8]
Manchester at Western Branch 7:00pm [Manchester 28-21]
South County at Robinson 7:00pm [Robinson 28-27]
James River at Smith 7:00pm [Smith 46-7]
Unity Reed at Freedom 7:00pm [ Freedom 46-13]
West Potomac at Lake Braddock 7:00pm [Lake Braddock 35-21]
Westfield at Centreville 7:00pm [Centreville 24-7]

I would say that the most likely upset is West Po over LB, as West Po has been inconsistent and has shown that they can compete with the rest of region C with wins over SoCo and Fairfax late in the year. A 14 point spread is odd for that game.... I would say that a 7 point spread is far more likely. Robinson SoCo will absolutely not be that close. West Po was able to run through their team and score multiple times through the air with a WR at QB, and SoCo's offense has been MIA as of late. I don't see a close game there, and my prediction would be closer to 42-24. I agree with what had been previously stated about Madison-SL, and the only other one that looks a little off to me is Manchester-WB. Assuming that an over-hyped and weak 9-2 WB will hold the Lancers, a team that averages 43 ppg, to just 28 points is absurd to me looking at the results of previous games, but Region A is my weak spot in 6A, so who knows? One thing I know for certain, however, is that Unity Reed isn't going to beat Freedom unless they have the pass rush game on point. After having gone back and watched the Freedom-GF game, I agree that GF seemed to have gotten the Freedom QB flustered, and the easiest way to achieve that is by rushing him and not giving him a chance to throw for chunk plays. In fact, that was West Po's defensive gameplan that beat SoCo. Anything is possible in HS football, but I doubt that Unity Reed can put it all together. They have the potential to, but it's unlikely.

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

I just noticed that Freedom also beat Unity by a 0-35 delta. Similar to Patriot regular season score. I am just wondering what caused the turn around for the last half of the season for Unity Reed?

 

[falcettik]

Your use of the word "upset" implies the underdog pulls out a win. Although I don't see any of the favorites losing, with possibly one exception, a few could cover the stated spread. My one exception would be WP over LB because WP seems to be putting things in order once their "normal" QB returned. If I had to pick a second upset, it might be SC over ROB-but that depends on if Spaulding plays. If he is out, ROB wins. I don't know if he is back or not, but after he suffered a concussion the SC offense has just not been the same (this is just a hypothesis since I don't know if/when Spaulding returned or if SC's offensive woes are due to something else).

 

[matthew328826]

Your use of the word "upset" implies the underdog pulls out a win. Although I don't see any of the favorites losing, with possibly one exception, a few could cover the stated spread. My one exception would be WP over LB because WP seems to be putting things in order once their "normal" QB returned. If I had to pick a second upset, it might be SC over ROB-but that depends on if Spaulding plays. If he is out, ROB wins. I don't know if he is back or not, but after he suffered a concussion the SC offense has just not been the same (this is just a hypothesis since I don't know if/when Spaulding returned or if SC's offensive woes are due to something else).

Agree - the most likely would be SoCo over Robinson or West Potomac over Lake Braddock. Those teams in Occoquan Region 6C seem to be more evenly matched than the others across the board in Class 6, which seems a bit odd because some might think that is the case in 6B or 6D, whereas in years past the Centreville / Westfield match-up would sometimes be viewed as a toss-up.

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

Always hoping for a fully healthy set of teams in the playoffs just from a fan perspective, that game would be more entertaining with Spaulding in it.

Because Westfield always elevates their play in the post Season, I expect that Centreville game will also be closer than the CalPreps.com spread.

 

[SPL311U]

Always hoping for a fully healthy set of teams in the playoffs just from a fan perspective, that game would be more entertaining with Spaulding in it.

Because Westfield always elevates their play in the post Season, I expect that Centreville game will also be closer than the CalPreps.com spread.

In my mind the Westfield / Centreville game hinges on two things: 1) can Westfield score points on the Centreville defense? and 2) can they contain Isaiah Ragland? ...and if Westfield decides to have more players go both ways than usual, does their conditioning allow them to keep performing at a high level on both sides of the ball without injury. (same goes for Centreville but I don't see them as needing that approach as much).

@facettik may have some thoughts on this too.

 

[falcettik]

Always hoping for a fully healthy set of teams in the playoffs just from a fan perspective, that game would be more entertaining with Spaulding in it.

Because Westfield always elevates their play in the post Season, I expect that Centreville game will also be closer than the CalPreps.com spread.

757, I hope you are right. But as a devoted WF fan, I am less than optimistic because the WF offense has gone AWOL most of this season.

 

[falcettik]

In my mind the Westfield / Centreville game hinges on two things: 1) can Westfield score points on the Centreville defense? and 2) can they contain Isaiah Ragland? ...and if Westfield decides to have more players go both ways that usual, does their conditioning allow them to keep performing at a high level on both sides of the ball without injury. (same goes for Centreville but I don't see them as needing that approach as much).

@facettik may have some thoughts on this too.

SPL311U, since you asked....with regard to the WF offense, see my response to 757. It has been frustrating on offense this year. Yes, containing Ragland is going to be an issue. He is certainly quite good, and the loss of Thomas on the D-line hurts. Having players go both ways has been done much more often than usual this year, as well as moving multiple players around, but that just wears them out too much. IMO, they do not have the conditioning to do it all game against a high level opponent. The MLB, Yaokouame, has also been getting banged up and that is not helping. All that said, everything must go right for WF to have a chance. I hate to admit this, but it is what it is.

 

[757FridayNiteZ]

Now you know why I don't play the Pickem contests!! I couldn't have been more wrong with the Freedom vs Unity Reed game.. I think it was 56-7.

The group selectived Western Branch & West Potomac & got it right! It was fun to do.. So, I will post this again for next week & I might add the other Class 5 and/or 4 games since we are narrowing down the group.

 

[SPL311U]

757... didn't think James Madison would be right on the money with 48 points... but there were a couple of second half touchdowns by back ups and JV kids.