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Predictions VHSL Football Picks for Friday 10/8/21 & Saturday 10/9/21

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Before we get to the second weekend of games in the month of October 2021, let's review how the Picks went from Thursday night and how they look for the season between VaPreps Publisher Matthew Hatfield and his ESPN Radio 94.1 Saturday morning co-host, Coach Ed Young..

Hatfield's Thursday, Oct. 7 Total: 2-1 (67%)
Hatfield's Tidewater Mark for Oct. 7: 0-1

Hatfield's Season Total: 161-37 (81.3%)
Hatfield's Tidewater Season Total: 94-18 (83.9%)


Coach Young's Tidewater Mark for Oct. 7: 0-1
Coach Young's Tidewater Season Total: 88-24 (78.6%)


Game of the Week: Great American Rivalry Series Renewed on Saturday 10/9/21

Hampton (5-0) at Phoebus (5-0) . . . Two of Virginia's most storied programs collide yet again, part of the Great American Rivalry Series that has often shifted to Saturday afternoons at Darling Stadium in recent years from their Friday nights of 8000+ packed in the stadium to witness two perennial title contenders. Hampton, which has won a VHSL record 17 State Championships, saw longtime Head Coach Mike Smith pick up milestone win No. 500 earlier this season. Smith, who began his tenure at the helm of the Crabbers in 1971, has not only more wins than anyone else in VHSL history, but 12 state titles as well.

Phoebus is no slouch when it comes to putting hardware in the trophy case. While Phoebus last won a State Championship in 2011, it is more recent than Hampton's drought that extends back to 2005 during Tyrod Taylor's junior season. The Phantoms have seven state titles dating back to 2001 with four under the late great Bill Dee and three under Stan Sexton. Coach Jeremy Blunt, who won a state title as a player, has kept them in Championship contention with State Semis losses in 2015 (to Magna Vista) and 2016 (to Blacksburg) to eventual State Champs, along with falling to Heritage-Lynchburg in the 2018 Class 3 State Final.

Although Hampton leads the all-time series 32-21, the Phantoms have been much more dominant lately, winning 14 of the past 17 meetings with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits over the Crabbers in that stretch. For the Crabbers to keep that from happening again, they'll need their defense to stiffen when Phoebus gets in the red area. Seniors in LB Marcus Triggs and DE Jaysun Simmons will be key to that effort for a Hampton team allowing just 6.5 points per game in contests that they've played. However, Phoebus is just as tough defensively in limiting opponents to 4.5 PPG with takeaway threats - like DB's Donald Gatling (2 INT TD's vs. Lake Taylor) and Darius Matthews (3 INT's) - on the back end as well as a fierce disruptor in the trenches with DT Mychal McMullin (6-2, 285), a scholarship level talent from the Class of 2023.

The real discrepancy is on offense, where Phoebus is piling up 47.5 PPG and they have a host of weapons surrounding QB Mark Wagner, namely Gatling, Kymari Gray (12Rec. 282Yds. 11 TD's), Jalen Mayo (13Rec. 269Yds. 3 TD's) and a good ground game with Ty'Reon Taylor (56Car. 373Yds. 8 TD's). Hampton comes in averaging 25.8 points per game, and while alternating QB's in senior Torian Howerton and sophomore Khaioz Watford, they've been a bit inconsistent sustaining drives this year. Even though Howerton had 114 yards rushing and a touchdown in their 19-6 comeback win over Warwick back on Sept. 24, the Crabbers were out-gained 214-177 in that contest and ran just eight plays from scrimmage the entire first half.

Matt Hatfield Says - Phoebus 34-7
Coach Ed Young Says – Phoebus 28-14


Must-See Action for Friday 10/8/21:

King's Fork (4-0) at Deep Creek (4-1) . . .
Hornets QB Tony Barnes has thrown for 334 yards and 4 TD's with no intercepts to go with 490 yards rushing and eight more scores. The combo of Virginia Tech commit Kyree Moyston and Tavias Higgs have combined to sack the quarterback 15 times, so that'll be the matchup to watch - how well Deep Creek's o-line blocks for Barnes to be a dual-threat against that pass rush - and it may determine the outcome in this matchup of Region 4A title contenders.

Matt Hatfield Says - King's Fork 24-20
Coach Ed Young Says – King’s Fork 28-22


Ocean Lakes (4-1) at Kempsville (3-1) . . . You have to go back to 2005 to find the last on-field victory for Kempsville over Ocean Lakes, when the Chiefs edged the Dolphins 23-21. Ocean Lakes kept it on the ground exclusively, with no pass attempts, in last week's 27-12 loss to Green Run. If QB Landon Spell returns from injury, it'll allow them to diversify the attack and get sophomore pass catcher Ryley McIntosh more involved. NaiQuan Washington-Pearce ran for 291 yards and 3 TD's in a 55-14 rout of Tallwood for the Chiefs. Can Kempsville run the ball effectively against an Ocean Lakes defense - headed up by hard-hitting linebacker Jahleel Culbreath - that held Green Run to just 52 yards rushing a week ago?

Matt Hatfield Says - Kempsville 20-16
Coach Ed Young Says – Ocean Lakes 28-20


Western Branch (5-1) at Indian River (2-1) . . . Even in just three games, sophomore QB Tyler Allison of Indian River has already thrown for 459 yards and 5 TD's. He's also been picked off five times, so Bruins defenders like Kaleb Broadbent (4 INT's) and Paul Billups as well as LB Desmond Cook will try to make him pay when he tests them down the field. Moreover, this one could come down to how well the Braves tackle Western Branch RB Shimique Blizzard (91Att. 701Yds. 9 TD's), who figures to be in pursuit of the area and Southeastern District rushing crown by season's end.

Matt Hatfield Says - Western Branch 27-19
Coach Ed Young Says – Indian River 22-18


Heritage-Lynchburg (4-1) at Brookville (3-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Brookville 28-24


Heritage-Leesburg (6-0) at Broad Run (4-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Broad Run 42-21


Hopewell (3-0) at Dinwiddie (3-0) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Dinwiddie 27-20
Byron Jones Says – Dinwiddie 30-28
Danny Lewis Says – Dinwiddie 34-24


Patrick Henry-Roanoke (4-1) at Hidden Valley (6-0) . . . Led by Ball State commit Ashton Carroll, the Titans are seeking their first seven-game winning streak of any kind since 2014. Their biggest task will be slowing down a Patrick Henry squad that shut out Blacksburg 42-0 a week ago.

Matt Hatfield Says –
Hidden Valley 30-21


Amelia (5-0) at Nottoway (4-0) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Nottoway 21-19
Marsel T. Mason Says – Amelia 20-14


Riverheads (5-0) at Buffalo Gap (4-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Riverheads 38-13
Marsel T. Mason Says – Riverheads 56-14


Battlefield (5-0) at John Champe (4-2) . . . The Bobcats are playing real crisp football right now, but if an upset can be pulled by someone, watch out for Jason Dawson’s Knights here at home in a ‘live’ underdog spot.

Matt Hatfield Says – John Champe 25-24 in OT


Alexandria (4-1) at Lake Braddock (4-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Lake Braddock 40-27


Centreville (4-1) at Chantilly (4-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Centreville 26-17


Highland Springs (3-2) at Patrick Henry-Ashland (4-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Highland Springs 35-14


Potomac Falls (4-1) at Independence (4-0) . . . The Panthers, with Davion Moore excelling both as a pass catcher and punter, are a nice story. However, coming up with the defensive solution to slow down a multi-dimensional Independence attack led by Florida State recruit Brian Courtney is a tall order for the visitors in this spot.

Matt Hatfield Says –
Independence 56-18


Ridgeview (5-0) at Union (4-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Union 28-17


Graham (4-0) at Bluefield, WV (0-1) . . .

Matt Hatfield Says –
Graham 24-14


Virginia High (4-0) at Honaker (3-2) . . . The Bearcats come in putting up a remarkable 53.8 points per game with Stevie Thomas churning out big yardage game in and game out from the running back spot. Honaker can put up stellar numbers on offense, too, as they come in averaging 34 PPG, but will need the defense to step up more than it did in a close loss to Chilhowie a week ago.

Matt Hatfield Says – VA High 46-30


Rest of Tidewater Slate for Friday 10/8/21:

Kellam (2-3) at Green Run (5-0) . . .
To close up the 2020-21 campaign back on April 1st, it was Green Run routing Kellam 51-6 as Stallions QB Xavier Davis tossed four touchdowns before half-time, two apiece to Quedrion Miles and super sophomore Keylen 'Brodie' Adams. All three individuals are back for the crew on Dahlia Drive that's putting up 42.4 points per game.

Matt Hatfield Says - Green Run 56-14
Coach Ed Young Says – Green Run 40-12


Churchland (4-1) at Maury (3-1) . . . Back on April 1st, Maury won its fifth straight in the series, defeating the Truckers 40-14 on a night when they gained 211 yards before half-time. This is certainly the biggest test yet for a Churchland defense that has yet to give up more than 20 points in a contest this season.

Matt Hatfield Says - Maury 31-10
Coach Ed Young Says – Maury 28-7


Lafayette (4-0) at Smithfield (1-2) . . . Rams QB Luke Hanson, a UVA baseball commit, has already thrown for 610 yards and 10 TD's this season, while Smithfield sophomore QB Keith Eure threw for 219 yards - with Dereyon Goodwin (6Rec. 186Yds. 3 TD's vs. Poquoson) quickly becoming his favorite target - a week ago. So expect plenty of passing, but if the Packers are unable to stop Lafayette's punishing ground attack, it'll be mighty hard to achieve their first victory in this series since 2012.

Matt Hatfield Says - Lafayette 48-20
Coach Ed Young Says – Lafayette 40-12


Norview (3-2) at Booker T. Washington (3-1) . . . Can the Bookers get to 4-1 for the first time since 2014? Tailback Jerome Jones has been in a groove for the Bookers, who scored 40 in last week's win over Lake Taylor, while Norview QB Shayden Deloach tries to help the Pilots follow up their 40-point performance in a win over Manor with another key Eastern District triumph.

Matt Hatfield Says - Booker T. Washington 33-31
Coach Ed Young Says – Booker T. Washington 24-14


Grafton (1-4) at Tabb (0-5) . . . Tabb looks to avoid its first 0-6 start since 2017 and the plus is here that they have beaten the Grafton seven of the last nine times, including four straight.

Matt Hatfield Says - Tabb 24-12
Coach Ed Young Says – Tabb 30-14


Poquoson (2-2) at Jamestown (1-3) . . . Poquoson, which squandered a 16-0 lead against Smithfield, should not have a similar outcome against a Jamestown team that last beat the Islanders in 2012 by a count of 13-9.

Matt Hatfield Says - Poquoson 27-7
Coach Ed Young Says – Poquoson 28-18


York (4-1) at New Kent (2-3) . . . Believe it or not, Jordin Lennon of York could get to the 1000-yard mark before the end of this game. The Davidson commit has run the football 83 times for 817 yards and 14 TD's. New Kent is giving up over 37 points per game during a three-game losing skid.

Matt Hatfield Says - York 40-16
Coach Ed Young Says – York 42-12


Bayside (4-1) at Tallwood (1-4) . . . You don't have to remind Jon White's Marlins that a 19-yard pick-six with six seconds left dashed their playoff hopes in a 20-14 loss to Tallwood in their regular season finale back on April 1st. Bayside might be the ones doing the pick-six damage after six interceptions, two of which they returned for touchdowns, in their 47-0 shutout of Princess Anne a week ago.

Matt Hatfield Says - Bayside 20-13
Coach Ed Young Says – Bayside 33-8


Cox (3-2) at Landstown (0-4) . . . The Eagles were missing 11 starters, including three starting offensive linemen, due to COVID protocols in an unexpected 32-22 loss to First Colonial last week. Cox, under Pro Football Hall of Famer Alan Faneca, is surging, having won three in a row as a 17-13 victory over Bayside following an 0-2 start turned their season around.

Matt Hatfield Says - Cox 21-7
Coach Ed Young Says – Cox 18-16


First Colonial (1-5) at Salem-VB (2-2) . . . Ty Traister got his first win at the helm of First Colonial a week ago, but it'll take an even greater effort for the Patriots to beat the Sun Devils for the first time since 2004 and snap a 15-game losing streak in the series.

Matt Hatfield Says - Salem 22-8
Coach Ed Young Says - Salem 35-0


Granby (0-4) at Manor (2-2) . . . Don't sleep on the Mustangs as QB Raquan Mills (15 of 27 for 436 yards and 4 TD's) and WR Amarion Collins (11Rec. 297Yds. 4 TD's) are making plays for new Head Coach Jelani Fair.

Matt Hatfield Says - Manor 29-15
Coach Ed Young Says – Manor 42-16


Denbigh (0-5) at Gloucester (0-5) . . . Oddly enough, Denbigh won four straight in this series from 2012-15 before Gloucester responded with four consecutive victories in the series from 2015-19.

Matt Hatfield Says - Gloucester 23-6
Coach Ed Young Says – Gloucester 30-28


Hickory (1-4) at Grassfield (0-6) . . . If the Hawks are to be one of the eight teams that make the playoffs out of the 10 schools that play in Region 5A, this is a game they need to win over Grassfield. Hickory's last breakthrough in this series was 2008, prevailing by a count of 19-17 in just the second year of existence for Grassfield.

Matt Hatfield Says - Grassfield 15-10
Coach Ed Young Says – Grassfield 28-8


Arcadia (0-5) at Bruton (2-3) . . . It's doubtful that the Firebirds have an answer for Bruton RB Trey Corbin (62Car. 502Yds. 6 TD's) in this one.

Matt Hatfield Says - Bruton 30-13
Coach Ed Young Says – Bruton 36-6


King William (3-1) at Norcom (0-3) . . . While one might think that the Greyhounds have a distinct athleticism edge, consider that King William's backfield is rather lethal with Wake Forest commit Demond Claiborne at running back and dual-threat QB Jayveon Robinson (16 of 28 for 224 yards and 5 TD's passing; 20Car. 366Yds. 7 TD's).

Matt Hatfield Says - King William 23-21
Coach Ed Young Says – King William 28-26


Lake Taylor (2-3) at Mills Godwin (2-3) . . . It’s the first time since 1987 that Mills Godwin has played another from the Tidewater area as they faced Western Branch that year. Uncharacteristically, the Titans are giving up 41 points per game this season and not looking like the same squad that played in the last three Class 4 State Championship games.

Matt Hatfield Says – Lake Taylor 42-21
Coach Ed Young Says – Lake Taylor 48-20
Danny Lewis Says – Lake Taylor 41-28
Byron Jones Says – Lake Taylor 38-17


More 757 Action for Saturday 10/9/21:

Warwick (3-3) at Woodside (3-1) . . .
When these two teams met back in March, it was Warwick winning 21-6, despite being flagged a whopping 27 times for 256 yards. Woodside didn't help its cause with nearly as many turnovers (5) as total yards (6) that evening. That marked the first win for Warwick in the series since 2008, ending an 11-game losing skid to the Wolverines.

Matt Hatfield Says - Warwick 15-13
Coach Ed Young Says – Woodside 24-18


Lakeland (2-3) at Nansemond River (1-3) . . . The Cavaliers are averaging 37.8 points per game, but giving up 34.8 PPG as they try to get back to .500 following a 73-50 loss at Deep Creek. Nansemond River has dropped three straight since a 28-13 season-opening win over Bethel.

Matt Hatfield Says - Lakeland 22-16
Coach Ed Young Says – Nansemond River 30-28
 
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