3 Down, Can Bird Do 4?

[CRF4Dan]

I thought about this Saturday on the drive home from Charlottesville...

What LC Bird has done the past three seasons is pretty impressive... especially considering the track record of the region in state finals lets alone playoffs. i got to thinking about who would be the contenders next season in 5A from the region and of course, it's hard to be pick against Bird. You'd be crazy to do so... that said, keep in mind, in the history of the VHSL a team has won four consecutive championships twice...

Hampton from 1995-1998
Phoebus from 2008-2011

Can LC Bird join this elite club next season...?

 

[GilliamRatings]

Don't confuse the probability of A, with the probability of A given B.

If all teams were equal the probability of a given team winning the next four straight championships would be 1 out of 52^4.

That's 1 in 7,311,616.

However, the probability of winning four, given that you've already won three is just 1 in 52.

Not all teams are equal, however, so we can resort to experimental probability.

In the history of the playoffs

13,500 teams have started a season with a chance to win the next four state championships. 2 have done it. So a random team who didn't win the state championship this year have about a 1 in 6,750 chance of winning the next four.

However of the four previous teams to have a shot to go for 4, 2 of them did it. That's a 1 in 2 chance.

Another way to look at is this. A random team at the start of the season has less than a 2% chance of being state champs, but a random team in the past who had won three straight titles had a 50% chance of doing it.

Bird's got a lot returning, but it's tough, tough, tough to win a state title. Everything's got to go right, even if you seemingly have all the parts at the start of the season. I think expecting Bird to win it would be very foolish, but you know they'll be in the mix, along with a lot of the same teams that were in the mix this year, and a couple others we weren't expecting. 5A is very competitive and it'll be fun. To be honest, I can't wait.

 

[TBone]

Re: 3 Down, Can Bird Do 4? So what else about next year?

Mind as well say Bird will be in the mix as long as that school exists, seriously. Bird has LONG been synonymous with postseason and deep runs, at least compared to many other programs, it has to be expected there by now. Same time what about everyone else? How will the rest of the Richmond teams fare? Norview's season was special this year and the coach there seems to have kids believing again. Salem-VB will make another run? Could Indian River with a lot returning be a name to throw into the conversation hat of winning at least 5A South? Dig in guys!

 

[CRF4Dan]

Re: 3 Down, Can Bird Do 4? So what else about next year?

Out of the Richmond Region Id say watch out for Highland Springs,Henrico, Hermitage and thats it Aside from Bird unless someone surprises like Varina who drops to 5A. Manchester moves to 6A and Atlee moves to 5A North.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Re: 3 Down, Can Bird Do 4? So what else about next year?

5A loses both Freedoms, Mount Vernon, Manchester, Gret Bridge, Kellam and Clover Hill. The only real threat among that bunch would have been Manchester.

The pick up Nansemond River, J.R. Tucker and Glen Allen from 4A. None of those look likely to be in the state championship hunt. A slightly more decent crew drops down from 6A in Varina, Patrick Henry Roanoke, Kecoughtan and Bethel. While Varina did not feel like a threat this past year, we know Varina's history. Kecoughtan won 9 games last year. So dangerous. Patrick Henry has had 5 straight seasons with 6 or more wins. Bethel has gone at least 5-5 every year since 2006.

Just based on what they've done lately, no idea what's coming back to most of these schools, here's my top ten for each 5A region:

5A North:
1. Briar Woods
2. Tuscarora
3. Massaponax
4. Stone Bridge
5. Broad Run
6. North Stafford
7. Atlee
8. Patrick Henry-Roanoke
9. Falls Church
10. Potomac
HM Potomac Falls
HM Wakefield

Top 6 or 7 really look interesting to me. Wakefield had a great season this year, but I need one more year to be convinced.

5A South:
1. L.C. Bird
2. Hermitage
3. Salem
4. Highland Springs
5. Hampton
6. Varina
7. Douglas Freeman
8. Norview
9. Meadowbrook
10. Mills Godwin
HM. Kecoughtan
HM. Henrico
HM. Indian River
HM. Green Run


My honorable mentions had nice season's this past year, and this year we'll see if they were flukes or if they're about to take the programs in new directions.


This post was edited on 12/17 7:07 AM by GilliamRatings

 

[GilliamRatings]

Re: 3 Down, Can Bird Do 4? So what else about next year?

How about this for your playoff bracket in 2015:

North:

1 Briar Woods vs. 16 Thomas Edison
8 Patrick Henry-Roan vs. 9 Mountain View

4 Stone Bridge vs. 13 Brooke Point
5 Broad Run vs. 12 Potomac Falls

2 Tuscarora vs. 15 Patrick Henry-Ash
7 Atlee vs. 10 Falls Church

3 Massaponax vx. 14 Wakefield
6 North Stafford vs. Potomac

South West

1 L.C. Bird vs. 8 Henrico
4 Varina vs. 5 Douglas Freeman

2 Hermitage vs. 7 Mills Godwin
3 HIghland Springs vs. 6 Meadowbrook

South East
1 Salem vs. 8 Indian River
4 Kecoughtan vs. 5 Green Run

2 Hampton vs. 7 Nansemond Riverl
3 Norview vs. 6 Bethel

 

[YHSFB01]

Re: 3 Down, Can Bird Do 4? So what else about next year?

Wakefield should be good. They have a number of key guys returning and a huge Freshman class. I wouldn't be surprised if they got bumped up to 6A within the next couple of years.

 

[GilliamRatings]

That's exciting.

Man, they had a LONG run there of not winning more than 3 games (maybe the longest in the state), I was so surprised to see them win so many this year. I hope they have a lot of success. Every school deserves that once in a while.

 

[prime221]

I'll just say this 'they have a lot coming back including their QB and possibly the best line backing core on the area. One of the rb's and 2 of ther top 3 receivers return as well. There is also most likely a transfer that I can't speak about right now but he was one of the top players in the area and his family is moving into the Bird zone as we speak. 4 is possible.

This post was edited on 12/17 9:00 PM by prime221

This post was edited on 12/17 9:06 PM by prime221

 

[nohokies69]

moving, let me guess, Beach Realty?

you talking about the WR from HSHS or the RB from Manchester, or the guy from Brookville?. You guys are starting early. Beach must have some vacancies.

 

[DEVILSLB99]

Re: moving, let me guess, Beach Realty?

LOL!!! The love between Dale and Bird is evident here...

 

[nohokies69]

just facts man


They still have to be coached which they are well, but its an easier job with selected talent.

Im just glad our title pushed them to this

 

[GilliamRatings]

Re: moving, let me guess, Beach Realty?


Maybe, all of them?

 

[nohokies69]

Probably Matt

You have the inside scoop

 

[GilliamRatings]

Re: Probably Matt

Actually, I don't have any inside information on this kind of stuff (If it happened after 1994 any story I'm telling you is just heresy, or totally misremembered crap). I didn't talk to one of Bird's coaches all season. Generally, if I know something it came by way of my father. If you want to know anything on Orange County, I'm the guy to ask, though. Once the Hornets get to the state finals, you'll really see crazy GilliamRatings posts.

 

[nohokies69]

I see all the troops have rallied and lurking above

One even made an account. Cant wait for that response.

 

[prime221]

Re: just facts man

Yep pushed us to get 3. Thanks a lot. lol

 

[prime221]

Re: moving, let me guess, Beach Realty?

Not throwing shade here but you can question many teams in the area including Dale and trust me I do have the scoop on that but at the end of the day all players have to be coached. As long as the paperwork is legal it is what is doesn't matter the school.

This post was edited on 12/18 8:09 PM by prime221

 

[nohokies69]

lmao, the scoop?

Please, do tell. You trying to go down the QB road? Richmond Street off Osbourne. Next. How about your PHS connection? He still commute or did he go back?

 

[nohokies69]

it is sad really

but, I can look at my ring and know we did it with our players. How many of those three do you have?

 

[prime221]

Re: lmao, the scoop?

I could say the say thing about Dale and other schools in this area but unlike you my friend I'm not going to put anybody on blast but trust me I could. Dale is is not innocent my friend and trust me I know just as much as you do and the thing is if the VHSL does not have a problem it then let it go. I wonder if it were any team other than Bird would you had even brought this up.AS FAR AS YOUR 1 RING YOU CAN KEEP IT MY FRIEND.Let me know when you win another one. Let it go.

This post was edited on 12/19 7:37 AM by prime221

 

[nohokies69]

You have nothing "my friend"

I repeat, nothing on Dale. The AD and Admns at TD will not let that sort of crap go on. Any transfer/new student, especially an athlete, are physically checked by individuals at the school. You keep dodging the issue at hand by throwing out "other schools". You played two schools in the playoffs that have the same "transfer" luck as you guys do. If they roll to a ring i'll say as much. Let me know when 'YOU", win one.

 

[cutnjump]

What do you have?....

If you got proof use it. Otherwise you come off as just whining while wishing you were relevant when you are not.

 

[prime221]

Re: You have nothing "my friend"

Only because I've had and still have family members playing for Dale now that you coach will I let this go. But trust me I do know and if you don't it's on you..You can stay mad my friend. Seems that you are the only on here crying. Haven't heard you cry this much since y'all actually won the ring, and I guess you will still be mad at the possibility of players on Dale legally ending up at Bird and Meadowbrook next year but I guess maybe you know that too.Take this conversation that you chose to blow up out of nothing and your ring and have a good one.

This post was edited on 12/19 10:03 AM by prime221

This post was edited on 12/19 10:06 AM by prime221

 

[nohokies69]

and you are relevant how?

ignore button is a wonderful option. Good day

 

[cutnjump]

Re: and you are relevant how?

Just trying to help you out sport so you don't continue to look pathetic. You have a good day as well.

 

[nohokies69]

Re: and you are relevant how?


Prime knows what im talking about.

 

[nohokies69]

here is the problem

Everything was fine. We were content playing 6A ball, but you guys are getting greedy. Getting a little to cocky with this transfer stuff. Keep your pipelines out of Chester and everything will be fine. We know all about people talking to the kids to come to LCB. The handlers are getting sloppy. Trust me when I tell you, this will not end well for you guys.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Redskins fans:

You guys ever noticed that sometimes in a big rivalry one team's fans get more obsessed with the other team than their own team? I mean, like the Washington Redskins fans are much more obsessed with Dallas than they are with Washington. To the point that many of them are hoping the Redskins lose tomorrow so that Philadelphia will have a shot at passing Dallas in the standings. I wonder how a group of fans gets so obsessed with their rivals.
This post was edited on 12/19 11:35 PM by GilliamRatings

 

[nohokies69]

Matt

it is not called obsession, its called right and wrong. Like I keep saying, keep that business up Route 10 and out our yard

 

[GilliamRatings]

Re: Matt

Definition of obsession: an idea or thought that continually preoccupies or intrudes on a person's mind.

I'd love to see some Redskins fans post stuff on Facebook about their team instead of memes about Tony Romo being a choker, but it isn't going to happen while the Cowboys are better than the Redskins. I'm not really sure what issue the Redskins are right on that the Cowboys are wrong on, but I assume many of them do see it that way. The Redskins did come through for the Cowboys in a big way today. A lot of Redskin fans on my Facebook page were not happy with the win since it helped out ol' Dallas.
This post was edited on 12/20 9:50 PM by GilliamRatings

 

[nohokies69]

and that would be a definition suited for you

You can dance around the theme of this all you want, but you're not around here anymore. You are being told whats going on not seeing it first hand. Like I said, it wasn't a problem until the talking comes at our doorstep. We will revisit all this come the off-season this summer. See if any of my "allegations" have legs.

 

[GilliamRatings]

I own my obsessions.

I can tell you exactly what I'm obsessed with.

High school football (because of my past playing, coaching, and my father coaching-and all the numbers involved), girls cross country (because of my daughter), rock music (see my list of over 7000 greatest rock related songs on rate your music), Appalachian Trail (I plan to hike it in six years when I retire), food (see my stomach).

I think the history on my computer would bear this out (let's not talk about my preoccupation with midget wrestling, that's some guy who breaks into my house in the middle of the night and uses my computer-honest).
This post was edited on 12/21 8:27 AM by GilliamRatings

This post was edited on 12/21 8:29 AM by GilliamRatings

 

[blue67ccm]

Sure They Can....

Can Bird do 4? Absolutely. It would be stupid to say no, especially after their work in the postseason this year.

Reading this thread (sniping in the Southside aside...), I think Atlee is being sold short. They'll lose some quality talent to graduation, but there's a very good crew coming in. Getting out of the sledgehammer-fest that is "5A South Central" will aid them.

On the other hand in Hanover County, PH moving to a Capital District schedule could hamper their playoff hopes. When rebuilding a program, I'd rather face JM, TJ, Tucker and not Highland Springs, Varina, & Henrico. They may be better next year and end with a worse record.

Can't wait 'til August.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Re: Sure They Can....

I don't think anyone is selling Atlee short. They're moving to 5A North, so they won't be mixing it up with the rest of the Richmond Schools, so they're being lost in the discussion, but the Raiders ought to be on the top tier level with Tuscarora, Briar Woods, Massaponax, Broad Run, etc. I think it'll be a cluster of good teams up there again, and I'd give Atlee close to as good a chance as anyone. They've got to work on their run defense, if they want to beat those guys, though. Many of those teams are very "Bird-like" in their offensive schemes.


I still think when the final four is set next year, however, the favorite is going to be which ever team emerges from Richmond area. They will have beaten three really good teams to get there. Bird definitely had tough roads the last two years.

This post was edited on 12/28 3:02 AM by GilliamRatings