Chancellor has 273 points right now. They will beat spotsy and get 24 (22 + 2). So 297 before the other points get added. Riverbend is off so no points there. I will give them 2 for Mponx win (although that one could go other way). 1 point for EV, 2 for Liberty, I don't have James River beating Bird, so I did not give them the point there. 2 more for Courtland and 2 more for JM.. so 9 more.. so 306.. (I had them at 305.97).
Louisa has 268 points right now, they will get 32 with a win (22 + 10).. So 300. The other points... Courtland 2, Alberma 2, Powhatan 2 and Orange 2, So 8 more points.. 308. If Sherando wins that's another 2. Even if James beats bird it only gives them another point.
This seems like a done deal to me. I don't see any scenario where they have 309?