4a East (19-20 pod) updated ratings

[DEVILSLB99]

1 Dinwiddie 30.44
2 Eastern View 30.44
3 Chancellor 30.33
4 Louisa 29.77 (had 30 at first)
5 Monacan 27.4
6 Powhatan 26.778
7 King George 24.11
8 Courtland 23.22

 

[OCBoy]

Wow that's real tight coming down to the final week

 

[DEVILSLB99]

Wow that's real tight coming down to the final week

What's gonna push Dinwiddie over the edge is the fact they play a 4 win 5a in MBK while Chancellor plays a 1 win 3A Spotsy and EV plays a 3 win 4a in Kettle Run..Very close, but all roads lead through Dinwiddie County in 4A East

 

[OCBoy]

What's gonna push Dinwiddie over the edge is the fact they play a 4 win 5a in MBK while Chancellor plays a 1 win 3A Spotsy and EV plays a 3 win 4a in Kettle Run..Very close, but all roads lead through Dinwiddie County in 4A East

So dinwiddie ev chancellor 1,2,3 if they win pretty much

 

[DEVILSLB99]

So dinwiddie ev chancellor 1,2,3 if they win pretty much

Yep. Chancellor would have been the #1 seed if they would have beaten James River. Looks like they will get a 2nd round rematch with Eastern View.

 

[Cpep_greatest]

What's gonna push Dinwiddie over the edge is the fact they play a 4 win 5a in MBK while Chancellor plays a 1 win 3A Spotsy and EV plays a 3 win 4a in Kettle Run..Very close, but all roads lead through Dinwiddie County in 4A East

Not sure if this is correct but doesn't the out of district teams that ev and dinwiddie play determine this final week of who gets the top 2 spots? So for ev it will depend on what orange sherando spotsy and chancellor win or not?

 

[EVcyc]

Yep. Chancellor would have been the #1 seed if they would have beaten James River. Looks like they will get a 2nd round rematch with Eastern View.

Actually, I think Louisa will end up third.. I have run best case and worst case for EV Din Chan and Louisa.. If best or worse case (as far as power points go) occurs for all teams, it will end up
Din, EV Lou Chan (Louisa benefits from beating 5 win Charloettsville (if they beat them)

Games that matter:
Sherando vs Millbrook.. This gives EV their only shot to tie Dinwiddie. Also, it helps keep Louisa ahead of Chancellor. Sherando needs to win.
Mponx vs Brook point.. This gives Chancellor a chance to stay ahead of Louisa. Chancellor does not have a chance to move up to second.
Mponx needs to win and Sherando needs to lose for Chancellor to finish third

The one scenario that knocks Dinwiddie out of first is Hanover beating Henrico and Sherando beating Milbrook.

Of course all the teams need to win their final game as well. The rest of the power points are either gimmies or district..

 

[EVcyc]

It is always possible for KG to beat James Monroe as well. That hurts Dinwiddie. I just don't see it happening.

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

Actually, I think Louisa will end up third.. I have run best case and worst case for EV Din Chan and Louisa.. If best or worse case (as far as power points go) occurs for all teams, it will end up
Din, EV Lou Chan (Louisa benefits from beating 5 win Charloettsville (if they beat them)

Games that matter:
Sherando vs Millbrook.. This gives EV their only shot to tie Dinwiddie. Also, it helps keep Louisa ahead of Chancellor. Sherando needs to win.
Mponx vs Brook point.. This gives Chancellor a chance to stay ahead of Louisa. Chancellor does not have a chance to move up to second.
Mponx needs to win and Sherando needs to lose for Chancellor to finish third

The one scenario that knocks Dinwiddie out of first is Hanover beating Henrico and Sherando beating Milbrook.

Of course all the teams need to win their final game as well. The rest of the power points are either gimmies or district..

Are you factoring in Monticello not getting credit for the Cesar Chavez win because the VHSL doesn't recognize charter schools? That hurts Louisa.

 

[EVcyc]

I went off the scores Devils posted.. I didn't go back and verify. I used the 29.77 he posted. X 9 = 267.93 + 41 (projected best case with Sherando win) = 308.93. Even if Mponx beats Brook point, Chancellor will finish with 305.97. Actually as I'm writing this I realized I had them at 307 initially. So even if Sherando loses they should be in Third... The 41 breakdown goes - 32 for the win (22 + 10), and then 9 more for wins by the teams they played (including the point for Pow winning thier last game)... I think it is a lock they finish third.. Unless they screw it up on their own.. Please verify my thinking and Math though...

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Louisa won't lose to Charlottesville. Who does chancellor have left?

 

[EVcyc]

They play Spotsy..
The other thing that is surprising to me is even with a KG loss to JM, They will still most likely stay ahead of Courtland.
I think barring any real crazy upsets, the final standings will be:
Dinwiddie
EV
Louisa
Chancellor
Monacan
Powhatan
KG
Courtland

 

[hamspear]

Louisa won't lose to Charlottesville. Who does chancellor have left?

Snooka why are you confident Louisa will beat Charlottesville ?

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Because it I Charlottesville. Oneman has been real quiet on the board since he claimed my early comment about cville being at best 6-4 would motivate his boys. The black nights has a history of getting punched in the mouth early then quitting. Look I mean no ill will I am just being honest tell me what has changed about them the last 10+ years? They come out smoking and by the end of the season they are 5-5 or 6-4. Mediocre football. I would like them to win but I just don't see it. Louisa needs this game to have a shot at locking 3rd up.

 

[hamspear]

I don't understand how WA can come out a winner against Louisa and then get beat by Charlottesville? Charlottesville must have got something right this week. So unpredictable . Nothing against Charlottesville, Louisa all the way this week. Hoos get your boys ready for this one!

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Prior to the week of the Western Albemarle I thought Louisa would make a long run but Western exposed the Lions they are having a good season but not like the 2006 team where they blow squads out.

 

[hamspear]

They could still make a long run! Playoffs haven't even started yet

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

We gotta get healthy to stand a chance of a legit run. I've already accepted that whatever happens, happens and is beyond our control.

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Hoos I have read your posts and I understand where you are coming from with why you say it's beyond their control and agree with you to a degree. However, it's like Louisa makes no adjustments as the season goes on either. For example, your Lion pass defense is always bad and Louisa can never pass. I have read the CV a few times and Fischer's famous qoute is 3 yards and a pile of dust. I know he is not doing the offense but in my opinion they are predictable. Early in the season I thought they were on to something offensively looking alot like Hanover last season. However, they started going stagnant against honestly bad defensive teams. The last three teams they have played are not the best defensive teams and they are struggling. I know you say injuries and I understand but they still have the same skill why do they have to go more single wing as you said?

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Look Louisa is 8-1 and they are going to most likely go 9-1 so yes they are good not trying to sound like they are awful. They are better but I have been hearing all this chatter about how good the jd has been and we have not done squat in the playoffs in 8 or so years. All I am saying they have to do more to do win a few playoff games than what they have shown the last 3 weeks.

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

I don't understand how WA can come out a winner against Louisa and then get beat by Charlottesville? Charlottesville must have got something right this week. So unpredictable . Nothing against Charlottesville, Louisa all the way this week. Hoos get your boys ready for this one!

Simple, Cville got a couple of players back healthy and didn't turn the ball over. Louisa played badly against WA and WA played about as perfectly as they could.

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

Hoos I have read your posts and I understand where you are coming from with why you say it's beyond their control and agree with you to a degree. However, it's like Louisa makes no adjustments as the season goes on either. For example, your Lion pass defense is always bad and Louisa can never pass. I have read the CV a few times and Fischer's famous qoute is 3 yards and a pile of dust. I know he is not doing the offense but in my opinion they are predictable. Early in the season I thought they were on to something offensively looking alot like Hanover last season. However, they started going stagnant against honestly bad defensive teams. The last three teams they have played are not the best defensive teams and they are struggling. I know you say injuries and I understand but they still have the same skill why do they have to go more single wing as you said?

Plenty of adjustments were made for the Monticello and Orange games. You say you have the videos, look closely and you'll see. Hard to consistently do what we do when the line has to get shuffled weekly now. I have clearly not denied your passing thoughts, I stated as such over the last couple of weeks. And those skill players aren't exactly healthy, I didnt think Bell would play against Orange. And Cherry is most likely out this week barring a miracle. I don't care how good the skill is. No blocking, the skill can't do anything. Look at Hanover's offense for a perfect example of how good they were last year with that physical O line to how they are this year with some of the same skill kids.

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Yeah I agree with no line I am saying hoos that Louisa is always like this not much passing one dimensional on both sides of the ball. That's why I was saying early in the year their passing as you said was improving but they still can't pass. Orange was not as good at passing Friday night after watching film..the qb missed multiple wide open receivers by over throwing or under throwing receivers. Anyways good luck to Louisa they have best shot of winning a playoff game especially in arched up at home vs Powhatan.

 

[anon_vu6vqwsr4nf3b]

Orange QB was under pressure most of the night thankfully. And if we could keep our talent in Louisa, we'd pass better.

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Orange QB was under pressure most of the night thankfully. And if we could keep our talent in Louisa, we'd pass better.

This is true.

 

[one man]

Because it I Charlottesville. Oneman has been real quiet on the board since he claimed my early comment about cville being at best 6-4 would motivate his boys. The black nights has a history of getting punched in the mouth early then quitting. Look I mean no ill will I am just being honest tell me what has changed about them the last 10+ years? They come out smoking and by the end of the season they are 5-5 or 6-4. Mediocre football. I would like them to win but I just don't see it. Louisa needs this game to have a shot at locking 3rd up.

I'm usually reserved during the season for obvious reasons. Your comment wasn't going to motivate the boys, very few if any of them read this board. It was motivation for me as a coach to work harder in preparation and put them in position to be successful. Our kids know our history and they hear from surrounding communities. We haven't been 5-5 or 6-4 since 2002 when we finished 10-1. Until this past friday, 4 wins was the most we'd had in a season since that 2002 season. So to be honest, regardless of what happens Friday, this season is the most successful at this school (record wise) in 14 years. When Fluvanna reaches 5 wins in a season, will you look at that as success or mediocre? Sure in the grand scheme of winning the state title, 5-5 is mediocre but coming from where our program came from and where your's is at, 5 wins is huge. Not trying to jab Fluvanna either, just trying to give you proper perspective.

I'm not knocking your opinion of our program, it's valid from your point of view. Just realize we are building something here, you may not see it or understand it but trust me building a program isn't hey come lift, run this play, go to class. A lot goes into it and with our demographic of kids, we deal with way more than just football, weights and school.

I know we've disappointed you in person a couple times this year but come on back friday, maybe the 3rd time will be the charm.

 

[BleedingNavy]

Classy post Oneman. Building a program takes time. Keep grinding and setting a good example. Things will come around and when they do it will last.

 

[Snookasuperstar]

One man you are right on actually and sorry for my crudeness. I do hope you pull the upset off. Honestly I want our area to do better but I get tired of a lot of talk about the jd when we really don't do much in the playoffs. I do think you all have improved from last few seasons and I have noted that. I am going to try and refrain from talking about other programs from here on out. Just so much has changed since my days playing for coach Browning. He would never allow for some of the things my flucos have done with the program. A lot of schools have lost discipline with their kids who play football and I have noticed a change in your teams culture and I am sorry I have not put more focus on that. There are some teams who focus more on winning and less on teaching young men how to be men. You guys this season have done that from the games I have attended. I am aware some schools are not teaching kids right from wrong and winning is everything. Out.

 

[DinwiddieProud]

I told One Man, not long after meeting him, that he was destined for greatness. He will be a great head coach one day, and his greatness will come from molding boys to become young men. Oh yeah, and he will probably win a few hundred games along the way too.

Good Luck my friend, and good luck to the Blackknights.

 

[appydawg85]

One Man don't feel pregnant. Snooka downs every program in the JD to somehow validate the mediocrity his own program has fallen into for the past several years. I don't care what district you belong winning in the playoffs is not an easy task. JD playoff wins since 2010:

Monticello 7
Western 7
Powhatan 2
Louisa 1
Charlottesville 0
Orange 0
Albemarle 0
Fluvanna 0

Previous Decade 2000-2009

Powhatan 14
Monticello 7
Louisa 3
Western 0
Orange 0
Albemarle 0
Charlottesville 0
Fluvanna 0

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Yeah yeah yeah...I just take into account how many of us make the playoffs and go 1 and out. Anyways good luck to all jd schools. Our district is a baseball district you should know that appydawg.

 

[ChancellorFan]

I went off the scores Devils posted.. I didn't go back and verify. I used the 29.77 he posted. X 9 = 267.93 + 41 (projected best case with Sherando win) = 308.93. Even if Mponx beats Brook point, Chancellor will finish with 305.97. Actually as I'm writing this I realized I had them at 307 initially. So even if Sherando loses they should be in Third... The 41 breakdown goes - 32 for the win (22 + 10), and then 9 more for wins by the teams they played (including the point for Pow winning thier last game)... I think it is a lock they finish third.. Unless they screw it up on their own.. Please verify my thinking and Math though...

I know this is late as the decisions will be made in a few hours and the math will follow. But I have run Chancellors numbers multiple times. You originally thought 307 and that's what I come up with using a likely case. You then stepped back and said 305.97. I have to do some different math to come up with that number. It seems we are 2 points off. A question I have is did you account for Spotsy being a 3A team? That gives Chancellor 2 bonus points. Or, if EV and James River both win then Chancellor gets 1 bonus point each for them. Either way would account for the 2 points.

Its really not important, just curious if I can figure out where we are 2 points off.

I did make one assumption; which is we are both looking at the same outcome of tonights games. Chancellors best case is 309 unless Excel is lying to me.

 

[blackknight_pride]

Yeah yeah yeah...I just take into account how many of us make the playoffs and go 1 and out. Anyways good luck to all jd schools. Our district is a baseball district you should know that appydawg.

Nah...we're a basketball district really. Albemarle, Charlottesville, Western Albemarle and Fluvanna (even though the flucos are bad now) are top notch programs. Louisa was really good last year. Powhatan, Orange and Monticello maybe not, but overall, basketball is our districts thing.

 

[EVcyc]

Chancellor has 273 points right now. They will beat spotsy and get 24 (22 + 2). So 297 before the other points get added. Riverbend is off so no points there. I will give them 2 for Mponx win (although that one could go other way). 1 point for EV, 2 for Liberty, I don't have James River beating Bird, so I did not give them the point there. 2 more for Courtland and 2 more for JM.. so 9 more.. so 306.. (I had them at 305.97).
Louisa has 268 points right now, they will get 32 with a win (22 + 10).. So 300. The other points... Courtland 2, Alberma 2, Powhatan 2 and Orange 2, So 8 more points.. 308. If Sherando wins that's another 2. Even if James beats bird it only gives them another point.

This seems like a done deal to me. I don't see any scenario where they have 309?

 

[EVcyc]

The twp spotsy bonus point are counted in the 22.. 3A win is 20 + the two points is 22.

 

[Snookasuperstar]

Nah...we're a basketball district really. Albemarle, Charlottesville, Western Albemarle and Fluvanna (even though the flucos are bad now) are top notch programs. Louisa was really good last year. Powhatan, Orange and Monticello maybe not, but overall, basketball is our districts thing.

I disagree on that. Baseball teams in the JD have done the following Louisa made a run 3 years ago, Monticello 2 years ago, Western made one late last season, Powhatan has won the state title I think 3 times in the last ten years not including some of their region runs. The blacknight baseball team is like us in football.

 

[ChancellorFan]

Chancellor has 273 points right now. They will beat spotsy and get 24 (22 + 2). So 297 before the other points get added. Riverbend is off so no points there. I will give them 2 for Mponx win (although that one could go other way). 1 point for EV, 2 for Liberty, I don't have James River beating Bird, so I did not give them the point there. 2 more for Courtland and 2 more for JM.. so 9 more.. so 306.. (I had them at 305.97).
Louisa has 268 points right now, they will get 32 with a win (22 + 10).. So 300. The other points... Courtland 2, Alberma 2, Powhatan 2 and Orange 2, So 8 more points.. 308. If Sherando wins that's another 2. Even if James beats bird it only gives them another point.

This seems like a done deal to me. I don't see any scenario where they have 309?

OK .... the 309 was my glasses fogging on me. It says 307 and I read 309. We are in agreement:

Now = 273
Beat Spotsy = 20+2+2= 24 so up to 297
Mass = 2
EV = 1
Lib = 2
JR = 1
Courtland = 2
JM = 2

So 297 + 10 = 307 BEST CASE

We're on it. Thanks. Here I am worrying about math that will be done for me tomorrow! ha!

 

[OCBoy]

Nah...we're a basketball district really. Albemarle, Charlottesville, Western Albemarle and Fluvanna (even though the flucos are bad now) are top notch programs. Louisa was really good last year. Powhatan, Orange and Monticello maybe not, but overall, basketball is our districts thing.

Louisa was not good in basketball last year. Might have done better than usual but they were average to me and didn't do anything come playoff time