Assumptions and narratives

[southbottomU]

Reading this board over the summer has been quite interesting. I realize that very little has gone on with a few coaching changes being the exception, but what I find interesting is how the narrative has changed and some of the assumptions that have been made.
Five years ago Salem had not won a State Championship in a while and realignment had allowed some powerful eastern 5a teams to drop to 4a. The narrative by many, in fact most, was that those teams would dominate 4a for the forseeable future. A reasonable assumption. It was thought that those teams and others specifically in Tidewater just had too many athletes. Again a reasonable assumption.
Five years later and Salem has been to Four State Finals winning the last three. Now the narrative is that Salem will win the west every year for the forseeable future and then will figure out a way to win the final.
Just as the narrative and assumptions described above proved to be incorrect, the new narrative and assumptions will likely be found wanting.
Salem has had a nice run of athletes. Maybe not a lot of D1 players, but a whole lot of real good high school players. Those type of players have always been the backbone of the Salem program. But to assume that Salem will be in the finals every year is ridiculous. I personally think that Salem is due to have a down year (7-3) and will not reach the level of the last five years until 2020/21. But my assumption could also be wrong. After all, this is high school football and we are talking about 15, 16, 17, and 18 year old kids and any assumtion or created narrative is risky to say the least.

 

[FootballArmy]

Very well stated. I totally agree with the Salem prediction.

 

[close2salem]

Ummmm...WRONG! 7-3??? Based on what? Losing seniors to graduation? People only live up to your highest expectations! I have the mindset Salem is going to win states every year! Reload! Until I am proven otherwise, I will always have faith the Spartans will have a dominant winning season.

 

[1MoreHokie]

I would normally call a cellar year for Salem at 8-2 due to their usual schedule but with Dinwiddie still on this year I could see 7-3. I mean, I'm not saying they couldn't go 0-10, just if you asked me for a realistic "worst case" season I'd say 7-3. PC lost their QB, Blacksburg has some talent but lost a ton (and a lot of line oh and a HC), Amherst is a toss-up especially with their coaching situation, etc. Salem has talent around but a lot of it is considerably young and always hard to get those to respond well for a little, although yes, I'm well aware of the last senior class doing it as sophomores but they're clearly the exception to the rule.

They'll have a kid or two to run the ball, if they can spread the ball around through the air then they should be pretty good but who knows how far that'll take them in the POs.

 

[DanvilleSportsHead]

I’m just curious. What 3 teams do you see beating Salem during the regular season? Dinwiddie is going to be a hard game, especially in Dinwiddie, but what other 2 teams do you guys see Salem struggling with? I believe Northside will be very good..If they still had Blake at QB I’d say maybe but do you really think they made that type of jump? PH should be as dominant as Salem is but they never play to their potential and Blacksburg will be very good but do you trust a team that lost a once in a lifetime kind of player like Beck to be on the same level? I’m guessing 9-1, 10-0. Imo, Dinwiddie and Amherst will be the biggest question marks. I believe Frank Ross is just that good. He single handedly beat GW last September, he's that good. I find it disrespectful that the kid has no offers yet.

 

[mbonape1]

I’m just curious. What 3 teams do you see beating Salem during the regular season? Dinwiddie is going to be a hard game, especially in Dinwiddie, but what other 2 teams do you guys see Salem struggling with? I believe Northside will be very good..If they still had Blake at QB I’d say maybe but do you really think they made that type of jump? PH should be as dominant as Salem is but they never play to their potential and Blacksburg will be very good but do you trust a team that lost a once in a lifetime kind of player like Beck to be on the same level? I’m guessing 9-1, 10-0. Imo, Dinwiddie and Amherst will be the biggest question marks. I believe Frank Ross is just that good. He single handedly beat GW last September, he's that good. I find it disrespectful that the kid has no offers yet.

I kind of agree with all on this thread but the regular season just doesn’t mean that much unless Salem just takes a bath which is virtually impossible. Anything but a state championship for Salem is now falling short. That is a good problem to have and one that I would trade for.

 

[1MoreHokie]

I’m just curious. What 3 teams do you see beating Salem during the regular season? Dinwiddie is going to be a hard game, especially in Dinwiddie, but what other 2 teams do you guys see Salem struggling with? I believe Northside will be very good..If they still had Blake at QB I’d say maybe but do you really think they made that type of jump? PH should be as dominant as Salem is but they never play to their potential and Blacksburg will be very good but do you trust a team that lost a once in a lifetime kind of player like Beck to be on the same level? I’m guessing 9-1, 10-0. Imo, Dinwiddie and Amherst will be the biggest question marks. I believe Frank Ross is just that good. He single handedly beat GW last September, he's that good. I find it disrespectful that the kid has no offers yet.

They've got Amherst, Dinwiddie, and Blacksburg all in the first month while trying to replace a lot of skill position talent. No idea what PH returns but that game was entirely too close for my liking. Not particularly concerned about NS, every big game they had last year their O essentially vanished.

 

[courtlandcougars1987]

Salem has a great long tenured coaching staff and kids wanting to play for a wining program. They are on one awesome run right now and should have lost the BB last year in playoffs. It comes and goes, everyone experiences ups and downs, even Salem. They will hit a bump in the road sooner or later, we all do. LT had thier 3 year run and the two subpar seasons, but now seen to be rebuilding. Dinwiddie will be next? Great 4-5 year run with amazing talent and then bam, gota rebuild. Louisa, I belice is going to face some instability, they are going to be competitive this season because of Smith, but tgey will fall back for a year or two. Courtland was mediocre for the past three years aftet their 10 year dominate run within our region and have rebuilt/loaded however you want to say it. We all go through it, some longer than others . Graduation hurts depending on how it sets up.

 

[Gunz41]

Sure everyone has down years, but the top programs down years are still successful years for the other programs.

There is a difference in a Salem, Riverheads, etc "down year" and other programs.

 

[courtlandcougars1987]

Totaly agree with you.