This is a great thread. I love the Battlefield and the competitiveness between schools that are old rivals as well as schools that are much newer. This particular response led me to post this...here are the demographics of the Fredericksburg area high schools (+Culpeper County) just in case anyone was interested. Numbers are from the past school year. They are in order of size of school and the numbers are the % of the school that is that race. Fredericksburg is a lot more diverse than I realized. Anyways, just thought you may be interested. Hopefully this formats well in here, you should be able to scroll to the side to see all the numbers.
FREDERICKSBURG | Location | City/County Population | Minus University | Total: | School Enrollment | Ratio | White | Black | Hispanic | Biracial | Asian | Total% | |
Riverbend | Spotsylvania County | 138493 | | 138493 | 1998 | | 57.608 | 14.26 | 17.6176 | 7.5576 | 2.503 | 99.55 | 6 |
Massaponax | Spotsylvania County | 138493 | | 138493 | 1743 | | 38.554 | 27.94 | 22.4326 | 7.7453 | 3.041 | 99.713 | 5 |
Eastern View | Culpeper County | 52021 | | 52,021 | 1558 | | 45.635 | 15.15 | 29.3325 | 7.2529 | 2.375 | 99.743 | 4 |
Courtland | Spotsylvania County | 138493 | | 138493 | 1557 | | 40.912 | 24.34 | 22.3507 | 7.3218 | 4.753 | 99.679 | 4 |
King George | King George County | 26597 | | 26597 | 1489 | 5.5984 | 61.383 | 18.6 | 10.2082 | 7.9248 | 1.007 | 99.127 | 4 |
Chancellor | Spotsylvania County | 138493 | | 138493 | 1400 | | 33.286 | 21.64 | 35.5714 | 6.0714 | 2.857 | 99.429 | 4 |
Spotsylvania | Spotsylvania County | 138493 | | 138493 | 1389 | | 63.643 | 11.74 | 14.6148 | 8.1353 | 1.656 | 99.784 | 4 |
Caroline | Caroline County | 30681 | | 30681 | 1251 | 4.0774 | 47.962 | 27.98 | 13.8289 | 8.713 | 0.799 | 99.281 | 4 |
Culpeper County | Culpeper County | 52021 | | 52021 | 1224 | | 50.082 | 10.38 | 31.2908 | 6.2908 | 1.471 | 99.51 | 3 |
James Monroe | Fredericksburg City | 29092 | 3956 | 25136 | 1002 | 3.9863 | 28.244 | 35.73 | 23.0539 | 6.3872 | 6.088 | 99.501 | 3 |
Spotsylvania already needs another high school extremely soon. The price of construction is only going to go up the longer the county waits. There was a recent article in Inside NoVa which talks about the new Lake Ridge/Minnieville high school set to be built in Prince William County and how the price of that has ballooned to over $200 million from $100 million-plus. The governing body that has overseen over a 300% growth in four decades are too blind to see this.
For this year's budget, the county administrator revealed that there were still at least 3,000 or 4,000 dwellings still be built in Spotsylvania based on prior agreements with former and current incarnations of the Board of Supervisors. I'm anti-growth and this sickens me. Because of this growth which hasn't taken place yet combined with the growth the county has already experienced and the growth still to come, the trickle down effect will start to rear its head in the next decade. And it will come quick; eventually getting to the point of rapid school builds that we see in both Prince William and Loudoun Counties.
And there's an article in this morning's local paper talking about how King George wants to be the hub of data centers. Spotsylvania has also thrown their name in the hat to try to allure some of them as well. This will lure more people to eventually abandon the long trips and traffic to DC and Northern Virginia for work and remain locally therefore increasing the population and causing the need for more schools.
I think what will happen is that the additional Spotsylvania schools will be built to accommodate "AAA" sizes (Class 5 and 6) going forward. This will actually stretch the Commonwealth since Stafford County is going to open its sixth high school circa 2026. That would get the Commonwealth to eight schools. Another Spotsylvania school which will probably come on board in the early 2030s will give the Commonwealth nine. That gives the Commonwealth a little time before a Commonwealth/Cardinal split like we saw some decades back. I could eventually see an all-Stafford County AAA District when they hit seven or eight AAA high schools in that county and the Spotsylvania AAA schools (maybe when there are three or four of those) joining up with the Hanover AAA schools for a district maybe later on in our lifetimes.
Orange County and Louisa County are not getting any smaller so I think they both will eventually add a high school apiece in a decade or two. The Jefferson won't be able to accommodate all four (they are currently at eight). The Battlefield would have eight (maybe nine with a new high school in King George in a decade or two) so they can't take all four. Maybe we could see a future district that houses Eastern View, Culpeper County, Louisa County, Orange County, Louisa County #2, Orange County #2. I have heard that Louisa County's administration are infatuated with being connected with the Charlottesville-area schools so I could see them doing that.
As for James Monroe, attendance is slowly creeping up. The City of Fredericksburg is actually building a new, larger middle school to replace Walker-Grant. There isn't much land in the City to build so for Battlefield traditionalists, I could see James Monroe being capped as a Class 4 school with no need to build a second high school. I think the "new" James Monroe building has already had one expansion. They have a little bit of room on their campus to expand just a little bit more; but not much. Think George Mason in Falls Church for a comparison.
Caroline will see some overflow growth due to the fact that the cost of living in Spotsylvania (which the county heralds as "cheaper than other places") is starting to creep up. I'm not sure if the folks there are anticipating the growth that they may also receive as spillover in the next decade or two.
Although the style of play isn't all that great in the Battlefield (maybe one of the most underachieving districts in the state in the last two decades), having continuity and some tradition of having many of the same teams has been a blessing for those of us who grew up watching and playing in the district.
I love to prognosticate this stuff as sports have been my entire life. That's why I have posted twice my district setup if the VHSL went to districts based on schools sizes and geography. I enjoy following this stuff so much.
But nonetheless, this is the lay of the land in the Fredericksburg area for the next decade or two.