Calpreps Projections for All 2A first round playoff games

[Fairlawncat]

Totally for fun only. Calpreps has a game simulator where they project matchups based on transitive theory. Transitive theory or transitive property doesn't seem to work out all that well when you have 3 teams, A, B, C. For example, trying to gauge Tazewell and Stuarts Draft (if the two played) based on how each did against Riverheads. The previous example only has 3 pieces of data. But, when you take all the teams that all 3 of them played, then all of the teams those teams played and so on, and you get a gigantic data set with hundreds of teams, it's alarmingly accurate when plugged into their Silicon Valley computer-statistical formula. Calpreps can certainly be wrong as each team is it own individual and can control its circumstances, but it's incredible how accurate Calpreps is, and how accurate it has been over the years. Anyway, purely for fun, but here are the Calpreps projections for all 8 games of the 2A Virginia State Playoffs.

Region A.
Nottoway 28, Amelia 10
King William 41, Poquoson 26

Region B.
Stuarts Draft 31, Buffalo Gap 3
Strasburg 21, Page County 17

Region C.
Appomatox 35, Radford 20
Dan River 24, Glenvar 26 (this is the only game projected of all 8 games where the lower seed is projected to beat the higher seed 3 seed over the 2 seed)

Region D.
Graham 35, Union 12,
Tazewell 20, Central 19

These projections chance each week as scores are added to the database, so right now, for example in Region D, if you take Graham vs Tazewell, they have it as Graham 26, Tazewell 19, but that can change (if the two schools win and meet each other again which is up in the air) but that Graham vs Tazewell projection right now will change after next week not just based on what Graham and Tazewell does, but based on what tons of other teams do.

Final Fun- No team in 2A Virginia right now is projected to beat Appomattox (that could change). Guess who Calpreps has projected right now, today, if the two teams were to play? Yep, it's Riverheads by a score of 33 to 31 in favor of Riverheads over Appomattox. Does that mean Rivereheads is better than Appo? Of course not. No way to know or tell other than simple opinions, but the Calpreps thing can be fun to toy with.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Fun site to play on and they have a decent track record for predictions.

 

[Fairlawncat]

Yep, and any statistical formula only gets strong by more data. Calpreps becomes much more accurate week by week because there are tons more data. For example, week 1 is nowhere close to what week 8 is, because there are tons of scores put in the database. I would bet that this year in Virginia, it's far less accurate that the past because of only 6 games and 4 playoff games. For teams playing in the state title, they will have played a total of 9 games this year going into that game compared to a total of 14 games on a normal year going into that game, so much less data means much less accuracy.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Agreed

 

[oldfool2]

Totally for fun only. Calpreps has a game simulator where they project matchups based on transitive theory. Transitive theory or transitive property doesn't seem to work out all that well when you have 3 teams, A, B, C. For example, trying to gauge Tazewell and Stuarts Draft (if the two played) based on how each did against Riverheads. The previous example only has 3 pieces of data. But, when you take all the teams that all 3 of them played, then all of the teams those teams played and so on, and you get a gigantic data set with hundreds of teams, it's alarmingly accurate when plugged into their Silicon Valley computer-statistical formula. Calpreps can certainly be wrong as each team is it own individual and can control its circumstances, but it's incredible how accurate Calpreps is, and how accurate it has been over the years. Anyway, purely for fun, but here are the Calpreps projections for all 8 games of the 2A Virginia State Playoffs.

Region A.
Nottoway 28, Amelia 10
King William 41, Poquoson 26

Region B.
Stuarts Draft 31, Buffalo Gap 3
Strasburg 21, Page County 17

Region C.
Appomatox 35, Radford 20
Dan River 24, Glenvar 26 (this is the only game projected of all 8 games where the lower seed is projected to beat the higher seed 3 seed over the 2 seed)

Region D.
Graham 35, Union 12,
Tazewell 20, Central 19

These projections chance each week as scores are added to the database, so right now, for example in Region D, if you take Graham vs Tazewell, they have it as Graham 26, Tazewell 19, but that can change (if the two schools win and meet each other again which is up in the air) but that Graham vs Tazewell projection right now will change after next week not just based on what Graham and Tazewell does, but based on what tons of other teams do.

Final Fun- No team in 2A Virginia right now is projected to beat Appomattox (that could change). Guess who Calpreps has projected right now, today, if the two teams were to play? Yep, it's Riverheads by a score of 33 to 31 in favor of Riverheads over Appomattox. Does that mean Rivereheads is better than Appo? Of course not. No way to know or tell other than simple opinions, but the Calpreps thing can be fun to toy with.

I thankyou for doing this and yes it's just for fun. I do have a question tho. Did Calpreps take into consideration we are in the midst of a covid pandemic? lol just having fun with you.

 

[Fairlawncat]

I thankyou for doing this and yes it's just for fun. I do have a question tho. Did Calpreps take into consideration we are in the midst of a covid pandemic? lol just having fun with you.

No idea my friend. No idea. How can an old hillbilly like myself have any idea or clue what they are thinking in California. Now that I think about it, I don't think I've ever known what they are thinking in California!

 

[Fairlawncat]

Oldfool2, that's a good point you brought up. That's the thing with statistics and computers versus humans and our variables that are just not completely measurable. For example, this bunch in Cali is taking not hundreds, but thousands of scores and putting them into a data base. What they can't account for is human variables. For example, Covid, practices, injuries. For example, a team like Nottoway with a major Div 1 prospect or Graham with 2 four star players (I think Bradshaw is a 4, maybe a 3,) but anyway, what if these guys get hurt. Or what if they are partially hurt and turn an ankle, or the kid on the OL for Draft who is Major D1 gets an injury. May God bless all of these kids and I pray for their safety, but these are the things that can change games. The weather. Also, since you are an Appo guy, what impact does it have with Coach Smith not on the sidelines in the playoffs. Are they less effective? Are they more effective and incredibly motivated? Just hard to measure those things, so when looking at Calpreps, I always have that in mind. Purely for fun, accurate for the most part over the long run, but it has its moments of being incredibly wrong as well. This is the perfect year for it to be less accurate.

 

[Gunz41]

Oldfool2, that's a good point you brought up. That's the thing with statistics and computers versus humans and our variables that are just not completely measurable. For example, this bunch in Cali is taking not hundreds, but thousands of scores and putting them into a data base. What they can't account for is human variables. For example, Covid, practices, injuries. For example, a team like Nottoway with a major Div 1 prospect or Graham with 2 four star players (I think Bradshaw is a 4, maybe a 3,) but anyway, what if these guys get hurt. Or what if they are partially hurt and turn an ankle, or the kid on the OL for Draft who is Major D1 gets an injury. May God bless all of these kids and I pray for their safety, but these are the things that can change games. The weather. Also, since you are an Appo guy, what impact does it have with Coach Smith not on the sidelines in the playoffs. Are they less effective? Are they more effective and incredibly motivated? Just hard to measure those things, so when looking at Calpreps, I always have that in mind. Purely for fun, accurate for the most part over the long run, but it has its moments of being incredibly wrong as well. This is the perfect year for it to be less accurate.

The SD kid is not on the team this season. After last season he went to play at IMG Academy

 

[oldfool2]

Oldfool2, that's a good point you brought up. That's the thing with statistics and computers versus humans and our variables that are just not completely measurable. For example, this bunch in Cali is taking not hundreds, but thousands of scores and putting them into a data base. What they can't account for is human variables. For example, Covid, practices, injuries. For example, a team like Nottoway with a major Div 1 prospect or Graham with 2 four star players (I think Bradshaw is a 4, maybe a 3,) but anyway, what if these guys get hurt. Or what if they are partially hurt and turn an ankle, or the kid on the OL for Draft who is Major D1 gets an injury. May God bless all of these kids and I pray for their safety, but these are the things that can change games. The weather. Also, since you are an Appo guy, what impact does it have with Coach Smith not on the sidelines in the playoffs. Are they less effective? Are they more effective and incredibly motivated? Just hard to measure those things, so when looking at Calpreps, I always have that in mind. Purely for fun, accurate for the most part over the long run, but it has its moments of being incredibly wrong as well. This is the perfect year for it to be less accurate.

Your exactly right. Without Coach Smith on the sidelines i would say the kids are not as focused. Coach is doing all he can from home with a direct line to game and a phone. The kids should be highly motivated to play for Coach but i honestly think some are playing too hard to impress coach smith. You have got to play with your instincts and not your brain, let the brain say if the instinct is right or wrong or to adjust. Coaches will really be working on it this week and corral them into one unit one team under the PO1 mantra.

 

[Bo Bob]

Oldfool2, that's a good point you brought up. That's the thing with statistics and computers versus humans and our variables that are just not completely measurable. For example, this bunch in Cali is taking not hundreds, but thousands of scores and putting them into a data base. What they can't account for is human variables. For example, Covid, practices, injuries. For example, a team like Nottoway with a major Div 1 prospect or Graham with 2 four star players (I think Bradshaw is a 4, maybe a 3,) but anyway, what if these guys get hurt. Or what if they are partially hurt and turn an ankle, or the kid on the OL for Draft who is Major D1 gets an injury. May God bless all of these kids and I pray for their safety, but these are the things that can change games. The weather. Also, since you are an Appo guy, what impact does it have with Coach Smith not on the sidelines in the playoffs. Are they less effective? Are they more effective and incredibly motivated? Just hard to measure those things, so when looking at Calpreps, I always have that in mind. Purely for fun, accurate for the most part over the long run, but it has its moments of being incredibly wrong as well. This is the perfect year for it to be less accurate.

The other coaches are doing a fabulous job BUT .... you don’t just replace Coach Smith!!! He brings WAY MORE to the practice field that just X’s and O’s!!!
Our boys need to dial in and get focused on Radford!

 

[Fairlawncat]

I wish Coach Smith were on that field. I wish all the best in healing and if every community had a football coach like Coach Smith, in my opinion, the country would be in a much better place. This country needs about 10,000 more just like him. Best of luck to your kids in health and hopefully it's an injury and Covid free game, but as far as luck goes, I just can't wish you any for your next game, lol. Not that you guys need it anyway. If we can get some key stops on 3rd downs in the ist half, and a key turnover, and assuming we are flawless, we have a chance, but it's just that, a chance. Safe travels

 

[Bo Bob]

I wish Coach Smith were on that field. I wish all the best in healing and if every community had a football coach like Coach Smith, in my opinion, the country would be in a much better place. This country needs about 10,000 more just like him. Best of luck to your kids in health and hopefully it's an injury and Covid free game, but as far as luck goes, I just can't wish you any for your next game, lol. Not that you guys need it anyway. If we can get some key stops on 3rd downs in the ist half, and a key turnover, and assuming we are flawless, we have a chance, but it's just that, a chance. Safe travels

I’ve said it many times before. I feel very blessed to have my sons play / played under him.

 

[BigWinners]

Tazwell/Central would be an upset by seeding, so the site actually has two 3-seeds over 2-seeds. Central is the 2 and hosts.

 

[Gunz41]

Tazwell/Central would be an upset by seeding, so the site actually has two 3-seeds over 2-seeds. Central is the 2 and hosts.

Well and super technically (sadly by the way), there has been an upset

 

[BigWinners]

Well and super technically (sadly by the way), there has been an upset

I'm lost.

 

[RedPrideNation_RollPride]

Amelia as a #3 over King William a #2 due to KW in Covid quarantine is my guess

 

[Gunz41]

I'm lost.

Like @RedPrideNation_RollPride said. Technically it's an upset. And I certainly don't believe it would have happened if not. But it just goes to show that in this crazy season that the best team in the state can lose without even playing the game. And the projections can't account for that obviously.

After this terrible situation for KW, if Stuarts Draft can't win it next year I am going to pull for them

 

[schoolboard]

I am pulling for Page, but I think Strasburg wins by more than 4.

 

[BigWinners]

Like @RedPrideNation_RollPride said. Technically it's an upset. And I certainly don't believe it would have happened if not. But it just goes to show that in this crazy season that the best team in the state can lose without even playing the game. And the projections can't account for that obviously.

After this terrible situation for KW, if Stuarts Draft can't win it next year I am going to pull for them

Gotcha. That sucks so hard for the kids. Ridgeview in 2D had their likely playoff berth taken away as well, they could have made legit noise. Just a tough season out there for so many kids.

 

[Gunz41]

Gotcha. That sucks so hard for the kids. Ridgeview in 2D had their likely playoff berth taken away as well, they could have made legit noise. Just a tough season out there for so many kids.

Yea, I hate it. Fingers crossed it doesn't happen to anyone else, whether that is my team, the team my team would play, a team I don't care for, or a team I don't know.

 

[Intrinsicrewards]

Totally for fun only. Calpreps has a game simulator where they project matchups based on transitive theory. Transitive theory or transitive property doesn't seem to work out all that well when you have 3 teams, A, B, C. For example, trying to gauge Tazewell and Stuarts Draft (if the two played) based on how each did against Riverheads. The previous example only has 3 pieces of data. But, when you take all the teams that all 3 of them played, then all of the teams those teams played and so on, and you get a gigantic data set with hundreds of teams, it's alarmingly accurate when plugged into their Silicon Valley computer-statistical formula. Calpreps can certainly be wrong as each team is it own individual and can control its circumstances, but it's incredible how accurate Calpreps is, and how accurate it has been over the years. Anyway, purely for fun, but here are the Calpreps projections for all 8 games of the 2A Virginia State Playoffs.

Region A.
Nottoway 28, Amelia 10
King William 41, Poquoson 26

Region B.
Stuarts Draft 31, Buffalo Gap 3
Strasburg 21, Page County 17

Region C.
Appomatox 35, Radford 20
Dan River 24, Glenvar 26 (this is the only game projected of all 8 games where the lower seed is projected to beat the higher seed 3 seed over the 2 seed)

Region D.
Graham 35, Union 12,
Tazewell 20, Central 19

These projections chance each week as scores are added to the database, so right now, for example in Region D, if you take Graham vs Tazewell, they have it as Graham 26, Tazewell 19, but that can change (if the two schools win and meet each other again which is up in the air) but that Graham vs Tazewell projection right now will change after next week not just based on what Graham and Tazewell does, but based on what tons of other teams do.

Final Fun- No team in 2A Virginia right now is projected to beat Appomattox (that could change). Guess who Calpreps has projected right now, today, if the two teams were to play? Yep, it's Riverheads by a score of 33 to 31 in favor of Riverheads over Appomattox. Does that mean Rivereheads is better than Appo? Of course not. No way to know or tell other than simple opinions, but the Calpreps thing can be fun to toy with.

Wow, Calpreps nailed the Glenvar/DR game and was in the ballpark on the Appo/Radford. Region D, not so much. Don't know about the others.

 

[Fairlawncat]

In Region D, they missed both games and missed them by a lot. Had Tazewell by a point over Central and had Graham beating Union 35-12. They were all over the Glenvar/Dan River and Appomattox games. In Region A, they had Poquoson losing by 1 Point to Nottoway. Poquoson won by 5. In Region B, they had Draft by 25 points. Draft won by 28. They had Strasburg by 4 points and Strasburg won by 17.

 

[schoolboard]

I did say more than 4 for Strasburg over Page. I actually have even more respect for Strasburg after seeing Independence in person.