Here we are in February with Superbowl in our rear view mirrors... NFL is now over, college has been over and we are now looking towards the 2017 season rather than looking back at the 2016 season. We don't have a lot to talk about at this point in time other than recruiting so I started thinking to myself, is there anything that can give us a look into the future? I'm one of those guys that likes to look for trends in sports... I'm also a stat guy, it's just my thing. So I did some studying of how the champions fared the year before in an effort to determine who our 2017 champion will be... Here is what we learned.
6 previous champions did not qualify for the playoffs a year before winning it all. This would apply to Armstrong, Booker T. Washington, Broadway, Cave Spring, Christiansburg, Colonial Heights, Fluvanna, Fort Defiance, John Marshall, Liberty-Bedford, Manassas Park, Monticello, New Kent, Patrick, Rockbridge, Skyline, Spotsylvania, Warren, York
6 previous champions reached no further than the state semifinals the year before winning it all. This would apply to Hopewell and Phoebus.
5 previous champions repeated but given that Blacksburg is moving up to Class 4 we know that won't be happening.
5 previous champions made it no further than the second round before winning it all. This would apply to Brookville, IC Norcom, James Monroe, Magna Vista, Northside, Petersburg, Spotswood and Tabb.
4 previous champions lost the championship a year before winning it all which would of course apply to Staunton River.
3 previous champions made it no further than the first round before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Alleghany, Culpeper, George Wythe, Hidden Valley, Lord Botetourt, Park View-South Hill, Southampton, Thomas Jefferson, Tunstall, Turner Ashby, Waynesboro, Western Albemarle and William Monroe.
1 previous champion made it no further than the third round before winning it all which would apply to Brentsville District, Heritage-Lynchburg, Lakeland and Rustburg.
There have been eight champions in 3A that won more than one championship but only four are still Class 3 schools; Brookville, James Monroe, Northside and Rustburg. Of those four, only Brookville and James Monroe have won three or more.
Of the 18 schools that have won Class 3 titles 9 remain. That means half the champions no longer play in Class 3.
Of the 17 titles in the 2000's there have been four different winners.
5 of the last 6 champions reached no less than the third round of the playoffs a year before winning it all. This would apply to Brentsville District, Heritage-Lynchburg, Hopewell, Lakeland, Phoebus, Rustburg, Staunton River
7 of the last 8 champions reached no less than the second round of the playoffs a year before winning it all. This would apply to Blacksburg, Brentsville District, Brookville, Heritage-Lynchburg, Hopewell, IC Norcom, James Monroe, Lakeland, Magna Vista, Northside, Petersburg, Phoebus, Rustburg, Spotswood, Staunton River, Tabb
5 of the last 6 champions reached no less than the state semifinals before winning it all. That would apply to Hopewell, Phoebus and Staunton River.
15 of the last 19 previous champions had 6 or more wins the year before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Brentsville District, Brookville, Heritage-Lynchburg, Hopewell, James Monroe, Lord Botetourt, Magna Vista, Park View-South Hill, Phoebus, Poquoson, Rustburg, Southampton, Spotswood, Staunton River, Tabb, Turner Ashby, William Monroe
4 of the last 6 previous champions had 9 or more wins the year before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Park View-South Hill, Staunton River
4 of the last 5 previous champions had a rating of 26.0 or higher a year before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Brookville, Hopewell, Magna Vista, Park View-South Hill, Phoebus and Rustburg.
So with all that said, it would seem that the Class 3 Champion of 2017 will be one of the following; Abingdon, Hopewell, Park View-South Hill, Phoebus, Rustburg or Staunton River.
6 previous champions did not qualify for the playoffs a year before winning it all. This would apply to Armstrong, Booker T. Washington, Broadway, Cave Spring, Christiansburg, Colonial Heights, Fluvanna, Fort Defiance, John Marshall, Liberty-Bedford, Manassas Park, Monticello, New Kent, Patrick, Rockbridge, Skyline, Spotsylvania, Warren, York
6 previous champions reached no further than the state semifinals the year before winning it all. This would apply to Hopewell and Phoebus.
5 previous champions repeated but given that Blacksburg is moving up to Class 4 we know that won't be happening.
5 previous champions made it no further than the second round before winning it all. This would apply to Brookville, IC Norcom, James Monroe, Magna Vista, Northside, Petersburg, Spotswood and Tabb.
4 previous champions lost the championship a year before winning it all which would of course apply to Staunton River.
3 previous champions made it no further than the first round before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Alleghany, Culpeper, George Wythe, Hidden Valley, Lord Botetourt, Park View-South Hill, Southampton, Thomas Jefferson, Tunstall, Turner Ashby, Waynesboro, Western Albemarle and William Monroe.
1 previous champion made it no further than the third round before winning it all which would apply to Brentsville District, Heritage-Lynchburg, Lakeland and Rustburg.
There have been eight champions in 3A that won more than one championship but only four are still Class 3 schools; Brookville, James Monroe, Northside and Rustburg. Of those four, only Brookville and James Monroe have won three or more.
Of the 18 schools that have won Class 3 titles 9 remain. That means half the champions no longer play in Class 3.
Of the 17 titles in the 2000's there have been four different winners.
5 of the last 6 champions reached no less than the third round of the playoffs a year before winning it all. This would apply to Brentsville District, Heritage-Lynchburg, Hopewell, Lakeland, Phoebus, Rustburg, Staunton River
7 of the last 8 champions reached no less than the second round of the playoffs a year before winning it all. This would apply to Blacksburg, Brentsville District, Brookville, Heritage-Lynchburg, Hopewell, IC Norcom, James Monroe, Lakeland, Magna Vista, Northside, Petersburg, Phoebus, Rustburg, Spotswood, Staunton River, Tabb
5 of the last 6 champions reached no less than the state semifinals before winning it all. That would apply to Hopewell, Phoebus and Staunton River.
15 of the last 19 previous champions had 6 or more wins the year before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Brentsville District, Brookville, Heritage-Lynchburg, Hopewell, James Monroe, Lord Botetourt, Magna Vista, Park View-South Hill, Phoebus, Poquoson, Rustburg, Southampton, Spotswood, Staunton River, Tabb, Turner Ashby, William Monroe
4 of the last 6 previous champions had 9 or more wins the year before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Park View-South Hill, Staunton River
4 of the last 5 previous champions had a rating of 26.0 or higher a year before winning it all. This would apply to Abingdon, Brookville, Hopewell, Magna Vista, Park View-South Hill, Phoebus and Rustburg.
So with all that said, it would seem that the Class 3 Champion of 2017 will be one of the following; Abingdon, Hopewell, Park View-South Hill, Phoebus, Rustburg or Staunton River.
