Good morning all. Happy Football Friday!
I was quite curious about some recent trends so I decided to look up some numbers. And since the First Round concluded last night, I was finally able to fill in the gaps this morning.
These stats pertain to First Round games over the last four seasons (with the last being Fall 2021). Some of you may find this interesting. Others may tell me to pound sand. Others may whine about outliers and crazy high blowouts. But at the end of the day, the stats are the stats. And I'm going to be bouncing all over the place here so please be patient.
So here we go.
Did you know that 2024 had the fewest number of First Round games with 88 since who knows when (not counting Spring of 2021?). Maybe since The Great Realignment? In the Fall of 2021 (I'll just call it 2021 from now on in this post), along with 2022 and 2023, we had 92 First Round Games. We have three 16-team brackets this season (there were four the prior seasons).
The average margin of victory for First Round games in 2024 was 25.53 points making this the second least competitive round in the past four seasons. 2023 has the least competitive First Round amongst the four seasons with an average margin of victory of 28.74 points. 2022 was the most competitive with an average margin of victory of 23.41 points. This was the only season of the four where First Round games averaged less than a three score game.
Three of the classifications this season had average margins of victory in 2024 at three scores or lower (Class 2, 4, and 5). Class 4 has the most competitive First Round with an average margin of victory at 21.17 points per game. Class 1 was Blowout Central with an average margin of victory at 33.14 points per game.
Did you know that it has actually been Class 5 that has had the most competitive First Round games in the last four seasons? They've averaged a three score game or less in three of the four seasons including a lowest average margin of victory of 18.21 points in 2022.
Meanwhile, Class 6 has been the least competitive as they have had averaged a three score game or less...in none of the last four seasons.
And in case you wanted to know, Classes 1, 2, and 4 have had margins of victory averaging three scores or less in two of the seasons with Class 3 having it in just one season (2022).
Fourteen of the 24 Classes (Six Classes + 4 Years = 24 Classes for 58.33% (work with me here people) had an average margin of victory of four scores or higher (over 24 points). Included is that is one Class with an average margin of victory of five scores or higher (over 32 points). That was Class 1 for this season.
Let's talk upsets. In 2021, we saw 23 of the 92 First Round games won by the lower seed. That's a whopping 25%. It was the big outlier though. This season, we saw just 14.77% of First Round games won by the lower seed (13 of 88) with four of those lower seeds winning in Class 5 (out of 14 games in the classification). 2024 had the lowest percentage of upsets in the last four seasons along with the fewest games won by a lower seed (13). 2022 had 14 games of 92 won by the lower seed (15.22%).
Interestingly enough, Class 5 has had the largest number of upsets the last two seasons with four lower seeds winning this season (28.57%) and six last season (in 42.86% of their classification's First Round games!).
And in the last four seasons, we haven't had a classification where there hasn't been at least one First Round upset. (Fewest upsets - 1 (4 times...including twice this season)) (Most upsets - 6 (once)).
There you go. Some numbers that some of you may find interesting. Others may find boring and irrelevant. I was curious about playoff blowouts and competitiveness. But we're actually seeing this around the country. And I was relieved to see that there were as many upsets as there were showing that almost anything can happen when you play the games.
I was quite curious about some recent trends so I decided to look up some numbers. And since the First Round concluded last night, I was finally able to fill in the gaps this morning.
These stats pertain to First Round games over the last four seasons (with the last being Fall 2021). Some of you may find this interesting. Others may tell me to pound sand. Others may whine about outliers and crazy high blowouts. But at the end of the day, the stats are the stats. And I'm going to be bouncing all over the place here so please be patient.
So here we go.
Did you know that 2024 had the fewest number of First Round games with 88 since who knows when (not counting Spring of 2021?). Maybe since The Great Realignment? In the Fall of 2021 (I'll just call it 2021 from now on in this post), along with 2022 and 2023, we had 92 First Round Games. We have three 16-team brackets this season (there were four the prior seasons).
The average margin of victory for First Round games in 2024 was 25.53 points making this the second least competitive round in the past four seasons. 2023 has the least competitive First Round amongst the four seasons with an average margin of victory of 28.74 points. 2022 was the most competitive with an average margin of victory of 23.41 points. This was the only season of the four where First Round games averaged less than a three score game.
Three of the classifications this season had average margins of victory in 2024 at three scores or lower (Class 2, 4, and 5). Class 4 has the most competitive First Round with an average margin of victory at 21.17 points per game. Class 1 was Blowout Central with an average margin of victory at 33.14 points per game.
Did you know that it has actually been Class 5 that has had the most competitive First Round games in the last four seasons? They've averaged a three score game or less in three of the four seasons including a lowest average margin of victory of 18.21 points in 2022.
Meanwhile, Class 6 has been the least competitive as they have had averaged a three score game or less...in none of the last four seasons.
And in case you wanted to know, Classes 1, 2, and 4 have had margins of victory averaging three scores or less in two of the seasons with Class 3 having it in just one season (2022).
Fourteen of the 24 Classes (Six Classes + 4 Years = 24 Classes for 58.33% (work with me here people) had an average margin of victory of four scores or higher (over 24 points). Included is that is one Class with an average margin of victory of five scores or higher (over 32 points). That was Class 1 for this season.
Let's talk upsets. In 2021, we saw 23 of the 92 First Round games won by the lower seed. That's a whopping 25%. It was the big outlier though. This season, we saw just 14.77% of First Round games won by the lower seed (13 of 88) with four of those lower seeds winning in Class 5 (out of 14 games in the classification). 2024 had the lowest percentage of upsets in the last four seasons along with the fewest games won by a lower seed (13). 2022 had 14 games of 92 won by the lower seed (15.22%).
Interestingly enough, Class 5 has had the largest number of upsets the last two seasons with four lower seeds winning this season (28.57%) and six last season (in 42.86% of their classification's First Round games!).
And in the last four seasons, we haven't had a classification where there hasn't been at least one First Round upset. (Fewest upsets - 1 (4 times...including twice this season)) (Most upsets - 6 (once)).
There you go. Some numbers that some of you may find interesting. Others may find boring and irrelevant. I was curious about playoff blowouts and competitiveness. But we're actually seeing this around the country. And I was relieved to see that there were as many upsets as there were showing that almost anything can happen when you play the games.
