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Predictions Friday's VHSL Region Playoff Review + Monday's Region Basketball Championship Picks (2/28/22)

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*** Follow 2021-22 VHSL Playoff Brackets Here ***

It's the final day of February and the excitement at the regional level for 2022 VHSL Playoff Basketball is nearing an end before State Quarterfinal games this weekend in March. Things were going pretty much according to form until last Friday when the zaniness reached a new level.

Three teams viewed as serious contenders for state titles - Kecoughtan and L.C. Bird in Class 5 as well as defending Class 1 Champ Parry McCluer - all went down in the semifinals to lower seeded squads. Let's review that and other notable results before getting to Monday night's Region Championship Picks across three divisions.


Friday Night Full of Surprises: Few could've expected some of the results we got on Friday as our picks hit a new low, just .500 at 13-13. Maybe leading the way in surprises was seventh-seeded Bayside, a program that this year had its 13th consecutive regular season finish under the .500 mark. Yet, here are the Marlins, now competing for a regional title in 5A after stunning second-seeded Princess Anne and then beating third-seeded Kempsville, 53-52. This marks their first State Tournament appearance since the 1990-91 when they won back-to-back Group AAA State Championships under Ron Jenkins.

Coach Martin Russ watched his son, senior point guard Landon Russ, hit the go-ahead free-throws with 1.4 seconds to go. While it was a bitter pill to swallow for Darren Sanderlin's Chiefs, who State Tournament aspirations of their own for the first time in program history behind senior PG Elijah White, they rallied late in the fourth quarter to take the lead. But Kempsville turned over the ball on an inbounds with a one-point lead with under a minute to go, plus missed the front-end of a one-and-one at the foul line that could've helped put the game away.

Besides that, no one could've seen Parry McCluer, a sizable favorite to repeat as State Champs in Class 1 because of the 6-foot-11 giant in the middle in Spencer Hamilton, bowing out before the Region 1C Final. Fort Chiswell bounced the Fighting Blues unexpectedly, 54-45. Not bad for a Pioneers program in its first season at the Class 1 level after playing previously in Class 2.

As Parry McCluer shot 0-for-11 from the field in the second quarter, they found themselves behind by a 30-12 count. As Championship level teams tend to do, they fought back and got within three with under two minutes to play. But Fort Chiswell hung on with the superb play of 6-foot-4 senior Siler Watson being a major reason why. Watson finished with a game-best 28 points.

Hamilton ended up just two blocks shy of a triple-double - 24 points, 10 rebounds and eight rejections - in his final game at Parry McCluer. He ended up his PM Career with 1309 points in 64 contests.

File this one in a stunning category, too. Highland Springs, which lost to L.C. Bird 79-69 back on December 22nd, knocked out the top-seeded Skyhawks in the Region 5B Semis. Bird was the favorite in some people's eyes (mine particularly) to win the Class 5 title with a big man inside in 6-foot-9 senior Keyontae Lewis, plus a pair of junior guards in A.J. Wills and Yuri Manns that can take over a game. The Springers outlasted Bird in a high-scoring first quarter, 23-22, then held them to eight points in each the second and third periods. By night's end, it was a very impressive and fairly decisive 61-49 win for the Springers, who played on their home floor.

Chock full of multi-sport athletes from football, Highland Springs got a 32-point effort from senior guard Dorian Davis, who really burst on the scene a couple of years ago as a sophomore when he lit up Norview (then an eventual co-State Champ with Green Run in Class 5) for 25 points on 6-of-8 shooting from behind the arc in a loss at King's Fork's showcase event. Davis is a lethal scorer and he and his teammates will have revenge on their minds when they take on Glen Allen, which beat them 49-48 back on January 12th.

Since that loss to the Jaguars, Highland Springs has won 13 of its past 15, including avenging a loss to Varina, one of the favorites to capture the Class 4 title.


Maury Pulls Off Improbable Rally: Brandon Plummer's Commodores are still alive, remarkably, to play for their second regional and state title in four years after a comeback for the ages. The former Booker T. Washington standout guard saw his team erase a 16-point second half deficit, including trailing by eight points with under two minutes to go, to stun third-seeded Woodside 63-62 in a wild Region 5B semifinal at Scope on Friday night.

Brian Alexander had 17 points in the last five minutes. Casey Jones nailed a huge three-pointers with 34 seconds to go to pull Maury within one. Finishing off the comeback was Cam Jones-Hood, named MVP in the VaPreps Classic back in January during their win over Miller School. Jones-Hood scored the go-ahead basket with 23 seconds remaining.

Woodside finished with more than 30 turnovers and a heart-breaker worse than the defeat they suffered to another Eastern District team, Lake Taylor, at the buzzer in the Bob Dandridge MLK Classic at Norfolk State back in January. That day, the Wolverines coughed up a 13-point lead.

Maury now gets to see second-seeded Menchville for the Region 5B title in what could certainly be the first of two meetings over the next week between the Tidewater programs.


Third Time’s A Charm: A trio of teams - Glen Allen, Manchester and Menchville - made the third encounter the most rewarding one against teams that had swept them during the regular season.

Glen Allen's Jaguars lost to Douglas Freeman 57-44 on December 7th and 61-49 on January 21st. But in the regional semis in 5B, senior guard Cliff Fuller came up with one of his best performances to date with 20 points, 18 after half-time, as they used a 9-0 run to open the fourth quarter and turn a deficit into a lead on their way to a 63-56 win over the Mavericks.

Menchville, meanwhile, was beaten by Kecoughtan 51-49 on a buzzer-beater on January 28th and 60-55 on December 10th in another battle that went down to the wire. Kecoughtan's offense was held below 60 points only three times all season. Once was in their season-opening loss to Woodside. Another was in the narrow win over Menchville in late January. The last time came in the 71-56 loss to Menchville at Norfolk Scope that halted their 20-game winning streak.

Etienne Strothers led the way for the Monarchs with 18 points as Menchville used an 11-0 run in the opening period to go up nine and steadily build their lead from there the rest of the way. Kecoughtan's outside shooting was kept in check by Menchville's defense.

Not only was it third time’s a charm for Menchville in its meeting with Kecoughtan, but the same was true for Manchester against James River. Only difference with those two is both the Rapids and the Lancers go on to the State Tournament, whereas the aforementioned Warriors are done.

Manchester - which lost to James River 62-56 on January 12th and 77-69 on February 7th - overcame nine three-point makes from the Rapids this time. Keying it was their aggressiveness in the paint, getting to the foul line and converting (15-of-20). Five-foot-6 point guard Jamel McDuffie made good reads on his way to an 11-point evening, and the ball got to the likes of front-court forces Makai Byerson (20 points) and Dante Kearse (15 points) when needed. Byerson, a 6-foot-4 sophomore, will be a heralded football prospect before he's done. Kearse, a 6-foot-4 junior forward, is a walking double-double who looks bigger than he's listed.


LoCo’s Enormous Comeback:
If you thought Maury's comeback was something else, wait until you hear about Loudoun County's against Loudoun Valley. Not long removed from falling to the Vikings in the Dulles District Tournament Finals, Mark Alexander's Captains beat Valley 61-57 in overtime after trailing by 13 in the third period.

Juniors Nick Alexander, Joey Fitzpatrick and Jack West stepped up in crunch time for Loudoun County. West had 20 points, Alexander added 15, and Fitzpatrick filled the stat sheet, most importantly coming up with a game-high four steals. As a team, Valley only had three steals the entire evening.

The loss didn't come without stellar contributions for the Vikings. Sophomore guard Jayden Johnson had 17 points and four assists. Senior big man Ben Hall (6'8") finished with a double-double of 15 points and 18 rebounds.

Don't be stunned to see these two Region 4C rivals run into each other again. For it to happen though, Loudoun Valley would need to knock off Region 4D Champ Western Albemarle on the road, whereas Loudoun County hosts Region 4D runner-up E.C. Glass.


Henrico Wins on Buzzer-Beater: Last off-season, Henrico went through a coaching change. Longtime decorated Head Coach Vance Harmon, who led the Warriors to a pair of state titles, returned to his alma mater of Douglas Freeman as the Athletic Director there. That led them to Nick Leonardelli, a former college coach who most recently was at UMass-Lowell.

Henrico, which didn't have a season in 2020-21, ended the regular season at 15-6 overall before a close win over Monacan by a count of 68-65 in the regional semis.

In the regional semis against Eastern View, the Cyclones led the Warriors 45-38 entering the fourth quarter. It appeared that Henrico's season would be coming to an end just a victory shy of the State Tournament in their first year at the Class 4 level after playing for several campaigns in Class 5.

Kyle Brand-Parker had a stick-back at the horn to give Henrico a 58-56 win over Eastern View. That ended a 20-game winning streak for the Cyclones, denying them a State Tournament spot.

Five-foot-10 junior guard Jaden Walker delivered with 21 points for Henrico, now set to take on Varina for the Region 4B crown.


John Marshall Invitational: In Class 2 basketball, it's John Marshall's world and the rest of us are just living in it to be honest.

The Justices won by an average of 42.3 points per game in regionals, thumping Greensville 85-41 in the Region 2A Championship.

Their only two in-state losses came to Class 6 schools: Landstown 63-61 in overtime, minus some key players that were out, and to unbeaten Hayfield by a count of 68-54.

JM has scored 100-plus on two separate occasions, including 101 on a Glen Allen team that is State Tournament bound in Class 5 after rallying to beat Douglas Freeman to reach the Region 5C Finals.

Over the years, Ty White - the director of the well-known Team Loaded AAU travel program - has produced his fair share of stars. Names such as Brian White, NBA player Isaiah Todd, Roosevelt Wheeler of Louisville are among the many that leap to mind. This current crop certainly isn't devoid of star power, including a Top 100 ranked junior swingman in Dennis Parker Jr. among other D-1 pieces dotting the rest.

The question at this point is: can anyone hang with them in March?

Radford won a squeaker with James River, 41-40. That gave Coach Rick Cormany his career win No. 748. The Bobcats have won six State Championships under Cormany and are known to defend at a high level. Can they score enough if it gets above to beat someone with the size and athleticism of Marshall? Hard to believe they can.

Defending State Champ Union is moving on to the State Playoffs, beating Marion and Tazewell by a combined 68 points before a 68-54 triumph over Virginia High in the Region 2D Finals. Still, this Bears team, even with reigning VHSCA Class 2 State Player of the Year Bradley Bunch leading the way, had more firepower last year with sharp-shooter Alex Rasnick and skilled forward Sean Cusano to complement their current marquee man.


... We'll hit on some of Saturday's storylines in a later VIP post. But let's get to tonight's matchups now after we update the prognosticating record to this point.


Saturday 2/26 Total: 7-2 (77.8%)
Hatfield's 2022 Region Playoff Total: 148-43 (77.5%)


VHSL MONDAY REGION CHAMPIONSHIP ACTION - 2/28/22:

Region 5B:
Finals at Norfolk Scope
#2 Maury (22-2; 19-2) vs. #4 Menchville (19-5)
Hat's Pick - Maury by 4


Region 5C: Finals at Highland Springs
#3 Glen Allen (18-4) at #4 Highland Springs (19-4)
Hat's Pick - Highland Springs by 6


Region 4B Finals: at Varina
#4 Henrico (17-6) at #2 Varina (21-1)
Hat's Pick - Varina by 13
 
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