I am sticking with Graham since I picked them to advance to the state semi's in early August after watching them scrimmage Glenvar. For Graham, they would be trying to advance to the semifinals after 2 years ago advancing to the final 16 and losing, and last year advancing to the final 8 and losing. They've improved by 1 game in the playoffs the last 2 years, so if they win, it's right on point with another 1 game improvement in the playoffs. For Union, they are trying to advance to the state-semi's for what would be the 2nd time in 3 years. This game comes down the first quarter, and unlike many games that are decided late. If Graham jumps out with explosive plays early and gets 2 early touchdowns, I think Union is in trouble as the confidence for the QB will build and Union will have to drop back more defenders against the pass allowing Graham to run it some or at least get a short passing game going. If this game is even or within 3 points either way at halftime, I think Graham's in trouble. The physicality of Union's line can really take hold like most lines do in the second half, but the one thing for Union that is different than their previous competition is the speed of Graham's back 7 on defense. Union is likely not going to get those explosive break away-long running plays with Mitchell or their running back. They may get some big chunks running, but this is a game in which the 75 yard touchdown run that would normally be housed only goes for 40 due to a Graham defender running down the Union football carrier which will force Union to carry out sustained drives instead of long bust out running plays.
I think this game comes down to the accuracy of Graham's QB and the ability to throw downfield. I heard he has improved as the season has progressed. Graham's WR's are fast and they will get separation, and it comes down to whether or not the QB throws the ball accurately. There's a huge difference in the outcome of the game decided only by inches, and in this case, imagine a Graham 2nd and 6 with a wide open WR only to be overthrown or underthrown or intercepted versus hitting the guy on the money and a touchdown. In order to win this game, Graham will have to have an accurate downfield passing game early on. They are not going to be successful with the QB taking a snap and rolling out and then outrunning the defense to the corner and getting big runs due to the QB maybe not making a great downfield read, but against a slower team like Marion, this may work, but against a team like Union that not only has good speed, but they have the defensive tackles to get penetration and blow up the line of scrimmage. This game is decided early, and whether or not Graham completes the passes downfield in which WR's will be open early in the game. If the QB throws the ball accurately, Union will get beat. If he doesn't, Graham's in trouble because they are not going to run the ball consistently in long sustained drives on Union's defense. Union will have success running some on Graham that will eat up the play clock, which will Graham limited possessions with that explosive and fast offense, which is why it's more critical for Graham to have the QB throwing the ball accurately early on in the game.
Should be a good one. I don't think this game will be that close either way, unlike most games with 2 good closely talent rich teams. I think Union is the kind of team that wears you down, and Graham still kind of has that mentality of imploding mentally if they are down, and Union could win this by 17 points. On the flip side, if the QB is on early, the WR's will be open and that explosiveness could account for a big lead requiring Union to play behind, and they are a run happy offense, and it's hard to play catchup if you are down early and are forced to start putting it in the air more than you would like, especially against a Graham secondary that is probably the fastest in the state. I think a 17 point win either way, and not a close game, or at least as close as we think. I'll pick Graham since I picked them in early August.