Interesting game here imo, more than you might think. History hasn't been kind in this match-up, in fact it's never been kind since Salem is 16-0 all-time against HV but once every 5 or so years HV puts a good scare into Salem so we're about due for one of those games.
HV's having their best team since the 8-2 squad in 2014 and is only a couple last-minute plays from good Northside and Blacksburg teams from being 7-1 right now. They spanked Pulaski by 21 points, putting up 35 against a PC defense that's only given up 76 points all season and gave the Cougars their only loss thus far. They bring a fairly balanced offense to the field which is exactly how you beat Salem but they also love to just step back and spray it downfield and if Salem's DBs, the most questionable part of the D, aren't on their game they could get roundly abused.
If this one becomes a shootout, look out. May or may not come to fruition but this one has some upset potential if Salem doesn't have their heads screwed on tight or if they're caught looking ahead to a possibly rivalry match-up of 8-1 teams against Pulaski.
e: just for discussion, the CalPreps prediction is only Salem 34 HV 22.
Well, this year's Hidden Valley squad looks as if they have the potential to at least be somewhat competitive with Salem, something no HV team has done since a 31-14 loss six years ago. In the five games in the series since, Salem has won by an average of over 43 points, while averaging almost 56 points (with a minimum of 45). Only once in the entire series history have the Titans had a
really good chance to win, that being in 2007, when they held a 20-7 lead with about seven minutes left to play (Salem rallied to win, 21-20). That game was played under near-monsoon conditions. The only other two occasions where HV stayed within seven points of Salem, in 2008 and 2011, were also marred by steady to heavy rains. I can remember a few other times when this game has been played in bad weather, which seems to be an odd quirk of this rivalry.
Clearly, history is
not on the side of Hidden Valley in this match-up, whether looking at the short-term, or long. And while I'm a firm believer that historic trends do mean something, we
are talking about 2019. The Titans
do seem to be pretty well balanced, judging strictly by the Roanoke Times' latest Timesland statistics. They have two backs averaging 71 and 66 yards per game, respectively. They also have a receiver to go along with, and take pressure off of, their good tight end, Mitchell. And their quarterback has good numbers. I think you are correct in your implication that the play of Salem's secondary will probably be the biggest factor in how this game goes. I thought Salem's defense, in particular the secondary, played very well against Cave Spring, which, it should be noted, is a flat-out awful team. A corner got burned deep once, which will happen. There were none of the blown coverages or misplayed 50-50 balls that have plagued Salem in just about every other game this season. Very heartening, but again - Cave Spring. I haven't seen Hidden Valley at all yet this year, but I know their offense will present much, much more of a challenge than did the Knights'. If they can keep the Spartans off-balance, convert on third down passes when necessary, protect their qb, and hold on to the ball for a while, then this one could definitely get interesting.
Where I see the Titans probably struggling this week is on the defensive end, and possibly special teams. Salem's running game is really starting to round into shape. The Spartans ran decently on even Martinsburg, but couldn't convert enough chances in the red zone (or ever slow up the Bulldogs) to stay in the game. The passing game continues to be an enigma. Salem is loaded with good receivers - Collins, Logan, both McDonalds, Ferris, Pinello, Wood out of the backfield - who aren't really catching that many passes. It's somewhat frustrating for the average fan in the stands (that would be me). However, with the team at 7-1, and me never having played organized ball, I'm not going to start complaining now about how things are done. Suffice it to say, Salem should have more speed and athleticism, and be able to put more weapons on the field, than any team Hidden Valley has seen thus far. I would love to see Persinger and Wood together in the backfield much more than we have. I think utilizing those guys in tandem will be crucial to how far Salem goes in the postseason, but we probably won't see much of that lineup at all until the playoffs - especially given how well Leftwich is playing. As for special teams, the Spartans have three or four return men that will be difficult for HV to keep under wraps all game (unless they just kick everything out of bounds). At any rate, if the offensive line continues its good work of late, I'm having trouble seeing how the Titans hold Salem to less than...well, I don't want to provide any bulletin board material. Let's just say I can't see how HV will hold Salem's point production to a level necessary for Titan success.
Salem has already beaten all three teams to which Hidden Valley has lost - Northside, Franklin County, and Blacksburg. Persinger was out for the entire Northside game due to concussion protocol; Salem's offense is in another gear with him at tailback. And Salem's win over Blacksburg was of the "more dominant than the final score would indicate" variety. I can't envision the Titans matching up better with the Spartans than they did with any of the teams to which they've lost. Unless Hidden Valley gets substantial help in the form of more bad weather, or an uncharacteristic spate of Spartan turnovers, ultimately, I think Salem will take this one by a comfortable margin. I was already wrong once this year, about the Martinsburg game; I
cannot be wrong again!
